$SPX:XLP - Chart Link The weakness of the
SPX/XLP ratio gave an early warning for a selloff for the SPX as it
was melting down hard when the SPX was still near its highs
as far as the market, this move down is either a wave 2 under
the 'bulls' scenario, and wave 2's are generally very deep. Or this
is a more bearish wave 3 down and will test or make new lows like
it did last fall following the early Sept lower high bounce
That's not a Steve thing - Friday's are well known not to be
good bottoming days.
and as far as recession, I'm the one who's been pounding the
table with that Yield Curve of mine - while pundits on CNBC have
talked soft landing for the last year and continue to call it.
Yield Curve was inverted the longest in history
the Stockcharts vs hasn't updated yet and I will post later
after it updates, but the yield curve is now nicely above the 1.0
ratio
mean reversion does not use stops on the initial buy ins, they
tend to stop out of bad trades after a bounce vs on a hard stop - I
tested all those systems everywhere from Sunday and it was alway
better to stop out on a bounce vs at the lows - you always got out
better on a bounce
stops can come in after some time - after a mean reversion
bounce and if the systems hold, they will set a stop, or the
breakout uses a stop
but no stops on these trades right now, they are mean
reversion
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SPX/XLP ratio
Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2024 at 07:42 pm
$SPX:XLP - Chart Link The weakness of the SPX/XLP ratio gave an early warning for a selloff for the SPX as it was melting down hard when the SPX was still near its highs
Bitcoin, Ethereum melting down
Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2024 at 07:38 pm
$BTCUSD - Chart Link- both had ABC pullbacks on their last bounce, which was reflexive, not impulsive.
$ETHUSD - Chart Link- Ethereum was weaker even more obvious as that abc ran right into that resistance then got smacked down hard
Crude Oil
Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2024 at 07:36 pm
$WTIC - Chart Link-
$WTIC - Chart Link-
August's Monthly Hanging Man Doji's playing out
Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2024 at 07:35 pm
$INDU - Chart Link
NVAADV / NYTOT
Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2024 at 07:24 pm
$NYA - Chart Link that divergence at the high with respect to the NYA played out
NYMO, NAMO all closed below their BB's
Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2024 at 07:23 pm
$SPX - Chart Link
VVIX / VIX ratio outside lower BB's
Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2024 at 07:22 pm
$VIX - Chart Link closed below its lower BB's -as you can see when this ratio closed outside its Bollinger Bands, tend to occur near price inflections
VIX closed slightly outside its BB's
Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2024 at 07:20 pm
$VIX - Chart Link-
SPX, QQQ weekly
Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2024 at 07:18 pm
$SPX - Chart Link-
QQQ - Chart Link-
SMH, XHB lost 200 day MA
Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2024 at 07:18 pm
SMH - Chart Link-
XLK - Chart Link-
DBC weekly
Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2024 at 07:07 pm
DBC - Chart Link-
Yield Curve 1.02
Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2024 at 06:59 pm
$UST10Y:$UST2Y - Chart Link-
yep ES futures down about
Market still dropping. Looks like it's going to get 5387 ...
Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2024 at 04:37 pm
yep ES futures down about 15 points from the SPX cash close
as far as the market,
There will be a follow through on Monday as many ...
Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2024 at 04:36 pm
as far as the market, this move down is either a wave 2 under the 'bulls' scenario, and wave 2's are generally very deep. Or this is a more bearish wave 3 down and will test or make new lows like it did last fall following the early Sept lower high bounce
That's not a Steve thing
There will be a follow through on Monday as many ...
Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2024 at 04:34 pm
That's not a Steve thing - Friday's are well known not to be good bottoming days.
and as far as recession, I'm the one who's been pounding the table with that Yield Curve of mine - while pundits on CNBC have talked soft landing for the last year and continue to call it. Yield Curve was inverted the longest in history
the Stockcharts vs hasn't updated yet and I will post later after it updates, but the yield curve is now nicely above the 1.0 ratio
SPXU 60 min
Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2024 at 04:02 pm
SPXU - Chart Link- still sort of has a flag look, no MACD divergence, I wonder if this pops to fill that next gap next week?
yeah using Sept for now. Sept
Matt, for the ES system you are still using the ...
Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2024 at 04:01 pm
yeah using Sept for now.
Sept 281K contracts traded today. Dec 20,600 contracts traded today
you can either buy the Sept then switch them out later if these do not close out first, or pick the Dec
mean reversion does not use
SPY and ES mean reversion systems trades
Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2024 at 03:09 pm
mean reversion does not use stops on the initial buy ins, they tend to stop out of bad trades after a bounce vs on a hard stop - I tested all those systems everywhere from Sunday and it was alway better to stop out on a bounce vs at the lows - you always got out better on a bounce
stops can come in after some time - after a mean reversion bounce and if the systems hold, they will set a stop, or the breakout uses a stop
but no stops on these trades right now, they are mean reversion
Yield Curve up, ratio is 0.04 now
Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2024 at 01:38 pm
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/10Y2YS
the yield curve ratio was 1.0 on Wednesday and 0.99 yesterday, so a big jump today
SPX 5min
Posted by matt on 6th of Sep 2024 at 01:35 pm
$SPX - Chart Link- we had some nice MACD divergence there mid day before that bounce from the wedge.
now we'll see what happens in the afternoon - higher low or dump - onus is on the bulls because Friday's tend not to be good for bottoms