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SPX/XLP ratio

Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2024 at 07:42 pm

$SPX:XLP - Chart Link  The weakness of the SPX/XLP ratio gave an early warning for a selloff for the SPX as it was melting down hard when the SPX was still near its highs

Bitcoin, Ethereum melting down

Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2024 at 07:38 pm

$BTCUSD - Chart Link- both had ABC pullbacks on their last bounce, which was reflexive, not impulsive. 

$ETHUSD - Chart Link- Ethereum was weaker even more obvious as that abc ran right into that resistance then got smacked down hard

Crude Oil

Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2024 at 07:36 pm

NVAADV / NYTOT

Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2024 at 07:24 pm

$NYA - Chart Link that divergence at the high with respect to the NYA played out

NYMO, NAMO all closed below their BB's

Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2024 at 07:23 pm

VVIX / VIX ratio outside lower BB's

Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2024 at 07:22 pm

$VIX - Chart Link closed below its lower BB's -as you can see when this ratio closed outside its Bollinger Bands, tend to occur near price inflections 

VIX closed slightly outside its BB's

Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2024 at 07:20 pm

SPX, QQQ weekly

Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2024 at 07:18 pm

SMH, XHB lost 200 day MA

Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2024 at 07:18 pm

DBC weekly

Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2024 at 07:07 pm

Yield Curve 1.02

Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2024 at 06:59 pm

yep ES futures down about 15 points from the SPX cash close

as far as the market, this move down is either a wave 2 under the 'bulls' scenario, and wave 2's are generally very deep. Or this is a more bearish wave 3 down and will test or make new lows like it did last fall following the early Sept lower high bounce

That's not a Steve thing - Friday's are well known not to be good bottoming days. 

and as far as recession, I'm the one who's been pounding the table with that Yield Curve of mine - while pundits on CNBC have talked soft landing for the last year and continue to call it. Yield Curve was inverted the longest in history

the Stockcharts vs hasn't updated yet and I will post later after it updates, but the yield curve is now nicely above the 1.0 ratio

SPXU 60 min

Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2024 at 04:02 pm

SPXU - Chart Link- still sort of has a flag look, no MACD divergence, I wonder if this pops to fill that next gap next week? 

yeah using Sept for now. 

Sept 281K contracts traded today.  Dec 20,600 contracts traded today

you can either buy the Sept then switch them out later if these do not close out first, or pick the Dec

mean reversion does not use stops on the initial buy ins, they tend to stop out of bad trades after a bounce vs on a hard stop - I tested all those systems everywhere from Sunday and it was alway better to stop out on a bounce vs at the lows - you always got out better on a bounce

stops can come in after some time - after a mean reversion bounce and if the systems hold, they will set a stop, or the breakout uses a stop

but no stops on these trades right now, they are mean reversion

Yield Curve up, ratio is 0.04 now

Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2024 at 01:38 pm

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/10Y2YS 

the yield curve ratio was 1.0 on Wednesday and 0.99 yesterday, so a big jump today

SPX 5min

Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2024 at 01:35 pm

$SPX - Chart Link- we had some nice MACD divergence there mid day before that bounce from the wedge. 

now we'll see what happens in the afternoon - higher low or dump - onus is on the bulls because Friday's tend not to be good for bottoms 

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