Here's the scenario I discussed in Thursday's newsletter but I
didn't market it up. Because of the daily symmetry break there is
higher odds now of a lower high forming. Under this scenario the
move down could be wave A, and we are unfolding in an abc bounce to
complete wave B lower high (supported by the symmetry break) and
once that's complete a move down for wave C. If you recall, we've
been showing such a scenario on the weekly QQQ's, see the last
chart
Wave B's often retrace 50% to 61.8%, however they can retrace
more than that and with the market one thing Steve and I have
noticed is that moves are more exaggerated these days. A move
down could take the SPX back to that long term support and demand
zone
$SPX - Chart Link weekly chart, if the
wave count is correct, basically once this wave B is over, you get
a move down to those major support zones
$SPX - Chart Link - this daily chart is
interesting, that broken trendline is another area that could be
retested if the SPX did a larger retracement than a 61.8% fib -
perhaps retest that trendline
QQQ - Chart Link - here's that weekly
QQQ's chart that we've been showing since last fall - this
basically shows the same scenario
Late to the party, but watching the Yen, Steve, is that an
leading diagonal, and if so, what makes it so, and what would have
negated it.
I posit that the global community is punishing Japan for not
pursuing "their" economic policy, but I am a conspiracy theorist (3
weeks short of conspiracy fact)
I went long NVDA, too, after META, GOOGL and MSFT all raised
capex on AI. Closed above 20, 50, 200 daily SMAs, 5 & 9 daily
EMAs, and approaching 61.8% ($890.75) retrace of $756.06-$974
low/high. Notable that KISS didn't go long (unless not yet
updated).
Matt/Steve, your opinion on NVDA would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks much,
regarding your NVDA it looks okay, but refer to my big post on
the possible scenario for the SPX, if that were to unfold, then I
don't see how NVDA would not make a lower high
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Apr 2024 at 01:19 pm
I don't understand what they're selling but the valuation
doesn't scream "short me" -- it looks pretty reasonable on a
fundamental basis. Again, I don't get it - I guess I'm too old or
something - but it triggers as a buy for me on a lot of fundamental
screens. That doesn't mean they aren't doing something weird
with their financials...that's always a possibility, especially
with head scratchers, like this one.
RSG - Chart Link long idea last week where
the KISS system also set a tight stop, nice trade so far, make sure
to have stops in place or lock in some gains
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Apr 2024 at 11:38 am
DXYZ - I scalped about 50% on this sucker, but I'm still not
sure how it's legal to start with. And it didn't get better when
the details came out. Maybe interesting around $9.
GS weekly - looks like
Posted by foody518 on 27th of Apr 2024 at 12:20 am
GS weekly - looks like a bull flag continuation breakout
SPX and one scenario the abc
Posted by matt on 26th of Apr 2024 at 09:19 pm
Here's the scenario I discussed in Thursday's newsletter but I didn't market it up. Because of the daily symmetry break there is higher odds now of a lower high forming. Under this scenario the move down could be wave A, and we are unfolding in an abc bounce to complete wave B lower high (supported by the symmetry break) and once that's complete a move down for wave C. If you recall, we've been showing such a scenario on the weekly QQQ's, see the last chart
Wave B's often retrace 50% to 61.8%, however they can retrace more than that and with the market one thing Steve and I have noticed is that moves are more exaggerated these days. A move down could take the SPX back to that long term support and demand zone
$SPX - Chart Link shows the scenario on the daily SPX
SPY - Chart Link same scenario but on the SPY
$SPX - Chart Link weekly chart, if the wave count is correct, basically once this wave B is over, you get a move down to those major support zones
$SPX - Chart Link - this daily chart is interesting, that broken trendline is another area that could be retested if the SPX did a larger retracement than a 61.8% fib - perhaps retest that trendline
QQQ - Chart Link - here's that weekly QQQ's chart that we've been showing since last fall - this basically shows the same scenario
Have a great weekend guys,
Posted by steveo on 26th of Apr 2024 at 04:41 pm
Have a great weekend guys, I closed on a $65000 PV and whole house battery backup project, design and takeoffs today, start tomorrow.
Late to the party, but
Posted by steveo on 26th of Apr 2024 at 04:40 pm
Late to the party, but watching the Yen, Steve, is that an leading diagonal, and if so, what makes it so, and what would have negated it.
I posit that the global community is punishing Japan for not pursuing "their" economic policy, but I am a conspiracy theorist (3 weeks short of conspiracy fact)
Wishing everyone a nice weekend
Posted by steve on 26th of Apr 2024 at 04:01 pm
Wishing everyone a nice weekend
SAme! Thanks guys!!
Posted by breakout on 26th of Apr 2024 at 04:02 pm
SAme! Thanks guys!!
from me as well, man
Posted by matt on 26th of Apr 2024 at 04:02 pm
from me as well, man was a boring day!
enjoy the rest of your Friday and have a good weekend!
Boring days are fine when
Posted by mastermind on 26th of Apr 2024 at 04:41 pm
Boring days are fine when I’m in Hawaii, but I didn’t find my 3% gain today to be boring.
where you at cousin
Posted by steveo on 26th of Apr 2024 at 04:42 pm
where you at cousin
Boy AAPL has an UGLY
Posted by rbreese on 26th of Apr 2024 at 03:45 pm
Boy AAPL has an UGLY candle today.
MSFT had a pretty weak
Posted by DK on 26th of Apr 2024 at 04:32 pm
MSFT had a pretty weak close itself. Interesting
Might just get a buy
Posted by mastermind on 26th of Apr 2024 at 03:24 pm
Might just get a buy on ANF too, defying the bears.
Anticipating an NVDA buy on
Posted by mastermind on 26th of Apr 2024 at 03:19 pm
Anticipating an NVDA buy on the STS today. Well, I bought back in anyway.
I went long NVDA, too,
Posted by te22 on 26th of Apr 2024 at 05:36 pm
I went long NVDA, too, after META, GOOGL and MSFT all raised capex on AI. Closed above 20, 50, 200 daily SMAs, 5 & 9 daily EMAs, and approaching 61.8% ($890.75) retrace of $756.06-$974 low/high. Notable that KISS didn't go long (unless not yet updated). Matt/Steve , your opinion on NVDA would be greatly appreciated. Thanks much,
regarding your NVDA it looks
Posted by matt on 26th of Apr 2024 at 09:20 pm
regarding your NVDA it looks okay, but refer to my big post on the possible scenario for the SPX, if that were to unfold, then I don't see how NVDA would not make a lower high
SPY Views
Posted by steve on 26th of Apr 2024 at 03:15 pm
SPY - Chart Link
SPY - Chart Link
RBRK ... New IPO this
Posted by mla127 on 26th of Apr 2024 at 01:50 pm
RBRK ... New IPO this week ...
ANF - Watching for another
Posted by mla127 on 26th of Apr 2024 at 12:44 pm
ANF - Watching for another short entry on this overinflated joke ... heading into stiffer horizontal resistance and it`s flat 50dma
I don't understand what they're
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Apr 2024 at 01:19 pm
I don't understand what they're selling but the valuation doesn't scream "short me" -- it looks pretty reasonable on a fundamental basis. Again, I don't get it - I guess I'm too old or something - but it triggers as a buy for me on a lot of fundamental screens. That doesn't mean they aren't doing something weird with their financials...that's always a possibility, especially with head scratchers, like this one.
Posted by mla127 on 26th of Apr 2024 at 03:45 pm
Its hard to imagine that
Posted by steveo on 26th of Apr 2024 at 04:37 pm
Its hard to imagine that any retail is doing stelllar??? Am I missing something??
SPX 10m ...
Posted by mla127 on 26th of Apr 2024 at 12:26 pm
SPX 10m ...
US Dollar bull flag
Posted by matt on 26th of Apr 2024 at 12:06 pm
$USD - Chart Link- definitely has that bull flag look...
SPX 5 min
Posted by matt on 26th of Apr 2024 at 12:03 pm
$SPX - Chart Link kind of a H&S look there, anyway something to monitor if it breaks that trendline
otherwise being a Friday, I'm hoping the market just does nothing the rest of the day
RSG follow up
Posted by matt on 26th of Apr 2024 at 11:52 am
RSG - Chart Link long idea last week where the KISS system also set a tight stop, nice trade so far, make sure to have stops in place or lock in some gains
HP KISS - @Matt -
Posted by rgmclm on 26th of Apr 2024 at 11:43 am
HP KISS - @Matt - When are you planning to roll the HP Kiss system out?
XBI, LABU
Posted by matt on 26th of Apr 2024 at 11:43 am
XBI - Chart Link- interesting with that last low, RSI divergence setting up
LABU - Chart Link- here's a 2hr view, you have pretty good MACD and RSI divergence
Bitcoin
Posted by matt on 26th of Apr 2024 at 11:40 am
$BTCUSD - Chart Link- 4hr
$BTCUSD - Chart Link- daily - again that 60K area needs to hold, otherwise it's gonna drop to low 50's
DXYZ - I scalped about
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Apr 2024 at 11:38 am
DXYZ - I scalped about 50% on this sucker, but I'm still not sure how it's legal to start with. And it didn't get better when the details came out. Maybe interesting around $9.
ADBE follow up
Posted by matt on 26th of Apr 2024 at 11:37 am
ADBE - Chart Link- nice, still needs to close above the 20 MA though