Markets are fluid and subject to change as we all know - key is
to establish a methodology that fits with your beliefs. You
can also incorporate a hybrid approach with your portfolio by
position investing certain funds for longer term (accepting
volatility until EVIDENCE changes) and dedicating other funds to
short term trading. Those are decisions for each individual.
If you have yet to formalize an investing/trading approach
please take some time to formalize a template - you can always
adjust but it's best to have something in place. From there,
you should formulate a PLAN that entails your objectives.
Once a plan is in place, then you can refine down to which
specific securities you want to invest and/or trade. This is
a TOP DOWN approach that should be enacted PRIOR to looking for
trades. Just like a Football team(or any sports team) - the
General manager has a vision/approach on how he/she wants to build
a team. Then he/she hires a coach to devise a scheme around those
players to maximize their talents. Next, the coach puts
into place a weekly game plan (making necessary adjustments) before
finally selecting specific plays.
How does BPT come into this picture? Think of BPT like a
consultant/assistant coach who helps to make your job easier
along the way. We provide daily analysis of several markets
which helps to provide some guidance as to how we see things.
We also spend a considerable amount of time providing tips
and educational examples to help execute you plan. Think of
the DVT approach for swing trades and the nightly discussion of
charts involving patterns and candlesticks, etc. We
also scan for and offer trade suggestions (ideas) that we believe
are valid setups and we take time to review the triggered setups in
the following days. Partake in only the ideas that fit into
your plan and simply ignore ones that don't. Finally, we
spend time posting relevant comments and numerous charts every day
in the trading community relating to what transpiring during that
trading session and updating trade ideas.
not sure what you are asking - here's an image of the KISS
charts with the cycles and ATR's etc - we'll probably see a cycle
support show up sometime on the 130 min and 1/2 day but not yet.
ATR was lost last week on the 60 min and 130 min, and this
morning lost on the 1/2 day. Still holding on the daily, getting
close at 4130 approx
Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Aug 2022 at 10:08 am
"ATR was lost last week on the 60 min and 130 min, and this
morning lost on the 1/2 day. Still holding on the daily" -
answered my question. That's what I thought but wasn't sure.
Thanks!
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Jul 2022 at 01:35 pm
Steve, agree completely. Just thinking that maybe SMH good for a
short term trade since the ribbons are so wide on most time frames
and we are sitting on major support (very very slightly below).
Looking for an entry with a stop at today's lows.
Posted by pintopower on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:06 pm
It looks like to me on the hourly chart from the beginning of
September that the SPY is doing an ending diagonal down.
If my math is correct, it has four touches so far which would
indicate that perhaps one more low to about 356 or so. If it
does that then target on a breakout of the ending diagonal would be
approximately 381 ish.
Posted by pintopower on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:52 pm
Just testing how to post a chart from Thinkorswim. Pink
lines are ending diagonal; yellow oval would be hypothetical 5th
touch and light blue lines would be the Target. Let's see if
this test works?!
Posted by makarolya on 27th of Sep 2022 at 01:09 pm
Hi, Steve! I took SSO for long trade per system signal yesterday
and day before, and now wondering - is there a stop loss you
recommend? Do you announce stop loss when trades goes in the red? I
am still new to trading systems and trying to learn the underwater
currents. Thanks
They don’t do stop losses. They have first, second, and third
entires ( occasionally) and they buy twice as much at second entry,
3x on third entry. Their system is very effective if you take all
of the trades, not so much if you just take the ones you want. Hope
that helps.
Updated levels above - the June-July trendline was lost late
yesterday after numerous tests and this has given way to additional
selling as one would expect.
Support zone 3853-63 (watching for a reaction here) then
3842
we would lose the SEO traffic we currently get through Google -
all these blog posts get indexed on Google and could show up on
someone's search whenever they are searching for something - can
help us get random traffic - on Discord we lose that
We also use the search capability and I find posts from years
ago quite easily
the only way I'd be kind of okay with it is if we could have
some program that copied all the discord posts from the day and
duplicated them here
not saying we can't do that but we have too many irons in fire
at moment too much going to so it's not a big
priority
Other option that I mentioned to Matt would be that today's move
is a Wave A then B pullback (say 50%) then up again in Wave C prior
to Wave 5 down (this would close the 3758 gap the fundamental
posted)
Hello all, it's been a wild week and today the market had a nice
snap back rally from oversold conditions.
Regarding the reversion to mean systems:
The bear long that triggered on SPY and ES - is exiting on ES,
it's holding for SPY. We are going to exit the ES long
positions from the bear long.
Systems that are holding: SPY Bear Long, SPY QE 3.2 Exhaustion,
and ES Bear Exhaustion.
Just to be safe and because this market is still really
dangerous, we're going to exit 1/2 of the SPY QE 3.2 here in after
hrs and 1/2 of the ES Bear Exhaust. Plus those two systems are up
nicely because they first entered on Monday. I'll update the trade
tables shortly but here's the table showing systems.
by the way that bear long on ES is now positive overall with
current price above the average entry of the first and second
entries
none of the other systems will be exiting only the ES bear long
- and I'll probably elect to only exit 1/2 - but there will still
be plenty long with all the other systems open (SPY bear long, SPY
QE 3.2 washout, and ES Bear exhaustion)
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Top Down Approach Discussion and how to View BPT - Click on Title
Posted by steve on 13th of Jun 2020 at 01:48 pm
Markets are fluid and subject to change as we all know - key is to establish a methodology that fits with your beliefs. You can also incorporate a hybrid approach with your portfolio by position investing certain funds for longer term (accepting volatility until EVIDENCE changes) and dedicating other funds to short term trading. Those are decisions for each individual. If you have yet to formalize an investing/trading approach please take some time to formalize a template - you can always adjust but it's best to have something in place. From there, you should formulate a PLAN that entails your objectives. Once a plan is in place, then you can refine down to which specific securities you want to invest and/or trade. This is a TOP DOWN approach that should be enacted PRIOR to looking for trades. Just like a Football team(or any sports team) - the General manager has a vision/approach on how he/she wants to build a team. Then he/she hires a coach to devise a scheme around those players to maximize their talents. Next, the coach puts into place a weekly game plan (making necessary adjustments) before finally selecting specific plays.
How does BPT come into this picture? Think of BPT like a consultant/assistant coach who helps to make your job easier along the way. We provide daily analysis of several markets which helps to provide some guidance as to how we see things. We also spend a considerable amount of time providing tips and educational examples to help execute you plan. Think of the DVT approach for swing trades and the nightly discussion of charts involving patterns and candlesticks, etc. We also scan for and offer trade suggestions (ideas) that we believe are valid setups and we take time to review the triggered setups in the following days. Partake in only the ideas that fit into your plan and simply ignore ones that don't. Finally, we spend time posting relevant comments and numerous charts every day in the trading community relating to what transpiring during that trading session and updating trade ideas.
SPX Cycles - Do we
Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Aug 2022 at 09:55 am
SPX Cycles - Do we have a sell on all time frames except the daily now?
not sure what you are
Posted by matt on 22nd of Aug 2022 at 10:03 am
not sure what you are asking - here's an image of the KISS charts with the cycles and ATR's etc - we'll probably see a cycle support show up sometime on the 130 min and 1/2 day but not yet. ATR was lost last week on the 60 min and 130 min, and this morning lost on the 1/2 day. Still holding on the daily, getting close at 4130 approx
"ATR was lost last week
Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Aug 2022 at 10:08 am
"ATR was lost last week on the 60 min and 130 min, and this morning lost on the 1/2 day. Still holding on the daily" - answered my question. That's what I thought but wasn't sure. Thanks!
Trying to hold the S2
Posted by flredsox on 26th of Jul 2022 at 12:15 pm
Trying to hold the S2 Pivot, seems like a cat hanging on to the edge of a pool
Steve, agree completely. Just thinking
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Jul 2022 at 01:35 pm
Steve, agree completely. Just thinking that maybe SMH good for a short term trade since the ribbons are so wide on most time frames and we are sitting on major support (very very slightly below). Looking for an entry with a stop at today's lows.
Just hoping you caught those
Posted by steve on 1st of Jul 2022 at 01:41 pm
Just hoping you caught those AMD and NVDA shorts
yeah and I covered them
Posted by matt on 1st of Jul 2022 at 01:52 pm
yeah and I covered them again last night
why would the VIX not
Posted by Walt on 5th of May 2022 at 04:02 pm
why would the VIX not have reached 38-39 on a day like this?
Probably because of what Steve
Posted by rfa300 on 5th of May 2022 at 04:06 pm
Probably because of what Steve posted earlier. See below
maybe meaning a lot of
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 5th of May 2022 at 04:03 pm
maybe meaning a lot of room for it to run higher?
Thanks, Matt -- appreciate it.
Posted by mstaples37 on 25th of Oct 2021 at 05:05 pm
Thanks, Matt -- appreciate it. Looking forward to seeing those things you've been working on!
Steve, how does one access
Posted by bharvey96 on 30th of Sep 2020 at 01:35 pm
Steve, how does one access the "Ciovacco Historical Perspective Charts?" I would imagine you need to be a client?
He puts out a weekly
Posted by steve on 30th of Sep 2020 at 01:41 pm
He puts out a weekly video via Twitter on Friday Night
Hi Matt/steve, is today highly
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 16th of Jun 2020 at 09:18 am
Hi Matt/steve, is today highly likely to be a trend day?
ES Levels (9/30)
Posted by steve on 5th of Sep 2022 at 10:46 am
Downside: 3639 3620-26 3609-04 3594 3582-76 3563 3542 Upside: 3685 3709 3723-25 3744-57 3775-84 3793-3801 3817 3828
ES 3755 strong pivot pulling
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:59 pm
ES 3755 strong pivot pulling back
It looks like to me
Posted by pintopower on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:06 pm
It looks like to me on the hourly chart from the beginning of September that the SPY is doing an ending diagonal down. If my math is correct, it has four touches so far which would indicate that perhaps one more low to about 356 or so. If it does that then target on a breakout of the ending diagonal would be approximately 381 ish.
pintopower - the QQQs could
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:15 pm
pintopower - the QQQs could have completed wave C today of an expanded flat for Wave 4 - same with SPX - the next PULLBACK will tell the tale
Just testing how to post
Posted by pintopower on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:52 pm
Just testing how to post a chart from Thinkorswim. Pink lines are ending diagonal; yellow oval would be hypothetical 5th touch and light blue lines would be the Target. Let's see if this test works?!
This move down was not
Posted by mirhamedali on 29th of Sep 2022 at 11:15 am
This move down was not an ending diagonal. Doesn't meet the technical definition.
You passed with flying colors
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 05:00 pm
You passed with flying colors but not an ED - I will post my views
3684 pivot achieved - main
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 10:04 am
3684 pivot achieved - main target from the pivot support
Hi, Steve! I took SSO
Posted by makarolya on 27th of Sep 2022 at 01:09 pm
Hi, Steve! I took SSO for long trade per system signal yesterday and day before, and now wondering - is there a stop loss you recommend? Do you announce stop loss when trades goes in the red? I am still new to trading systems and trying to learn the underwater currents. Thanks
makarolya -this is covered in
Posted by matt on 27th of Sep 2022 at 01:55 pm
makarolya -this is covered in the FAQ etc, however check your email, I sent you a detailed email that should help you.
I would post my answer here but intra day we like to stay market focused - I can also post here later after the market, however check your email
They don’t do stop losses.
Posted by mdgfain on 27th of Sep 2022 at 01:22 pm
They don’t do stop losses. They have first, second, and third entires ( occasionally) and they buy twice as much at second entry, 3x on third entry. Their system is very effective if you take all of the trades, not so much if you just take the ones you want. Hope that helps.
Go to the systems tab
Posted by steve on 27th of Sep 2022 at 01:16 pm
Go to the systems tab above and read all such information. These are reversion to mean systems so make sure you understand completely
ES 3639 achieved
Posted by steve on 27th of Sep 2022 at 12:29 pm
ES 3639 achieved
ES levels updated yesterday
Posted by steve on 26th of Sep 2022 at 08:47 am
ES levels updated yesterday
ES nice bounce of the
Posted by steve on 23rd of Sep 2022 at 01:05 pm
ES nice bounce of the listed 3675 level
Support levels on ES around
Posted by steve on 22nd of Sep 2022 at 11:28 am
Support levels on ES around this area and just below.
ES Levels updated and comments
Posted by steve on 22nd of Sep 2022 at 09:18 am
ES Levels updated and comments from overnight below
looks like ES 3923 capped
Posted by retirefire on 21st of Sep 2022 at 03:11 pm
looks like ES 3923 capped it
ES attempting to bounce out
Posted by steve on 20th of Sep 2022 at 10:47 am
ES attempting to bounce out of the support zone 3864-3855 - if able to gain some traction then 3885 first level above
Taking some gains and trailing
Posted by steve on 20th of Sep 2022 at 11:07 am
Taking some gains and trailing stops on that bounce
Yes trail up stops further
Posted by steve on 20th of Sep 2022 at 11:55 am
Yes trail up stops further - this has some legs
thanks almost got stopped out
Posted by retirefire on 20th of Sep 2022 at 11:59 am
thanks almost got stopped out late to party.
ES stalled near first target
Posted by steve on 20th of Sep 2022 at 11:17 am
ES stalled near first target level posted 3885
ES first test of resistance
Posted by steve on 16th of Sep 2022 at 10:48 am
ES first test of resistance 3895 led to rejection
Updated levels above - the
Posted by steve on 16th of Sep 2022 at 09:00 am
Updated levels above - the June-July trendline was lost late yesterday after numerous tests and this has given way to additional selling as one would expect.
Support zone 3853-63 (watching for a reaction here) then 3842
Getting a reaction a posted
Posted by steve on 16th of Sep 2022 at 09:20 am
Getting a reaction a posted below 3863 for a bounce - all within downtrend until a previous level is reclaimed. As I said a few days, ago Buckle Up
ES Pivot around 3960 -
Posted by steve on 14th of Sep 2022 at 08:51 am
ES Pivot around 3960 - very loose and thin market so take heed in position sizing (down)
Hi Steve, the support numbers
Posted by imelhoe on 13th of Sep 2022 at 11:00 pm
Hi Steve, the support numbers don't look quite right.
Wish trading View had the
Posted by donkeyface on 12th of Sep 2022 at 10:22 pm
Wish trading View had the red/green s&r horizontals like StockCharts
Assuming these levels are updated for the new dec22 contracts? so much easier to just keep up with SPX cash levels.
SPX has another zone just
Posted by steve on 7th of Sep 2022 at 11:53 am
SPX has another zone just above at 3956-64 IF today's highs are reclaimed
Bulls in control above 3920-30
Achieved that target
Posted by steve on 7th of Sep 2022 at 01:06 pm
Achieved that target
Selling one SPY 11/18 386
Posted by srusso1 on 7th of Sep 2022 at 01:07 pm
Selling one SPY 11/18 386 call here
Likewise selling a 388 and
Posted by retirefire on 7th of Sep 2022 at 01:15 pm
Likewise selling a 388 and still holding some 380's 11/18 exp.
yes still holding some calls
Posted by srusso1 on 7th of Sep 2022 at 01:18 pm
yes still holding some calls see how this week ends ?
Nice bounce off support 3930
Posted by steve on 7th of Sep 2022 at 01:03 pm
Nice bounce off support 3930 on that pullback
Yes it is
Posted by srusso1 on 7th of Sep 2022 at 01:06 pm
Yes it is
The Bulls are the Captain
Posted by steverobin on 7th of Sep 2022 at 12:46 pm
The Bulls are the Captain now.
Bounced off the 3896-83 zone
Posted by steve on 6th of Sep 2022 at 10:41 am
Bounced off the 3896-83 zone and now Bulls need to reclaim 3928
ES back to VWAP
Posted by steve on 6th of Sep 2022 at 10:48 am
ES back to VWAP
Next level for Bulls to
Posted by steve on 6th of Sep 2022 at 11:05 am
Next level for Bulls to clear is 3940 and hold 3916 Support
Good call on 3940 resistance
Posted by steve on 6th of Sep 2022 at 12:33 pm
Good call on 3940 resistance
ES Support Now 3940 then
Posted by steve on 6th of Sep 2022 at 08:37 am
ES Support Now 3940 then 3922-28
Thanks Steve, have a nice
Posted by retirefire on 6th of Sep 2022 at 09:06 am
Thanks Steve, have a nice area below now if we open green, to monitor for Fridays new system entry's
The time component favors the
Expanded Flat
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 07:05 pm
The time component favors the gray option for a larger 4th wave the other option is for short term view of Wave 3 extending
Definitely - see sticky post
PCE FRIDAYseems to be a market mover
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 06:39 pm
Definitely - see sticky post above
discussed this before https://breakpointtrades.com/blog/post/374069/ we would lose
Ever consider a Discord group?
Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2022 at 06:06 pm
discussed this before
https://breakpointtrades.com/blog/post/374069/
we would lose the SEO traffic we currently get through Google - all these blog posts get indexed on Google and could show up on someone's search whenever they are searching for something - can help us get random traffic - on Discord we lose that
We also use the search capability and I find posts from years ago quite easily
the only way I'd be kind of okay with it is if we could have some program that copied all the discord posts from the day and duplicated them here
not saying we can't do that but we have too many irons in fire at moment too much going to so it's not a big priority
I have to run out and get some meds for my dad
Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2022 at 06:02 pm
still dealing with the residual effects of a recent ischemic stroke. The newsletter will be out a bit later than normal tonight
james roe here can code
Is anyone familiar with writing up strategies in TradingView? I ...
Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2022 at 05:57 pm
james roe here can code up for you
SPX 15 Views (2 Roadmaps shown) but will adjust if stronger
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 05:47 pm
$SPX - Chart Link- posted two different options here - both paths would lead to a test of the 200 Week MA (approx 3590).
The key to any view will be the NATURE of the next pullback and subsequent bounce
arun - refresh the blog
Expanded Flat
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 05:41 pm
arun - refresh the blog as I added comments
Expanded Flat
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 05:29 pm
$SPX - Chart Link
QQQ - Chart Link
Other option that I mentioned to Matt would be that today's move is a Wave A then B pullback (say 50%) then up again in Wave C prior to Wave 5 down (this would close the 3758 gap the fundamental posted)
You passed with flying colors
ES Levels (9/30)
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 05:00 pm
You passed with flying colors but not an ED - I will post my views
Systems update and trade notification
Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:48 pm
Hello all, it's been a wild week and today the market had a nice snap back rally from oversold conditions.
Regarding the reversion to mean systems:
The bear long that triggered on SPY and ES - is exiting on ES, it's holding for SPY. We are going to exit the ES long positions from the bear long.
Systems that are holding: SPY Bear Long, SPY QE 3.2 Exhaustion, and ES Bear Exhaustion.
Just to be safe and because this market is still really dangerous, we're going to exit 1/2 of the SPY QE 3.2 here in after hrs and 1/2 of the ES Bear Exhaust. Plus those two systems are up nicely because they first entered on Monday. I'll update the trade tables shortly but here's the table showing systems.
System trades update
Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:32 pm
here's the current prices on them: not bad actually considering everything
QQQ 60
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:28 pm
QQQ - Chart Link- took some hedges
pintopower - the QQQs could
ES Levels (9/30)
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:15 pm
pintopower - the QQQs could have completed wave C today of an expanded flat for Wave 4 - same with SPX - the next PULLBACK will tell the tale
when we do update the
Ever consider a Discord group?
Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:11 pm
when we do update the systems section - I would rather have a separate forum just for system trades
KISS stuff
Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:07 pm
showing the 4 time frames on SPX:
yesterday we had that Demark 9 on 1/2 day and 13 on the 130 min.
The 60 min had the amateur selling, which marked a nice low - price now logically stalling at the ATR here
We already do that -
It think it would be a good idea if we're ...
Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:59 pm
We already do that - all year long I have been saying which systems and parts we are exiting or entering
come on guys - if you are going to follow the systems, you need to also be disciplined about it and pay attention
ES 3755 strong pivot pulling
ES Levels (9/30)
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:59 pm
ES 3755 strong pivot pulling back
every system trade is up SPY
Open systems comments
Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:50 pm
every system trade is up
SPY bear long is now positive
SPY 3.2 is obviously very positive as it entered on Monday
ES bear exhaust is very positive as it entered on Monday
even ES bear long is positive
Open systems comments
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:46 pm
by the way that bear
Open systems comments
Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:45 pm
by the way that bear long on ES is now positive overall with current price above the average entry of the first and second entries
none of the other systems will be exiting only the ES bear long - and I'll probably elect to only exit 1/2 - but there will still be plenty long with all the other systems open (SPY bear long, SPY QE 3.2 washout, and ES Bear exhaustion)