SPY and MES mean reversion systems final update

Posted by matt on 13th of Jun 2026 at 05:33 pm

as requested I updated the current open MES futures Trend/Pullback prices to the September contract MESU26.  Again, as I stated last week, while prices are quite a bit different from the MESM26 contract, the point difference between entry and exit is almost the same as the June contract, just a few points difference/basically the same.  This system remains open.

For the SPY mean reversion systems the QE BTS system will exit on Monday morning

BPTRX was the star amount the SPCX holding stocks

Posted by matt on 13th of Jun 2026 at 05:23 pm

BPTRX weekly SpaceX - Baron Partners - Chart Linkwhile most of the stocks that hold SpaceX shares got clobbered on Friday, the fund BPTRX (which 30% of its holdings are SPCX) had a great and was up 5.5% on Friday

SCHD Schwab US Dividend ETF

Posted by matt on 13th of Jun 2026 at 05:20 pm

SCHD - Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF - Chart LinkI potted this per a request by one of you, decent looking chart. 

By the way, ex dividend is June 29th

also the vertical lines shows the last two dividends, as you can see price stayed stable after those dividends, didn't pullback like it can on other stocks after their dividend

Also looking at that volume

SpaceX plays

Posted by shellson2 on 13th of Jun 2026 at 03:01 pm

Also looking at that volume bar yesterday--being long,  perhaps a wash-out?  

SOXL update I cleaned up the

Posted by johnny2012 on 13th of Jun 2026 at 09:50 am

SOXL update

I cleaned up the diamond pattern based on the hourly with stock charts. Much more symmetrical this way and has some good trend lines. Hopefully Matt can take a look and we can get his thoughts.

 If we measure from top to bottom of diamond, its 74 points. With this chart the breakout was at 205. So 205+74= 279 target. I still have my second target of 244(small bull flag within the pattern) after 235(fib) was hit and then 257 as a fib. Since this is pretty much a confirmed diamond pattern and signals a reversal in trend, this is really leaning to new highs. If it hits 279 we might as well make new highs for just a few points more. Hope this is more helpful and explains how I came up with the targets. Could also end the B wave early next week and then we drop and just adjust to that. Anything goes, I'm just throwing my .02 cents in and what I see. Hope everyone has a great weekend!

SMH Manufacturers strength

Posted by rbreese on 13th of Jun 2026 at 09:46 am

Only LRCX AMAT  KLAC  INTC  doing well. What is NVDA AVGO MRVL  telling us? Looking for thoughts?

Agree with analysis. The company

SpaceX plays

Posted by shellson2 on 12th of Jun 2026 at 10:23 pm

Agree with analysis. The company today on paper just  made 44 billion (holds262 million shares). Their market cap is 33 billion

Bigger question is.. yea ok, now what?

Good wknd ya’ll

most people here don't have 'VIX' as the middle name, most are sophisticated here not like the general public. They are not gonna be just perma bulls buying for YOLO with no exit plan - the subscribers here are not the clueless 'general public' like you sort of suggest

also maybe 5% of the website posts here, vast majority do not, there's also a lot of professionals here who are not allowed to post from legal perspective but some might be here reading. 

I am a paid consultant to the largest RIA in the US  who manages 150Billing and is has been the top RIA for years, he never comes here. I consult with him week and text him  ideas and observations. 

post ideas and analysis when you see something useful.  We're all here to share and learn - and of course stay away from hard line politics 

FRMI starting to move

Posted by matt on 12th of Jun 2026 at 04:18 pm

Straight up conflict / challenge language. Perma bulls don't realize how aggressive  and defensive they are because they are usually in the majority.

**I know I've been censored by the powers that be and no one will see this post...like 1984 around here.  But it's fun talking to myself sometimes   

SPY/MES Mean Reversion Systems final trades

Posted by matt on 12th of Jun 2026 at 04:12 pm

First off SPY mean reversion systems

- SPY QE MOM closed out (top middle chart)
- SPY Trend/Pullback closed out (upper right chart)
- SPY QE BTS exit, but this exits on Monday morning NOT today  (bottom right)

MES Systems

- Trend/Pullback did not exit, missed by a hair (bottom middle)

attached is the SPY mean reversion systems trade list.  I did not add MES futures because that system is still open

Agreeing with you elementsix, however

SpaceX plays

Posted by rmoore100 on 12th of Jun 2026 at 04:08 pm

Agreeing with you elementsix, however those proxy companies I would assume, now have a substantial SPCX holding, which if SPCX were to continue up, would prove to increase the proxies' value.   Granted the opposite could hold true as well.  I believe STCGF also has pre-IPO shares of Open AI.


On mean reversion we may not get the exit on the MES Trend/Pullback. 

ha yeah if you grew

Mean Reversion systems update

Posted by matt on 12th of Jun 2026 at 03:57 pm

ha yeah if you grew up in the 80's you should recall those 7Up commercials very well

Ha! I love the Uncola

Mean Reversion systems update

Posted by timebandit on 12th of Jun 2026 at 03:56 pm

Ha! I love the Uncola Nut guy

I actually cannot use the Sept contract on the Tradestation system charts until rollover, there's not enough data, I'm using the continuous contract price @MES, which while prices might be different to the Sept contract they are basically the same as the June contract, the difference point gains between entry and exit are the same. For the Sept contact entries prices and exits are quite different but you have roughly the same net point gain

for example:  basically six one half dozen the other, it really should have no effect on profits - folks made the same amount of points/money for continues vs June contract, and within 5 points on Sept contact

- MES continues: 2nd entry 7276, current price 7426  (150 points gained)
- MESM26:  2nd entry 7276 current price 7426  (150 points gained)
- MESU26:  2nd entry 7335.5, current price 7490   (155 point gains)

the attached image shows the Sept contract on the system - until the official rollover there's not enough history to even plot

New highs for small and

Posted by mastermind on 12th of Jun 2026 at 03:18 pm

New highs for small and mid caps. That's for those that still claim the bull market is all about big tech AI stocks. 

XLF Sector

Posted by cart3375 on 12th of Jun 2026 at 02:57 pm

Not a bad looking chart. Bet it pulls back some next week. 

Matt, I see you are using the September contract, but you still applied the June price!  The entry price for the   Trend/Pullback mean reversion for the 2nd entry, for example, would have been 7337 for the MESU  contract, not 7276 as reported. That was the June contract (MESM), not September (MESU)

Like I said, it's possible, it's also possible with HYG and IWM strength that lows are in and pullbacks will form higher lows. It's Friday so I'm not going to guess right now.

But like I said last night, in trading it doesn't matter which scenario it is you can still make money because both counts aligned for the same bounce move to the 61.8% Fib.  Now it's not as easy, but the easy long was going long after the 5 waves down on Tuesday or buying the deep retracement on Wed

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