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Title: Top Down Approach Discussion and how to View BPT - Click on Title

why would the VIX not

Posted by Walt on 5th of May 2022 at 04:02 pm

why would the VIX not have reached 38-39 on a day like this?

Probably because of what Steve

Posted by rfa300 on 5th of May 2022 at 04:06 pm

Probably because of what Steve posted earlier. See below

maybe meaning a lot of

Posted by kevindeng0727 on 5th of May 2022 at 04:03 pm

maybe meaning a lot of room for it to run higher?

Thanks, Matt -- appreciate it.

Posted by mstaples37 on 25th of Oct 2021 at 05:05 pm

Thanks, Matt -- appreciate it.  Looking forward to seeing those things you've been working on!

Steve,  how does one access

Posted by bharvey96 on 30th of Sep 2020 at 01:35 pm

Steve,  how does one access the "Ciovacco Historical Perspective Charts?"  I would imagine you need to be a client?

He puts out a weekly

Posted by steve on 30th of Sep 2020 at 01:41 pm

He puts out a weekly video via Twitter on Friday Night

Hi Matt/steve, is today highly

Posted by kevindeng0727 on 16th of Jun 2020 at 09:18 am

Hi Matt/steve, is today highly likely to be a trend day?

Happy 50th Birthday Matt.

Posted by coolhat on 24th of May 2022 at 08:18 am

Happy 50th Birthday Matt.

Happy 50th Matt; Enjoy the

Posted by cozz101 on 24th of May 2022 at 08:16 am

Happy 50th Matt; Enjoy the Day!!   

Best wishes on your 50th

Posted by craigm on 24th of May 2022 at 08:15 am

Best wishes on your 50th birthday Matt!

Interesting confidence information here, see

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 24th of May 2022 at 07:59 am

Interesting confidence information here, see the attached photo. Pretty extreme in terms of bearishness right now. 

Fear and greed now at 14, was at 6 prior when we were in lower 3,800s before moving up: https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

One trader/portfolio manager yesterday brought an interesting viewpoint that the Fed will have to capitulate markets instead of having some moment in time where we selloff in a flush for the same reasons. And right now I agree, in this moment in time and at this pricepoint, it should be harder for the market to go down because there is no new information for it to do so. Other than sentiment, if it chooses to relive the same trauma again and again. We saw this behavior with the war prior, it was staying down and down on the war, and inflation, etc. Then there came a point where it just couldn't go down on that news anymore. It unleashed a massive rally from the 4,100s-4,600s. Like 12% just looking at it roughly. 

We know it is bad, we know we have inflation, we know the Fed tightened rates, and is talking tough, and will likely do more. We have had real change though in terms of prices in a short period of time and there is a pocket here where I think people get offsides in believing the market will never rally again. Just like in bullish times, when anyone looks like a genius just buying anything, this is a time where just yelling sell as been rewarded for months. I continue to believe we are in a bottoming process or higher lows, trade lows. Yesterday cracked me up, market went down to 3,909 and didn't fill the 3,901 gap. 

Games being played by computers. This is a casino. I'll play their game though and keep hedging for trades until they change their tune. Frankly exhausting, though that is what the market wants, to exhaust people, and steal their shares and money on both sides. I believe there is psychology built into the algos and technology is being used along with media stories that creates this whole land of Oz. Makes an even better case for just focusing on price and not all the chatter. Back to what matters, what is price saying right now? Well right now, we have a higher low until we don't. Risk/reward. Be flexible when markets change. 

nice post

Posted by alseq on 24th of May 2022 at 08:55 am

nice post

Happy Birthday Matt!  Hope you

Posted by tmladucky on 24th of May 2022 at 07:37 am

Happy Birthday Matt!  Hope you enjoy the day!



Happy 50th Matt!!

Posted by arun on 24th of May 2022 at 07:25 am

Happy 50th Matt!!

Happy Birthday Matt   all the

Posted by alseq on 24th of May 2022 at 06:56 am

Happy Birthday Matt   all the best

Happy 50th Birthday Matt !

Posted by fredsaid on 24th of May 2022 at 12:43 am

Happy 50th Birthday Matt !  Learned today that I'm about 6 mos older than you....very interesting.  Congratuations on crossing the bridge sir ! lol

I'm 50 next year -

Posted by crossharry on 24th of May 2022 at 08:18 am

I'm 50 next year - something I never saw coming in my wildest dreams - expecting fire and brimstone and the earth to swallow me whole...

Happy Birthday!  My71st was two

Posted by skyfish on 24th of May 2022 at 01:53 am

Happy Birthday!  My71st was two days ago.

Happy Birthday Matt and a

Posted by steve on 24th of May 2022 at 08:10 am

Happy Birthday Matt and a belated one to you Skyfish

Yes, Happy Birthday

Posted by flredsox on 24th of May 2022 at 08:14 am

Yes, Happy Birthday

Rubble:Euro Monthly ....   

Posted by mla127 on 24th of May 2022 at 12:29 am

Rubble:Euro Monthly ....   

wow... are those years on

Posted by fredsaid on 24th of May 2022 at 12:42 am

wow... are those years on the x axis ?  I'm old and drunk .. oh shit just remembered - Happy Birthday Matt !  

$BPGDM - moved down today diverging

Posted by timebandit on 24th of May 2022 at 12:05 am

$BPGDM - moved down today diverging negatively from $GDX. Does have a positive divergence on CCI. Also, getting fairly low. Can go lower, but could also reverse at any point

ES futures

Posted by matt on 23rd of May 2022 at 11:12 pm

here's a link to the live view with my trendlines

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/eAeTd6zj/ 

here's the updated view of

Posted by matt on 24th of May 2022 at 08:59 am

here's the updated view of that ES chart I posted last night. I didn't adjust any of the trendlines - ES fell through that support fell about 20 points, then bounced again near that open gap and is currently sitting almost around where I posted it last night, and here's the Live URL

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/eAeTd6zj/

here's the Bitcoin chart -

Posted by matt on 24th of May 2022 at 09:00 am

here's the Bitcoin chart - still mostly stable in that channel

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/eAeTd6zj/ 

Great link.  Looks VERY inverse

Posted by fredsaid on 23rd of May 2022 at 11:52 pm

Great link.  Looks VERY inverse HnS ish.  this is what has been pestering me.

Fantastic newsletter in a difficult

Posted by fredsaid on 23rd of May 2022 at 10:50 pm

Fantastic newsletter in a difficult tape.  Here's what's clear to me (I think ha)). One more test down with a higher low inside the channels, then a 2-4 week rally (max?) that will end with a fantastic short.   Safe to buy long after channel break AND retest in the sort term. ;)  ITS MADNESS I TELL YOU :) $, Commodities, Yields,  Bonds, HYG and maybe even Crypto act indifferent during this rally other than confirmation of correlated short term directions.  If Monday was just another bear bounce, those blog views of BTC dropping as early warning will prove monumentil in my trade tomorrow.  Love this joint !

Voting buttons for blog posts

Posted by fredsaid on 23rd of May 2022 at 10:15 pm

Voting buttons for blog posts - would be great on this site !

We've looked at this in

Posted by James_Roe on 23rd of May 2022 at 11:20 pm

We've looked at this in the past, it's a feature I would like to add, it would require writing some new views so you could sort by popularity, and some database optimizing.

Not sure it's a priority in the next few months, but after we've addressed a few things we're working on it's something I'd like to come back to.

Then you the man with

Posted by fredsaid on 23rd of May 2022 at 11:58 pm

Then you the man with the master plan and I'm just a fan !  Matt and the boyz been working you to the bone (that's an 80s orignal house track) !  Site security is job 1.  Then enhancements.  Then bugs ... enhancements ahead of bugs ?  wtf ?!? ;)

Monday's Newsletter

Posted by matt on 23rd of May 2022 at 09:01 pm

Snap 8-K Shows Co. Warns

Posted by steve on 23rd of May 2022 at 06:40 pm

Snap 8-K Shows Co. Warns 'macroeconomic environment has deteriorated further and faster than anticipated' Since Co. Issued Guidance At End Of Apr.

Futures already down 36

Posted by lamb on 23rd of May 2022 at 06:37 pm

Futures already down 36

Large AH drop in SNAP

Posted by focus175 on 23rd of May 2022 at 05:30 pm

Large AH drop in SNAP after revised earnings and estimates https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/23/snap-shares-fall-as-ceo-says-company-will-miss-revenue-and-earnings-estimates-plans-to-slow-hiring.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.PostToTwitter.

FB joining the downdraft out

Posted by timebandit on 23rd of May 2022 at 05:45 pm

FB joining the downdraft out of sympathy, dropping 15+ points so far

JPM---  still looks promising 

Posted by watcdy on 23rd of May 2022 at 05:17 pm

JPM---  still looks promising 

ZM beat and trading higher

Posted by steve on 23rd of May 2022 at 04:18 pm

ZM beat and trading higher after hours 

NQ 15 min inverse h

Posted by kobie on 23rd of May 2022 at 04:10 pm

NQ 15 min inverse h & s.......

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