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Once again, the above video link provides an overview
referencing current stock market conditions relative to similar
past readings. This would be most relevant for position
investors (such as retirement accounts) to monitor on a weekly
This is NOT a
forecast just data points at this time. Continue to keep an
open mind and respect the message of the market.
Markets are fluid and subject to change as we all know - key is
to establish a methodology that fits with your beliefs. You
can also incorporate a hybrid approach with your portfolio by
position investing certain funds for longer term (accepting
volatility until EVIDENCE changes) and dedicating other funds to
short term trading. Those are decisions for each individual.
If you have yet to formalize an investing/trading approach
please take some time to formalize a template - you can always
adjust but it's best to have something in place. From there,
you should formulate a PLAN that entails your objectives.
Once a plan is in place, then you can refine down to which
specific securities you want to invest and/or trade. This is
a TOP DOWN approach that should be enacted PRIOR to looking for
trades. Just like a Football team(or any sports team) - the
General manager has a vision/approach on how he/she wants to build
a team. Then he/she hires a coach to devise a scheme around those
players to maximize their talents. Next, the coach puts
into place a weekly game plan (making necessary adjustments) before
finally selecting specific plays.
How does BPT come into this picture? Think of BPT like a
consultant/assistant coach who helps to make your job easier
along the way. We provide daily analysis of several markets
which helps to provide some guidance as to how we see things.
We also spend a considerable amount of time providing tips
and educational examples to help execute you plan. Think of
the DVT approach for swing trades and the nightly discussion of
charts involving patterns and candlesticks, etc. We
also scan for and offer trade suggestions (ideas) that we believe
are valid setups and we take time to review the triggered setups in
the following days. Partake in only the ideas that fit into
your plan and simply ignore ones that don't. Finally, we
spend time posting relevant comments and numerous charts every day
in the trading community relating to what transpiring during that
trading session and updating trade ideas.
why would the VIX not have reached 38-39 on a day like this?
Probably because of what Steve posted earlier. See below
maybe meaning a lot of room for it to run higher?
Thanks, Matt -- appreciate it. Looking forward to seeing
those things you've been working on!
Steve, how does one access the "Ciovacco Historical
Perspective Charts?" I would imagine you need to be a
He puts out a weekly video via Twitter on Friday Night
Hi Matt/steve, is today highly likely to be a trend day?
Happy 50th Birthday Matt.
Happy 50th Matt; Enjoy the Day!!
Best wishes on your 50th birthday Matt!
Interesting confidence information here, see the attached photo.
Pretty extreme in terms of bearishness right now.
Fear and greed now at 14, was at 6 prior when we were in lower
3,800s before moving up:
One trader/portfolio manager yesterday brought an interesting
viewpoint that the Fed will have to capitulate markets instead of
having some moment in time where we selloff in a flush for the same
reasons. And right now I agree, in this moment in time and at this
pricepoint, it should be harder for the market to go down because
there is no new information for it to do so. Other than sentiment,
if it chooses to relive the same trauma again and again. We saw
this behavior with the war prior, it was staying down and down on
the war, and inflation, etc. Then there came a point where it just
couldn't go down on that news anymore. It unleashed a massive rally
from the 4,100s-4,600s. Like 12% just looking at it
We know it is bad, we know we have inflation, we know the Fed
tightened rates, and is talking tough, and will likely do more. We
have had real change though in terms of prices in a short period of
time and there is a pocket here where I think people get offsides
in believing the market will never rally again. Just like in
bullish times, when anyone looks like a genius just buying
anything, this is a time where just yelling sell as been rewarded
for months. I continue to believe we are in a bottoming process or
higher lows, trade lows. Yesterday cracked me up, market went down
to 3,909 and didn't fill the 3,901 gap.
Games being played by computers. This is a casino. I'll play
their game though and keep hedging for trades until they change
their tune. Frankly exhausting, though that is what the market
wants, to exhaust people, and steal their shares and money on both
sides. I believe there is psychology built into the algos and
technology is being used along with media stories that creates this
whole land of Oz. Makes an even better case for just focusing on
price and not all the chatter. Back to what matters, what is price
saying right now? Well right now, we have a higher low until we
don't. Risk/reward. Be flexible when markets change.
Happy Birthday Matt! Hope you enjoy the day!
Happy 50th Matt!!
Happy Birthday Matt all the best
Happy 50th Birthday Matt ! Learned today that I'm about 6
mos older than you....very interesting. Congratuations on
crossing the bridge sir ! lol
I'm 50 next year - something I never saw coming in my wildest
dreams - expecting fire and brimstone and the earth to swallow me
Happy Birthday! My71st was two days ago.
Happy Birthday Matt and a belated one to you Skyfish
Yes, Happy Birthday
Rubble:Euro Monthly ....
wow... are those years on the x axis ? I'm old and drunk
.. oh shit just remembered - Happy Birthday Matt !
- moved down today diverging negatively from $GDX. Does have a
positive divergence on CCI. Also, getting fairly low. Can go lower,
but could also reverse at any point
here's a link to the live view with my trendlines
here's the updated view of that ES chart I posted last night. I
didn't adjust any of the trendlines - ES fell through that support
fell about 20 points, then bounced again near that open gap and is
currently sitting almost around where I posted it last night, and
here's the Live URL
ES filled that gap
here's the Bitcoin chart - still mostly stable in that
Great link. Looks VERY inverse HnS ish. this is what
has been pestering me.
Fantastic newsletter in a difficult tape. Here's what's
clear to me (I think ha)). One more test down with a higher low
inside the channels, then a 2-4 week rally (max?) that will end
with a fantastic short. Safe to buy long after channel break
AND retest in the sort term. ;) ITS MADNESS I TELL YOU :) $,
Commodities, Yields, Bonds, HYG and maybe even Crypto act
indifferent during this rally other than confirmation of correlated
short term directions. If Monday was just another bear
bounce, those blog views of BTC dropping as early warning will
prove monumentil in my trade tomorrow. Love this joint !
Voting buttons for blog posts - would be great on this site
We've looked at this in the past, it's a feature I would like to
add, it would require writing some new views so you could sort by
popularity, and some database optimizing.
Not sure it's a priority in the next few months, but after we've
addressed a few things we're working on it's something I'd like to
come back to.
Then you the man with the master plan and I'm just a fan !
Matt and the boyz been working you to the bone (that's an 80s
orignal house track) ! Site security is job 1. Then
enhancements. Then bugs ... enhancements ahead of bugs ?
wtf ?!? ;)
Snap 8-K Shows Co. Warns 'macroeconomic environment has
deteriorated further and faster than anticipated' Since Co. Issued
Guidance At End Of Apr.
Futures already down 36
Large AH drop in SNAP after revised earnings and estimates
FB joining the downdraft out of sympathy, dropping 15+ points so
JPM--- still looks promising
ZM beat and trading higher after hours
NQ 15 min inverse h & s.......
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