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Silver big picture

Posted by matt on 13th of Mar 2025 at 04:25 pm

Here's a quarterly chart of silver - sort of like a 45 year ascending triangle

two major peaks at $50, once in the 2011 blow off move, and in 1980 when the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the  silver market and almost went bankrupt. 

That great movie from 1983 with Eddy Murphy, where those guys tried to corner the frozen orange juice market, I wonder if they got that idea from the Hunt Brothers since it was only a couple years before the move LOL

Bitcoin

Posted by matt on 13th of Mar 2025 at 04:10 pm

$BTCUSD - Chart Link- nice bounce and rejection at underside of 200 day MA

that nutso Michael Saylor - a couple weeks ago I heard him talking about the strategic Bitcoin reserve of 200,000 Bitcoins the Gov set up - his comment was that those Bitcoins would eventually be able to pay off the US National Debt and would be worth 100 trillion dollars

LOLOL give me a F-ing break.  I don't know how he's even allowed to make such statements being a public CEO. Bitcion would have to be worth 500 million for that to happen LOL

Here's the facts, if Bitcoin is ever worth 500M, then we are probably in a mad max scenario - probably better to have guns, gold, food

he also made the statement that Bitcoin is the most reliable financial instrument for gaining value

NVDA

Posted by matt on 13th of Mar 2025 at 03:59 pm

NVDA - Chart Link has held up relatively well after finding support in that demand zone 3 days ago

yeah I've never had good luck holding pm mining stocks into earnings

was  also resistance right on that 5 min chart I had posted, that horizontal level has been important resistance and support on the cash

Update: SPX 5 min

SPX 5 min

Posted by matt on 13th of Mar 2025 at 03:02 pm

$SPX - Chart Link intra day symmetry break on that move, now higher low hopefully

I feel the market needs to put in the low today because we know that Friday's are not 'bottom days'

good question, I would assume for the calendar day so after hrs

mastermind - I know you went though some tough times, but you've been a champ about it and openly discussing it, many would not.

it's not fun man, but we all go through it. I know Steve and I certainly have had to learn the hard education in the past. Honestly with trading, it's almost a right of passage, you have to get your ass kicked and sometimes a few times before you finally start changing up how you do things.  

that's why brand new traders - the worst that can happen is they do very well right from the beginning and build their account way up - they are then vulnerable to losing most of it because they never went through the hard lessons, and now when they do it will be on a large account - better to have gone through it early on when their account was small when they first started

for me one thing I had to do was cut down the amount of positions I was doing: I'd build positions and eventually have 30 and 40 stocks I'm trying to manage. That's just asking for trouble and when the markets start to really move against you, you can't manage it. That said, I'm referring to manual trading - I have systems automated on probably 30 instruments in Tradestation but they are automated so I don't have to go in there and manage - and a system is running them so they already have the discipline and stops, so it's fine if they are automated.

The other thing is to place more money into trades and patterns that are exceptional, that you have high confidence in.  So if you are placing 10K into standard patterns and trades, but you happen to see a textbook perfect ideal pattern (coil, flag etc) that looks like supermodel or so good that you would include it in a book  on technical analysis - go heavier into that trade. 

yep and volatility tends top out first

SPX 5 min

Posted by matt on 13th of Mar 2025 at 02:19 pm

$SPX - Chart Link 5 min, lines represent intra day symmetry

Steve and his wife go

Short COST Updated View

Posted by matt on 13th of Mar 2025 at 12:05 pm

Steve and his wife go to Costco all the time, time to do some shopping

SPX Quarterly 5 EMA

Posted by matt on 13th of Mar 2025 at 12:01 pm

$SPX - Chart Link- the 5 quarter EMA is 5470, 9 EMA is below 5200 - over time that would be just a standard mean reversion retracement 

WMT follow up

Posted by matt on 13th of Mar 2025 at 12:00 pm

WMT - Chart Link- nice, come on 200 MA

WMT - Chart Link- at 38% Fib retracement from that major low  in 2023, however 200 day is just a stone throw away

Silver BOOM

Posted by matt on 13th of Mar 2025 at 11:55 am

SLV - Chart Link has been nicely coiled, was only matter of time

Update: Mining Stocks

Mining Stocks

Posted by matt on 13th of Mar 2025 at 11:54 am

GDX - Chart Link- very nice on these - long ideas from last night

GDXJ - Chart Link-

BTG - Chart Link-

SIL - Chart Link-

VIX isn't responding much to this move

Posted by matt on 13th of Mar 2025 at 11:54 am

$VIX - Chart Link- it's up but only slightly, not really responding that strongly to the SPX being down 60

Update: SPX 60 min

SPX 60 min

Posted by matt on 13th of Mar 2025 at 11:50 am

$SPX - Chart Link- this possibility I discussed last night and early this morning playing out for now - there is now MACD divergence. Doesn't mean this can't be blown away with a hard flush down, but at least the potential is there

Option I discussed last night

Posted by matt on 13th of Mar 2025 at 09:51 am

$SPX - Chart Link- this is one option I discussed last night if price doesn't follow through and instead goes on to sell off to a slight new low, the key word is slight new low not a blow out

A slight new low would result in MACD divergence, that could set up a much better initial trade low

again it's just one option

US Dollar, Bonds

Posted by matt on 13th of Mar 2025 at 09:46 am

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