Once again, the above video link provides an overview
referencing current stock market conditions relative to similar
past readings. This would be most relevant for position
investors (such as retirement accounts) to monitor on a weekly
basis.
This is NOT a
forecast just data points at this time. Continue to keep an
open mind and respect the message of the market.
Markets are fluid and subject to change as we all know - key is
to establish a methodology that fits with your beliefs. You
can also incorporate a hybrid approach with your portfolio by
position investing certain funds for longer term (accepting
volatility until EVIDENCE changes) and dedicating other funds to
short term trading. Those are decisions for each individual.
If you have yet to formalize an investing/trading approach
please take some time to formalize a template - you can always
adjust but it's best to have something in place. From there,
you should formulate a PLAN that entails your objectives.
Once a plan is in place, then you can refine down to which
specific securities you want to invest and/or trade. This is
a TOP DOWN approach that should be enacted PRIOR to looking for
trades. Just like a Football team(or any sports team) - the
General manager has a vision/approach on how he/she wants to build
a team. Then he/she hires a coach to devise a scheme around those
players to maximize their talents. Next, the coach puts
into place a weekly game plan (making necessary adjustments) before
finally selecting specific plays.
How does BPT come into this picture? Think of BPT like a
consultant/assistant coach who helps to make your job easier
along the way. We provide daily analysis of several markets
which helps to provide some guidance as to how we see things.
We also spend a considerable amount of time providing tips
and educational examples to help execute you plan. Think of
the DVT approach for swing trades and the nightly discussion of
charts involving patterns and candlesticks, etc. We
also scan for and offer trade suggestions (ideas) that we believe
are valid setups and we take time to review the triggered setups in
the following days. Partake in only the ideas that fit into
your plan and simply ignore ones that don't. Finally, we
spend time posting relevant comments and numerous charts every day
in the trading community relating to what transpiring during that
trading session and updating trade ideas.
Hi Matt... are the McClellan Systems posted somewhere on your
website or do we just have to pay attention to the posts on the
Community page. Will McClellan system open and closes be posted to
the SMS alerts? Thanks for all you do!
they are not listed on the website yet. Though I'm going to add
a section to the Systems section area. I'm not sure if I plan to
send them out, I may do so, but at first I'll be adding some
general info to that section describing them along with some
examples
I can also add those McClellan systems to smaller time frames,
for example here's a 60 min chart of SPX, you can see the trades
it's taken (more than the daily). LOL looks like it took 4 entries
yesterday. Clearly I'm not setup to send out signals to intra day
systems like that. The only way that would work would be to have
one ones computer to have it fully automated take the trades
itself
Here's the statistics on all 4 Index McClellan Bollinger Band
stats. Mostly the same. Otherwise the data goes back much further
on the SPX to 1980, but much less so on the others with the Russell
data going back the least
100 point bounces? Geezsh Got to give it up to the
algo boys -- trading to the penny off of Matt's charts :) That TICK
chart is worth the cost of admission!
glad you find that useful, yes price got pretty close to that
next pivot - let me rephrase that it did. that next Tick pivot is
4339, the high was 4337, so 2 points. I like to use +/- 3/5 points
with those. The 4307 is now support since we are above it
that's the look - it's hard to quantify that in a system with
numbers, but visually is very obvious when you see the MA ribbon
and BPT MA deluxe like that, and of course the 13 Demark was just
icing on the cake
Posted by timebandit on 20th of Jul 2021 at 03:04 pm
Jury is still out on SPY and the markets. Breadth has been
strong. I don't regret taking profits where I did, and you're right
that XLB looks vulnerable, but I'm feeling pretty cautious on the
short side here with the earnings wild cards in the mix
AAZZF is testing an up-channel on my daily. Don't like that it's
sat for so long on that line. Needs to hold here. That 200 SMA is a
long way down there.
Posted by xxkumarxx on 20th of Jul 2021 at 01:27 pm
How do I get system trade alerts on my phone. I generally
miss them as I can only get to review after close and next day most
of the time the trade has moved significantly.
click on SMS preferences - you have to add membership, then it
will have you input your phone number - you then have to check your
phone for a code that the systems sends to you for verification,
and you have to come back to that section and enter the
verification code to confirm
Hey, Matt; Thanks for the SPY Call System trade. Got out
at 61.8 Fib. (See market is pulling back a little now.)
In any case, I made enough from this one trade to keep up my
subscription for many years in the future!
someone asked me how could they trim a position if they only
bought 1 option, that's true you can't split an option
that's why for options if you wish to have that 'trim'
opportunity in the future do more than 1 option as your baseline
multiple for the 1st entry. Remember I show 1 as a baseline
structure, with the 2nd entry as double the 1st and the 3rd as
triple the first.
1st, 2nd, 3rd entries: 1, 2, 3. or 2, 4, 6, or 3, 6, 9, or
5, 10, 15 and so on following that 1,2,3 multiple - those are
examples of following that multiple
it's whatever fits your risk profile and account size guys
Posted by jtsurfah on 20th of Jul 2021 at 12:46 pm
Trim single option position - a couple of ways to trim a
profitable single option position while still allowing for some
upside is to either "cover" the position (sell a call against it)
or "collar" it (sell a call and buy a put). I typically just sell a
call...often near or in the money.
Posted by jtsurfah on 21st of Jul 2021 at 12:28 am
Nice trade...for now anyway
Starting with a long call into an
oversold situation and covering it to take in some premium once the
easy money is made is one of my favorite ways to get into a bullish
spread tread. Depending on the circumstances, if you get the
initial move you expect, you can often sell a call against the
naked call that will completely eliminate possibility of any losses
on the overall trade (other than a portion of unrealized gains),
but still alow for some upside in the form of premium. Or you
can take some more risk and sell an out of the money call for a lot
more potential pop (if you're right).
Posted by mkrajah1211 on 21st of Jul 2021 at 11:26 am
Thanks, or you could simply just delta hedge half of your
position i.e sell 50 SPY shares/CFD's to effectively "lock in" half
of your option call contract. Once you fully close out the option
you can then just close out the half SPY portion with it
$SPX - Chart Link- we blew through two TICK
pivots today. The next one is so far up that it's not worth
discussing at this stage, best to focus on that fill from yesterday
and other stuff
As you know we use both versions of the Trend/Pullback. I'll
exit 50% of this system trade when the system at the top of this
image exits, it's the one that is easier to exit to reduce risk.
Even with today's rally the aggressive exit version will not be
exiting, however it could do so tomorrow should the market be up
slightly.
currently on the SPY Trend/Pullback the aggressive exit version
needs a close above the 8 day SMA to exit. Trying to get a hold of
my programmer, I want him to add an EMA option to that, I want to
also test the 8 and 9 EMA against that to see which is better.
Price may be closing over the 8 or 9 EMA today but NOT the 8 SMA,
so I wish to test that. If the 25 year history ends up favoring the
EMA over the SMA I'll switch to that and send a trade alert out
so I got the code update, ran the backtest back to 1995 testing
the 7- 10 SMA along with the 7 - 10 EMA as short term exit
here's the results. The image, the area in gray is what we use
the 8 SMA. The test that made the most money was using the 10
SMA but max draw down goes away up for obvious reasons.
The 8 SMA appears to be just slightly better than the 8
EMA.
The 9 EMA is slightly better with an 11 profit favtor, and the
10 EMA is the best overall with a 12 profit factor and same max
draw down.
Currently the 9 EMA on the SPY is 431.58, current price is now
431.14 and the high was 432.08 so it was above that intra day
the 9 EMA - too bad price won't be closing over it, it was above
it 15 min ago.
as far as which systems? I've made that clear many times, I use
both. I use the harder to enter a long position. For exiting that
position I then I use the (easier to exit version ) to exit 1/2 the
trade (usually the option) and keep long the ETF based on the one
that holds longer as it makes more profit, and I place a stop at
entry.
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
Top Down Approach Discussion and how to View BPT - Click on Title
Posted by steve on 13th of Jun 2020 at 01:48 pm
Ciovacco Historical Perspective Charts
Once again, the above video link provides an overview referencing current stock market conditions relative to similar past readings. This would be most relevant for position investors (such as retirement accounts) to monitor on a weekly basis. This is NOT a forecast just data points at this time. Continue to keep an open mind and respect the message of the market.
Markets are fluid and subject to change as we all know - key is to establish a methodology that fits with your beliefs. You can also incorporate a hybrid approach with your portfolio by position investing certain funds for longer term (accepting volatility until EVIDENCE changes) and dedicating other funds to short term trading. Those are decisions for each individual. If you have yet to formalize an investing/trading approach please take some time to formalize a template - you can always adjust but it's best to have something in place. From there, you should formulate a PLAN that entails your objectives. Once a plan is in place, then you can refine down to which specific securities you want to invest and/or trade. This is a TOP DOWN approach that should be enacted PRIOR to looking for trades. Just like a Football team(or any sports team) - the General manager has a vision/approach on how he/she wants to build a team. Then he/she hires a coach to devise a scheme around those players to maximize their talents. Next, the coach puts into place a weekly game plan (making necessary adjustments) before finally selecting specific plays.
How does BPT come into this picture? Think of BPT like a consultant/assistant coach who helps to make your job easier along the way. We provide daily analysis of several markets which helps to provide some guidance as to how we see things. We also spend a considerable amount of time providing tips and educational examples to help execute you plan. Think of the DVT approach for swing trades and the nightly discussion of charts involving patterns and candlesticks, etc. We also scan for and offer trade suggestions (ideas) that we believe are valid setups and we take time to review the triggered setups in the following days. Partake in only the ideas that fit into your plan and simply ignore ones that don't. Finally, we spend time posting relevant comments and numerous charts every day in the trading community relating to what transpiring during that trading session and updating trade ideas.
Steve, how does one access
Posted by bharvey96 on 30th of Sep 2020 at 01:35 pm
Steve, how does one access the "Ciovacco Historical Perspective Charts?" I would imagine you need to be a client?
He puts out a weekly
Posted by steve on 30th of Sep 2020 at 01:41 pm
He puts out a weekly video via Twitter on Friday Night
Hi Matt/steve, is today highly
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 16th of Jun 2020 at 09:18 am
Hi Matt/steve, is today highly likely to be a trend day?
McClellan Systems closed out
Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 04:10 pm
you can see the trades on SPX upper left and the IWM 2nd entry at the bottom right. Stats show the SPX. The IWM is similar
Hi Matt... are the McClellan
Posted by bhst024 on 20th of Jul 2021 at 09:55 pm
Hi Matt... are the McClellan Systems posted somewhere on your website or do we just have to pay attention to the posts on the Community page. Will McClellan system open and closes be posted to the SMS alerts? Thanks for all you do!
they are not listed on
Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 10:20 pm
they are not listed on the website yet. Though I'm going to add a section to the Systems section area. I'm not sure if I plan to send them out, I may do so, but at first I'll be adding some general info to that section describing them along with some examples
I can also add those
Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 10:25 pm
I can also add those McClellan systems to smaller time frames, for example here's a 60 min chart of SPX, you can see the trades it's taken (more than the daily). LOL looks like it took 4 entries yesterday. Clearly I'm not setup to send out signals to intra day systems like that. The only way that would work would be to have one ones computer to have it fully automated take the trades itself
Here's the statistics on all
Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 04:30 pm
Here's the statistics on all 4 Index McClellan Bollinger Band stats. Mostly the same. Otherwise the data goes back much further on the SPX to 1980, but much less so on the others with the Russell data going back the least
20 k share blocks bid
Posted by retirefire on 20th of Jul 2021 at 04:03 pm
20 k share blocks bid at 2.80 woke AAZZF up
Is that a VIX buy signal
Posted by lsherrer on 20th of Jul 2021 at 03:51 pm
Is that a VIX buy signal I see?
100 point bounces? Geezsh
Posted by profmel on 20th of Jul 2021 at 03:27 pm
100 point bounces? Geezsh Got to give it up to the algo boys -- trading to the penny off of Matt's charts :) That TICK chart is worth the cost of admission!
glad you find that useful,
Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 04:03 pm
glad you find that useful, yes price got pretty close to that next pivot - let me rephrase that it did. that next Tick pivot is 4339, the high was 4337, so 2 points. I like to use +/- 3/5 points with those. The 4307 is now support since we are above it
Updated view on this 60 min and MA ribbon
Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 03:19 pm
that's the look - it's hard to quantify that in a system with numbers, but visually is very obvious when you see the MA ribbon and BPT MA deluxe like that, and of course the 13 Demark was just icing on the cake
FOLD lookin' nice!
Posted by Trendie on 20th of Jul 2021 at 02:38 pm
FOLD lookin' nice!
ASPS back above horizontal support
Posted by timebandit on 20th of Jul 2021 at 02:26 pm
ASPS back above horizontal support
$VIX has a chance of
Posted by timebandit on 20th of Jul 2021 at 02:23 pm
$VIX has a chance of closing within the upper band if the market holds up into the close. Currently at 20.17, while the upper band is at 20.45
SPY System: Another winner! If
Posted by steverobin on 20th of Jul 2021 at 02:15 pm
SPY System: Another winner! If you only took these trades the site is a Homerun!
Shorting XLB here. Chart is
Posted by timebandit on 20th of Jul 2021 at 01:58 pm
Shorting XLB here. Chart is from last night's newsletter, updated to today
Ok, timebandit, you were right-on,
Posted by Ray on 20th of Jul 2021 at 02:27 pm
Ok, timebandit, you were right-on, with the 61.8 Fib on the SPY trade; so, I will join you on this one. It looks vulnerable.
Jury is still out on
Posted by timebandit on 20th of Jul 2021 at 03:04 pm
Jury is still out on SPY and the markets. Breadth has been strong. I don't regret taking profits where I did, and you're right that XLB looks vulnerable, but I'm feeling pretty cautious on the short side here with the earnings wild cards in the mix
Thanks! Grabbed some and up
Posted by jackbnimble on 20th of Jul 2021 at 02:23 pm
Thanks! Grabbed some and up so far
AAZZF is testing an up-channel
Posted by Trendie on 20th of Jul 2021 at 01:31 pm
AAZZF is testing an up-channel on my daily. Don't like that it's sat for so long on that line. Needs to hold here. That 200 SMA is a long way down there.
Sorry. Not an up channel.
Posted by Trendie on 20th of Jul 2021 at 01:32 pm
Sorry. Not an up channel. Just trendline support as I drew it.
Yeah AAZZF needs to bounce.
Posted by retirefire on 20th of Jul 2021 at 02:17 pm
Yeah AAZZF needs to bounce. Or buy weakness ?
How do I get system
Posted by xxkumarxx on 20th of Jul 2021 at 01:27 pm
How do I get system trade alerts on my phone. I generally miss them as I can only get to review after close and next day most of the time the trade has moved significantly.
go to Account on the
Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 01:30 pm
go to Account on the website, click on SMS button
https://breakpointtrades.com/stats/alert_manager/
click on SMS preferences - you have to add membership, then it will have you input your phone number - you then have to check your phone for a code that the systems sends to you for verification, and you have to come back to that section and enter the verification code to confirm
Very helpful - I've just
Posted by foody518 on 20th of Jul 2021 at 03:21 pm
Very helpful - I've just gone and added this as well
Hey, Matt; Thanks for the
Posted by Ray on 20th of Jul 2021 at 01:16 pm
Hey, Matt; Thanks for the SPY Call System trade. Got out at 61.8 Fib. (See market is pulling back a little now.) In any case, I made enough from this one trade to keep up my subscription for many years in the future!
FB retesting trendline breakdown. Tempted
Posted by timebandit on 20th of Jul 2021 at 12:52 pm
FB retesting trendline breakdown. Tempted to short this with a small position. Reports after the close 7/27 or on 7/28 (seeing different information)
Did not take this short.
Posted by timebandit on 20th of Jul 2021 at 02:18 pm
Did not take this short. Market a little too strong for me at the moment
Question answered
Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 12:41 pm
someone asked me how could they trim a position if they only bought 1 option, that's true you can't split an option
that's why for options if you wish to have that 'trim' opportunity in the future do more than 1 option as your baseline multiple for the 1st entry. Remember I show 1 as a baseline structure, with the 2nd entry as double the 1st and the 3rd as triple the first.
1st, 2nd, 3rd entries: 1, 2, 3. or 2, 4, 6, or 3, 6, 9, or 5, 10, 15 and so on following that 1,2,3 multiple - those are examples of following that multiple
it's whatever fits your risk profile and account size guys
Trim single option position -
Posted by jtsurfah on 20th of Jul 2021 at 12:46 pm
Trim single option position - a couple of ways to trim a profitable single option position while still allowing for some upside is to either "cover" the position (sell a call against it) or "collar" it (sell a call and buy a put). I typically just sell a call...often near or in the money.
jtsurfah, thanks for the idea.
Posted by craigm on 20th of Jul 2021 at 05:01 pm
jtsurfah, thanks for the idea. I sold a call near the close before the EOD drop.
Nice trade...for now anyway
Posted by jtsurfah on 21st of Jul 2021 at 12:28 am
Nice trade...for now anyway Starting with a long call into an oversold situation and covering it to take in some premium once the easy money is made is one of my favorite ways to get into a bullish spread tread. Depending on the circumstances, if you get the initial move you expect, you can often sell a call against the naked call that will completely eliminate possibility of any losses on the overall trade (other than a portion of unrealized gains), but still alow for some upside in the form of premium. Or you can take some more risk and sell an out of the money call for a lot more potential pop (if you're right).
yep that's a good point,
Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 12:55 pm
yep that's a good point, you can do creative things using spreads etc, which I'm not an expert of, but yes
Thanks, or you could simply
Posted by mkrajah1211 on 21st of Jul 2021 at 11:26 am
Thanks, or you could simply just delta hedge half of your position i.e sell 50 SPY shares/CFD's to effectively "lock in" half of your option call contract. Once you fully close out the option you can then just close out the half SPY portion with it
I'm going to keep it
Posted by retirefire on 21st of Jul 2021 at 11:38 am
I'm going to keep it simple and just buy 2 options.
@Matt - just curious what
Posted by shinings on 20th of Jul 2021 at 12:29 pm
@Matt - just curious what will trigger the currently open SPY trend/pull back trade to exit?
in the meantime aazzf maybe
Posted by morton7 on 20th of Jul 2021 at 12:09 pm
in the meantime aazzf maybe a falling wedge pattern on the hourly....
hoping for some news soon
Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 12:27 pm
hoping for some news soon on AAZZF - let's hope, would like to see a reversal from this downtrend
Market update
Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 11:48 am
$SPX - Chart Link- 5 min, price trying for that gap fill
$SPX - Chart Link- we blew through two TICK pivots today. The next one is so far up that it's not worth discussing at this stage, best to focus on that fill from yesterday and other stuff
Market may want next TICK
Posted by mitchell on 20th of Jul 2021 at 12:34 pm
Market may want next TICK if strength continues. Strong buy dip programs today.
Update: Market update
Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 12:05 pm
$SPX - Chart Link- filled the gaparoo
amen brother!
Posted by morton7 on 20th of Jul 2021 at 12:07 pm
amen brother!
great job Matt! Im out...thx
Posted by morton7 on 20th of Jul 2021 at 12:03 pm
great job Matt! Im out...thx
SPY System update
Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 11:35 am
Quick update on yesterday's SPY system 1st entry
As you know we use both versions of the Trend/Pullback. I'll exit 50% of this system trade when the system at the top of this image exits, it's the one that is easier to exit to reduce risk. Even with today's rally the aggressive exit version will not be exiting, however it could do so tomorrow should the market be up slightly.
currently on the SPY Trend/Pullback
Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 12:36 pm
currently on the SPY Trend/Pullback the aggressive exit version needs a close above the 8 day SMA to exit. Trying to get a hold of my programmer, I want him to add an EMA option to that, I want to also test the 8 and 9 EMA against that to see which is better. Price may be closing over the 8 or 9 EMA today but NOT the 8 SMA, so I wish to test that. If the 25 year history ends up favoring the EMA over the SMA I'll switch to that and send a trade alert out
so I got the code
Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 01:35 pm
so I got the code update, ran the backtest back to 1995 testing the 7- 10 SMA along with the 7 - 10 EMA as short term exit
here's the results. The image, the area in gray is what we use the 8 SMA. The test that made the most money was using the 10 SMA but max draw down goes away up for obvious reasons.
The 8 SMA appears to be just slightly better than the 8 EMA.
The 9 EMA is slightly better with an 11 profit favtor, and the 10 EMA is the best overall with a 12 profit factor and same max draw down.
Currently the 9 EMA on the SPY is 431.58, current price is now 431.14 and the high was 432.08 so it was above that intra day
Which are you intending to
Posted by jackbnimble on 20th of Jul 2021 at 03:44 pm
Which are you intending to use as the exit for “Harder-to-enter, easier-to-exit” system trade currently long?
the 9 EMA - too
Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 03:57 pm
the 9 EMA - too bad price won't be closing over it, it was above it 15 min ago.
as far as which systems? I've made that clear many times, I use both. I use the harder to enter a long position. For exiting that position I then I use the (easier to exit version ) to exit 1/2 the trade (usually the option) and keep long the ETF based on the one that holds longer as it makes more profit, and I place a stop at entry.
follow up on the new ones last night
Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2021 at 11:23 am
CYDY - Chart Link-
MBI - Chart Link-
Update: follow up on the new ones last night
Posted by matt on 21st of Jul 2021 at 12:27 pm
FND - Chart Link- nice moves on these
EQH - Chart Link-
Update: Update: follow up on the new ones last night
Posted by matt on 21st of Jul 2021 at 12:43 pm
SEER - Chart Link- also this one