look out below

3 min psar buy signal resulted in $9 bump in 20 min.    Didn't take the trade b\c wasn't paying attention.  Will track AH more closely now

AMD vs INTC

• The gap is enormous and widening. AMD wins on virtually every profitability metric. The only thing keeping INTCahead is legacy revenue scale — and AMD is erasing that fast.
• Debt is the elephant in the room.INTC carries $45B in debtvs. AMD's $3.2B— that's 14x more. With negative FCF most quarters, Intel has almost no room to invest aggressively while servicing that debt load.
• AMD's FCF is clean and positive($2.5B in Q1 2026 alone) — it can fund growth, buybacks, and R&D without stress. INTC burned $4.1B in the same quarter.
• INTC's gross margin volatility(swinging from 15% to 39%) reflects the brutal economics of running your own fabs. Until the foundry business matures, this will remain a drag.
• The analyst hold consensus on INTC is generous, honestly. The fundamentals relative to AMD suggest the market should be much more skeptical about Intel's recovery timeline.

And I guess I should say congrats to the SOXL shorters.

Away for the day on a getaway with my wife, so missed most of the carnage. I’ve never seem so many double digit percentage losers in a day. Quite the grenade that Anthropic threw into anything AI related.

Drop in fuel prices: The Bottom Line:Don't let the drop in crude prices fool you. The global economy is absorbing the shock of this war in cumulative waves. First came the initial oil panic; now comes the structural squeeze of expensive shipping, inflated diesel costs, and rising food prices. It’s a quiet economic drain that will persist long after the current military exchanges slow down.

Bitcoin

$BPGDM - plunged to 7, potential MACD divergence if/when it bottoms. $USD is above the upper band

A-Eye discussion on this "Friday Bottom" and ideas to look at futures Sunday night, I will almost for sure take 1 or 2 ES long, likely September if volume is similar to June.

2 BPT systems did go long. 

"Fridays are never bottoms"

That's one of those trader sayings that is true often enough to be dangerous.

What is actually true:

Institutions hate carrying risk over weekends.

So if there is fear:

• Longs liquidate Friday.
• Stops get hit Friday.
• Margin calls hit Friday.

That can create some spectacular Friday flushes.

Counterpoint:

Some major lows have occurred on Fridays because everybody wanted out before the weekend.

The real question is whether Friday's move was:

1. Initiation selling(new sellers entering)
2. Exhaustion selling(last sellers leaving)

Those are very different.

Looking at your chart

What catches my eye:

• RSI around 22 on the 1-hour.
• Large downside impulse.
• Break of the blue trendline.
• Strong rejection from your supply zone.
• Price approaching the lower channel support area around 7360–7380.

This is exactly the kind of setup where the trade feels terrible.

You've said before that many of your best futures trades were the ones that felt physically uncomfortable to enter.

The danger is that uncomfortable trades and bad trades can look identical at the moment of entry.

The distinction is whether you're entering at:

• A statistically significant support area,
• After evidence of seller exhaustion,
• With defined risk.

What I'd watch Sunday night

Bullish signs:

• Gap down that cannot continue lower.
• Large volume at new lows.
• Quick recovery back above 7480–7500.
• Failure of bears to hold fresh lows.

Bearish signs:

• Open Sunday and immediately trade below Friday's low.
• No bounce.
• Acceptance under the blue trendline.
• Strong volume accompanying further downside.

The market often gives a clue in the first few hours after the Sunday open whether Friday was a washout or merely the first leg of something larger.

Thank you!

These didn't trigger until a forced data refresh, apologies for the delay in getting you this info.

There is a new 1st Long entry into a SPY Momentum Trade, as well as a 1st Long entry into a @MES long trend trade.

The @MES Exhaust Short trade is now closed.

Big change this week as they reduced longs by 19200 contracts  and increased shorts by 627 contracts.  Silver commercials changes were modest amounts.

Hi guys, I'm at this water park drying off for a second sitting at a place to dry off checking on the market which obviously melting down, remember before I left I said the market was in a state to have a pretty good correction with that vix sell signal and the divergences, 

The exhaustion short system at this moment is looking to close out today, one hell of a short. The open spy long from the QE 3.2 is very close to exiting

...Around 7320-7370 on the chart below. Demand zone as well as rising support. A logical place for a bounce. Then again, a very impulsive decline today. Greater than my impulsive chocolate buying at the Grocery Store.  Will be interesting to see what happens in the zone I mark

UUP - breakout.

SOXL UPDATE 

Second target hit and gap fill! 

Possible double bottom on corn.