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BPSPX follow up

Posted by matt on 24th of Mar 2020 at 05:09 pm

$BPSPX - Chart Link that played out well, last night I said you had the big trend short trade, and the two whipsaw buy and sell signals and the next one would be decent, that triggered basically on the open so that played. Nice that it updates intra day vs after the close

You can see the times in the past when you had a trend move then two back to backwhipsaws - highlighted those in yellow. 

so whenever I get two whips in a row, then I knew to take the next one

9 EMA on daily is first target

Posted by matt on 24th of Mar 2020 at 03:55 pm

$SPX - Chart Link - currently intra day charts are not working on Stockchats.com for me

Update: Index charts comments

Index charts comments

Posted by matt on 24th of Mar 2020 at 02:38 pm

$SPX - Chart Link - showing this just in case, this is a little b bounce, then c down to form higher low and stay above the wedge then rally - see dotted lines

$SPX - Chart Link - 30 min view

again the key is staying above wedge trendline

guys there were two QQQ

Index charts comments

Posted by matt on 24th of Mar 2020 at 01:58 pm

guys there were two QQQ charts I had to add the first 60 min so you might need to refresh to see that image. Otherwise you have the live URL's

Index charts comments

Posted by matt on 24th of Mar 2020 at 01:55 pm

$SPX - Chart Link- 60 min 245 points off the lows

QQQ - Chart Link- the QQQ's paused right at the downtrend line exactly did not break symmetry

$SPX - Chart Link- 60 min had a perfect hourly doji

$SPX - Chart Link- the 30 min the 'hope' for the bulls is if we pullback more more intra day to 'hold' the broken wedge trendline form a higher low then bounce off. 

$SPX - Chart Link - yes3rdmilcharts

Posted by matt on 24th of Mar 2020 at 01:50 pm

$SPX - Chart Link - yes3rdmilcharts - had a perfect doji on the 60 min that triggered 

Update: Update: SPX 5 min

SPX 5 min

Posted by matt on 24th of Mar 2020 at 01:44 pm

and the QQQ reversed right

ES Resistance 2430

Posted by matt on 24th of Mar 2020 at 01:09 pm

and the QQQ reversed right at my downtrend channel line

again we'll see what happens here last 1/2 of day now, I think that's important

Update: SPX 5 min

SPX 5 min

Posted by matt on 24th of Mar 2020 at 01:01 pm

$SPX - Chart Link - note on the 5 min SPX we are pulling back in that mid day time frame I suggested. My only concern is the MACD divergence, typically on trend days don't get that divergence until the second push to a new high in the afternoon. 

anyway watch the 50 SMA price normally retraces to retest that, also MACD tends to recycle back to zero which it is trying to do.

you obviously want to see 60 Stochastic remain above 80% or close to it. 

currently fast Stochastic 10 length is recycling, not yet oversold

Update: VIX comments

VIX comments

Posted by matt on 24th of Mar 2020 at 12:57 pm

Long VIX 60 min candle - Chart Link - bounced off that 200 MA

Update: DNI and HNI

DNI and HNI

Posted by matt on 24th of Mar 2020 at 12:55 pm

DIN - Chart Link nice move on DIN

Update: QQQ 120 min note symmetry

QQQ 120 min note symmetry

Posted by matt on 24th of Mar 2020 at 12:49 pm

QQQ - Chart Link - updated view

QQQ 120 min note symmetry

Posted by matt on 24th of Mar 2020 at 12:15 pm

QQQ - Chart Link - this is also important chart to clear, so far in that channel nearing resistances with a 17 point bounce off the lows

also remember the rules on the chart, been there for years

For a VIX confirmed signal you need 3 things:

1. A close outside of the 2.0 Bollinger Band.

2. A close back within the 2.0 Bollinger Band. This creates the signal.

3.  A higher close (sell) or a lower close (buy) than the close of the day back inside the Bollinger Band. This serves to confirm the signal. 





thx great chart I'm monitoring

Caution here longs! 

Posted by matt on 24th of Mar 2020 at 12:00 pm

thx great chart I'm monitoring that too

?? first off I didn't see the post so apologize.  Secondly that is not really a system, it's more of a guide.  Now most of the time when the VIX is behaving normally closes back inside the VIX work pretty well.  One of you guys should take the VIX and SPX chart and try to do some history back 15 years and compile the data in a spreadsheet and share. I think it tried doing that once but been a long time and I don't know where that it is.  Anyway in the times when the VIX moves VERY strongly up you will tend to get multiple bad signals where it closes back inside, then outside, then back inside and outside

see this quick chart - again under most VIX conditions that works well however on very sharp corrections when the VIX spikes way up you get many multiple whipsaw signals where you buy on the up day which causes the VIX to go back inside the bands and that's the one day bounce and crap.

now I think the VIX moving down like it has the last few days is far more interesting and yesterday probably good for a buy, but that wasn't one day inside the bands. 

Also note the VIX became uncorrelated to the SPX on that indicator below SPX

so normal times that one day close backinside is normally a good signal, sometimes it's good for 1 day, sometimes it's a major low or high. But when you get moves where the VIX spikes way up over 30 and 40 I think you can't simply use the 1 day close back inside the VIX as you can get multiple before it's correct. Switch to other charts for triggers

here's the education page on

SPX 5 min

Posted by matt on 24th of Mar 2020 at 11:46 am

SPX 5 min

Posted by matt on 24th of Mar 2020 at 11:44 am

$SPX - Chart Link - so far trend day, I tend to buy the gaps and add on small pullbacks - if it continues to be a trend day again they all work the same - refer to past examples, they typically run until about 12 - 1, then have an hr or so of consolidation, then try to push again in afternoon for another high, sometimes closing near the highs or pulling back the last hr.  The mid day hr long consolidation generally allows price to recycle back to the 50 SMA on the 5 min.  60 Stochastic needs to stay above 80%

listen man trading is tough,

JETS ETF follow up target hit

Posted by matt on 24th of Mar 2020 at 11:19 am

listen man trading is tough, and very very emotional especially in this environment, trust me I've made every mistake in the book, we all have. 

I posted those examples not to bug you, it's more for others and all of us really. That specific type of reversion to mean trades MUST be traded very methodically for it to work in the long run, that meas a well defined doji on the daily, and 60 min MACD divergence, if you don't have the 60 min MACD divergence you ignore. Trigger on the daily is 1 penny above the doji high, stop is 1 penny below the doji low, which you have to adhere to. I take 50% off at the 5 EMA then more off at the 9 EMA.  If I'm stopped out I will do the setup again even on the same stock if the setup appears again.  The rules on these type of trades have to be followed to a tee since they are not typically big running trades, mostly bounce back to the 9 EMA's.  Most will work out but you will the occasional stop out or two but if the rules are followed to a tee the stats will work out in the long run

I thought I had a webpage on these, I have one on ES futures though, basically the same thing really, don't bother focusing on the MACD BB indicator, can't use that on STockcharts

https://breakpointtrades.com/education/legacy/?nl_id=3285

SPX 30 min and other comments

Posted by matt on 24th of Mar 2020 at 11:12 am

$SPX - Chart Link- we have a poke out of the wedge - however need to see it not fall back into the wedge, and on a pullback at least try to hold that broken downtrend line

would be far more ideal if we had a Trend day gap and go, this could still happen but SPX needs to get going here again soon on a 5 min chart to make that happen

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