Once again, the above video link provides an overview
referencing current stock market conditions relative to similar
past readings. This would be most relevant for position
investors (such as retirement accounts) to monitor on a weekly
basis.
This is NOT a
forecast just data points at this time. Continue to keep an
open mind and respect the message of the market.
Markets are fluid and subject to change as we all know - key is
to establish a methodology that fits with your beliefs. You
can also incorporate a hybrid approach with your portfolio by
position investing certain funds for longer term (accepting
volatility until EVIDENCE changes) and dedicating other funds to
short term trading. Those are decisions for each individual.
If you have yet to formalize an investing/trading approach
please take some time to formalize a template - you can always
adjust but it's best to have something in place. From there,
you should formulate a PLAN that entails your objectives.
Once a plan is in place, then you can refine down to which
specific securities you want to invest and/or trade. This is
a TOP DOWN approach that should be enacted PRIOR to looking for
trades. Just like a Football team(or any sports team) - the
General manager has a vision/approach on how he/she wants to build
a team. Then he/she hires a coach to devise a scheme around those
players to maximize their talents. Next, the coach puts
into place a weekly game plan (making necessary adjustments) before
finally selecting specific plays.
How does BPT come into this picture? Think of BPT like a
consultant/assistant coach who helps to make your job easier
along the way. We provide daily analysis of several markets
which helps to provide some guidance as to how we see things.
We also spend a considerable amount of time providing tips
and educational examples to help execute you plan. Think of
the DVT approach for swing trades and the nightly discussion of
charts involving patterns and candlesticks, etc. We
also scan for and offer trade suggestions (ideas) that we believe
are valid setups and we take time to review the triggered setups in
the following days. Partake in only the ideas that fit into
your plan and simply ignore ones that don't. Finally, we
spend time posting relevant comments and numerous charts every day
in the trading community relating to what transpiring during that
trading session and updating trade ideas.
One trader/portfolio manager yesterday brought an interesting
viewpoint that the Fed will have to capitulate markets instead of
having some moment in time where we selloff in a flush for the same
reasons. And right now I agree, in this moment in time and at this
pricepoint, it should be harder for the market to go down because
there is no new information for it to do so. Other than sentiment,
if it chooses to relive the same trauma again and again. We saw
this behavior with the war prior, it was staying down and down on
the war, and inflation, etc. Then there came a point where it just
couldn't go down on that news anymore. It unleashed a massive rally
from the 4,100s-4,600s. Like 12% just looking at it
roughly.
We know it is bad, we know we have inflation, we know the Fed
tightened rates, and is talking tough, and will likely do more. We
have had real change though in terms of prices in a short period of
time and there is a pocket here where I think people get offsides
in believing the market will never rally again. Just like in
bullish times, when anyone looks like a genius just buying
anything, this is a time where just yelling sell as been rewarded
for months. I continue to believe we are in a bottoming process or
higher lows, trade lows. Yesterday cracked me up, market went down
to 3,909 and didn't fill the 3,901 gap.
Games being played by computers. This is a casino. I'll play
their game though and keep hedging for trades until they change
their tune. Frankly exhausting, though that is what the market
wants, to exhaust people, and steal their shares and money on both
sides. I believe there is psychology built into the algos and
technology is being used along with media stories that creates this
whole land of Oz. Makes an even better case for just focusing on
price and not all the chatter. Back to what matters, what is price
saying right now? Well right now, we have a higher low until we
don't. Risk/reward. Be flexible when markets change.
Posted by timebandit on 24th of May 2022 at 12:05 am
$BPGDM- moved down today diverging negatively from $GDX. Does have a
positive divergence on CCI. Also, getting fairly low. Can go lower,
but could also reverse at any point
here's the updated view of that ES chart I posted last night. I
didn't adjust any of the trendlines - ES fell through that support
fell about 20 points, then bounced again near that open gap and is
currently sitting almost around where I posted it last night, and
here's the Live URL
Posted by fredsaid on 23rd of May 2022 at 10:50 pm
Fantastic newsletter in a difficult tape. Here's what's
clear to me (I think ha)). One more test down with a higher low
inside the channels, then a 2-4 week rally (max?) that will end
with a fantastic short. Safe to buy long after channel break
AND retest in the sort term. ;) ITS MADNESS I TELL YOU :) $,
Commodities, Yields, Bonds, HYG and maybe even Crypto act
indifferent during this rally other than confirmation of correlated
short term directions. If Monday was just another bear
bounce, those blog views of BTC dropping as early warning will
prove monumentil in my trade tomorrow. Love this joint !
Posted by James_Roe on 23rd of May 2022 at 11:20 pm
We've looked at this in the past, it's a feature I would like to
add, it would require writing some new views so you could sort by
popularity, and some database optimizing.
Not sure it's a priority in the next few months, but after we've
addressed a few things we're working on it's something I'd like to
come back to.
Posted by fredsaid on 23rd of May 2022 at 11:58 pm
Then you the man with the master plan and I'm just a fan !
Matt and the boyz been working you to the bone (that's an 80s
orignal house track) ! Site security is job 1. Then
enhancements. Then bugs ... enhancements ahead of bugs ?
wtf ?!? ;)
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
Top Down Approach Discussion and how to View BPT - Click on Title
Posted by steve on 13th of Jun 2020 at 01:48 pm
Ciovacco Historical Perspective Charts
Once again, the above video link provides an overview referencing current stock market conditions relative to similar past readings. This would be most relevant for position investors (such as retirement accounts) to monitor on a weekly basis. This is NOT a forecast just data points at this time. Continue to keep an open mind and respect the message of the market.
Markets are fluid and subject to change as we all know - key is to establish a methodology that fits with your beliefs. You can also incorporate a hybrid approach with your portfolio by position investing certain funds for longer term (accepting volatility until EVIDENCE changes) and dedicating other funds to short term trading. Those are decisions for each individual. If you have yet to formalize an investing/trading approach please take some time to formalize a template - you can always adjust but it's best to have something in place. From there, you should formulate a PLAN that entails your objectives. Once a plan is in place, then you can refine down to which specific securities you want to invest and/or trade. This is a TOP DOWN approach that should be enacted PRIOR to looking for trades. Just like a Football team(or any sports team) - the General manager has a vision/approach on how he/she wants to build a team. Then he/she hires a coach to devise a scheme around those players to maximize their talents. Next, the coach puts into place a weekly game plan (making necessary adjustments) before finally selecting specific plays.
How does BPT come into this picture? Think of BPT like a consultant/assistant coach who helps to make your job easier along the way. We provide daily analysis of several markets which helps to provide some guidance as to how we see things. We also spend a considerable amount of time providing tips and educational examples to help execute you plan. Think of the DVT approach for swing trades and the nightly discussion of charts involving patterns and candlesticks, etc. We also scan for and offer trade suggestions (ideas) that we believe are valid setups and we take time to review the triggered setups in the following days. Partake in only the ideas that fit into your plan and simply ignore ones that don't. Finally, we spend time posting relevant comments and numerous charts every day in the trading community relating to what transpiring during that trading session and updating trade ideas.
why would the VIX not
Posted by Walt on 5th of May 2022 at 04:02 pm
why would the VIX not have reached 38-39 on a day like this?
Probably because of what Steve
Posted by rfa300 on 5th of May 2022 at 04:06 pm
Probably because of what Steve posted earlier. See below
maybe meaning a lot of
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 5th of May 2022 at 04:03 pm
maybe meaning a lot of room for it to run higher?
Thanks, Matt -- appreciate it.
Posted by mstaples37 on 25th of Oct 2021 at 05:05 pm
Thanks, Matt -- appreciate it. Looking forward to seeing those things you've been working on!
Steve, how does one access
Posted by bharvey96 on 30th of Sep 2020 at 01:35 pm
Steve, how does one access the "Ciovacco Historical Perspective Charts?" I would imagine you need to be a client?
He puts out a weekly
Posted by steve on 30th of Sep 2020 at 01:41 pm
He puts out a weekly video via Twitter on Friday Night
Hi Matt/steve, is today highly
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 16th of Jun 2020 at 09:18 am
Hi Matt/steve, is today highly likely to be a trend day?
Happy 50th Birthday Matt.
Posted by coolhat on 24th of May 2022 at 08:18 am
Happy 50th Birthday Matt.
Happy 50th Matt; Enjoy the
Posted by cozz101 on 24th of May 2022 at 08:16 am
Happy 50th Matt; Enjoy the Day!!
Best wishes on your 50th
Posted by craigm on 24th of May 2022 at 08:15 am
Best wishes on your 50th birthday Matt!
Interesting confidence information here, see
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 24th of May 2022 at 07:59 am
Interesting confidence information here, see the attached photo. Pretty extreme in terms of bearishness right now.
Fear and greed now at 14, was at 6 prior when we were in lower 3,800s before moving up: https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
One trader/portfolio manager yesterday brought an interesting viewpoint that the Fed will have to capitulate markets instead of having some moment in time where we selloff in a flush for the same reasons. And right now I agree, in this moment in time and at this pricepoint, it should be harder for the market to go down because there is no new information for it to do so. Other than sentiment, if it chooses to relive the same trauma again and again. We saw this behavior with the war prior, it was staying down and down on the war, and inflation, etc. Then there came a point where it just couldn't go down on that news anymore. It unleashed a massive rally from the 4,100s-4,600s. Like 12% just looking at it roughly.
We know it is bad, we know we have inflation, we know the Fed tightened rates, and is talking tough, and will likely do more. We have had real change though in terms of prices in a short period of time and there is a pocket here where I think people get offsides in believing the market will never rally again. Just like in bullish times, when anyone looks like a genius just buying anything, this is a time where just yelling sell as been rewarded for months. I continue to believe we are in a bottoming process or higher lows, trade lows. Yesterday cracked me up, market went down to 3,909 and didn't fill the 3,901 gap.
Games being played by computers. This is a casino. I'll play their game though and keep hedging for trades until they change their tune. Frankly exhausting, though that is what the market wants, to exhaust people, and steal their shares and money on both sides. I believe there is psychology built into the algos and technology is being used along with media stories that creates this whole land of Oz. Makes an even better case for just focusing on price and not all the chatter. Back to what matters, what is price saying right now? Well right now, we have a higher low until we don't. Risk/reward. Be flexible when markets change.
nice post
Posted by alseq on 24th of May 2022 at 08:55 am
nice post
Happy Birthday Matt! Hope you
Posted by tmladucky on 24th of May 2022 at 07:37 am
Happy Birthday Matt! Hope you enjoy the day!
Happy 50th Matt!!
Posted by arun on 24th of May 2022 at 07:25 am
Happy 50th Matt!!
Happy Birthday Matt all the
Posted by alseq on 24th of May 2022 at 06:56 am
Happy Birthday Matt all the best
Happy 50th Birthday Matt !
Posted by fredsaid on 24th of May 2022 at 12:43 am
Happy 50th Birthday Matt ! Learned today that I'm about 6 mos older than you....very interesting. Congratuations on crossing the bridge sir ! lol
I'm 50 next year -
Posted by crossharry on 24th of May 2022 at 08:18 am
I'm 50 next year - something I never saw coming in my wildest dreams - expecting fire and brimstone and the earth to swallow me whole...
Happy Birthday! My71st was two
Posted by skyfish on 24th of May 2022 at 01:53 am
Happy Birthday! My71st was two days ago.
Happy Birthday Matt and a
Posted by steve on 24th of May 2022 at 08:10 am
Happy Birthday Matt and a belated one to you Skyfish
Yes, Happy Birthday
Posted by flredsox on 24th of May 2022 at 08:14 am
Yes, Happy Birthday
Rubble:Euro Monthly ....
Posted by mla127 on 24th of May 2022 at 12:29 am
Rubble:Euro Monthly ....
wow... are those years on
Posted by fredsaid on 24th of May 2022 at 12:42 am
wow... are those years on the x axis ? I'm old and drunk .. oh shit just remembered - Happy Birthday Matt !
$BPGDM - moved down today diverging
Posted by timebandit on 24th of May 2022 at 12:05 am
$BPGDM - moved down today diverging negatively from $GDX. Does have a positive divergence on CCI. Also, getting fairly low. Can go lower, but could also reverse at any point
ES futures
Posted by matt on 23rd of May 2022 at 11:12 pm
here's a link to the live view with my trendlines
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/eAeTd6zj/
here's the updated view of
Posted by matt on 24th of May 2022 at 08:59 am
here's the updated view of that ES chart I posted last night. I didn't adjust any of the trendlines - ES fell through that support fell about 20 points, then bounced again near that open gap and is currently sitting almost around where I posted it last night, and here's the Live URL
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/eAeTd6zj/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/eAeTd6zj/ Live Chart
Posted by matt on 24th of May 2022 at 09:30 am
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/eAeTd6zj/ Live Chart
ES filled that gap https://www.tradingview.com/chart/eAeTd6zj/
Posted by matt on 24th of May 2022 at 10:07 am
ES filled that gap
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/eAeTd6zj/
here's the Bitcoin chart -
Posted by matt on 24th of May 2022 at 09:00 am
here's the Bitcoin chart - still mostly stable in that channel
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/eAeTd6zj/
Great link. Looks VERY inverse
Posted by fredsaid on 23rd of May 2022 at 11:52 pm
Great link. Looks VERY inverse HnS ish. this is what has been pestering me.
Fantastic newsletter in a difficult
Posted by fredsaid on 23rd of May 2022 at 10:50 pm
Fantastic newsletter in a difficult tape. Here's what's clear to me (I think ha)). One more test down with a higher low inside the channels, then a 2-4 week rally (max?) that will end with a fantastic short. Safe to buy long after channel break AND retest in the sort term. ;) ITS MADNESS I TELL YOU :) $, Commodities, Yields, Bonds, HYG and maybe even Crypto act indifferent during this rally other than confirmation of correlated short term directions. If Monday was just another bear bounce, those blog views of BTC dropping as early warning will prove monumentil in my trade tomorrow. Love this joint !
Voting buttons for blog posts
Posted by fredsaid on 23rd of May 2022 at 10:15 pm
Voting buttons for blog posts - would be great on this site !
We've looked at this in
Posted by James_Roe on 23rd of May 2022 at 11:20 pm
We've looked at this in the past, it's a feature I would like to add, it would require writing some new views so you could sort by popularity, and some database optimizing.
Not sure it's a priority in the next few months, but after we've addressed a few things we're working on it's something I'd like to come back to.
Then you the man with
Posted by fredsaid on 23rd of May 2022 at 11:58 pm
Then you the man with the master plan and I'm just a fan ! Matt and the boyz been working you to the bone (that's an 80s orignal house track) ! Site security is job 1. Then enhancements. Then bugs ... enhancements ahead of bugs ? wtf ?!? ;)
Monday's Newsletter
Posted by matt on 23rd of May 2022 at 09:01 pm
Monday's Newsletter
Snap 8-K Shows Co. Warns
Posted by steve on 23rd of May 2022 at 06:40 pm
Snap 8-K Shows Co. Warns 'macroeconomic environment has deteriorated further and faster than anticipated' Since Co. Issued Guidance At End Of Apr.
Futures already down 36
Posted by lamb on 23rd of May 2022 at 06:37 pm
Futures already down 36
Large AH drop in SNAP
Posted by focus175 on 23rd of May 2022 at 05:30 pm
Large AH drop in SNAP after revised earnings and estimates https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/23/snap-shares-fall-as-ceo-says-company-will-miss-revenue-and-earnings-estimates-plans-to-slow-hiring.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.PostToTwitter.
FB joining the downdraft out
Posted by timebandit on 23rd of May 2022 at 05:45 pm
FB joining the downdraft out of sympathy, dropping 15+ points so far
JPM--- still looks promising
Posted by watcdy on 23rd of May 2022 at 05:17 pm
JPM--- still looks promising
ZM beat and trading higher
Posted by steve on 23rd of May 2022 at 04:18 pm
ZM beat and trading higher after hours
NQ 15 min inverse h
Posted by kobie on 23rd of May 2022 at 04:10 pm
NQ 15 min inverse h & s.......