The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.

Title: Top Down Approach Discussion and how to View BPT - Click on Title

SPX Cycles - Do we

Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Aug 2022 at 09:55 am

SPX Cycles - Do we have a sell on all time frames except the daily now? 

not sure what you are

Posted by matt on 22nd of Aug 2022 at 10:03 am

not sure what you are asking - here's an image of the KISS charts with the cycles and ATR's etc - we'll probably see a cycle support show up sometime on the 130 min and 1/2 day but not yet.  ATR was lost last week on the 60 min and 130 min, and this morning lost on the 1/2 day. Still holding on the daily, getting close at 4130 approx

"ATR was lost last week

Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Aug 2022 at 10:08 am

"ATR was lost last week on the 60 min and 130 min, and this morning lost on the 1/2 day. Still holding on the daily"  - answered my question. That's what I thought but wasn't sure. Thanks! 

Trying to hold the S2

Posted by flredsox on 26th of Jul 2022 at 12:15 pm

Trying to hold the S2 Pivot, seems like a cat hanging on to the edge of a pool

Steve, agree completely. Just thinking

Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Jul 2022 at 01:35 pm

Steve, agree completely. Just thinking that maybe SMH good for a short term trade since the ribbons are so wide on most time frames and we are sitting on major support (very very slightly below). Looking for an entry with a stop at today's lows. 

Just hoping you caught those

Posted by steve on 1st of Jul 2022 at 01:41 pm

Just hoping you caught those AMD and NVDA shorts 

yeah and I covered them

Posted by matt on 1st of Jul 2022 at 01:52 pm

yeah and I covered them again last night

why would the VIX not

Posted by Walt on 5th of May 2022 at 04:02 pm

why would the VIX not have reached 38-39 on a day like this?

Probably because of what Steve

Posted by rfa300 on 5th of May 2022 at 04:06 pm

Probably because of what Steve posted earlier. See below

maybe meaning a lot of

Posted by kevindeng0727 on 5th of May 2022 at 04:03 pm

maybe meaning a lot of room for it to run higher?

Thanks, Matt -- appreciate it.

Posted by mstaples37 on 25th of Oct 2021 at 05:05 pm

Thanks, Matt -- appreciate it.  Looking forward to seeing those things you've been working on!

Steve,  how does one access

Posted by bharvey96 on 30th of Sep 2020 at 01:35 pm

Steve,  how does one access the "Ciovacco Historical Perspective Charts?"  I would imagine you need to be a client?

He puts out a weekly

Posted by steve on 30th of Sep 2020 at 01:41 pm

He puts out a weekly video via Twitter on Friday Night

Hi Matt/steve, is today highly

Posted by kevindeng0727 on 16th of Jun 2020 at 09:18 am

Hi Matt/steve, is today highly likely to be a trend day?

ES Levels (9/30)

Posted by steve on 5th of Sep 2022 at 10:46 am

Downside:   3639 3620-26 3609-04  3594 3582-76  3563 3542 Upside:   3685 3709 3723-25 3744-57  3775-84  3793-3801  3817 3828

ES 3755 strong pivot pulling

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:59 pm

ES 3755 strong pivot pulling back 

It looks like to me

Posted by pintopower on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:06 pm

It looks like to me on the hourly chart from the beginning of September  that the SPY is doing an ending diagonal down.  If my math is correct, it has four touches so far which would indicate that perhaps one more low to about 356 or so.   If it does that then target on a breakout of the ending diagonal would be approximately 381 ish.

pintopower - the QQQs could

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:15 pm

pintopower - the QQQs could have completed wave C today of an expanded flat for Wave 4  - same with SPX - the next PULLBACK will tell the tale 

Just testing how to post

Posted by pintopower on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:52 pm

Just testing how to post a chart from Thinkorswim.  Pink lines are ending diagonal; yellow oval would be hypothetical 5th touch and light blue lines would be the Target.  Let's see if this test works?!

This move down was not

Posted by mirhamedali on 29th of Sep 2022 at 11:15 am

This move down was not an ending diagonal. Doesn't meet the technical definition.

You passed with flying colors

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 05:00 pm

You passed with flying colors but not an ED - I will post my views 

3684 pivot achieved - main

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 10:04 am

3684 pivot achieved - main target from the pivot support 

Hi, Steve! I took SSO

Posted by makarolya on 27th of Sep 2022 at 01:09 pm

Hi, Steve! I took SSO for long trade per system signal yesterday and day before, and now wondering - is there a stop loss you recommend? Do you announce stop loss when trades goes in the red? I am still new to trading systems and trying to learn the underwater currents. Thanks

makarolya -this is covered in

Posted by matt on 27th of Sep 2022 at 01:55 pm

makarolya -this is covered in the FAQ etc, however check your email, I sent you a detailed email that should help you.

I would post my answer here but intra day we like to stay market focused - I can also post here later after the market, however check your email

They don’t do stop losses.

Posted by mdgfain on 27th of Sep 2022 at 01:22 pm

They don’t do stop losses. They have first, second, and third entires ( occasionally) and they buy twice as much at second entry, 3x on third entry. Their system is very effective if you take all of the trades, not so much if you just take the ones you want. Hope that helps. 

Go to the systems tab

Posted by steve on 27th of Sep 2022 at 01:16 pm

Go to the systems tab above and read all such information.  These are reversion to mean systems so make sure you understand completely

ES 3639 achieved 

Posted by steve on 27th of Sep 2022 at 12:29 pm

ES 3639 achieved 

ES levels updated yesterday 

Posted by steve on 26th of Sep 2022 at 08:47 am

ES levels updated yesterday 

ES nice bounce of the

Posted by steve on 23rd of Sep 2022 at 01:05 pm

ES nice bounce of the listed 3675 level 

Support levels on ES around

Posted by steve on 22nd of Sep 2022 at 11:28 am

Support levels on ES around this area and just below.    

ES Levels updated and comments

Posted by steve on 22nd of Sep 2022 at 09:18 am

ES Levels updated and comments from overnight below 

looks like ES 3923 capped

Posted by retirefire on 21st of Sep 2022 at 03:11 pm

looks like ES 3923 capped it

ES attempting to bounce out

Posted by steve on 20th of Sep 2022 at 10:47 am

ES attempting to bounce out of the support zone  3864-3855 - if able to gain some traction then 3885 first level above 

Taking some gains and trailing

Posted by steve on 20th of Sep 2022 at 11:07 am

Taking some gains and trailing stops on that bounce 

Yes trail up stops further

Posted by steve on 20th of Sep 2022 at 11:55 am

Yes trail up stops further - this has some legs 

thanks almost got stopped out

Posted by retirefire on 20th of Sep 2022 at 11:59 am

thanks almost got stopped out late to party.

ES stalled near first target

Posted by steve on 20th of Sep 2022 at 11:17 am

ES stalled near first target level posted 3885

ES first test of resistance

Posted by steve on 16th of Sep 2022 at 10:48 am

ES first test of resistance 3895 led to rejection 

Updated levels above - the

Posted by steve on 16th of Sep 2022 at 09:00 am

Updated levels above - the June-July trendline was lost late yesterday after numerous tests and this has given way to additional selling as one would expect.  

Support zone 3853-63 (watching for a reaction here) then 3842 

Getting a reaction a posted

Posted by steve on 16th of Sep 2022 at 09:20 am

Getting a reaction a posted below 3863 for a bounce - all within downtrend until a previous level is reclaimed.   As I said a few days, ago Buckle Up 

ES Pivot around 3960 -

Posted by steve on 14th of Sep 2022 at 08:51 am

ES Pivot around 3960 - very loose and thin market so take heed in position sizing (down) 

Hi Steve, the support numbers

Posted by imelhoe on 13th of Sep 2022 at 11:00 pm

Hi Steve, the support numbers don't look quite right. 

Wish trading View had the

Posted by donkeyface on 12th of Sep 2022 at 10:22 pm

Wish trading View had the red/green s&r horizontals like StockCharts

Assuming these levels are updated for the new dec22 contracts?   so much easier to just keep up with SPX cash levels.

SPX has another zone just

Posted by steve on 7th of Sep 2022 at 11:53 am

SPX has another zone just above at 3956-64 IF today's highs are reclaimed 

Bulls in control above 3920-30 

Achieved that target 

Posted by steve on 7th of Sep 2022 at 01:06 pm

Achieved that target 

Selling one SPY 11/18 386

Posted by srusso1 on 7th of Sep 2022 at 01:07 pm

Selling one SPY 11/18 386 call here

Likewise selling a 388 and

Posted by retirefire on 7th of Sep 2022 at 01:15 pm

Likewise selling a 388 and still holding some 380's 11/18 exp.

yes still holding some calls

Posted by srusso1 on 7th of Sep 2022 at 01:18 pm

yes still holding some calls see how this week ends ?

Nice bounce off support 3930

Posted by steve on 7th of Sep 2022 at 01:03 pm

Nice bounce off support 3930 on that pullback

Yes it is  

Posted by srusso1 on 7th of Sep 2022 at 01:06 pm

Yes it is  

The Bulls are the Captain

Posted by steverobin on 7th of Sep 2022 at 12:46 pm

The Bulls are the Captain now. 

Bounced off the 3896-83 zone

Posted by steve on 6th of Sep 2022 at 10:41 am

Bounced off the 3896-83 zone and now Bulls need to reclaim 3928

ES back to VWAP 

Posted by steve on 6th of Sep 2022 at 10:48 am

ES back to VWAP 

Next level for Bulls to

Posted by steve on 6th of Sep 2022 at 11:05 am

Next level for Bulls to clear is 3940 and hold 3916 Support 

Good call on 3940 resistance 

Posted by steve on 6th of Sep 2022 at 12:33 pm

Good call on 3940 resistance 

ES Support Now 3940 then

Posted by steve on 6th of Sep 2022 at 08:37 am

ES Support Now 3940 then 3922-28 

Thanks Steve, have a nice

Posted by retirefire on 6th of Sep 2022 at 09:06 am

Thanks Steve, have a nice area below now if we open green,  to monitor for  Fridays new system entry's

PCE FRIDAY seems to be a

Posted by arun on 28th of Sep 2022 at 06:22 pm

PCE FRIDAY

seems to be a market mover

Definitely - see sticky post

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 06:39 pm

Definitely - see sticky post above 

High Price to Earnings Scanner

Posted by fredsaid on 28th of Sep 2022 at 06:15 pm

High Price to Earnings Scanner - I posted this a while back and had to used the Search function to find it.  

https://www.marketbeat.com/ market-data/high-pe-stocks/ 

Cramer says don't believe the

Posted by fredsaid on 28th of Sep 2022 at 06:14 pm

Cramer says don't believe the rally .... hmmm, even Cramer get's it right sometimes ?

I have to run out and get some meds for my dad

Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2022 at 06:02 pm

still dealing with the residual effects of a recent ischemic stroke. The newsletter will be out a bit later than normal tonight

SPX 15 Views (2 Roadmaps shown) but will adjust if stronger

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 05:47 pm

$SPX - Chart Link- posted two different options here - both paths would lead to a test of the 200 Week MA (approx 3590).

The key to any view will be the NATURE of the next pullback and subsequent bounce

Big payday overnight for those

Posted by steve on 29th of Sep 2022 at 05:50 am

Big payday overnight for those who followed

Ka-ching

Posted by timebandit on 29th of Sep 2022 at 08:39 am

Ka-ching

Busy morning as well as

Posted by steve on 29th of Sep 2022 at 07:22 am

Busy morning as well as sold chunk of inverse  ETFs for IRAs at 4 am

Going back to bed for awhile after long night.  Hope some prospered from setup posted

Back up and see that

Posted by steve on 29th of Sep 2022 at 08:50 am

Back up and see that futures are back down near session lows - trailing stops on all remaining shorts.  HUGE PAYDAY - shared my plan well in advance yesterday 

Looks like a higher low

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 29th of Sep 2022 at 08:54 am

Looks like a higher low is still possible too based on current action. Nice call on the trade Steve. Let's see

YES - a higher low

Posted by steve on 29th of Sep 2022 at 08:57 am

YES - a higher low is absolutely possible (ES support 3680 holding) and thus why I elected to lock in most gains and trail stops.   Both scenarios called for lower prices so loaded shorts yesterday and will manage today.   Rallies in this market are a gift UNTIL evidence (structure) changes. 

Could be wave B of

Posted by kobie on 29th of Sep 2022 at 09:12 am

Could be wave B of 4....with C up to come to complete Wave4?

Is anyone familiar with writing

Posted by focus175 on 28th of Sep 2022 at 05:39 pm

Is anyone familiar with writing up strategies in TradingView? I want to back test a simple strategy primarily based off candlesticks, but after watching a number of youtube tutorials on writing in Pinescript I find myself totally lost haha. 

james roe here can code

Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2022 at 05:57 pm

james roe here can code up for you

Expanded Flat

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 05:29 pm

$SPX - Chart Link

QQQ - Chart Link

Other option that I mentioned to Matt would be that today's move is a Wave A then B pullback (say 50%) then up again in Wave C prior to Wave 5 down (this would close the 3758 gap the fundamental posted) 

The time component favors the

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 07:05 pm

The time component favors the gray option for a larger 4th wave the other option is for short term view of Wave 3 extending 

I dont want to add

Posted by mitchell on 29th of Sep 2022 at 03:26 pm

I dont want to add fuel to a fire but confusion may be related to an earlier post stating Gray option as primary, but now appears Red option was primary.

"option" can't possibly be the

Posted by simple_million on 29th of Sep 2022 at 04:03 pm

"option" can't possibly be the right word here either, I think it could sometimes be clearer when a call is being made that an outcome is more likely than another outcome vs just talking about what "could" happen 

i was thinking we might

Posted by arun on 28th of Sep 2022 at 05:37 pm

i was thinking we might fill the gap. i guess not

arun - refresh the blog

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 05:41 pm

arun - refresh the blog as I added comments 

Systems update and trade notification

Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:48 pm

Hello all, it's been a wild week and today the market had a nice snap back rally from oversold conditions. 

Regarding the reversion to mean systems:

The bear long that triggered on SPY and ES - is exiting on ES, it's holding for SPY.  We are going to exit the ES long positions from the bear long.

Systems that are holding: SPY Bear Long, SPY QE 3.2 Exhaustion, and ES Bear Exhaustion. 

Just to be safe and because this market is still really dangerous, we're going to exit 1/2 of the SPY QE 3.2 here in after hrs and 1/2 of the ES Bear Exhaust. Plus those two systems are up nicely because they first entered on Monday. I'll update the trade tables shortly but here's the table showing systems. 

System trades update

Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:32 pm

here's the current prices on them: not bad actually considering everything

Great.  Thx & bravo 

Posted by watcdy on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:35 pm

Great.  Thx & bravo 

QQQ 60

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:28 pm

QQQ - Chart Link- took some hedges 

I know the trade we

Posted by watcdy on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:26 pm

I know the trade we take his personal choice however when you post your closing sales as you are today are you taking the 4 PM close or the 5 PM as you have with other buys ?

Hello ! Matt, your systems

Posted by heisenberg on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:13 pm

Hello ! Matt, your systems are very clear, thanks for your pretty job . Perhaps, a  good thing could be to put on status of each system on line, or at least 04:10 PM if there are changes (for people that dont follow the community), so to peolple that trade options like me, we can  have still 5 minutes to trade. Continue like you do !! 

KISS stuff

Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:07 pm

showing the 4 time frames on SPX: 

yesterday we had that Demark 9 on 1/2 day and 13 on the 130 min.  

The 60 min had the amateur selling, which marked a nice low - price now logically stalling at the ATR here

ASPS - Steve, I think

Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:05 pm

ASPS - Steve, I think you might have posted this one way way back. Didn't work out at the time (fighting the fed) but I've been selling calls against it ever since and doing quite well. It's starting to look interesting again now, IMO. I will probably take profits on short calls and let it ride naked soon. 

It think it would be

Posted by Breakdown on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:51 pm

It think it would be a good idea if we're told how many positions the subsystems are adding or liquidating IN TOTAL to lessen the confusion .  This would be beneficial for those of us here who don't necessarily trade the ES, but the SPY.  I myself trade the SPY for the ES.

We already do that -

Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:59 pm

We already do that - all year long I have been saying which systems and parts we are exiting or entering 

come on guys - if you are going to follow the systems, you need to also be disciplined about it and pay attention 

Yes, you have, Matt.   Otherwise,

Posted by lewiscook on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:33 pm

Yes, you have, Matt.  

Otherwise, we all knew the market was extremely oversold, due to bounce and that often news can be the excuse needed for technical chart analysis to execute.  This said, I hope to hear on your newsletter tonight what you think of the BOE action today...... Thanks for all you and Steve do

I post every month or

Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:14 pm

I post every month or so that a "system on systems" for Matts system  trades would be very useful. If you manage your personal  portfolio with allocation profiles / percentages  or many portfolios for clients, you know why that would be awesome. Never had a comment in return but I'm still interested in coming up with something like that....whether rules based or algorithmic, or both (they are sort of synonymous). Its not a simple thing...or maybe it is and I'm just missing it. Would love to hear if someone has a rules based approach to executing system trades from an net liq %, buying power %,  etc basis. 

From an extremely simplistic point

Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:18 pm

From an extremely simplistic point of view, you could allocate say 5% of portfolio to BPT system trades. Easy? Nope. How many system trades are in play over an average time frame? How do you account for 2nd and 3rd entries? Etc. It's a complicated puzzle. 

The systems are so simple

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:29 pm

The systems are so simple to follow, I'm frankly lost how this is said to be complicated. 

I run a "dumb program". Enter the trades when it enters, exit when it exits. In between do nothing, don't read news, watch the market, or trade.

My grandson knows how to do it and  he's going on 8. He's says Papa what does the system say to do today? It's that simple. Less is more. 

If I'm already long in one trading system, I stick with it and don't start others. I will add 2nd or 3rd entries in the system I'm using if needed. Everything else is informational to me. 

As said before specialists make money, others typically waste time and money. Master a strategy and stick with it. 

Well said Fundamentalvalues. I do

Posted by mundy on 28th of Sep 2022 at 07:46 pm

Well said Fundamentalvalues. I do though run up to 5 systems and have a spreadsheet in which I calculate how many contracts for every signal. With options I calculate a $ value and do those as well.

Agree. I took "master a

Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Sep 2022 at 05:15 pm

Agree. I took "master a strategy and stick to it" to another level in personal portfolios. Maybe complex to some, but it's like mowing the lawn for me at this point.

Matt's system trades do affect how I balance these opposing positions. 

Thanks for sharing man

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 28th of Sep 2022 at 05:57 pm

Thanks for sharing man

Strategy is everything.  You didn't

Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:39 pm

Strategy is everything.  You didn't describe yours for multiple strategies in play. What % of net liq or buying power do you allocate per system? Have you ever been pressed (aka margin call) with too many systems in play and second entries ?

DigiNomad, I have shared my

Posted by mundy on 28th of Sep 2022 at 07:39 pm

DigiNomad, I have shared my spreadsheet with number of contracts etc with a few members already. If you are interested please e-mail me on mundy@iafrica.com

If this is for me,

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:50 pm

If this is for me, please read my full post. It is that simple for me. No margin calls, or complicated moves otherwise, I use cash. And set amounts for entries. Use a dollar amount or percentage, whatever is comfortable.

I've taught my grandson, he is my new trading partne, and you all here on the site. 

And I also assume this

Posted by mirhamedali on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:12 pm

And I also assume this is updated real time:

https://breakpointtrades.com/spy_trades/

I personally maintain a google sheet to keep track of the alerts real time.

Matt it might be a good idea to embed a google sheet onto the tracking page.

Very clear on Systems, I

Posted by retirefire on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:07 pm

Very clear on Systems, I also prepare before 4pm close. I also have written on paper which System, what trade entry and price.  Make a templet so it's easy to follow.

SPX 1 Updated

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:43 pm

System Exits ?

Posted by fredsaid on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:32 pm

System Exits ?

read below man

Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:34 pm

read below man

PUT THIS ON YOUR CALENDER - PCE FRIDAY

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:21 pm

Core PCE (inflation data) came in at 4.6% y-o-y last month. This month's reading (coming Friday) is expected to be 4.7% based on MarketWatch median forecast. All TBD.

Just another 100 point range

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:15 pm

Just another 100 point range day for ES  .  Last night's ES Pivot support 3612 produced a big response (aided of course by the BOE) 

SPX 60

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:09 pm

$SPX - Chart Link- comments directly below relate to this chart 

SPX notice the break of the accelerated channel which signified and short term trend change..squeeze continues

Gap magnet at 3,757. Gap

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:12 pm

Gap magnet at 3,757. Gap master out haha

oh i likes that number

Posted by fredsaid on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:18 pm

oh i likes that number - giddiyup !

Newsletter

Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!