Title: Top Down Approach Discussion and how to View BPT - Click on Title

Steve,  how does one access

Posted by bharvey96 on 30th of Sep 2020 at 01:35 pm

Steve,  how does one access the "Ciovacco Historical Perspective Charts?"  I would imagine you need to be a client?

He puts out a weekly

Posted by steve on 30th of Sep 2020 at 01:41 pm

He puts out a weekly video via Twitter on Friday Night

Hi Matt/steve, is today highly

Posted by kevindeng0727 on 16th of Jun 2020 at 09:18 am

Hi Matt/steve, is today highly likely to be a trend day?

Here's the statistics on all

McClellan Systems closed out

Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 04:30 pm

Here's the statistics on all 4 Index McClellan Bollinger Band stats. Mostly the same. Otherwise the data goes back much further on the SPX to 1980, but much less so on the others with the Russell data going back the least

McClellan Systems closed out

Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 04:10 pm

you can see the trades on SPX upper left and the IWM 2nd entry at the bottom right. Stats show the SPX. The IWM is similar

glad you find that useful, yes price got pretty close to that next pivot - let me rephrase that it did. that next Tick pivot is 4339, the high was 4337, so 2 points. I like to use +/- 3/5 points with those. The 4307 is now support since we are above it

the 9 EMA - too

SPY System update

Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 03:57 pm

the 9 EMA - too bad price won't be closing over it, it was above it 15 min ago.

as far as which systems? I've made that clear many times, I use both. I use the harder to enter a long position. For exiting that position I then I use the (easier to exit version ) to exit 1/2 the trade (usually the option) and keep long the ETF based on the one that holds longer as it makes more profit, and I place a stop at entry.

Updated view on this 60 min and MA ribbon

Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 03:19 pm

that's the look - it's hard to quantify that in a system with numbers, but visually is very obvious when you see the MA ribbon and BPT MA deluxe like that, and of course the 13 Demark was just icing on the cake

so I got the code

SPY System update

Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 01:35 pm

so I got the code update, ran the backtest back to 1995 testing the 7- 10 SMA along with the 7 - 10 EMA as short term exit

here's the results. The image, the area in gray is what we use the 8 SMA.  The test that made the most money was using the 10 SMA but max draw down goes away up for obvious reasons. 

The 8 SMA appears to be just slightly better than the 8 EMA. 

The 9 EMA is slightly better with an 11 profit favtor, and the 10 EMA is the best overall with a 12 profit factor and same max draw down.

Currently the 9 EMA on the SPY is 431.58, current price is now 431.14 and the high was 432.08 so it was above that intra day

go to Account on the website, click on SMS button

https://breakpointtrades.com/stats/alert_manager/ 

click on SMS preferences - you have to add membership, then it will have you input your phone number - you then have to check your phone for a code that the systems sends to you for verification, and you have to come back to that section and enter the verification code to confirm

those platforms need advancing issues

McClellan Systems

Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 01:26 pm

those platforms need advancing issues and declining issues for the instrument. I'm sure most have for NYSE but I doubt many have that for other indexes, but I have no idea honest you would have to check

yep that's a good point,

Question answered

Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 12:55 pm

yep that's a good point, you can do creative things using spreads etc, which I'm not an expert of, but yes

Question answered

Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 12:41 pm

someone asked me how could they trim a position if they only bought  1 option, that's true you can't split an option

that's why for options if you wish to have that 'trim' opportunity in the future do more than 1 option as your baseline multiple for the 1st entry. Remember I show 1 as a baseline structure, with the 2nd entry as double the 1st and the 3rd as triple the first.

1st, 2nd, 3rd entries: 1, 2, 3.  or 2, 4, 6, or 3, 6, 9, or 5, 10, 15 and so on following that 1,2,3 multiple - those are examples of following that multiple

it's whatever fits your risk profile and account size guys

currently on the SPY Trend/Pullback

SPY System update

Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 12:36 pm

currently on the SPY Trend/Pullback the aggressive exit version needs a close above the 8 day SMA to exit. Trying to get a hold of my programmer, I want him to add an EMA option to that, I want to also test the 8 and 9 EMA against that to see which is better. Price may be closing over the 8 or 9 EMA today but NOT the 8 SMA, so I wish to test that. If the 25 year history ends up favoring the EMA over the SMA I'll switch to that and send a trade alert out

hoping for some news soon on AAZZF - let's hope, would like to see a reversal from this downtrend

Update: Market update

Market update

Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 12:05 pm

$SPX - Chart Link- filled the gaparoo

I'm basically done with them

McClellan Systems

Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 11:51 am

I'm basically done with them for now. I have not committed to sending live trades yet, but said I would post them here, which I've bee doing

I'd say a large amount of them will overlap with the SPY system trades anyway

Market update

Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 11:48 am

$SPX - Chart Link- 5 min, price trying for that gap fill

$SPX - Chart Link- we blew through two TICK pivots today. The next one is so far up that it's not worth discussing at this stage, best to focus on that fill from yesterday and other stuff

SPY System update

Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 11:35 am

Quick update on yesterday's SPY system 1st entry

As you know we use both versions of the Trend/Pullback. I'll exit 50% of this system trade when the system at the top of this image exits, it's the one that is easier to exit to reduce risk. Even with today's rally the aggressive exit version will not be exiting, however it could do so tomorrow should the market be up slightly.

follow up on the new ones last night

Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 11:23 am

but even still, had one

McClellan Systems

Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 11:19 am

but even still, had one taken the Friday trade, the way I do these statistically is you use a base amount for the 1st entry so if your base is 2 options, the the 2nd entry is 4 options, 3rd entry would be 6. So in this case the doubled up position on the 2nd entry would still completely make the trade a nice winner as it was double the amount of the 1st, also even the 1st entry at this moment isn't far from Friday's close

NICE that you did options

McClellan Systems

Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 11:12 am

NICE that you did options instead. Again the fact that it was a 2nd entry was nice because you avoided the Monday drawdown from the first, so to me psychologically it was easier to take the trade since we avoided that 1st

McClellan Systems

Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 11:09 am

Nice trade on the SPX and IWM McClellan systems. The IWM especially was low risk as it took a 2nd entry yesterday 

these are likely to close out today

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