Title: Top Down Approach Discussion and how to View BPT - Click on Title

Thanks, Matt -- appreciate it.

Posted by mstaples37 on 25th of Oct 2021 at 05:05 pm

Thanks, Matt -- appreciate it.  Looking forward to seeing those things you've been working on!

Steve,  how does one access

Posted by bharvey96 on 30th of Sep 2020 at 01:35 pm

Steve,  how does one access the "Ciovacco Historical Perspective Charts?"  I would imagine you need to be a client?

He puts out a weekly

Posted by steve on 30th of Sep 2020 at 01:41 pm

He puts out a weekly video via Twitter on Friday Night

Hi Matt/steve, is today highly

Posted by kevindeng0727 on 16th of Jun 2020 at 09:18 am

Hi Matt/steve, is today highly likely to be a trend day?

Video on the SPY Reversion to mean systems

Posted by matt on 23rd of Jan 2022 at 01:19 pm

As you know the SPY systems currently have a long trade open, given the backdrop of the market I decided to make a video discussing the systems

CLICK HERE  to watch the video - please watch in the highest resolution you can so that it's not fuzzy

Excellent synopsis on the SPY

Posted by steve on 23rd of Jan 2022 at 03:37 pm

Excellent synopsis on the SPY system Matt - guys make sure you watch this video which addresses what the systems are designed for trading.  Matt puts in a ton of work and it's really nice that he takes time to put such a video together.  

If that's not enough, you

SPX 30 min

Posted by steve on 25th of Jan 2022 at 09:01 am

If that's not enough, you also have the Russia/Ukraine situation in the backdrop

Make no mistake, the key driver of the market of late is the FED having moved to fight inflation into a SLOWING ECONOMY

Trader Comments 

In the same way that some older investors struggled with the notion of a “fiscal put” in March 2020, they’re struggling with the fact that we’re still going to get rate hikes even with stocks being down. Gotta be careful with the pre-2020 markets/Fed playbook now.

Just trade what's in front

SPX 30 min

Posted by steve on 25th of Jan 2022 at 08:56 am

Just trade what's in front of you - mapping this is extremely subjective.  Many should simply curtail or refrain from trading without a clear cut low risk setup

ES Globex Range 4319-4406.75 Yesterday was

Posted by steve on 25th of Jan 2022 at 08:54 am

ES Globex Range 4319-4406.75

Yesterday was one of only 3 times (others in 2008) that SPX/ES recovered from such a deep percentage loss.   They were bear market rallies 

Support 4320-30 then 4280 (if this fails retest of lows likely)

Continued bounce upside targets 4430 4460 

Steve mentioned a 200 point

SPX 30 min

Posted by retirefire on 25th of Jan 2022 at 08:47 am

Steve mentioned a 200 point move Possibility for a wave 4 up. Yesterday's move was 190 off the low. I know we follow price but is this cautionary as a new low ... or just too much conjecture?

You know the market mood

Posted by steve on 25th of Jan 2022 at 08:29 am

You know the market mood has turned when people are being nice about Warren Buffett again

Market options

Posted by matt on 25th of Jan 2022 at 08:26 am

this is one of the scenarios I discussed last night because of that huge tail wick, I was more expecting a large move either inside that candle range, or even under cut it some. 

Correlation between BTC and SPX - Jim Bianco Comments

Posted by steve on 25th of Jan 2022 at 08:18 am

The correlation between BTC and SPX is now a record, both in time positive and highest positive ever. This will not always be the case, but it is now.  So, the crypto bottom is also the stock bottom and visa-versa.

I posted the divergent low and reversal yesterday in BTC - first to reverse.  Very fluid and subject to change

Institutional adoption means crypto is view as the farthest point on the risk curve, a highly leverage stock position. So, they trade that way.

Real Wages - Jim Bianco Comments

Posted by steve on 25th of Jan 2022 at 08:15 am

This might be the most important inflation chart right now. 40% of the public has less than $1,000 of savings and rents.  They did not have home prices and/or stocks to "bail them out" from higher prices. Their position worsened in December (bottom panel).

Sydney…it is because the later entries, the lower Delta trades, will have a higher gamma. The option's gamma is the measure  of the option’s rate of change of the Delta. 

Hey Matt, thank you for

Posted by sydney on 25th of Jan 2022 at 05:55 am

Hey Matt, thank you for your video on your spy system, it is amazing!!! You have put in a lot of effort in analysing, scripting and testing. From a system point of view you are the first that have this kind of perfection. I also follow another trader who has a system, almost to perfection as well, but it is not automated, though he has the ability to do so, but I think he does not want to lose his skills once he automates his system. I have also seen a few other good systems over the years and yours is excellent with statistics. I may try to trade a larger position.

One thing I am confused is this

" For first entry trades I target a delta of 0.6, for 2nd entries I target a delta of 0.5, and for rare 3rd entries I target an even lower delta below 0.5. The thought process there is that 2nd and 3rd entry options have a higher probability and thus I I can buy options with lower delta to give more leverage."

If the 2nd and 3rd entry options have a higher probability (because spy is stretched), why not use 0.7 or even higher delta instead of lower 0.5 delta? Higher delta gives you more leverage. I do follow John Carter who likes 0.7 delta for higher leverage.

ES came down to test

Posted by steve on 25th of Jan 2022 at 05:22 am

ES came down to test 4330 and thus far is bouncing...back to bed

Large ranges lately 

Monday's Newsletter

Posted by matt on 24th of Jan 2022 at 09:58 pm

Rareto….The reason was we met

QQQ daily

Posted by chartboy on 24th of Jan 2022 at 09:23 pm

Rareto….The reason was we met the downside target on the SPX, which was the weekly propulsion down target. It was 420. Today’s low was 420.

That has been a worst case support level for this move I have seen being discussed for weeks with Funds controlling many billions. The fact that today was a perfected daily -9 on btc also helped. Additionally, the mid-day (around 1pm) TDST buy signal in BTC was the spark that set the flame. 

These types of moves to and from propulsion levels are a daily occurrence in the crypto markets, which is one of the reasons the crypto markets are so profitable for advanced traders. Literally almost everyday there are large cap cryptos moving much more than the spx/qqqs did today and the direct correlation to technical indicators, especially Demark Sequential and Propulsion, are even better than in equities, because the percent of directional volume by quant programs is so much higher in crypto. 

Futures are strongly down ,so far!!

a couple setups

Posted by matt on 24th of Jan 2022 at 08:28 pm

CONN - Chart Link- CONN looks amazing

TCDA - Chart Link-

I was trying to find

QQQ daily

Posted by rareto25 on 24th of Jan 2022 at 08:01 pm

I was trying to find a similar support and reasoning for SPX to rally apart from being oversold. WE broke through most of the support lines.

That's really interesting

QQQ daily

Posted by timebandit on 24th of Jan 2022 at 08:00 pm

That's really interesting

Sold shorts after the open,

Posted by timebandit on 24th of Jan 2022 at 07:59 pm

Sold shorts after the open, early but profitable, Bought some GDX. Also took a shot at AUY and EWZ. May regret it. Am looking to reshort, but who knows?

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