3309 Drysdale Ct
Edwardsville, IL 62025
Once again, the above video link provides an overview
referencing current stock market conditions relative to similar
past readings. This would be most relevant for position
investors (such as retirement accounts) to monitor on a weekly
This is NOT a
forecast just data points at this time. Continue to keep an
open mind and respect the message of the market.
Markets are fluid and subject to change as we all know - key is
to establish a methodology that fits with your beliefs. You
can also incorporate a hybrid approach with your portfolio by
position investing certain funds for longer term (accepting
volatility until EVIDENCE changes) and dedicating other funds to
short term trading. Those are decisions for each individual.
If you have yet to formalize an investing/trading approach
please take some time to formalize a template - you can always
adjust but it's best to have something in place. From there,
you should formulate a PLAN that entails your objectives.
Once a plan is in place, then you can refine down to which
specific securities you want to invest and/or trade. This is
a TOP DOWN approach that should be enacted PRIOR to looking for
trades. Just like a Football team(or any sports team) - the
General manager has a vision/approach on how he/she wants to build
a team. Then he/she hires a coach to devise a scheme around those
players to maximize their talents. Next, the coach puts
into place a weekly game plan (making necessary adjustments) before
finally selecting specific plays.
How does BPT come into this picture? Think of BPT like a
consultant/assistant coach who helps to make your job easier
along the way. We provide daily analysis of several markets
which helps to provide some guidance as to how we see things.
We also spend a considerable amount of time providing tips
and educational examples to help execute you plan. Think of
the DVT approach for swing trades and the nightly discussion of
charts involving patterns and candlesticks, etc. We
also scan for and offer trade suggestions (ideas) that we believe
are valid setups and we take time to review the triggered setups in
the following days. Partake in only the ideas that fit into
your plan and simply ignore ones that don't. Finally, we
spend time posting relevant comments and numerous charts every day
in the trading community relating to what transpiring during that
trading session and updating trade ideas.
Thanks, Matt -- appreciate it. Looking forward to seeing
those things you've been working on!
Steve, how does one access the "Ciovacco Historical
Perspective Charts?" I would imagine you need to be a
He puts out a weekly video via Twitter on Friday Night
Hi Matt/steve, is today highly likely to be a trend day?
I don't have much experience with options other then doing
basic buy call/put options when the Spy System triggers, but
I had the idea to look at LEAPs for Spy, with the purpose of buying
when we are in an uptrend, the S&P corrects say 10% or so and
the Spy System has triggered. The reason for a LEAP would be then I
can hold for a longer move where with buying a few months out
there's obviously the time factor decay issue. The thought is
to still sell it for a profit a few months after buying. Curious if
anyone else buys LEAPS on indexes, and how much time do you have
before time decay starts taking much effect?
I do a somewhat similar strategy w/ 3-6 mos out calls, but Ive
learned to not just 'buy and hold' options; must play the cycles. I
always remind myself the other side of an options contract is typ
an algo, so have conviction. Paper trade your strategy first...
I trade options often, though I don't trade LEAPs. If you are
considering trading options based on Matt's systems, or some other
system that is fairly short term in duration, I would recommend
shorter term contracts. As short as 2 weeks to maybe 3 months out.
My favorite type trades are Calendar spreads and Diagonal Spreads.
Before doing any of that be sure you take the time to understand
the effects of volatility on options. As an example if you buy
calls after a quick drop in price of the market, you could be
paying a large premium to intrinsic value simply for the price of
volatility. IMHO, that is the best time to sell options, not buy.
When volatility begins to drop, the price of the option will
decrease, all else being equal. Sorry if you knew all this already,
I just get nervous when the fist sentence is "I don't have
much experience with options", LOL. Read lots of books, and make a
few practice trades before using real cash. Just my two cents.
Very well stated.
One thing you can consider is to sell a higher strike call
against your long call position. That helps a little with
time decay, particularly over a long period. With a long call/
short higher strike call position, you can also consider
periodically trading in and out of the sold call position to
further enhance your performance. I've done that with shorter
term options (I have never traded LEAPs), but I can't think why
this wouldn't work with LEAPs. Bid/offer spread would
probably be a consideration. If LEAPs were less liquid,
trading in and out would be more expensive. The nice thing
about this strategy is that you can employ it even in tax deferred
Algo! Algo! Which way will you go?
BOIL bubbling up.
"Double, double toil and trouble; Fire burn and caldron
Sorry, couldn't resist, it's the time of year
- strong despite selloff in the markets
As you know for a long time many years, we've shown the MA
ribbons on Stockcharts - which are useful for nothing when they are
pinching or getting too wide, or when they flip from a bullish to
bearish configuration or vice versa.
On Tradestation since we have the BPT MA Deluxe - we place that
on the MA ribbons to give it an even more striking visual effect
for the last 1.5 years
In Tradestation we watch the BPT MA and how it stretches away
from the 4 MA Ribbon - in stockcharts - we only have the ribbon
that said - while you can see when the BPT MA Deluxe gets to far
away from the MA ribbon, it's also subjective - difficult to
I was playing around and placed Bollinger Bands on the BPT MA
Deluxe with ribbons and this appears visually to give nice signals
- most of the times when you see the BPT MA Deluxe get too
stretched away from the MA Ribbon - the BPT MA will also go outside
of the Bollinger Bands - thus giving more of an objective signal,
here's a couple examples
follow up - nice hard sell off and now nice hard bounce off that
low - question is this a wave B forms lower high etc
however I expected the bounce off those washout intra day lows
to be fairly strong - for example using the MA ribbons/BPT MA
Deluxe and BB example on a 5 min
price you see that BPT MA so far from the ribbons, typically
your bounce won't just be some small bear flag- but more of a
larger retracement - you can see how the BPT MA was also outside
the Bollinger Bands there at the low
one trigger for a long on that is either off a candle or when
the BPT MA goes green
ABNB - Chart Link- broke down to test its 200
had a sell cycle on the daily - and Demark 13 on the 1/2 day
then Armature buying
JNK - Chart Link- to me this has been my
$SPX - Chart Link- and compares it to the
the two generally are highly highly correlated to one another -
that big divergence is concerning
$VVIX fyi. Won't cross 110 unless this selling is sustained
today. Remains to be seen. UPDATE: Was just seen: $VVIX at 110.67.
A buy program this afternoon could negate that, of course
SPY - Chart Link-
$SPX - Chart Link-
QQQ - Chart Link-
DIS - Chart Link- trying this time
DIS - Chart Link-
C'mon you can do it, DIS. Let's see some follow through
As you might expect, $VIX broke out of wedge on the hourly
$SPX - Chart Link- see chart
DIS at the support line - 30-minute snapshot
$NYAD has been pretty strong today. $NAAD on the other hand
broke down out of the coil and is still below after a small bounce.
TMC is down at shelf support today.
- Bought on yesterday's gap down, which happened conveniently
after Matt mentioned it in Wednesday's newsletter. Nice so far
Z - Weekly .... Nice recovery on this week's announcement
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!