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Title: Top Down Approach Discussion and how to View BPT - Click on Title

Steve,  how does one access

Posted by bharvey96 on 30th of Sep 2020 at 01:35 pm

Steve,  how does one access the "Ciovacco Historical Perspective Charts?"  I would imagine you need to be a client?

He puts out a weekly

Posted by steve on 30th of Sep 2020 at 01:41 pm

He puts out a weekly video via Twitter on Friday Night

Hi Matt/steve, is today highly

Posted by kevindeng0727 on 16th of Jun 2020 at 09:18 am

Hi Matt/steve, is today highly likely to be a trend day?

McClellan Systems closed out

Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 04:10 pm

you can see the trades on SPX upper left and the IWM 2nd entry at the bottom right. Stats show the SPX. The IWM is similar

Hi Matt... are the McClellan

Posted by bhst024 on 20th of Jul 2021 at 09:55 pm

Hi Matt... are the McClellan Systems posted somewhere on your website or do we just have to pay attention to the posts on the Community page. Will McClellan system open and closes be posted to the SMS alerts? Thanks for all you do!

they are not listed on

Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 10:20 pm

they are not listed on the website yet. Though I'm going to add a section to the Systems section area. I'm not sure if I plan to send them out, I may do so, but at first I'll be adding some general info to that section describing them along with some examples

I can also add those

Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 10:25 pm

I can also add those McClellan systems to smaller time frames, for example here's a 60 min chart of SPX, you can see the trades it's taken (more than the daily). LOL looks like it took 4 entries yesterday. Clearly I'm not setup to send out signals to intra day systems like that. The only way that would work would be to have one ones computer to have it fully automated take the trades itself

Here's the statistics on all

Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 04:30 pm

Here's the statistics on all 4 Index McClellan Bollinger Band stats. Mostly the same. Otherwise the data goes back much further on the SPX to 1980, but much less so on the others with the Russell data going back the least

20 k share blocks bid

Posted by retirefire on 20th of Jul 2021 at 04:03 pm

20 k share blocks bid at 2.80 woke AAZZF up

Is that a VIX buy signal

Posted by lsherrer on 20th of Jul 2021 at 03:51 pm

Is that a VIX buy signal I see? 

100 point bounces? Geezsh  

Posted by profmel on 20th of Jul 2021 at 03:27 pm

100 point bounces? Geezsh     Got to give it up to the algo boys -- trading to the penny off of Matt's charts :) That TICK chart is worth the cost of admission!

glad you find that useful,

Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 04:03 pm

glad you find that useful, yes price got pretty close to that next pivot - let me rephrase that it did. that next Tick pivot is 4339, the high was 4337, so 2 points. I like to use +/- 3/5 points with those. The 4307 is now support since we are above it

Updated view on this 60 min and MA ribbon

Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 03:19 pm

that's the look - it's hard to quantify that in a system with numbers, but visually is very obvious when you see the MA ribbon and BPT MA deluxe like that, and of course the 13 Demark was just icing on the cake

FOLD lookin' nice!

Posted by Trendie on 20th of Jul 2021 at 02:38 pm

FOLD lookin' nice!

ASPS back above horizontal support

Posted by timebandit on 20th of Jul 2021 at 02:26 pm

ASPS back above horizontal support

$VIX has a chance of

Posted by timebandit on 20th of Jul 2021 at 02:23 pm

$VIX has a chance of closing within the upper band if the market holds up into the close. Currently at 20.17, while the upper band is at 20.45

SPY System:  Another winner!  If

Posted by steverobin on 20th of Jul 2021 at 02:15 pm

SPY System:  Another winner!  If you only took these trades the site is a Homerun!

Shorting XLB here. Chart is

Posted by timebandit on 20th of Jul 2021 at 01:58 pm

Shorting XLB here. Chart is from last night's newsletter, updated to today

Ok, timebandit, you were right-on,

Posted by Ray on 20th of Jul 2021 at 02:27 pm

Ok, timebandit, you were right-on, with the 61.8 Fib on the SPY trade; so, I will join you on this one.  It looks vulnerable.

Jury is still out on

Posted by timebandit on 20th of Jul 2021 at 03:04 pm

Jury is still out on SPY and the markets. Breadth has been strong. I don't regret taking profits where I did, and you're right that XLB looks vulnerable, but I'm feeling pretty cautious on the short side here with the earnings wild cards in the mix

Thanks! Grabbed some and up

Posted by jackbnimble on 20th of Jul 2021 at 02:23 pm

Thanks! Grabbed some and up so far

AAZZF is testing an up-channel

Posted by Trendie on 20th of Jul 2021 at 01:31 pm

AAZZF is testing an up-channel on my daily. Don't like that it's sat for so long on that line. Needs to hold here. That 200 SMA is a long way down there.

Sorry. Not an up channel.

Posted by Trendie on 20th of Jul 2021 at 01:32 pm

Sorry. Not an up channel. Just trendline support as I drew it.

Yeah AAZZF needs to bounce.

Posted by retirefire on 20th of Jul 2021 at 02:17 pm

Yeah AAZZF needs to bounce. Or buy weakness ?

How do I get system

Posted by xxkumarxx on 20th of Jul 2021 at 01:27 pm

How do I get system trade alerts on my phone.  I generally miss them as I can only get to review after close and next day most of the time the trade has moved significantly.

go to Account on the

Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 01:30 pm

go to Account on the website, click on SMS button

https://breakpointtrades.com/stats/alert_manager/ 

click on SMS preferences - you have to add membership, then it will have you input your phone number - you then have to check your phone for a code that the systems sends to you for verification, and you have to come back to that section and enter the verification code to confirm

Very helpful - I've just

Posted by foody518 on 20th of Jul 2021 at 03:21 pm

Very helpful - I've just gone and added this as well

Hey, Matt; Thanks for the

Posted by Ray on 20th of Jul 2021 at 01:16 pm

Hey, Matt; Thanks for the SPY Call System trade.  Got out at 61.8 Fib.  (See market is pulling back a little now.)  In any case, I made enough from this one trade to keep up my subscription for many years in the future!

FB retesting trendline breakdown. Tempted

Posted by timebandit on 20th of Jul 2021 at 12:52 pm

FB retesting trendline breakdown. Tempted to short this with a small position. Reports after the close 7/27 or on 7/28 (seeing different information)

Did not take this short.

Posted by timebandit on 20th of Jul 2021 at 02:18 pm

Did not take this short. Market a little too strong for me at the moment

Question answered

Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 12:41 pm

someone asked me how could they trim a position if they only bought  1 option, that's true you can't split an option

that's why for options if you wish to have that 'trim' opportunity in the future do more than 1 option as your baseline multiple for the 1st entry. Remember I show 1 as a baseline structure, with the 2nd entry as double the 1st and the 3rd as triple the first.

1st, 2nd, 3rd entries: 1, 2, 3.  or 2, 4, 6, or 3, 6, 9, or 5, 10, 15 and so on following that 1,2,3 multiple - those are examples of following that multiple

it's whatever fits your risk profile and account size guys

Trim single option position -

Posted by jtsurfah on 20th of Jul 2021 at 12:46 pm

Trim single option position -  a couple of ways to trim a profitable single option position while still allowing for some upside is to either "cover" the position (sell a call against it) or "collar" it (sell a call and buy a put). I typically just sell a call...often near or in the money. 

jtsurfah, thanks for the idea.

Posted by craigm on 20th of Jul 2021 at 05:01 pm

jtsurfah, thanks for the idea. I sold a call near the close before the EOD drop. 

Nice trade...for now anyway   

Posted by jtsurfah on 21st of Jul 2021 at 12:28 am

Nice trade...for now anyway     Starting with a long call into an oversold situation and covering it to take in some premium once the easy money is made is one of my favorite ways to get into a bullish spread tread. Depending on the circumstances, if you get the initial move you expect, you can often sell a call against the naked call that will completely eliminate possibility of any losses on the overall trade (other than a portion of unrealized gains), but still alow for some upside in the form of premium.  Or you can take some more risk and sell an out of the money call for a lot more potential pop (if you're right).

yep that's a good point,

Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 12:55 pm

yep that's a good point, you can do creative things using spreads etc, which I'm not an expert of, but yes

Thanks, or you could simply

Posted by mkrajah1211 on 21st of Jul 2021 at 11:26 am

Thanks, or you could simply just delta hedge half of your position i.e sell 50 SPY shares/CFD's to effectively "lock in" half of your option call contract. Once you fully close out the option you can then just close out the half SPY portion with it

I'm going to keep it

Posted by retirefire on 21st of Jul 2021 at 11:38 am

I'm going to keep it simple and just buy 2 options.

@Matt - just curious what

Posted by shinings on 20th of Jul 2021 at 12:29 pm

@Matt - just curious what will trigger the currently open SPY trend/pull back trade to exit?

in the meantime aazzf maybe

Posted by morton7 on 20th of Jul 2021 at 12:09 pm

in the meantime aazzf maybe a falling wedge pattern on the hourly....

hoping for some news soon

Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 12:27 pm

hoping for some news soon on AAZZF - let's hope, would like to see a reversal from this downtrend

Market update

Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 11:48 am

$SPX - Chart Link- 5 min, price trying for that gap fill

$SPX - Chart Link- we blew through two TICK pivots today. The next one is so far up that it's not worth discussing at this stage, best to focus on that fill from yesterday and other stuff

Market may want next TICK

Posted by mitchell on 20th of Jul 2021 at 12:34 pm

Market may want next TICK if strength continues. Strong buy dip programs today.

Update: Market update

Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 12:05 pm

$SPX - Chart Link- filled the gaparoo

amen brother!

Posted by morton7 on 20th of Jul 2021 at 12:07 pm

amen brother!

great job Matt! Im out...thx

Posted by morton7 on 20th of Jul 2021 at 12:03 pm

great job Matt! Im out...thx

SPY System update

Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 11:35 am

Quick update on yesterday's SPY system 1st entry

As you know we use both versions of the Trend/Pullback. I'll exit 50% of this system trade when the system at the top of this image exits, it's the one that is easier to exit to reduce risk. Even with today's rally the aggressive exit version will not be exiting, however it could do so tomorrow should the market be up slightly.

currently on the SPY Trend/Pullback

Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 12:36 pm

currently on the SPY Trend/Pullback the aggressive exit version needs a close above the 8 day SMA to exit. Trying to get a hold of my programmer, I want him to add an EMA option to that, I want to also test the 8 and 9 EMA against that to see which is better. Price may be closing over the 8 or 9 EMA today but NOT the 8 SMA, so I wish to test that. If the 25 year history ends up favoring the EMA over the SMA I'll switch to that and send a trade alert out

so I got the code

Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 01:35 pm

so I got the code update, ran the backtest back to 1995 testing the 7- 10 SMA along with the 7 - 10 EMA as short term exit

here's the results. The image, the area in gray is what we use the 8 SMA.  The test that made the most money was using the 10 SMA but max draw down goes away up for obvious reasons. 

The 8 SMA appears to be just slightly better than the 8 EMA. 

The 9 EMA is slightly better with an 11 profit favtor, and the 10 EMA is the best overall with a 12 profit factor and same max draw down.

Currently the 9 EMA on the SPY is 431.58, current price is now 431.14 and the high was 432.08 so it was above that intra day

Which are you intending to

Posted by jackbnimble on 20th of Jul 2021 at 03:44 pm

Which are you intending to use as the exit for “Harder-to-enter, easier-to-exit” system trade currently long? 

the 9 EMA - too

Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 03:57 pm

the 9 EMA - too bad price won't be closing over it, it was above it 15 min ago.

as far as which systems? I've made that clear many times, I use both. I use the harder to enter a long position. For exiting that position I then I use the (easier to exit version ) to exit 1/2 the trade (usually the option) and keep long the ETF based on the one that holds longer as it makes more profit, and I place a stop at entry.

follow up on the new ones last night

Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 11:23 am

CYDY - Chart Link-

MBI - Chart Link-

Update: follow up on the new ones last night

Posted by matt on 21st of Jul 2021 at 12:27 pm

FND - Chart Link- nice moves on these

EQH - Chart Link-

Update: Update: follow up on the new ones last night

Posted by matt on 21st of Jul 2021 at 12:43 pm

SEER - Chart Link- also this one

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