follow through on gold stocks

Posted by matt on 17th of Sep 2019 at 10:27 am

Last night I said the p.m. stocks looked like they should follow through, so far that's the case

GDX - Chart Link - 60 min GDX, broke out of the channel, remember it had a nice MACD divergence

GDX - Chart Link - same for the 120 min

AEM - Chart Link - here's some of the individual's I discussed on the weekend and last night

PAAS - Chart Link

SAND - Chart Link 

HMY - Chart Link - was lower risk off the 50 MA and that doji

The RUT is the weakest this morning

Posted by matt on 17th of Sep 2019 at 09:36 am

$SPX - Chart Link - been the strongest lately

what's nice is on the

Monday's Newsletter

Posted by matt on 16th of Sep 2019 at 09:17 pm

what's nice is on the 120 min SPX the fast response BPT MA Deluxe is back red, so if it can turn green again we will get a new higher low stop

Monday's Newsletter

Posted by matt on 16th of Sep 2019 at 09:11 pm

ES 60 min

Posted by matt on 16th of Sep 2019 at 08:28 pm

Has a MA ribbon pinch here in bearish config. If one was short here your stop would go at 3007 the last high

AMPY follow up

Posted by matt on 16th of Sep 2019 at 12:04 pm

AMPY - Chart Link - basing idea from last Monday, up nicely today. The ones off the bottom were lower risk

ECA follow up

Posted by matt on 16th of Sep 2019 at 12:03 pm

ECA - Chart Link - obvious follow on this long idea from early last week with what's going on in the oil market

nice spot morton on that MA ribbon!

5 min SPX/ES

Posted by matt on 16th of Sep 2019 at 11:38 am

intra day price simply bouncing from cycle supports to cycle resistance

Weekend Newsletter

Posted by matt on 15th of Sep 2019 at 05:42 pm

Also would be better for the precious metals market to see the commercial net short come down lower and the large speculators  position. While it has dipped some now it's still very elevated

remember the gold stuff could still put in a lower high i.e. wave B then another consolidation wave C.  Short term gold, GDX, etc had a small abc down and 60 min MACD divergence so were all set to bounce anyway. However is that an abc down of A? 

again all the pm stuff was technically set to bounce, just not sure it's ready to roar straight to new highs, but I am looking for an up move regardless had the Saudi news came out or not.

however for 'gold bugs' who may have sold out of all or most of their positions near the divergent highs, this could be an area to start scaling back in some i.e. 1/3 etc.  You don't have to try to pick the exact bottom. again depends on your style

This will likely impact the

Posted by matt on 14th of Sep 2019 at 01:53 pm

This will likely impact the markets early this week, obviously the energy and oil market

Saudi Arabia Shuts Down About Half Its Oil Output After Drone Strikes

this is the largest oil refinery in the world so it's a big deal.  On the flip side gold and bonds have sold off hard this last week and were technically due for  a bounce, so here's your news catalyst 

FSM comments

Posted by matt on 13th of Sep 2019 at 01:47 pm

FSM - Chart Link - I have to review all the precious metal stocks now that we've had a nice correction, anyway here's FSM, could have had an abc pullback on the daily, back to the 200 MA now

FSM - Chart Link - 6 min has a wedge with positive divergence

BPGDM finally moved lower yesterday

Posted by matt on 13th of Sep 2019 at 09:45 am

$BPGDM - Chart Link - noticed that BPGDM finally pulled back below the 8 MA from 87.5% to 83.3% yesterday. Remember the BPGDM only moves when component stocks change on point and figure charts.  

otherwise short term GDX had some positive divergence via a 60 min chart so bouncing some this morning 

Nice man!

also I have a scan that tends to find the 1st pinches, I just don't run it enough as I should

remember as I've said guys,

SPY system trade

Posted by matt on 12th of Sep 2019 at 05:07 pm

remember as I've said guys, I'm an option novice, I'm no expert in options like Steve. I figure as long as the overall SPY system trades is good, the option trade will work out in most cases. I'm sure there are many better methods, strike prices, and trades that get held for a while I've been told that the options should be sold out of and new strikes bought several times in order to optimize profits and degradation. 

What I give is just a guide, you guys should be picking what you think is right if you have better strategy, and feel free to share as well

the delta on my side

SPY system trade

Posted by matt on 12th of Sep 2019 at 05:00 pm

the delta on my side shows 77.5, also it's for Nov 15th. 

for breakout trades I tend to go lower delta because bad trades will get stopped out vs holding, so I don't go with 90 delta. Also breakout trades should really only have 1 entry anyway, I do allow it a 2nd entry but that's all.  Also my general model suggests that I do an even lower delta like 70 but I went higher because I felt like it basically

true, but again you could

SPY system trade

Posted by matt on 12th of Sep 2019 at 04:27 pm

true, but again you could easily make a case not to do any trade that occurs and why the trade is too risky etc, I know because I've done it many times in the past not taking trades and missing many in a row because I was worried vs just following the system trade

anyway so further info: the average hold time for the trade is 23 days, that's just an average of course

since the market is quite

SPY system trade

Posted by matt on 12th of Sep 2019 at 04:25 pm

since the market is quite overbought in the short term I did some quick backtests using an RSI filter on that breakout trade.

The first image shows the default trade setting: no trades when an RSI 2 is > 99%.
The 2nd image shows the filter adjusted to no trades when an RSI 3 is > 95%

As you can see from the statistics, the default trade has good stats at 90.2% winning trades and a PF of 19.4, however has a higher max draw down of about 4.2%.

The statistics using more stringent 3 RSI has a lower profit of 69.8K vs 72K, however 10 less trades of 72 vs 82 and higher winning % of 93% vs 92.2%,  but a Much lower draw down of -2.7% vs $4.2%. This version did NOT trigger. 

Both versions actually went long, therefore I'll be switching over to this new version as the stats are quite a bit better. 

anyway just sharing for further information,


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