3309 Drysdale Ct
Edwardsville, IL 62025
Once again, the above video link provides an overview
referencing current stock market conditions relative to similar
past readings. This would be most relevant for position
investors (such as retirement accounts) to monitor on a weekly
This is NOT a
forecast just data points at this time. Continue to keep an
open mind and respect the message of the market.
Markets are fluid and subject to change as we all know - key is
to establish a methodology that fits with your beliefs. You
can also incorporate a hybrid approach with your portfolio by
position investing certain funds for longer term (accepting
volatility until EVIDENCE changes) and dedicating other funds to
short term trading. Those are decisions for each individual.
If you have yet to formalize an investing/trading approach
please take some time to formalize a template - you can always
adjust but it's best to have something in place. From there,
you should formulate a PLAN that entails your objectives.
Once a plan is in place, then you can refine down to which
specific securities you want to invest and/or trade. This is
a TOP DOWN approach that should be enacted PRIOR to looking for
trades. Just like a Football team(or any sports team) - the
General manager has a vision/approach on how he/she wants to build
a team. Then he/she hires a coach to devise a scheme around those
players to maximize their talents. Next, the coach puts
into place a weekly game plan (making necessary adjustments) before
finally selecting specific plays.
How does BPT come into this picture? Think of BPT like a
consultant/assistant coach who helps to make your job easier
along the way. We provide daily analysis of several markets
which helps to provide some guidance as to how we see things.
We also spend a considerable amount of time providing tips
and educational examples to help execute you plan. Think of
the DVT approach for swing trades and the nightly discussion of
charts involving patterns and candlesticks, etc. We
also scan for and offer trade suggestions (ideas) that we believe
are valid setups and we take time to review the triggered setups in
the following days. Partake in only the ideas that fit into
your plan and simply ignore ones that don't. Finally, we
spend time posting relevant comments and numerous charts every day
in the trading community relating to what transpiring during that
trading session and updating trade ideas.
Steve, how does one access the "Ciovacco Historical
Perspective Charts?" I would imagine you need to be a
He puts out a weekly video via Twitter on Friday Night
Hi Matt/steve, is today highly likely to be a trend day?
took a trade
A different SPY
sub system, the QE LE took a 1st entry long: $10K SPY ETF, and 1
SPY Call option Nov 19th expiration with a strike price of
Quick update, so far no second entry on the Trend/Pullback,
price needs to close below 440.44, not that far away for a Friday
afternoon. Remember 2 days in a row it missed exiting by a few
pennies, in hindsight I probably should have just exited 1/2 anyway
since it was so close and the fact that Steve and I leaned bearish,
but is what it is. I know that some of you elected to exit 1/2 or
more anyway and are in good shape.
That said should the market end at the lows today it's possible
that a new sub system make take a 1st entry, the QE BTS LE1 - which
you see on the upper left. I'm trying to decide if I count this one
as a separate system trade or not since we already have the one
open one. If the You can let me know your thoughts on that -
The QE LE and Trend/Pullback are different systems so we would exit
by their rules. The reason I have the various system is for
diversification. Again follow what you wish, I'll just report
what the various sub systems do.
Remember what these systems do have are mutually exclusive
to the technical market analysis that Steve and I
SPY systems took a trade
A different SPY sub system, the QE LE took a 1st entry long:
$10K SPY ETF, and 1 SPY Call option Nov 19th expiration with a
strike price of 428
Thanks for posting Matt!
After hours prices count? (technically not after hours for
SPY until 15 minutes after the broad market closes)
prices confirm for the daily candle in Tradestation 2 min after
the close officially - not anything past that
Tradestation locked up here so will have to wait a few min. No
second entry on the Trend/Pullback of course
SPY is ex dividend. so is the second entry still the same as you
had mentioned few days ago
I have no way to account for that ex dividend days
Systems Trades - I'd love to be alerted when EACH of the systems
enter/add/exit a position. I know you guys put a lot of time,
research and effort into the strategy of the various systems and I
appreciate the option to utilize as many as possible. Thanks!
Agree I like to see all the systems called out. Member's can
decide and take responsibility for playing or not and how they play
Can you show the stats on the new sub system QE BTS LE1.
Is this the same as QE BTS which I think has always been part
of the spy system?
that stats are located in the SPY section, it's not a new
I like it when you keep them separate since they are different
Thank you for this write-up. Even after trading for many years,
this remains great advice for all not only the newbies out there.
awesome writeup! thanks for taking the time to write that up
The upper bollinger bands on the VIX now have a very flat slope.
The VIX was just shy of closing outside its upper BB's on Friday,
but with the slope so flat could easily do so on Monday.
that said here's one scenario I could see unfold: should there
be more weakness on Monday, this would cause the VIX to close
outside it's upper BB's, then we have the FOMC on Wednesday.
Because of the 'flatness' of the upper bands, I could see the VIX
closing outside its upper BBands but then close back inside again
for a quick buy signal - then see the market rally - one option
would have it form a lower high wave B, then down again in C. We'll
I didn't add the new SPY system trade to the table last night,
had to run out, added it today, that section and the trade tables
by the way, Friday the SPY went ex-dividend, so that helped
offset losses on the 1st entry Trend/Pullback if you own the ETF,
1.376 is the dividend
clearly on more weakness the Trend/Pullback is likely to take a
2nd entry. Too bad that system missed the exit by 3 cents, almost
exited twice last week - maybe in the future when it's that close
I'll just go ahead and exit anyway as I consider that noise, but
SPX Stats for Week After
If you want to get into investments. Find what your good at and
be passionate. There are many here that are elite at what
they do and my advice is stay focused on what you do well.
You can expand your horizons once comfortable - but stay in
your lanes first and foremost. I know my lanes and try to
stay out of the gutter - there are smarter folks out there but I
have learned how to succeed in this arena. Believe me when I
say there is a learning curve.
The best traders/investors I know understand probabilities -
they place their bets and know their time frames. I make
plenty of mistakes and there are highs and lows for sure.
Some are simply not wired to play this game and thus completely
rely upon 3rd party advisors (which is fine). Do what's right
for you. A hybrid approach is a good alternative.
Sometimes it's about seeing an opening and pouncing on it but
this requires conviction which comes from solid methodology and/or
due diligence. Even then, there will be unforeseen obstacles
(for instance Covid 19). They don't teach betting in CFA
level 4 - like good card players, there are times to press or
refrain. What tends to negatively impact my performance at
times is complacency (being human).
Sounds easy but we all know that there are nuances to
1. A Good Plan (most important) 2. Proper Tools 3. Mental
Preparation/Tolerance 4. Drive to Succeed 5. Times for patience vs
aggressive 6. Execute your plan precisely 7. Tune out the noise
See above sticky post how BPT can assist in this regard
(primarily with education and tools). One day you’ll
look back at the start of your career and be super proud of
yourself how far you’ve come.
$ETHUSD - Chart Link
$BTCUSD - Chart Link
man that is just unreal! never heard of such a thing.
"CTAs remain ‘max long’ in US and Euro stocks. Sell
triggers are 4378 & 4122 in ES and VG respectively. A breach
would be the first sell signal since Nov. 2020. Expected outflows
of 15bn from SPX, and 9bn from SX5E.
Good analogy - honestly it's about management execution at this
stage more than anything as the marketplace is enormous. They
have an outstanding product, team, and partners (NCR Flextronics
Accenture Zebra and Wanzl) in an industry in dire need of
change. We refer to this a a disruptive technology - there
are only a few in the marketplace each year. This will take
time to unfold with rolling pilots in several countries underway
the rest of this year and many more countries next year with
rolling orders upon pilot completion for those who decide to
transition to the new platform. Not every pilot will lead to
orders or some may order later which is typical in early stage
transitions. Sales will begin to flow next year and ramp at a
pace consistent with how quickly grocers transition, As the carts
deployed increase so will the recurring advertising revenues.
Their other businesses will likely be spun off into a
separate company early next year.
WanzlGmbH & Co. KGaA is the world's largest
AAZZD--AAZZF do not look at this as a trade
although theres always opportunities for partial profit taking---
look at it as high quality opportunity in a private
these good ones are rare.!!!!
My heavens that's nuts - anyway I'm glad you were able to
resolve. Trade your plan and best wishes. Always wise
to take some profits after extended moves like what just unfolded
$AAZZD - $AAZZF The other thing was TD tried to charge me for
the reverse split. I wrote them to ask why I should be paying
for something I have no control over and that Fidelity didn't
charge anything and turned it around in a day; not 2 weeks like TD
did. They issued a credit to me.
GH and SPOT are a couple decent looking charts
More advancers today than decliners on the Nasdaq while NQ was
down 200 points. Shows you the impact of the big cap names on
$AAZZF The other thing is people DON'T need to look at it
every day; especially swing or longer term players.
starting to breakdown...
SPX RSI2 - Seems to bounce with RSI2 divergences.
TastyWorks? Any good? I've dropped CNBC in the background
recently for TastyTrade live (at least part of the day...once CNBC
starts repeating themselves). Seeing how they can move their
strikes around quickly to analyze complex strategies quickly has me
pretty jealous...but I don't want to dump a big account into a
broker that seems to be targeting smaller/ newbie trader
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