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Once again, the above video link provides an overview
referencing current stock market conditions relative to similar
past readings. This would be most relevant for position
investors (such as retirement accounts) to monitor on a weekly
This is NOT a
forecast just data points at this time. Continue to keep an
open mind and respect the message of the market.
Markets are fluid and subject to change as we all know - key is
to establish a methodology that fits with your beliefs. You
can also incorporate a hybrid approach with your portfolio by
position investing certain funds for longer term (accepting
volatility until EVIDENCE changes) and dedicating other funds to
short term trading. Those are decisions for each individual.
If you have yet to formalize an investing/trading approach
please take some time to formalize a template - you can always
adjust but it's best to have something in place. From there,
you should formulate a PLAN that entails your objectives.
Once a plan is in place, then you can refine down to which
specific securities you want to invest and/or trade. This is
a TOP DOWN approach that should be enacted PRIOR to looking for
trades. Just like a Football team(or any sports team) - the
General manager has a vision/approach on how he/she wants to build
a team. Then he/she hires a coach to devise a scheme around those
players to maximize their talents. Next, the coach puts
into place a weekly game plan (making necessary adjustments) before
finally selecting specific plays.
How does BPT come into this picture? Think of BPT like a
consultant/assistant coach who helps to make your job easier
along the way. We provide daily analysis of several markets
which helps to provide some guidance as to how we see things.
We also spend a considerable amount of time providing tips
and educational examples to help execute you plan. Think of
the DVT approach for swing trades and the nightly discussion of
charts involving patterns and candlesticks, etc. We
also scan for and offer trade suggestions (ideas) that we believe
are valid setups and we take time to review the triggered setups in
the following days. Partake in only the ideas that fit into
your plan and simply ignore ones that don't. Finally, we
spend time posting relevant comments and numerous charts every day
in the trading community relating to what transpiring during that
trading session and updating trade ideas.
Thanks, Matt -- appreciate it. Looking forward to seeing
those things you've been working on!
Steve, how does one access the "Ciovacco Historical
Perspective Charts?" I would imagine you need to be a
He puts out a weekly video via Twitter on Friday Night
Hi Matt/steve, is today highly likely to be a trend day?
As you know the SPY systems
currently have a long trade open, given the backdrop of the market
I decided to make a video discussing the systems
to watch the video - please watch in the highest resolution you
can so that it's not fuzzy
Excellent synopsis on the SPY system Matt - guys make sure you
watch this video which addresses what the systems are designed for
trading. Matt puts in a ton of work and it's really nice that
he takes time to put such a video together.
If that's not enough, you also have the Russia/Ukraine situation
in the backdrop
Make no mistake, the key driver of the market of late is the FED
having moved to fight inflation into a SLOWING ECONOMY
In the same way that some older investors struggled with the
notion of a “fiscal put” in March 2020, they’re
struggling with the fact that we’re still going to get rate
hikes even with stocks being down. Gotta be careful with the
pre-2020 markets/Fed playbook now.
Just trade what's in front of you - mapping this is extremely
subjective. Many should simply curtail or refrain from
trading without a clear cut low risk setup
ES Globex Range 4319-4406.75
Yesterday was one of only 3 times (others in 2008) that SPX/ES
recovered from such a deep percentage loss. They were
bear market rallies
Support 4320-30 then 4280 (if this fails retest of lows
Continued bounce upside targets 4430 4460
Steve mentioned a 200 point move Possibility for a wave 4 up.
Yesterday's move was 190 off the low. I know we follow price but is
this cautionary as a new low ... or just too much conjecture?
You know the market mood has turned when people are being nice
about Warren Buffett again
this is one of the scenarios I discussed last night because of
that huge tail wick, I was more expecting a large move either
inside that candle range, or even under cut it some.
The correlation between BTC and SPX is now a record, both in
time positive and highest positive ever. This will not always be
the case, but it is now. So, the crypto bottom is also the
stock bottom and visa-versa.
I posted the divergent low and reversal yesterday in BTC - first
to reverse. Very fluid and subject to change
Institutional adoption means crypto is view as the farthest
point on the risk curve, a highly leverage stock position. So, they
trade that way.
This might be the most important inflation chart right now. 40%
of the public has less than $1,000 of savings and rents. They
did not have home prices and/or stocks to "bail them out" from
higher prices. Their position worsened in December (bottom
$BTCUSD - Chart Link
$ETHUSD - Chart Link
Sydney…it is because the later entries, the lower Delta
trades, will have a higher gamma. The option's gamma is the measure
of the option’s rate of change of the Delta.
Hey Matt, thank you for your video on your spy system, it is
amazing!!! You have put in a lot of effort in analysing, scripting
and testing. From a system point of view you are the first that
have this kind of perfection. I also follow another trader who has
a system, almost to perfection as well, but it is not automated,
though he has the ability to do so, but I think he does not want to
lose his skills once he automates his system. I have also seen a
few other good systems over the years and yours is excellent with
statistics. I may try to trade a larger position.
One thing I am confused is this
" For first entry trades I target a delta of 0.6, for 2nd
entries I target a delta of 0.5, and for rare 3rd entries I target
an even lower delta below 0.5. The thought process there is that
2nd and 3rd entry options have a higher probability and thus I I
can buy options with lower delta to give more leverage."
If the 2nd and 3rd entry options have a higher probability
(because spy is stretched), why not use 0.7 or even higher delta
instead of lower 0.5 delta? Higher delta gives you more leverage. I
do follow John Carter who likes 0.7 delta for higher leverage.
ES came down to test 4330 and thus far is bouncing...back to
Large ranges lately
Rareto….The reason was we met the downside target on the
SPX, which was the weekly propulsion down target. It was 420.
Today’s low was 420.
That has been a worst case support level for this move I have
seen being discussed for weeks with Funds controlling many
billions. The fact that today was a perfected daily -9 on btc also
helped. Additionally, the mid-day (around 1pm) TDST buy signal in
BTC was the spark that set the flame.
These types of moves to and from propulsion levels are a daily
occurrence in the crypto markets, which is one of the reasons the
crypto markets are so profitable for advanced traders. Literally
almost everyday there are large cap cryptos moving much more than
the spx/qqqs did today and the direct correlation to technical
indicators, especially Demark Sequential and Propulsion, are even
better than in equities, because the percent of directional volume
by quant programs is so much higher in crypto.
Futures are strongly down ,so far!!
CONN - Chart Link- CONN looks amazing
TCDA - Chart Link-
I was trying to find a similar support and reasoning for SPX to
rally apart from being oversold. WE broke through most of the
That's really interesting
Sold shorts after the open, early but profitable, Bought some
GDX. Also took a shot at AUY and EWZ. May regret it. Am looking to
reshort, but who knows?
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