Title: Top Down Approach Discussion and how to View BPT - Click on Title

SPX Cycles - Do we

Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Aug 2022 at 09:55 am

SPX Cycles - Do we have a sell on all time frames except the daily now? 

not sure what you are

Posted by matt on 22nd of Aug 2022 at 10:03 am

not sure what you are asking - here's an image of the KISS charts with the cycles and ATR's etc - we'll probably see a cycle support show up sometime on the 130 min and 1/2 day but not yet.  ATR was lost last week on the 60 min and 130 min, and this morning lost on the 1/2 day. Still holding on the daily, getting close at 4130 approx

"ATR was lost last week

Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Aug 2022 at 10:08 am

"ATR was lost last week on the 60 min and 130 min, and this morning lost on the 1/2 day. Still holding on the daily"  - answered my question. That's what I thought but wasn't sure. Thanks! 

Trying to hold the S2

Posted by flredsox on 26th of Jul 2022 at 12:15 pm

Trying to hold the S2 Pivot, seems like a cat hanging on to the edge of a pool

Steve, agree completely. Just thinking

Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Jul 2022 at 01:35 pm

Steve, agree completely. Just thinking that maybe SMH good for a short term trade since the ribbons are so wide on most time frames and we are sitting on major support (very very slightly below). Looking for an entry with a stop at today's lows. 

Just hoping you caught those

Posted by steve on 1st of Jul 2022 at 01:41 pm

Just hoping you caught those AMD and NVDA shorts 

yeah and I covered them

Posted by matt on 1st of Jul 2022 at 01:52 pm

yeah and I covered them again last night

why would the VIX not

Posted by Walt on 5th of May 2022 at 04:02 pm

why would the VIX not have reached 38-39 on a day like this?

Probably because of what Steve

Posted by rfa300 on 5th of May 2022 at 04:06 pm

Probably because of what Steve posted earlier. See below

maybe meaning a lot of

Posted by kevindeng0727 on 5th of May 2022 at 04:03 pm

maybe meaning a lot of room for it to run higher?

Thanks, Matt -- appreciate it.

Posted by mstaples37 on 25th of Oct 2021 at 05:05 pm

Thanks, Matt -- appreciate it.  Looking forward to seeing those things you've been working on!

Steve,  how does one access

Posted by bharvey96 on 30th of Sep 2020 at 01:35 pm

Steve,  how does one access the "Ciovacco Historical Perspective Charts?"  I would imagine you need to be a client?

He puts out a weekly

Posted by steve on 30th of Sep 2020 at 01:41 pm

He puts out a weekly video via Twitter on Friday Night

Hi Matt/steve, is today highly

Posted by kevindeng0727 on 16th of Jun 2020 at 09:18 am

Hi Matt/steve, is today highly likely to be a trend day?

ES Levels (9/30)

Posted by steve on 5th of Sep 2022 at 10:46 am

Downside:   3639 3620-26 3609-04  3594 3582-76  3563 3542 Upside:   3685 3709 3723-25 3744-57  3775-84  3793-3801  3817 3828

ES 3755 strong pivot pulling

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:59 pm

ES 3755 strong pivot pulling back 

It looks like to me

Posted by pintopower on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:06 pm

It looks like to me on the hourly chart from the beginning of September  that the SPY is doing an ending diagonal down.  If my math is correct, it has four touches so far which would indicate that perhaps one more low to about 356 or so.   If it does that then target on a breakout of the ending diagonal would be approximately 381 ish.

pintopower - the QQQs could

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:15 pm

pintopower - the QQQs could have completed wave C today of an expanded flat for Wave 4  - same with SPX - the next PULLBACK will tell the tale 

Just testing how to post

Posted by pintopower on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:52 pm

Just testing how to post a chart from Thinkorswim.  Pink lines are ending diagonal; yellow oval would be hypothetical 5th touch and light blue lines would be the Target.  Let's see if this test works?!

This move down was not

Posted by mirhamedali on 29th of Sep 2022 at 11:15 am

This move down was not an ending diagonal. Doesn't meet the technical definition.

You passed with flying colors

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 05:00 pm

You passed with flying colors but not an ED - I will post my views 

3684 pivot achieved - main

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 10:04 am

3684 pivot achieved - main target from the pivot support 

Hi, Steve! I took SSO

Posted by makarolya on 27th of Sep 2022 at 01:09 pm

Hi, Steve! I took SSO for long trade per system signal yesterday and day before, and now wondering - is there a stop loss you recommend? Do you announce stop loss when trades goes in the red? I am still new to trading systems and trying to learn the underwater currents. Thanks

makarolya -this is covered in

Posted by matt on 27th of Sep 2022 at 01:55 pm

makarolya -this is covered in the FAQ etc, however check your email, I sent you a detailed email that should help you.

I would post my answer here but intra day we like to stay market focused - I can also post here later after the market, however check your email

They don’t do stop losses.

Posted by mdgfain on 27th of Sep 2022 at 01:22 pm

They don’t do stop losses. They have first, second, and third entires ( occasionally) and they buy twice as much at second entry, 3x on third entry. Their system is very effective if you take all of the trades, not so much if you just take the ones you want. Hope that helps. 

Go to the systems tab

Posted by steve on 27th of Sep 2022 at 01:16 pm

Go to the systems tab above and read all such information.  These are reversion to mean systems so make sure you understand completely

ES 3639 achieved 

Posted by steve on 27th of Sep 2022 at 12:29 pm

ES 3639 achieved 

ES levels updated yesterday 

Posted by steve on 26th of Sep 2022 at 08:47 am

ES levels updated yesterday 

ES nice bounce of the

Posted by steve on 23rd of Sep 2022 at 01:05 pm

ES nice bounce of the listed 3675 level 

Support levels on ES around

Posted by steve on 22nd of Sep 2022 at 11:28 am

Support levels on ES around this area and just below.    

ES Levels updated and comments

Posted by steve on 22nd of Sep 2022 at 09:18 am

ES Levels updated and comments from overnight below 

looks like ES 3923 capped

Posted by retirefire on 21st of Sep 2022 at 03:11 pm

looks like ES 3923 capped it

ES attempting to bounce out

Posted by steve on 20th of Sep 2022 at 10:47 am

ES attempting to bounce out of the support zone  3864-3855 - if able to gain some traction then 3885 first level above 

Taking some gains and trailing

Posted by steve on 20th of Sep 2022 at 11:07 am

Taking some gains and trailing stops on that bounce 

Yes trail up stops further

Posted by steve on 20th of Sep 2022 at 11:55 am

Yes trail up stops further - this has some legs 

thanks almost got stopped out

Posted by retirefire on 20th of Sep 2022 at 11:59 am

thanks almost got stopped out late to party.

ES stalled near first target

Posted by steve on 20th of Sep 2022 at 11:17 am

ES stalled near first target level posted 3885

ES first test of resistance

Posted by steve on 16th of Sep 2022 at 10:48 am

ES first test of resistance 3895 led to rejection 

Updated levels above - the

Posted by steve on 16th of Sep 2022 at 09:00 am

Updated levels above - the June-July trendline was lost late yesterday after numerous tests and this has given way to additional selling as one would expect.  

Support zone 3853-63 (watching for a reaction here) then 3842 

Getting a reaction a posted

Posted by steve on 16th of Sep 2022 at 09:20 am

Getting a reaction a posted below 3863 for a bounce - all within downtrend until a previous level is reclaimed.   As I said a few days, ago Buckle Up 

ES Pivot around 3960 -

Posted by steve on 14th of Sep 2022 at 08:51 am

ES Pivot around 3960 - very loose and thin market so take heed in position sizing (down) 

Hi Steve, the support numbers

Posted by imelhoe on 13th of Sep 2022 at 11:00 pm

Hi Steve, the support numbers don't look quite right. 

Wish trading View had the

Posted by donkeyface on 12th of Sep 2022 at 10:22 pm

Wish trading View had the red/green s&r horizontals like StockCharts

Assuming these levels are updated for the new dec22 contracts?   so much easier to just keep up with SPX cash levels.

SPX has another zone just

Posted by steve on 7th of Sep 2022 at 11:53 am

SPX has another zone just above at 3956-64 IF today's highs are reclaimed 

Bulls in control above 3920-30 

Achieved that target 

Posted by steve on 7th of Sep 2022 at 01:06 pm

Achieved that target 

Selling one SPY 11/18 386

Posted by srusso1 on 7th of Sep 2022 at 01:07 pm

Selling one SPY 11/18 386 call here

Likewise selling a 388 and

Posted by retirefire on 7th of Sep 2022 at 01:15 pm

Likewise selling a 388 and still holding some 380's 11/18 exp.

yes still holding some calls

Posted by srusso1 on 7th of Sep 2022 at 01:18 pm

yes still holding some calls see how this week ends ?

Nice bounce off support 3930

Posted by steve on 7th of Sep 2022 at 01:03 pm

Nice bounce off support 3930 on that pullback

Yes it is  

Posted by srusso1 on 7th of Sep 2022 at 01:06 pm

Yes it is  

The Bulls are the Captain

Posted by steverobin on 7th of Sep 2022 at 12:46 pm

The Bulls are the Captain now. 

Bounced off the 3896-83 zone

Posted by steve on 6th of Sep 2022 at 10:41 am

Bounced off the 3896-83 zone and now Bulls need to reclaim 3928

ES back to VWAP 

Posted by steve on 6th of Sep 2022 at 10:48 am

ES back to VWAP 

Next level for Bulls to

Posted by steve on 6th of Sep 2022 at 11:05 am

Next level for Bulls to clear is 3940 and hold 3916 Support 

Good call on 3940 resistance 

Posted by steve on 6th of Sep 2022 at 12:33 pm

Good call on 3940 resistance 

ES Support Now 3940 then

Posted by steve on 6th of Sep 2022 at 08:37 am

ES Support Now 3940 then 3922-28 

Thanks Steve, have a nice

Posted by retirefire on 6th of Sep 2022 at 09:06 am

Thanks Steve, have a nice area below now if we open green,  to monitor for  Fridays new system entry's

The time component favors the

Expanded Flat

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 07:05 pm

The time component favors the gray option for a larger 4th wave the other option is for short term view of Wave 3 extending 

Definitely - see sticky post above 

discussed this before 

https://breakpointtrades.com/blog/post/374069/

we would lose the SEO traffic we currently get through Google - all these blog posts get indexed on Google and could show up on someone's search whenever they are searching for something - can help us get random traffic - on Discord we lose that

We also use the search capability and I find posts from years ago quite easily

the only way I'd be kind of okay with it is if we could have some program that copied all the discord posts from the day and duplicated them here

not saying we can't do that but we have too many irons in fire at moment too much going to  so it's not a big priority 

I have to run out and get some meds for my dad

Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2022 at 06:02 pm

still dealing with the residual effects of a recent ischemic stroke. The newsletter will be out a bit later than normal tonight

james roe here can code up for you

SPX 15 Views (2 Roadmaps shown) but will adjust if stronger

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 05:47 pm

$SPX - Chart Link- posted two different options here - both paths would lead to a test of the 200 Week MA (approx 3590).

The key to any view will be the NATURE of the next pullback and subsequent bounce

arun - refresh the blog

Expanded Flat

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 05:41 pm

arun - refresh the blog as I added comments 

Expanded Flat

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 05:29 pm

$SPX - Chart Link

QQQ - Chart Link

Other option that I mentioned to Matt would be that today's move is a Wave A then B pullback (say 50%) then up again in Wave C prior to Wave 5 down (this would close the 3758 gap the fundamental posted) 

You passed with flying colors

ES Levels (9/30)

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 05:00 pm

You passed with flying colors but not an ED - I will post my views 

Systems update and trade notification

Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:48 pm

Hello all, it's been a wild week and today the market had a nice snap back rally from oversold conditions. 

Regarding the reversion to mean systems:

The bear long that triggered on SPY and ES - is exiting on ES, it's holding for SPY.  We are going to exit the ES long positions from the bear long.

Systems that are holding: SPY Bear Long, SPY QE 3.2 Exhaustion, and ES Bear Exhaustion. 

Just to be safe and because this market is still really dangerous, we're going to exit 1/2 of the SPY QE 3.2 here in after hrs and 1/2 of the ES Bear Exhaust. Plus those two systems are up nicely because they first entered on Monday. I'll update the trade tables shortly but here's the table showing systems. 

System trades update

Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:32 pm

here's the current prices on them: not bad actually considering everything

QQQ 60

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:28 pm

QQQ - Chart Link- took some hedges 

pintopower - the QQQs could

ES Levels (9/30)

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:15 pm

pintopower - the QQQs could have completed wave C today of an expanded flat for Wave 4  - same with SPX - the next PULLBACK will tell the tale 

when we do update the

Ever consider a Discord group? 

Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:11 pm

when we do update the systems section - I would rather have a separate forum just for system trades

KISS stuff

Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:07 pm

showing the 4 time frames on SPX: 

yesterday we had that Demark 9 on 1/2 day and 13 on the 130 min.  

The 60 min had the amateur selling, which marked a nice low - price now logically stalling at the ATR here

We already do that - all year long I have been saying which systems and parts we are exiting or entering 

come on guys - if you are going to follow the systems, you need to also be disciplined about it and pay attention 

ES 3755 strong pivot pulling

ES Levels (9/30)

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:59 pm

ES 3755 strong pivot pulling back 

every system trade is up SPY

Open systems comments

Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:50 pm

every system trade is up

SPY bear long is now positive

SPY 3.2 is obviously very positive as it entered on Monday

ES bear exhaust is very positive as it entered on Monday

even ES bear long is positive 

  

Open systems comments

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:46 pm

  

by the way that bear

Open systems comments

Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:45 pm

by the way that bear long on ES is now positive overall with current price above the average entry of the first and second entries

none of the other systems will be exiting only the ES bear long - and I'll probably elect to only exit 1/2 - but there will still be plenty long with all the other systems open (SPY bear long, SPY QE 3.2 washout, and ES Bear exhaustion)

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