3309 Drysdale Ct
Edwardsville, IL 62025
Once again, the above video link provides an overview
referencing current stock market conditions relative to similar
past readings. This would be most relevant for position
investors (such as retirement accounts) to monitor on a weekly
This is NOT a
forecast just data points at this time. Continue to keep an
open mind and respect the message of the market.
Markets are fluid and subject to change as we all know - key is
to establish a methodology that fits with your beliefs. You
can also incorporate a hybrid approach with your portfolio by
position investing certain funds for longer term (accepting
volatility until EVIDENCE changes) and dedicating other funds to
short term trading. Those are decisions for each individual.
If you have yet to formalize an investing/trading approach
please take some time to formalize a template - you can always
adjust but it's best to have something in place. From there,
you should formulate a PLAN that entails your objectives.
Once a plan is in place, then you can refine down to which
specific securities you want to invest and/or trade. This is
a TOP DOWN approach that should be enacted PRIOR to looking for
trades. Just like a Football team(or any sports team) - the
General manager has a vision/approach on how he/she wants to build
a team. Then he/she hires a coach to devise a scheme around those
players to maximize their talents. Next, the coach puts
into place a weekly game plan (making necessary adjustments) before
finally selecting specific plays.
How does BPT come into this picture? Think of BPT like a
consultant/assistant coach who helps to make your job easier
along the way. We provide daily analysis of several markets
which helps to provide some guidance as to how we see things.
We also spend a considerable amount of time providing tips
and educational examples to help execute you plan. Think of
the DVT approach for swing trades and the nightly discussion of
charts involving patterns and candlesticks, etc. We
also scan for and offer trade suggestions (ideas) that we believe
are valid setups and we take time to review the triggered setups in
the following days. Partake in only the ideas that fit into
your plan and simply ignore ones that don't. Finally, we
spend time posting relevant comments and numerous charts every day
in the trading community relating to what transpiring during that
trading session and updating trade ideas.
Steve, how does one access the "Ciovacco Historical
Perspective Charts?" I would imagine you need to be a
He puts out a weekly video via Twitter on Friday Night
Hi Matt/steve, is today highly likely to be a trend day?
as I mentioned last week I was going to put the Zoom meeting
back up on my other PC so you can view some of these charts live.
I put a variety of charts on here from the daily SPX KISS,
120 min, 1/2 day, and all the way down to 3 min. I also
placed the TICK Extreme 1 min SPX chart on there so you can see
where those come in. Note, in order to get all these charts on here
I am using a 4K monitor. It will look small for most of you at the
full 4K native resolution. However you can choose to 'zoom' in to
see the charts larger. Also I'm not on the Zoom talking, I
just have it up so you can view some charts. Also please make
sure to mute your mics
to view the live charts
Hello Matt, thank you for setting up ZOOM access to the KISS
charts. Would it be possible to add real-time daily KISS charts for
gold and long-term treasury bonds (TLT)? I am interested in
possible buy signals and DVT levels.
The Zoom works again, sorry about that it's been up since Monday
night. I have to use ZOOM sometimes for personal use and when I do
that I change the ID so that people can't come onto my private
Zoom. I have to remember to change the ID back for the website,
sometimes I forget. This is what happened on Monday, I had a
private Zoom meeting with a client on Monday night then forget to
change it back to the ID for the website
Is the Zoom intra day access up today? Still getting an
“Invalid meeting ID” error message when clicking on
“Click Here” link.
Is the Zoom intra day access up today? Getting an “Invalid
meeting ID” error message when clicking on “Click
First time to attempt to access Zoon charts but not working for
me. All I get is a blank screen with my first name in the middle of
the screen and I am the only participant. Is there something I need
to set up first to access the charts?
zoom is up, had issues with that PC this morning
Is Zoom going to be up today?
Zoom is back up. I'm still never sure what causes it to shut
down, I know that it only stays up for so long, but usually I shut
it down and restart it about 10 or 11 pm and many times it will
stay open until 10 or 11 am the next morning, then other times it
shuts down early maybe 3 or 4 am. Whatever, should probably just
shut it off before bed and not bother having it up all night then
simply turn it on in the morning again
how do you get on the zoom?
There is a sticky post above here in the Trading Community -
take you mouse and click on the Title line which will open the post
where you will find link to Zoom.
regarding the KISS stuff, as you know I made that sector
workspace with all the major sectors on it. I'm probably going to
do the same for some other lists of stocks like maybe one with 20
of the major gold/silver stocks on it. I'd also like to make one
for the IBD 20 stocks (the IBD 50 is too many for one workspace),
and maybe one for Motley Fool charts
that said - does anyone here have an IBD subscription? If so can
you send me their IBD 20 stock list? firstname.lastname@example.org
Please keeping posting these, they are very helpful. I just
bought a little XLE for a trade noticing how close price was to the
DVT and with the cycle buy. Put my stop in right away so not
Same with SMH because it looks like this has a nice pattern; AMD
and AMAT kind of looking the same but I personally like to use
etf's to mediate risk a little.
XLV looks like it's breaking out today too; hope it's for
Happy New Year!
never mind on sending me the IBD 20, I have them.
here's the IBD 20 stocks on one workspace
Here's a workspace I created that I could add to Zoom - I added
all the sector ETF's with DVT's
or maybe this one, has all in one, includes the indexes,
sectors, and a few stocks
FWIW I prefer having more stocks and less ETFs
LOL yeah that's the issue, what stocks, gonna be different for
everyone, no easy way there and you would never everyone happy.
is the zoom access down or is it just me?
I have seen this issue before. The thread gets updated and at
least some of us lose the original ZOOM room link. I can't see it
anymore either. I had the link saved and when I try to use the
saved link it now prompts for a password so I imagine the link has
there is no password, the link is always the same, get it from
the sticky post
I've been in the IT business for 40 years so I'm pretty good
with a computer. There is no visible link to the Zoom call in this
thread (at least for me). When I click on the SAVED link I had for
it in my own computer's browser (Microsoft Edge) which has been
working I get this. I'm unable to enter the room without a
password. Is my link wrong? If so then please post the updated
link. If my link is correct then why am I being prompted for a
password? I've not had any issue getting into Zoom when I was given
a good link. Thank you, Matt.
Mystery solved. When I view the full thread the very top comment
from Matt with the Zoom link is HIDDEN! I have to click on
the title of the thread (red arrow) to expose both Matt's comments
AND the link to the Zoom meeting. Don't know why the entire thread
is expanded for me EXCEPT the first post but at least I know what's
going on now. Sorry for any confusion. Hope this helps others who
experienced the same issue.
I added the words, click to expand at the end of the condense
link there as that should avoid confusion with others in the
The zoom link is at the top of the page. I'm in the meeting but
I have a blank screen. Does anyone else see anything?
Yes it turned black. It was up until a few minutes ago.
Signed out and back in. Still black.
No, i also cannot access it
Sweet...I like the second one; has all the stuff I like to
trade. This is really helpful!
that would be very nice to have
Zoom is up, I changed the SPX cash to ES futures so you can
monitor how they behave. ES future were down 17 points at one point
are now positive
Trump signed stimulus bill and ES responded by moving up 20
voice audio has been added for the DVT prices, and A Amateur
Hour on the zoom
interesting, 120 in chart of XLE went long see vertical line
with DVT, basically an abc buy
the Zoom is back up. Also I'll be taking it down in the
later afternoon , I need to do some updates there
No Zoom today?
I said earlier that I took it off today working on that
FYI I'll be taking the Zoom computer offline shortly. I need to
do some work on it and other things with the charts there. It
will not be available for the rest of the day, but will back up
some of you may have noticed from Zoom, the 120 min SPX flipped
back long earlier
red-green-red-green? Are we going back long on the system
again if it stays that way?
One thing to keep in mind, many index funds go x-div this
Friday. Could be some buying to capture that too?
if you went long on the 120 minute on friday . where do
you place your stop at 3634 spx the previous low . thanks
you can see the DVT price on the Zoom, however there's no new
DVT price, same as yesterday
zoom is back up
The the Zoom charts we are looking to add audio voice for
various indicators whenever they generate a change such as when you
get a new cycle support or resistance, maybe the 9 Sequential, but
also could add whenever a new DVT is generates or if is an abc buy
from the KISS. Here's some examples of how that could sound. I
probably wouldn't put it on every chart, maybe 1/2 day, 120 min,
60, 30, 15 min. Probably not needed on daily for obvious reasons.
We'll see I'll probably test it next week
New DVT price generated
New Cycle support/or resistance
so regarding the Zoom - I added real audio voice alerts for the
cycles so whenever there's a new cycle support or resistance you
will hear something like "New cycle support generated on the 15 min
ES chart". I will be adding the voice alert for the DVT
prices as well so whenever there's a new DVT price on say the 120
min charts or daily, a voice will say "New DVT price generated on
the 120 min QQQ chart at 305". I may also add voice alerts
for the A's that pop up, amateur traders, or the 9 sequential
Denmark, but not sure if that would be too much or not. Not like
they pop up that much however. Will probably add those extra
voice alerts either late this week or on weekend
Sounds like the future is here!
What a great idea!!! Easy access and less
stress for Matt and subscribers ..Still wish we
had XLE charts and GDX charts like we do on the SPY. maybe
one day ??
The Zoom is back up - remember it can only stay open so long
before the auto shutoff. should be good rest of the day. I
added that Demark indicator so you'll see a 9 on the charts now
during a 9 sequential Demark type of move. Here's a article on
Demark, again it's widely followed by a lot of traders
Also regarding the Zoom charts, I added a Demark type of
designation and now when there's a 9 sequential Demark type of
sequence, the chart is marked with a 9, both on uptrends and
the Zoom is up guys
new DVT on the the 120 min SPX not surprisingly, you can see it
on the Zoom charts
otherwise short term intra day the market got very overbought,
in fact my new derivative indicator gave a nice short to me on a 5
min chart for a nice short on ES futures
you can see that indicator there on the 10 min you can see the
MA ribbons got stupid wide and the indicator flipped there with the
magenta line indicating a reversal was coming, I had triggered on a
2 min chart though. anyway I'm in the process of adding that
indicator to the Zoom charts, however I still want to figure out a
different formatting to make it pop more
looks like a new DVT on the 120 min SPX
first off that Zoom meeting is back up.
Also here's a setup to burn into your mind, we discussed it last
week, that 4 color change on the BPT MA. It's especially powerful
when it occurs and price is still above the ATR.
last night I saw this pattern and went long ES futures at 3622,
currently 3639, when I saw the setup. was really obvious on
the 195 min and 120 min time frames. The 120 min time frame has
that cycle right there and price was close to the ATR.
I may start to save some of these examples for future
Hello all hope your Thanksgiving is going well. Anyway I'll go
ahead and put the Zoom back up on ES futures, they will start
trading at 6 pm EST. They closed down about 9 points in after
hrs yesterday from the Wed close
Matt, thank you for letting us view your streaming Zoom
meeeting. It helped my intraday trades significantly. Happy
awesome! happy to share. A few bugs to figure out, once in
a while Zoom just stops working etc, I think there's a time limit
where I need to close the meeting and restart it. At night I'll put
ES futures for the middle cycle charts.
anyway glad it helps and you can see the DVT's and cycles show
up in real time.
the Zoom is back up in case you didn't realize
note - for the Zoom I changed the cycle charts in the middle
from SPX cash to ES futures to reflect after hrs. I'll leave
the Zoom up, I have to run to an appointment
The zoom is back up, it had lost connection earlier.
Here's an image of all those charts. note on the daily one of
the BPT MA Deluxe indicators trying to go green. On the 120 min
price stalling some at the underside of the ATR. The TICK extremes
chart is on the upper right and plots horizontal lines when the
TICK spikes over 1000, this goes back 5 months, therefore lines can
be from months ago unless you are at new highs.
image from the Zoom - note on the Tick extreme chart on the
upper right. once we took out that line at 3605, that enabled the
market to push again to the next tick extreme. This current one
goes back to Nov 16th
One thing to point out is short term some of these ribbons are
VERY wide, 5 min etc, price may need to consolidate soon intra
otherwise hope you guys like having the real time views through
here's that TICK extreme chart, every time you break one of
those levels you tend to get a nice move. This morning right away
price broke above that TiCK extreme from 3605, that alloed a move
up to the next one at 3612, and once that was broken we had free
air until the 3641 above - which goes back no Nov 6th
that tick extreme from Nov 9 overhead was a magnet, notice price
popped right up to it
you can see how price pulled back right from that Tick extreme
high from Nov9th, tagged it an hr ago and pulled off it
I'll put up the Zoom now with the ES futures and change out
tomorrow after the market opens to the indexes
I'll put that ZOOM up again tomorrow morning
(: i loaded up friday like to see this play out
You can do anything you want. IWM/QQQ, Banks/500, etc.
Not sure Semis to QQQs is what I was looking for but this chart
sure look like it's setting up for a MASSIVE double top... JS.
You are Chart Boy. I am Chart Noise (my new Ninja
Great insight ! Only safe play is CASH in short term and
then wait for it as you say.
If you really do want to do the intra-market analysis very
closely the next few days, set up all your relatives like this so
you dont have to do it all mentally on the fly intraday.
Based on decades of observing retail, professional and
institutional traders, that type of hypothetical approach is
relatively pointless at these times. Unless you are running
enormous amounts of money and trying stay relatively market neutral
while capturing alpha (in which case you have quant programs making
those decisions for you) no one makes consistent money trading that
way at this point in a cycle.
Instead, the most successful traders simply trade what
they see on shorter time frames when they actually see it and
then execute in whichever product they are seeing it in.
For example, if we gap up in the morning, look to see where the
relative strength is. If it is the NDX, and especially the SMHs,
that would favor the long side of everything. Then, if you are not
already long, take the break of the first 15 min range looking for
a trend day higher if it is to the upside or at a minimum a gap
fill if it is to the downside (though I would probably look for a
filling of the Feb 2nd gap as well).
Now is not the time so try to make decision based on
intra/inter-market analysis. By definition, we are at point of a
potential trend change, so until we get some resolution there is
really nothing to analyze on time frames beyond a few
IWM/DOW vs. QQQs/SnP. - Which scenario is more likely ?
Would love to see a voting tool from the community or maybe
we could use Twitter ??? Scenario A - The DOW and IWM hold
the line (like the Reddit crew have so far failed at) and the QQQs
and SnP recover to new highs ? OR Scenario B - that the
QQQs/SnP bounce for 1-2 weeks while IWM and DOW lose their monthly
9s while forming further divergence and bear flags and then we get
a unified push down ? Some other prediction charts posted
weeks ago showed a big zig-zag (W pattern) between Feb - April
followed by a massive rally up only to face a massive sell off in
fall. My preferred view is Scenario B and I would love to
see AAPL get back up to 133 on the bounce/broken trend line and act
as the Canary for the start of the proper down move. A
positive (expected) Jobs number Friday will lead to major turmoil
in the Bond Market and everything could roll over. I do not
believe there is any scenario where the QQQs and SnP continue lower
while the IWM and DOW continue higher - even though this is what
all the main stream media / rotation crew will have us believe.
Trying to figure out how to play it - Short DOW and IWM, Long
QQQs and SnP for the week is what I'm thinking.
Gold and Silver bouncing nicely, up 1 and 2 percent respectively
off Friday’s lows after becoming over extended to the
downside to reach the 1.618 expansion target in Gold.
The set up is very similar to what we saw in SPX and SMH at the
recent highs when they over extended to the upside to reach
long term expansion targets.
Thanks for the reply! I don’t think we will get a
big pull back from here. The SQQQ is a good tool to have
yeah wouldn't surprise me to see a bounce from here. that said a
bounce has the potential at least to form a RS or lower high on the
QQQ's, however from a timing symmetry you would need that bounce to
occur over about a week or so,
I’m not sure how to approach this steverobin . I think
it’s better to observe breadth and price action tomorrow
before we get an idea. One option is to just buy SQQQ so we can
trade it after hours as well.
I personally don’t believe we are going to crash.
We have jobs numbers Friday. Which typically is bullish for
I had tesla puts for Friday but I closed them last minute
because I was concerned if we get a new month inflows
Literally, the first time I can remember using an Andrews
Pitchfork in over a decade was about two weeks ago when I noted
that the regression channels and uptrends in SLV were inconsistent
with the price oscillations I was expecting (I was expecting a
downswing but we were were already on the support lines). Friday,
we gapped down and bounced off the lower fork I had created. Given
the price action and Gold's bounce at the 1.618 expansion it is
clear that Friday's selloff was not some random reaction to other
assets as is the case many days in the metals.
True. Virtually all crashes happened from oversold conditions,
not from new highs.
Which expiration and strike?
Every one of the signals in that chart occurred in a raging bull
market. Be careful not to extrapolate bull market activity
into perpetuity. By definition, in meaningful corrections oversold
markets get more oversold and stay more oversold while prices are
declining when compared to the preceding bull phase.
Part of the process of putting tops in involves
“gaffing” shorts several times before the real reversal
occurs and training the Johnny come latelies to buy every dip. That
gets the crowd thinking exactly what you are when the break
In fact a classic bear maneuver is to trace out inverted head
and shoulder patterns, to let the uneducated bulls buy them as they
break out slights, and then immediately reverse them and break them
straight down to new lows.
Point being, the macro trends will dominate the micro patterns.
While the Dow may have made that pattern last month, the NDX and
SPX, etc have deteriorated significantly since, so the environment
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