3309 Drysdale Ct
Edwardsville, IL 62025
Markets are fluid and subject to change as we all know - key is
to establish a methodology that fits with your beliefs. You
can also incorporate a hybrid approach with your portfolio by
position investing certain funds for longer term (accepting
volatility until EVIDENCE changes) and dedicating other funds to
short term trading. Those are decisions for each individual.
If you have yet to formalize an investing/trading approach
please take some time to formalize a template - you can always
adjust but it's best to have something in place. From there,
you should formulate a PLAN that entails your objectives.
Once a plan is in place, then you can refine down to which
specific securities you want to invest and/or trade. This is
a TOP DOWN approach that should be enacted PRIOR to looking for
trades. Just like a Football team(or any sports team) - the
General manager has a vision/approach on how he/she wants to build
a team. Then he/she hires a coach to devise a scheme around those
players to maximize their talents. Next, the coach puts
into place a weekly game plan (making necessary adjustments) before
finally selecting specific plays.
How does BPT come into this picture? Think of BPT like a
consultant/assistant coach who helps to make your job easier
along the way. We provide daily analysis of several markets
which helps to provide some guidance as to how we see things.
We also spend a considerable amount of time providing tips
and educational examples to help execute you plan. Think of
the DVT approach for swing trades and the nightly discussion of
charts involving patterns and candlesticks, etc. We
also scan for and offer trade suggestions (ideas) that we believe
are valid setups and we take time to review the triggered setups in
the following days. Partake in only the ideas that fit into
your plan and simply ignore ones that don't. Finally, we
spend time posting relevant comments and numerous charts every day
in the trading community relating to what transpiring during that
trading session and updating trade ideas.
SPX Cycles - Do we have a sell on all time frames except the
not sure what you are asking - here's an image of the KISS
charts with the cycles and ATR's etc - we'll probably see a cycle
support show up sometime on the 130 min and 1/2 day but not yet.
ATR was lost last week on the 60 min and 130 min, and this
morning lost on the 1/2 day. Still holding on the daily, getting
close at 4130 approx
"ATR was lost last week on the 60 min and 130 min, and this
morning lost on the 1/2 day. Still holding on the daily" -
answered my question. That's what I thought but wasn't sure.
Trying to hold the S2 Pivot, seems like a cat hanging on to the
edge of a pool
Steve, agree completely. Just thinking that maybe SMH good for a
short term trade since the ribbons are so wide on most time frames
and we are sitting on major support (very very slightly below).
Looking for an entry with a stop at today's lows.
Just hoping you caught those AMD and NVDA shorts
yeah and I covered them again last night
why would the VIX not have reached 38-39 on a day like this?
Probably because of what Steve posted earlier. See below
maybe meaning a lot of room for it to run higher?
Thanks, Matt -- appreciate it. Looking forward to seeing
those things you've been working on!
Steve, how does one access the "Ciovacco Historical
Perspective Charts?" I would imagine you need to be a
He puts out a weekly video via Twitter on Friday Night
Hi Matt/steve, is today highly likely to be a trend day?
Downside: 3639 3620-26 3609-04 3594 3582-76
3563 3542 Upside: 3685 3709 3723-25 3744-57
3775-84 3793-3801 3817 3828
ES 3755 strong pivot pulling back
It looks like to me on the hourly chart from the beginning of
September that the SPY is doing an ending diagonal down.
If my math is correct, it has four touches so far which would
indicate that perhaps one more low to about 356 or so. If it
does that then target on a breakout of the ending diagonal would be
approximately 381 ish.
pintopower - the QQQs could have completed wave C today of an
expanded flat for Wave 4 - same with SPX - the next PULLBACK
will tell the tale
Just testing how to post a chart from Thinkorswim. Pink
lines are ending diagonal; yellow oval would be hypothetical 5th
touch and light blue lines would be the Target. Let's see if
this test works?!
This move down was not an ending diagonal. Doesn't meet the
You passed with flying colors but not an ED - I will post my
3684 pivot achieved - main target from the pivot
Hi, Steve! I took SSO for long trade per system signal yesterday
and day before, and now wondering - is there a stop loss you
recommend? Do you announce stop loss when trades goes in the red? I
am still new to trading systems and trying to learn the underwater
makarolya -this is covered in the FAQ etc, however check your
email, I sent you a detailed email that should help you.
I would post my answer here but intra day we like to stay market
focused - I can also post here later after the market, however
check your email
They don’t do stop losses. They have first, second, and third
entires ( occasionally) and they buy twice as much at second entry,
3x on third entry. Their system is very effective if you take all
of the trades, not so much if you just take the ones you want. Hope
Go to the systems tab above and read all such information.
These are reversion to mean systems so make sure you
ES 3639 achieved
ES levels updated yesterday
ES nice bounce of the listed 3675 level
Support levels on ES around this area and just below.
ES Levels updated and comments from overnight below
looks like ES 3923 capped it
ES attempting to bounce out of the support zone 3864-3855
- if able to gain some traction then 3885 first level
Taking some gains and trailing stops on that bounce
Yes trail up stops further - this has some legs
thanks almost got stopped out late to party.
ES stalled near first target level posted 3885
ES first test of resistance 3895 led to rejection
Updated levels above - the June-July trendline was lost late
yesterday after numerous tests and this has given way to additional
selling as one would expect.
Support zone 3853-63 (watching for a reaction here) then
Getting a reaction a posted below 3863 for a bounce - all within
downtrend until a previous level is reclaimed. As I
said a few days, ago Buckle Up
ES Pivot around 3960 - very loose and thin market so take heed
in position sizing (down)
Hi Steve, the support numbers don't look quite right.
Wish trading View had the red/green s&r horizontals like
Assuming these levels are updated for the new dec22 contracts?
so much easier to just keep up with SPX cash levels.
SPX has another zone just above at 3956-64 IF today's highs are
Bulls in control above 3920-30
Achieved that target
Selling one SPY 11/18 386 call here
Likewise selling a 388 and still holding some 380's 11/18
yes still holding some calls see how this week ends ?
Nice bounce off support 3930 on that pullback
Yes it is
The Bulls are the Captain now.
Bounced off the 3896-83 zone and now Bulls need to reclaim
ES back to VWAP
Next level for Bulls to clear is 3940 and hold 3916
Good call on 3940 resistance
ES Support Now 3940 then 3922-28
Thanks Steve, have a nice area below now if we open green,
to monitor for Fridays new system entry's
seems to be a market mover
Definitely - see sticky post above
High Price to Earnings Scanner - I posted this a while back and
had to used the Search function to find it.
Cramer says don't believe the rally .... hmmm, even Cramer get's
it right sometimes ?
still dealing with the residual effects of a recent ischemic
stroke. The newsletter will be out a bit later than normal
$SPX - Chart Link- posted two different options
here - both paths would lead to a test of the 200 Week MA (approx
The key to any view will be the NATURE of the next pullback and
Big payday overnight for those who followed
Busy morning as well as sold chunk of inverse ETFs for
IRAs at 4 am
Going back to bed for awhile after long night. Hope some
prospered from setup posted
Back up and see that futures are back down near session lows -
trailing stops on all remaining shorts. HUGE PAYDAY - shared
my plan well in advance yesterday
Looks like a higher low is still possible too based on current
action. Nice call on the trade Steve. Let's see
YES - a higher low is absolutely possible (ES support 3680
holding) and thus why I elected to lock in most gains and trail
stops. Both scenarios called for lower prices so loaded
shorts yesterday and will manage today. Rallies in this
market are a gift UNTIL evidence (structure) changes.
Could be wave B of 4....with C up to come to complete Wave4?
Is anyone familiar with writing up strategies in TradingView? I
want to back test a simple strategy primarily based off
candlesticks, but after watching a number of youtube tutorials on
writing in Pinescript I find myself totally lost haha.
james roe here can code up for you
$SPX - Chart Link
QQQ - Chart Link
Other option that I mentioned to Matt would be that today's move
is a Wave A then B pullback (say 50%) then up again in Wave C prior
to Wave 5 down (this would close the 3758 gap the fundamental
The time component favors the gray option for a larger 4th wave
the other option is for short term view of Wave 3
I dont want to add fuel to a fire but confusion may be related
to an earlier post stating Gray option as primary, but now appears
Red option was primary.
"option" can't possibly be the right word here either, I think
it could sometimes be clearer when a call is being made that an
outcome is more likely than another outcome vs just talking about
what "could" happen
i was thinking we might fill the gap. i guess not
arun - refresh the blog as I added comments
Hello all, it's been a wild week and today the market had a nice
snap back rally from oversold conditions.
Regarding the reversion to mean systems:
The bear long that triggered on SPY and ES - is exiting on ES,
it's holding for SPY. We are going to exit the ES long
positions from the bear long.
Systems that are holding: SPY Bear Long, SPY QE 3.2 Exhaustion,
and ES Bear Exhaustion.
Just to be safe and because this market is still really
dangerous, we're going to exit 1/2 of the SPY QE 3.2 here in after
hrs and 1/2 of the ES Bear Exhaust. Plus those two systems are up
nicely because they first entered on Monday. I'll update the trade
tables shortly but here's the table showing systems.
here's the current prices on them: not bad actually considering
Great. Thx & bravo
QQQ - Chart Link- took some hedges
I know the trade we take his personal choice however when you
post your closing sales as you are today are you taking the 4 PM
close or the 5 PM as you have with other buys ?
Hello ! Matt, your systems are very clear, thanks for your
pretty job . Perhaps, a good thing could be to put on status
of each system on line, or at least 04:10 PM if there are changes
(for people that dont follow the community), so to peolple that
trade options like me, we can have still 5 minutes to trade.
Continue like you do !!
showing the 4 time frames on SPX:
yesterday we had that Demark 9 on 1/2 day and 13 on the 130 min.
The 60 min had the amateur selling, which marked a nice low -
price now logically stalling at the ATR here
ASPS - Steve, I think you might have posted this one way way
back. Didn't work out at the time (fighting the fed) but I've been
selling calls against it ever since and doing quite well. It's
starting to look interesting again now, IMO. I will probably take
profits on short calls and let it ride naked soon.
It think it would be a good idea if we're told how many
positions the subsystems are adding or liquidating IN TOTAL to
lessen the confusion . This would be beneficial for those of
us here who don't necessarily trade the ES, but the SPY. I
myself trade the SPY for the ES.
We already do that - all year long I have been saying which
systems and parts we are exiting or entering
come on guys - if you are going to follow the systems, you need
to also be disciplined about it and pay attention
Yes, you have, Matt.
Otherwise, we all knew the market was extremely oversold, due to
bounce and that often news can be the excuse needed for technical
chart analysis to execute. This said, I hope to hear on your
newsletter tonight what you think of the BOE action today......
Thanks for all you and Steve do
I post every month or so that a "system on systems" for Matts
system trades would be very useful. If you manage your
personal portfolio with allocation profiles / percentages
or many portfolios for clients, you know why that would be
awesome. Never had a comment in return but I'm still interested in
coming up with something like that....whether rules based or
algorithmic, or both (they are sort of synonymous). Its not a
simple thing...or maybe it is and I'm just missing it. Would love
to hear if someone has a rules based approach to executing system
trades from an net liq %, buying power %, etc
From an extremely simplistic point of view, you could allocate
say 5% of portfolio to BPT system trades. Easy? Nope. How many
system trades are in play over an average time frame? How do you
account for 2nd and 3rd entries? Etc. It's a complicated
The systems are so simple to follow, I'm frankly lost how this
is said to be complicated.
I run a "dumb program". Enter the trades when it enters, exit
when it exits. In between do nothing, don't read news, watch the
market, or trade.
My grandson knows how to do it and he's going on 8. He's
says Papa what does the system say to do today? It's that simple.
Less is more.
If I'm already long in one trading system, I stick with it and
don't start others. I will add 2nd or 3rd entries in the system I'm
using if needed. Everything else is informational to me.
As said before specialists make money, others typically waste
time and money. Master a strategy and stick with it.
Well said Fundamentalvalues. I do though run up to 5 systems and
have a spreadsheet in which I calculate how many contracts for
every signal. With options I calculate a $ value and do those as
Agree. I took "master a strategy and stick to it" to another
level in personal portfolios. Maybe complex to some, but it's like
mowing the lawn for me at this point.
Matt's system trades do affect how I balance these opposing
Thanks for sharing man
Strategy is everything. You didn't describe yours for
multiple strategies in play. What % of net liq or buying power do
you allocate per system? Have you ever been pressed (aka margin
call) with too many systems in play and second entries ?
DigiNomad, I have shared my spreadsheet with number of contracts
etc with a few members already. If you are interested please e-mail
me on firstname.lastname@example.org
If this is for me, please read my full post. It is that simple
for me. No margin calls, or complicated moves otherwise, I use
cash. And set amounts for entries. Use a dollar amount or
percentage, whatever is comfortable.
I've taught my grandson, he is my new trading partne, and you
all here on the site.
And I also assume this is updated real time:
I personally maintain a google sheet to keep track of the alerts
Matt it might be a good idea to embed a google sheet onto the
Very clear on Systems, I also prepare before 4pm close. I also
have written on paper which System, what trade entry and price.
Make a templet so it's easy to follow.
System Exits ?
read below man
Core PCE (inflation data) came in at 4.6% y-o-y last month. This
month's reading (coming Friday) is expected to be 4.7% based on
MarketWatch median forecast. All TBD.
Just another 100 point range day for ES
. Last night's ES Pivot support 3612 produced a
big response (aided of course by the BOE)
$SPX - Chart Link- comments directly below
relate to this chart
SPX notice the break of the accelerated channel which signified
and short term trend change..squeeze continues
Gap magnet at 3,757. Gap master out haha
oh i likes that number - giddiyup !
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