Markets are fluid and subject to change as we all know - key is
to establish a methodology that fits with your beliefs. You
can also incorporate a hybrid approach with your portfolio by
position investing certain funds for longer term (accepting
volatility until EVIDENCE changes) and dedicating other funds to
short term trading. Those are decisions for each individual.
If you have yet to formalize an investing/trading approach
please take some time to formalize a template - you can always
adjust but it's best to have something in place. From there,
you should formulate a PLAN that entails your objectives.
Once a plan is in place, then you can refine down to which
specific securities you want to invest and/or trade. This is
a TOP DOWN approach that should be enacted PRIOR to looking for
trades. Just like a Football team(or any sports team) - the
General manager has a vision/approach on how he/she wants to build
a team. Then he/she hires a coach to devise a scheme around those
players to maximize their talents. Next, the coach puts
into place a weekly game plan (making necessary adjustments) before
finally selecting specific plays.
How does BPT come into this picture? Think of BPT like a
consultant/assistant coach who helps to make your job easier
along the way. We provide daily analysis of several markets
which helps to provide some guidance as to how we see things.
We also spend a considerable amount of time providing tips
and educational examples to help execute you plan. Think of
the DVT approach for swing trades and the nightly discussion of
charts involving patterns and candlesticks, etc. We
also scan for and offer trade suggestions (ideas) that we believe
are valid setups and we take time to review the triggered setups in
the following days. Partake in only the ideas that fit into
your plan and simply ignore ones that don't. Finally, we
spend time posting relevant comments and numerous charts every day
in the trading community relating to what transpiring during that
trading session and updating trade ideas.
not sure what you are asking - here's an image of the KISS
charts with the cycles and ATR's etc - we'll probably see a cycle
support show up sometime on the 130 min and 1/2 day but not yet.
ATR was lost last week on the 60 min and 130 min, and this
morning lost on the 1/2 day. Still holding on the daily, getting
close at 4130 approx
Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Aug 2022 at 10:08 am
"ATR was lost last week on the 60 min and 130 min, and this
morning lost on the 1/2 day. Still holding on the daily" -
answered my question. That's what I thought but wasn't sure.
Thanks!
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Jul 2022 at 01:35 pm
Steve, agree completely. Just thinking that maybe SMH good for a
short term trade since the ribbons are so wide on most time frames
and we are sitting on major support (very very slightly below).
Looking for an entry with a stop at today's lows.
Posted by pintopower on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:06 pm
It looks like to me on the hourly chart from the beginning of
September that the SPY is doing an ending diagonal down.
If my math is correct, it has four touches so far which would
indicate that perhaps one more low to about 356 or so. If it
does that then target on a breakout of the ending diagonal would be
approximately 381 ish.
Posted by pintopower on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:52 pm
Just testing how to post a chart from Thinkorswim. Pink
lines are ending diagonal; yellow oval would be hypothetical 5th
touch and light blue lines would be the Target. Let's see if
this test works?!
Posted by makarolya on 27th of Sep 2022 at 01:09 pm
Hi, Steve! I took SSO for long trade per system signal yesterday
and day before, and now wondering - is there a stop loss you
recommend? Do you announce stop loss when trades goes in the red? I
am still new to trading systems and trying to learn the underwater
currents. Thanks
They don’t do stop losses. They have first, second, and third
entires ( occasionally) and they buy twice as much at second entry,
3x on third entry. Their system is very effective if you take all
of the trades, not so much if you just take the ones you want. Hope
that helps.
Updated levels above - the June-July trendline was lost late
yesterday after numerous tests and this has given way to additional
selling as one would expect.
Support zone 3853-63 (watching for a reaction here) then
3842
Back up and see that futures are back down near session lows -
trailing stops on all remaining shorts. HUGE PAYDAY - shared
my plan well in advance yesterday
YES - a higher low is absolutely possible (ES support 3680
holding) and thus why I elected to lock in most gains and trail
stops. Both scenarios called for lower prices so loaded
shorts yesterday and will manage today. Rallies in this
market are a gift UNTIL evidence (structure) changes.
Posted by focus175 on 28th of Sep 2022 at 05:39 pm
Is anyone familiar with writing up strategies in TradingView? I
want to back test a simple strategy primarily based off
candlesticks, but after watching a number of youtube tutorials on
writing in Pinescript I find myself totally lost haha.
Other option that I mentioned to Matt would be that today's move
is a Wave A then B pullback (say 50%) then up again in Wave C prior
to Wave 5 down (this would close the 3758 gap the fundamental
posted)
Posted by mitchell on 29th of Sep 2022 at 03:26 pm
I dont want to add fuel to a fire but confusion may be related
to an earlier post stating Gray option as primary, but now appears
Red option was primary.
Posted by simple_million on 29th of Sep 2022 at 04:03 pm
"option" can't possibly be the right word here either, I think
it could sometimes be clearer when a call is being made that an
outcome is more likely than another outcome vs just talking about
what "could" happen
Hello all, it's been a wild week and today the market had a nice
snap back rally from oversold conditions.
Regarding the reversion to mean systems:
The bear long that triggered on SPY and ES - is exiting on ES,
it's holding for SPY. We are going to exit the ES long
positions from the bear long.
Systems that are holding: SPY Bear Long, SPY QE 3.2 Exhaustion,
and ES Bear Exhaustion.
Just to be safe and because this market is still really
dangerous, we're going to exit 1/2 of the SPY QE 3.2 here in after
hrs and 1/2 of the ES Bear Exhaust. Plus those two systems are up
nicely because they first entered on Monday. I'll update the trade
tables shortly but here's the table showing systems.
I know the trade we take his personal choice however when you
post your closing sales as you are today are you taking the 4 PM
close or the 5 PM as you have with other buys ?
Posted by heisenberg on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:13 pm
Hello ! Matt, your systems are very clear, thanks for your
pretty job . Perhaps, a good thing could be to put on status
of each system on line, or at least 04:10 PM if there are changes
(for people that dont follow the community), so to peolple that
trade options like me, we can have still 5 minutes to trade.
Continue like you do !!
Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:05 pm
ASPS - Steve, I think you might have posted this one way way
back. Didn't work out at the time (fighting the fed) but I've been
selling calls against it ever since and doing quite well. It's
starting to look interesting again now, IMO. I will probably take
profits on short calls and let it ride naked soon.
Posted by Breakdown on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:51 pm
It think it would be a good idea if we're told how many
positions the subsystems are adding or liquidating IN TOTAL to
lessen the confusion . This would be beneficial for those of
us here who don't necessarily trade the ES, but the SPY. I
myself trade the SPY for the ES.
Posted by lewiscook on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:33 pm
Yes, you have, Matt.
Otherwise, we all knew the market was extremely oversold, due to
bounce and that often news can be the excuse needed for technical
chart analysis to execute. This said, I hope to hear on your
newsletter tonight what you think of the BOE action today......
Thanks for all you and Steve do
Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:14 pm
I post every month or so that a "system on systems" for Matts
system trades would be very useful. If you manage your
personal portfolio with allocation profiles / percentages
or many portfolios for clients, you know why that would be
awesome. Never had a comment in return but I'm still interested in
coming up with something like that....whether rules based or
algorithmic, or both (they are sort of synonymous). Its not a
simple thing...or maybe it is and I'm just missing it. Would love
to hear if someone has a rules based approach to executing system
trades from an net liq %, buying power %, etc
basis.
Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:18 pm
From an extremely simplistic point of view, you could allocate
say 5% of portfolio to BPT system trades. Easy? Nope. How many
system trades are in play over an average time frame? How do you
account for 2nd and 3rd entries? Etc. It's a complicated
puzzle.
The systems are so simple to follow, I'm frankly lost how this
is said to be complicated.
I run a "dumb program". Enter the trades when it enters, exit
when it exits. In between do nothing, don't read news, watch the
market, or trade.
My grandson knows how to do it and he's going on 8. He's
says Papa what does the system say to do today? It's that simple.
Less is more.
If I'm already long in one trading system, I stick with it and
don't start others. I will add 2nd or 3rd entries in the system I'm
using if needed. Everything else is informational to me.
As said before specialists make money, others typically waste
time and money. Master a strategy and stick with it.
Well said Fundamentalvalues. I do though run up to 5 systems and
have a spreadsheet in which I calculate how many contracts for
every signal. With options I calculate a $ value and do those as
well.
Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Sep 2022 at 05:15 pm
Agree. I took "master a strategy and stick to it" to another
level in personal portfolios. Maybe complex to some, but it's like
mowing the lawn for me at this point.
Matt's system trades do affect how I balance these opposing
positions.
Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:39 pm
Strategy is everything. You didn't describe yours for
multiple strategies in play. What % of net liq or buying power do
you allocate per system? Have you ever been pressed (aka margin
call) with too many systems in play and second entries ?
DigiNomad, I have shared my spreadsheet with number of contracts
etc with a few members already. If you are interested please e-mail
me on mundy@iafrica.com
If this is for me, please read my full post. It is that simple
for me. No margin calls, or complicated moves otherwise, I use
cash. And set amounts for entries. Use a dollar amount or
percentage, whatever is comfortable.
I've taught my grandson, he is my new trading partne, and you
all here on the site.
Posted by retirefire on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:07 pm
Very clear on Systems, I also prepare before 4pm close. I also
have written on paper which System, what trade entry and price.
Make a templet so it's easy to follow.
Core PCE (inflation data) came in at 4.6% y-o-y last month. This
month's reading (coming Friday) is expected to be 4.7% based on
MarketWatch median forecast. All TBD.
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
Top Down Approach Discussion and how to View BPT - Click on Title
Posted by steve on 13th of Jun 2020 at 01:48 pm
Markets are fluid and subject to change as we all know - key is to establish a methodology that fits with your beliefs. You can also incorporate a hybrid approach with your portfolio by position investing certain funds for longer term (accepting volatility until EVIDENCE changes) and dedicating other funds to short term trading. Those are decisions for each individual. If you have yet to formalize an investing/trading approach please take some time to formalize a template - you can always adjust but it's best to have something in place. From there, you should formulate a PLAN that entails your objectives. Once a plan is in place, then you can refine down to which specific securities you want to invest and/or trade. This is a TOP DOWN approach that should be enacted PRIOR to looking for trades. Just like a Football team(or any sports team) - the General manager has a vision/approach on how he/she wants to build a team. Then he/she hires a coach to devise a scheme around those players to maximize their talents. Next, the coach puts into place a weekly game plan (making necessary adjustments) before finally selecting specific plays.
How does BPT come into this picture? Think of BPT like a consultant/assistant coach who helps to make your job easier along the way. We provide daily analysis of several markets which helps to provide some guidance as to how we see things. We also spend a considerable amount of time providing tips and educational examples to help execute you plan. Think of the DVT approach for swing trades and the nightly discussion of charts involving patterns and candlesticks, etc. We also scan for and offer trade suggestions (ideas) that we believe are valid setups and we take time to review the triggered setups in the following days. Partake in only the ideas that fit into your plan and simply ignore ones that don't. Finally, we spend time posting relevant comments and numerous charts every day in the trading community relating to what transpiring during that trading session and updating trade ideas.
SPX Cycles - Do we
Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Aug 2022 at 09:55 am
SPX Cycles - Do we have a sell on all time frames except the daily now?
not sure what you are
Posted by matt on 22nd of Aug 2022 at 10:03 am
not sure what you are asking - here's an image of the KISS charts with the cycles and ATR's etc - we'll probably see a cycle support show up sometime on the 130 min and 1/2 day but not yet. ATR was lost last week on the 60 min and 130 min, and this morning lost on the 1/2 day. Still holding on the daily, getting close at 4130 approx
"ATR was lost last week
Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Aug 2022 at 10:08 am
"ATR was lost last week on the 60 min and 130 min, and this morning lost on the 1/2 day. Still holding on the daily" - answered my question. That's what I thought but wasn't sure. Thanks!
Trying to hold the S2
Posted by flredsox on 26th of Jul 2022 at 12:15 pm
Trying to hold the S2 Pivot, seems like a cat hanging on to the edge of a pool
Steve, agree completely. Just thinking
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Jul 2022 at 01:35 pm
Steve, agree completely. Just thinking that maybe SMH good for a short term trade since the ribbons are so wide on most time frames and we are sitting on major support (very very slightly below). Looking for an entry with a stop at today's lows.
Just hoping you caught those
Posted by steve on 1st of Jul 2022 at 01:41 pm
Just hoping you caught those AMD and NVDA shorts
yeah and I covered them
Posted by matt on 1st of Jul 2022 at 01:52 pm
yeah and I covered them again last night
why would the VIX not
Posted by Walt on 5th of May 2022 at 04:02 pm
why would the VIX not have reached 38-39 on a day like this?
Probably because of what Steve
Posted by rfa300 on 5th of May 2022 at 04:06 pm
Probably because of what Steve posted earlier. See below
maybe meaning a lot of
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 5th of May 2022 at 04:03 pm
maybe meaning a lot of room for it to run higher?
Thanks, Matt -- appreciate it.
Posted by mstaples37 on 25th of Oct 2021 at 05:05 pm
Thanks, Matt -- appreciate it. Looking forward to seeing those things you've been working on!
Steve, how does one access
Posted by bharvey96 on 30th of Sep 2020 at 01:35 pm
Steve, how does one access the "Ciovacco Historical Perspective Charts?" I would imagine you need to be a client?
He puts out a weekly
Posted by steve on 30th of Sep 2020 at 01:41 pm
He puts out a weekly video via Twitter on Friday Night
Hi Matt/steve, is today highly
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 16th of Jun 2020 at 09:18 am
Hi Matt/steve, is today highly likely to be a trend day?
ES Levels (9/30)
Posted by steve on 5th of Sep 2022 at 10:46 am
Downside: 3639 3620-26 3609-04 3594 3582-76 3563 3542 Upside: 3685 3709 3723-25 3744-57 3775-84 3793-3801 3817 3828
ES 3755 strong pivot pulling
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:59 pm
ES 3755 strong pivot pulling back
It looks like to me
Posted by pintopower on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:06 pm
It looks like to me on the hourly chart from the beginning of September that the SPY is doing an ending diagonal down. If my math is correct, it has four touches so far which would indicate that perhaps one more low to about 356 or so. If it does that then target on a breakout of the ending diagonal would be approximately 381 ish.
pintopower - the QQQs could
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:15 pm
pintopower - the QQQs could have completed wave C today of an expanded flat for Wave 4 - same with SPX - the next PULLBACK will tell the tale
Just testing how to post
Posted by pintopower on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:52 pm
Just testing how to post a chart from Thinkorswim. Pink lines are ending diagonal; yellow oval would be hypothetical 5th touch and light blue lines would be the Target. Let's see if this test works?!
This move down was not
Posted by mirhamedali on 29th of Sep 2022 at 11:15 am
This move down was not an ending diagonal. Doesn't meet the technical definition.
You passed with flying colors
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 05:00 pm
You passed with flying colors but not an ED - I will post my views
3684 pivot achieved - main
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 10:04 am
3684 pivot achieved - main target from the pivot support
Hi, Steve! I took SSO
Posted by makarolya on 27th of Sep 2022 at 01:09 pm
Hi, Steve! I took SSO for long trade per system signal yesterday and day before, and now wondering - is there a stop loss you recommend? Do you announce stop loss when trades goes in the red? I am still new to trading systems and trying to learn the underwater currents. Thanks
makarolya -this is covered in
Posted by matt on 27th of Sep 2022 at 01:55 pm
makarolya -this is covered in the FAQ etc, however check your email, I sent you a detailed email that should help you.
I would post my answer here but intra day we like to stay market focused - I can also post here later after the market, however check your email
They don’t do stop losses.
Posted by mdgfain on 27th of Sep 2022 at 01:22 pm
They don’t do stop losses. They have first, second, and third entires ( occasionally) and they buy twice as much at second entry, 3x on third entry. Their system is very effective if you take all of the trades, not so much if you just take the ones you want. Hope that helps.
Go to the systems tab
Posted by steve on 27th of Sep 2022 at 01:16 pm
Go to the systems tab above and read all such information. These are reversion to mean systems so make sure you understand completely
ES 3639 achieved
Posted by steve on 27th of Sep 2022 at 12:29 pm
ES 3639 achieved
ES levels updated yesterday
Posted by steve on 26th of Sep 2022 at 08:47 am
ES levels updated yesterday
ES nice bounce of the
Posted by steve on 23rd of Sep 2022 at 01:05 pm
ES nice bounce of the listed 3675 level
Support levels on ES around
Posted by steve on 22nd of Sep 2022 at 11:28 am
Support levels on ES around this area and just below.
ES Levels updated and comments
Posted by steve on 22nd of Sep 2022 at 09:18 am
ES Levels updated and comments from overnight below
looks like ES 3923 capped
Posted by retirefire on 21st of Sep 2022 at 03:11 pm
looks like ES 3923 capped it
ES attempting to bounce out
Posted by steve on 20th of Sep 2022 at 10:47 am
ES attempting to bounce out of the support zone 3864-3855 - if able to gain some traction then 3885 first level above
Taking some gains and trailing
Posted by steve on 20th of Sep 2022 at 11:07 am
Taking some gains and trailing stops on that bounce
Yes trail up stops further
Posted by steve on 20th of Sep 2022 at 11:55 am
Yes trail up stops further - this has some legs
thanks almost got stopped out
Posted by retirefire on 20th of Sep 2022 at 11:59 am
thanks almost got stopped out late to party.
ES stalled near first target
Posted by steve on 20th of Sep 2022 at 11:17 am
ES stalled near first target level posted 3885
ES first test of resistance
Posted by steve on 16th of Sep 2022 at 10:48 am
ES first test of resistance 3895 led to rejection
Updated levels above - the
Posted by steve on 16th of Sep 2022 at 09:00 am
Updated levels above - the June-July trendline was lost late yesterday after numerous tests and this has given way to additional selling as one would expect.
Support zone 3853-63 (watching for a reaction here) then 3842
Getting a reaction a posted
Posted by steve on 16th of Sep 2022 at 09:20 am
Getting a reaction a posted below 3863 for a bounce - all within downtrend until a previous level is reclaimed. As I said a few days, ago Buckle Up
ES Pivot around 3960 -
Posted by steve on 14th of Sep 2022 at 08:51 am
ES Pivot around 3960 - very loose and thin market so take heed in position sizing (down)
Hi Steve, the support numbers
Posted by imelhoe on 13th of Sep 2022 at 11:00 pm
Hi Steve, the support numbers don't look quite right.
Wish trading View had the
Posted by donkeyface on 12th of Sep 2022 at 10:22 pm
Wish trading View had the red/green s&r horizontals like StockCharts
Assuming these levels are updated for the new dec22 contracts? so much easier to just keep up with SPX cash levels.
SPX has another zone just
Posted by steve on 7th of Sep 2022 at 11:53 am
SPX has another zone just above at 3956-64 IF today's highs are reclaimed
Bulls in control above 3920-30
Achieved that target
Posted by steve on 7th of Sep 2022 at 01:06 pm
Achieved that target
Selling one SPY 11/18 386
Posted by srusso1 on 7th of Sep 2022 at 01:07 pm
Selling one SPY 11/18 386 call here
Likewise selling a 388 and
Posted by retirefire on 7th of Sep 2022 at 01:15 pm
Likewise selling a 388 and still holding some 380's 11/18 exp.
yes still holding some calls
Posted by srusso1 on 7th of Sep 2022 at 01:18 pm
yes still holding some calls see how this week ends ?
Nice bounce off support 3930
Posted by steve on 7th of Sep 2022 at 01:03 pm
Nice bounce off support 3930 on that pullback
Yes it is
Posted by srusso1 on 7th of Sep 2022 at 01:06 pm
Yes it is
The Bulls are the Captain
Posted by steverobin on 7th of Sep 2022 at 12:46 pm
The Bulls are the Captain now.
Bounced off the 3896-83 zone
Posted by steve on 6th of Sep 2022 at 10:41 am
Bounced off the 3896-83 zone and now Bulls need to reclaim 3928
ES back to VWAP
Posted by steve on 6th of Sep 2022 at 10:48 am
ES back to VWAP
Next level for Bulls to
Posted by steve on 6th of Sep 2022 at 11:05 am
Next level for Bulls to clear is 3940 and hold 3916 Support
Good call on 3940 resistance
Posted by steve on 6th of Sep 2022 at 12:33 pm
Good call on 3940 resistance
ES Support Now 3940 then
Posted by steve on 6th of Sep 2022 at 08:37 am
ES Support Now 3940 then 3922-28
Thanks Steve, have a nice
Posted by retirefire on 6th of Sep 2022 at 09:06 am
Thanks Steve, have a nice area below now if we open green, to monitor for Fridays new system entry's
PCE FRIDAY seems to be a
Posted by arun on 28th of Sep 2022 at 06:22 pm
PCE FRIDAY
seems to be a market mover
Definitely - see sticky post
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 06:39 pm
Definitely - see sticky post above
High Price to Earnings Scanner
Posted by fredsaid on 28th of Sep 2022 at 06:15 pm
High Price to Earnings Scanner - I posted this a while back and had to used the Search function to find it.
https://www.marketbeat.com/market-data/high-pe-stocks/
google.com
BreakPoint Trades, Unparalleled Technical Analysis for your RIA, 401K and Daytrading needs.
Cramer says don't believe the
Posted by fredsaid on 28th of Sep 2022 at 06:14 pm
Cramer says don't believe the rally .... hmmm, even Cramer get's it right sometimes ?
I have to run out and get some meds for my dad
Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2022 at 06:02 pm
still dealing with the residual effects of a recent ischemic stroke. The newsletter will be out a bit later than normal tonight
SPX 15 Views (2 Roadmaps shown) but will adjust if stronger
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 05:47 pm
$SPX - Chart Link- posted two different options here - both paths would lead to a test of the 200 Week MA (approx 3590).
The key to any view will be the NATURE of the next pullback and subsequent bounce
Big payday overnight for those
Posted by steve on 29th of Sep 2022 at 05:50 am
Big payday overnight for those who followed
Ka-ching
Posted by timebandit on 29th of Sep 2022 at 08:39 am
Ka-ching
Busy morning as well as
Posted by steve on 29th of Sep 2022 at 07:22 am
Busy morning as well as sold chunk of inverse ETFs for IRAs at 4 am
Going back to bed for awhile after long night. Hope some prospered from setup posted
Back up and see that
Posted by steve on 29th of Sep 2022 at 08:50 am
Back up and see that futures are back down near session lows - trailing stops on all remaining shorts. HUGE PAYDAY - shared my plan well in advance yesterday
Looks like a higher low
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 29th of Sep 2022 at 08:54 am
Looks like a higher low is still possible too based on current action. Nice call on the trade Steve. Let's see
YES - a higher low
Posted by steve on 29th of Sep 2022 at 08:57 am
YES - a higher low is absolutely possible (ES support 3680 holding) and thus why I elected to lock in most gains and trail stops. Both scenarios called for lower prices so loaded shorts yesterday and will manage today. Rallies in this market are a gift UNTIL evidence (structure) changes.
Could be wave B of
Posted by kobie on 29th of Sep 2022 at 09:12 am
Could be wave B of 4....with C up to come to complete Wave4?
Is anyone familiar with writing
Posted by focus175 on 28th of Sep 2022 at 05:39 pm
Is anyone familiar with writing up strategies in TradingView? I want to back test a simple strategy primarily based off candlesticks, but after watching a number of youtube tutorials on writing in Pinescript I find myself totally lost haha.
james roe here can code
Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2022 at 05:57 pm
james roe here can code up for you
Expanded Flat
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 05:29 pm
$SPX - Chart Link
QQQ - Chart Link
Other option that I mentioned to Matt would be that today's move is a Wave A then B pullback (say 50%) then up again in Wave C prior to Wave 5 down (this would close the 3758 gap the fundamental posted)
The time component favors the
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 07:05 pm
The time component favors the gray option for a larger 4th wave the other option is for short term view of Wave 3 extending
I dont want to add
Posted by mitchell on 29th of Sep 2022 at 03:26 pm
I dont want to add fuel to a fire but confusion may be related to an earlier post stating Gray option as primary, but now appears Red option was primary.
"option" can't possibly be the
Posted by simple_million on 29th of Sep 2022 at 04:03 pm
"option" can't possibly be the right word here either, I think it could sometimes be clearer when a call is being made that an outcome is more likely than another outcome vs just talking about what "could" happen
i was thinking we might
Posted by arun on 28th of Sep 2022 at 05:37 pm
i was thinking we might fill the gap. i guess not
arun - refresh the blog
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 05:41 pm
arun - refresh the blog as I added comments
Systems update and trade notification
Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:48 pm
Hello all, it's been a wild week and today the market had a nice snap back rally from oversold conditions.
Regarding the reversion to mean systems:
The bear long that triggered on SPY and ES - is exiting on ES, it's holding for SPY. We are going to exit the ES long positions from the bear long.
Systems that are holding: SPY Bear Long, SPY QE 3.2 Exhaustion, and ES Bear Exhaustion.
Just to be safe and because this market is still really dangerous, we're going to exit 1/2 of the SPY QE 3.2 here in after hrs and 1/2 of the ES Bear Exhaust. Plus those two systems are up nicely because they first entered on Monday. I'll update the trade tables shortly but here's the table showing systems.
System trades update
Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:32 pm
here's the current prices on them: not bad actually considering everything
Great. Thx & bravo
Posted by watcdy on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:35 pm
Great. Thx & bravo
QQQ 60
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:28 pm
QQQ - Chart Link- took some hedges
I know the trade we
Posted by watcdy on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:26 pm
I know the trade we take his personal choice however when you post your closing sales as you are today are you taking the 4 PM close or the 5 PM as you have with other buys ?
Hello ! Matt, your systems
Posted by heisenberg on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:13 pm
Hello ! Matt, your systems are very clear, thanks for your pretty job . Perhaps, a good thing could be to put on status of each system on line, or at least 04:10 PM if there are changes (for people that dont follow the community), so to peolple that trade options like me, we can have still 5 minutes to trade. Continue like you do !!
KISS stuff
Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:07 pm
showing the 4 time frames on SPX:
yesterday we had that Demark 9 on 1/2 day and 13 on the 130 min.
The 60 min had the amateur selling, which marked a nice low - price now logically stalling at the ATR here
ASPS - Steve, I think
Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:05 pm
ASPS - Steve, I think you might have posted this one way way back. Didn't work out at the time (fighting the fed) but I've been selling calls against it ever since and doing quite well. It's starting to look interesting again now, IMO. I will probably take profits on short calls and let it ride naked soon.
It think it would be
Posted by Breakdown on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:51 pm
It think it would be a good idea if we're told how many positions the subsystems are adding or liquidating IN TOTAL to lessen the confusion . This would be beneficial for those of us here who don't necessarily trade the ES, but the SPY. I myself trade the SPY for the ES.
We already do that -
Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:59 pm
We already do that - all year long I have been saying which systems and parts we are exiting or entering
come on guys - if you are going to follow the systems, you need to also be disciplined about it and pay attention
Yes, you have, Matt. Otherwise,
Posted by lewiscook on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:33 pm
Yes, you have, Matt.
Otherwise, we all knew the market was extremely oversold, due to bounce and that often news can be the excuse needed for technical chart analysis to execute. This said, I hope to hear on your newsletter tonight what you think of the BOE action today...... Thanks for all you and Steve do
I post every month or
Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:14 pm
I post every month or so that a "system on systems" for Matts system trades would be very useful. If you manage your personal portfolio with allocation profiles / percentages or many portfolios for clients, you know why that would be awesome. Never had a comment in return but I'm still interested in coming up with something like that....whether rules based or algorithmic, or both (they are sort of synonymous). Its not a simple thing...or maybe it is and I'm just missing it. Would love to hear if someone has a rules based approach to executing system trades from an net liq %, buying power %, etc basis.
From an extremely simplistic point
Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:18 pm
From an extremely simplistic point of view, you could allocate say 5% of portfolio to BPT system trades. Easy? Nope. How many system trades are in play over an average time frame? How do you account for 2nd and 3rd entries? Etc. It's a complicated puzzle.
The systems are so simple
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:29 pm
The systems are so simple to follow, I'm frankly lost how this is said to be complicated.
I run a "dumb program". Enter the trades when it enters, exit when it exits. In between do nothing, don't read news, watch the market, or trade.
My grandson knows how to do it and he's going on 8. He's says Papa what does the system say to do today? It's that simple. Less is more.
If I'm already long in one trading system, I stick with it and don't start others. I will add 2nd or 3rd entries in the system I'm using if needed. Everything else is informational to me.
As said before specialists make money, others typically waste time and money. Master a strategy and stick with it.
Well said Fundamentalvalues. I do
Posted by mundy on 28th of Sep 2022 at 07:46 pm
Well said Fundamentalvalues. I do though run up to 5 systems and have a spreadsheet in which I calculate how many contracts for every signal. With options I calculate a $ value and do those as well.
Agree. I took "master a
Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Sep 2022 at 05:15 pm
Agree. I took "master a strategy and stick to it" to another level in personal portfolios. Maybe complex to some, but it's like mowing the lawn for me at this point.
Matt's system trades do affect how I balance these opposing positions.
Thanks for sharing man
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 28th of Sep 2022 at 05:57 pm
Thanks for sharing man
Strategy is everything. You didn't
Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:39 pm
Strategy is everything. You didn't describe yours for multiple strategies in play. What % of net liq or buying power do you allocate per system? Have you ever been pressed (aka margin call) with too many systems in play and second entries ?
DigiNomad, I have shared my
Posted by mundy on 28th of Sep 2022 at 07:39 pm
DigiNomad, I have shared my spreadsheet with number of contracts etc with a few members already. If you are interested please e-mail me on mundy@iafrica.com
If this is for me,
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:50 pm
If this is for me, please read my full post. It is that simple for me. No margin calls, or complicated moves otherwise, I use cash. And set amounts for entries. Use a dollar amount or percentage, whatever is comfortable.
I've taught my grandson, he is my new trading partne, and you all here on the site.
And I also assume this
Posted by mirhamedali on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:12 pm
And I also assume this is updated real time:
https://breakpointtrades.com/spy_trades/
I personally maintain a google sheet to keep track of the alerts real time.
Matt it might be a good idea to embed a google sheet onto the tracking page.
Very clear on Systems, I
Posted by retirefire on 28th of Sep 2022 at 04:07 pm
Very clear on Systems, I also prepare before 4pm close. I also have written on paper which System, what trade entry and price. Make a templet so it's easy to follow.
SPX 1 Updated
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:43 pm
$SPX - Chart Link
System Exits ?
Posted by fredsaid on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:32 pm
System Exits ?
read below man
Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:34 pm
read below man
PUT THIS ON YOUR CALENDER - PCE FRIDAY
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:21 pm
Core PCE (inflation data) came in at 4.6% y-o-y last month. This month's reading (coming Friday) is expected to be 4.7% based on MarketWatch median forecast. All TBD.
Just another 100 point range
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:15 pm
Just another 100 point range day for ES . Last night's ES Pivot support 3612 produced a big response (aided of course by the BOE)
SPX 60
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:09 pm
$SPX - Chart Link- comments directly below relate to this chart
SPX notice the break of the accelerated channel which signified and short term trend change..squeeze continues
Gap magnet at 3,757. Gap
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:12 pm
Gap magnet at 3,757. Gap master out haha
oh i likes that number
Posted by fredsaid on 28th of Sep 2022 at 03:18 pm
oh i likes that number - giddiyup !