Title: Top Down Approach Discussion and how to View BPT - Click on Title

Steve,  how does one access

Posted by bharvey96 on 30th of Sep 2020 at 01:35 pm

Steve,  how does one access the "Ciovacco Historical Perspective Charts?"  I would imagine you need to be a client?

He puts out a weekly

Posted by steve on 30th of Sep 2020 at 01:41 pm

He puts out a weekly video via Twitter on Friday Night

Hi Matt/steve, is today highly

Posted by kevindeng0727 on 16th of Jun 2020 at 09:18 am

Hi Matt/steve, is today highly likely to be a trend day?

SPY systems update

Posted by matt on 17th of Sep 2021 at 02:20 pm
Title: SPY systems update

SPY systems took a trade A

Posted by matt on 17th of Sep 2021 at 04:05 pm

SPY systems took a trade

A different SPY sub system, the QE LE took a 1st entry long: $10K SPY ETF, and 1 SPY Call option Nov 19th expiration with a strike price of 428

Thanks for posting Matt!

Posted by cozz101 on 17th of Sep 2021 at 04:08 pm

Thanks for posting Matt!

Thanks Matt! 

Posted by skitexas67 on 17th of Sep 2021 at 08:20 pm

Thanks Matt! 

After hours prices count?  (technically

Posted by jtsurfah on 17th of Sep 2021 at 04:04 pm

After hours prices count?  (technically not after hours for SPY until 15 minutes after the broad market closes)

prices confirm for the daily

Posted by matt on 17th of Sep 2021 at 04:07 pm

prices confirm for the daily candle in Tradestation 2 min after the close officially - not anything past that

Tradestation locked up here so

Posted by matt on 17th of Sep 2021 at 04:00 pm

Tradestation locked up here so will have to wait a few min. No second entry on the Trend/Pullback of course

SPY is ex dividend. so

Posted by arun on 17th of Sep 2021 at 02:52 pm

SPY is ex dividend. so is the second entry still the same as you had mentioned few days ago

I have no way to

Posted by matt on 17th of Sep 2021 at 03:36 pm

I have no way to account for that ex dividend days

Systems Trades - I'd love

Posted by elementsix on 17th of Sep 2021 at 02:30 pm

Systems Trades - I'd love to be alerted when EACH of the systems enter/add/exit a position. I know you guys put a lot of time, research and effort into the strategy of the various systems and I appreciate the option to utilize as many as possible. Thanks!

Agree I like to see

Posted by retirefire on 17th of Sep 2021 at 02:32 pm

Agree I like to see all the systems called out. Member's can decide and take responsibility for playing or not and how they play them. 

Can you show the stats

Posted by cozz101 on 17th of Sep 2021 at 02:28 pm

Can you show the stats on the new sub system QE BTS LE1.  Is this the same as QE BTS which I think has always been part of the spy system? 

that stats are located in

Posted by matt on 17th of Sep 2021 at 03:24 pm

that stats are located in the SPY section, it's not a new system

I like it when you

Posted by focus175 on 17th of Sep 2021 at 02:27 pm

I like it when you keep them separate since they are different systems

Hi Steve,

Thank you for this write-up. Even after trading for many years, this remains great advice for all not only the newbies out there.   

awesome writeup! thanks for taking the time to write that up Steve

VIX observations

Posted by matt on 18th of Sep 2021 at 01:32 pm

The upper bollinger bands on the VIX now have a very flat slope. The VIX was just shy of closing outside its upper BB's on Friday, but with the slope so flat could easily do so on Monday.

that said here's one scenario I could see unfold: should there be more weakness on Monday, this would cause the VIX to close outside it's upper BB's, then we have the FOMC on Wednesday. Because of the 'flatness' of the upper bands, I could see the VIX closing outside its upper BBands but then close back inside again for a quick buy signal - then see the market rally - one option would have it form a lower high wave B, then down again in C. We'll see....

SPY trades updated

Posted by matt on 18th of Sep 2021 at 12:45 pm

I didn't add the new SPY system trade to the table last night, had to run out, added it today, that section and the trade tables are updated

https://breakpointtrades.com/spy_trades/ 

by the way, Friday the SPY went ex-dividend, so that helped offset losses on the 1st entry Trend/Pullback if you own the ETF, 1.376 is the dividend 

clearly on more weakness the Trend/Pullback is likely to take a 2nd entry. Too bad that system missed the exit by 3 cents, almost exited twice last week - maybe in the future when it's that close I'll just go ahead and exit anyway as I consider that noise, but whatever

Trader's comments with some editing on my own.

Posted by steve on 18th of Sep 2021 at 10:43 am

If you want to get into investments. Find what your good at and be passionate.  There are many here that are elite at what they do and my advice is stay focused on what you do well.  You can expand your horizons once comfortable - but stay in your lanes first and foremost.  I know my lanes and try to stay out of the gutter - there are smarter folks out there but I have learned how to succeed in this arena.  Believe me when I say there is a learning curve. 

The best traders/investors I know understand probabilities - they place their bets and know their time frames.   I make plenty of mistakes and there are highs and lows for sure.   Some are simply not wired to play this game and thus completely rely upon 3rd party advisors (which is fine).  Do what's right for you.   A hybrid approach is a good alternative.

Sometimes it's about seeing an opening and pouncing on it but this requires conviction which comes from solid methodology and/or due diligence.  Even then, there will be unforeseen obstacles (for instance Covid 19).   They don't teach betting in CFA level 4 - like good card players, there are times to press or refrain.   What tends to negatively impact my performance at times is complacency (being human). 

Sounds easy but we all know that there are nuances to consider:

1. A Good Plan (most important) 2. Proper Tools 3. Mental Preparation/Tolerance 4. Drive to Succeed 5. Times for patience vs aggressive 6. Execute your plan precisely 7. Tune out the noise

See above sticky post how BPT can assist in this regard (primarily with education and tools).   One day you’ll look back at the start of your career and be super proud of yourself how far you’ve come. 

man that is just unreal! never heard of such a thing. 

Thanks Matt! 

SPY systems update

Posted by skitexas67 on 17th of Sep 2021 at 08:20 pm

Thanks Matt! 

Nomura Comments

Posted by steve on 17th of Sep 2021 at 06:00 pm

"CTAs remain ‘max long’ in US and Euro stocks. Sell triggers are 4378 & 4122 in ES and VG respectively. A breach would be the first sell signal since Nov. 2020. Expected outflows of 15bn from SPX, and 9bn from SX5E.

Good analogy - honestly it's about management execution at this stage more than anything as the marketplace is enormous.  They have an outstanding product, team, and partners (NCR Flextronics  Accenture Zebra and Wanzl) in an industry in dire need of change.  We refer to this a a disruptive technology - there are only a few in the marketplace each year.  This will take time to unfold with rolling pilots in several countries underway the rest of this year and many more countries next year with rolling orders upon pilot completion for those who decide to  transition to the new platform. Not every pilot will lead to orders or some may order later which is typical in early stage transitions.  Sales will begin to flow next year and ramp at a pace consistent with how quickly grocers transition, As the carts deployed increase so will the recurring advertising revenues.  Their other businesses will likely be spun off into a separate company early next year.  

WanzlGmbH & Co. KGaA is the world's largest manufacturerof shoppingtrolleys fyi

AAZZD--AAZZF     do not look at this as a trade although theres always opportunities for partial profit taking---  look at it as high  quality opportunity in a private placement

these good ones are rare.!!!!

My heavens that's nuts - anyway I'm glad you were able to resolve.   Trade your plan and best wishes.  Always wise to take some profits after extended moves like what just unfolded recently.  

$AAZZD - $AAZZF The other thing was TD tried to charge me for the reverse split.  I wrote them to ask why I should be paying for something I have no control over and that Fidelity didn't charge anything and turned it around in a day; not 2 weeks like TD did.  They issued a credit to me.

GH and SPOT are a

Posted by steve on 17th of Sep 2021 at 04:56 pm

GH and SPOT are a couple decent looking charts 

More advancers today than decliners on the Nasdaq while NQ was down 200 points.  Shows you the impact of the big cap names on the QQQ/NQ

$AAZZF  The other thing is people DON'T need to look at it every day; especially swing or longer term players.

starting to breakdown...

SPX  RSI2 - Seems to

Posted by EdZ on 17th of Sep 2021 at 04:25 pm

SPX  RSI2 - Seems to bounce with RSI2 divergences.

TastyWorks? Any good? I've dropped CNBC in the background recently for TastyTrade live (at least part of the day...once CNBC starts repeating themselves).  Seeing how they can move their strikes around quickly to analyze complex strategies quickly has me pretty jealous...but I don't want to dump a big account into a broker that seems to be targeting smaller/ newbie trader accounts..

Newsletter

Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!