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Really great stuff Matt, helps a lot. Thank you

SPX I took a double

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 6th of Dec 2022 at 03:59 pm

SPX I took a double my normal size entry long via SPXL off the 3,920s area where I released another 1/3 of my hedge position (SPXS) into the strength. I have 1/3 of my hedge position left (took that trade originally with the system on Friday close) and a great entry long into an overshoot of the demand zone (today). 

I sold the small bounce premarket this morning after buying SPXL yesterday at 3,987, the low 4,000 and change somewhere is where I sold. Didn't like the gap, though certainly didn't expect this dump. Patience has paid this week. Pretty stretched away from the 5 and 9 day mas again here now, risk/reward:

https://schrts.co/qedpsEzU

SPX VIX One of the

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 6th of Dec 2022 at 01:07 pm

SPX VIX One of the things of note about the market currently is that the VIX has just begun to rally off the bottom area support and stocks haven't fallen all that much yet from the most recent rally to 4,100. The VIX has a long way to go to get truly extended as it has in this wide trading range all year ($19-20 up to $34-35 or so) and the SPX would have a long way to go if it were going to fall hard at some point be it this year or next year. 

SPX: https://schrts.co/TEZVwGYS

VIX: https://schrts.co/urJkBypV

I'm still of the opinion that the probability is that the market doesn't crash to new lows before year end, though it certainly is not impossible..it would just be very rare without something else major occuring. I think the answer is somewhere in between, meaning it doesn't blast higher either. 

Gaps below are 3,748 and 3,583 either way. First two gaps above are now at 4,071.70 and 4,110.41. 

Lots of things lining up here, demand zone support, pivot point, other indicators. If scaling either way or both, certainly an area to consider objectively for being able to do so or plan otherwise. Great stuff on providing that early today, Steve! I appreciate you

Also thought Matt made a good call with taking some off yesterday as the market could have went either way. This kind of range with so many possibilities is the kind of market when I'm trading, I'll trade in pieces until a more clear risk/reward shot comes into view. As is often discussed here, don't have to be an all or nothing trader, etc. 

BOWL they just made another

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 6th of Dec 2022 at 09:59 am

BOWL they just made another acquisition. Impressive performance this year for the stock, had no idea. 

Top of demand zone to the nose so far 3,977, nice call Steve 

JPM double upgraded by Morgan

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 6th of Dec 2022 at 09:46 am

JPM double upgraded by Morgan Stanley (says a lot as they are major bears in general historically speaking). 

I agree, one of the best run banks and a buy on any major pullbacks into demand zones. 

..continue to watch for when Jamie Dimon buys shares again as a signal. They are resuming buybacks next year as well. 

We are in Georgia, I'm

Market News

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 6th of Dec 2022 at 09:09 am

We are in Georgia, I'm celebrating the end to all the ads today   

Cake is on the way! 

Trea Turner (What can be

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 6th of Dec 2022 at 07:31 am

Trea Turner (What can be learned from one of the greatest all tool MLB players in the game), excerpt from my journal notes 12/06/22:

I've watched him for many years now since his early days with the Washington Nationals, last year he played with the Dodgers. Watching him game to game, at bat to at bat, he simply "turns the page" better than 99% of the players I've ever seen. What that means is, his ability to take each at bat and play as separate from others is incredible. It is not that he doesn't have his moments of reaction or frustration, though he moves on quickly after those experiences. 

I play a hobby game with a friend during the season where we compete with our players. Part of the game is creating a hitting streak. You can use any player you like. Trea was the most consistent in this area last year, having multiple double digit hitting streaks during the year, some in the 20s games in length, including 3 of the top 5 in the National League at 26 (the top), 20, and 18 respectively. He went very few individual games without getting at least one hit. I've seen more than a few interviews with Dodgers coach, Dave Roberts where they asked him about Trea and he has said this more than once in regards to this being one of his biggest assets in regards to him being able to "turn the page". Baseball tools aside, he clearly has worked on this important part of life. 

I've continued to work on this in my life and will until the day I die. A few of my tools are journaling (I go back and read my entries sometimes and often learn from them, it also helps me see where I'm at now and gain insight), exercise, diet, therapy, prayer/meditation, hobbies like artwork, baking, games, reading, connecting with friends/family, enjoying travel, experiencing the joy of others as they share their personal passions..it has become fun to explore new ways to look at myself and how I'm "doing life" so to speak and benefit from the views of others. The use of my time, my attitude, experiences, how I treat others, and myself are in consideration. And also, that eventually translates into everything I do personally and professionally. I'll go into some of the things I used to do with coping with life (in another journal entry) that had to be changed which greatly affected my potential and performance. I'm by no means perfect, though I am for sure much better than my past and I'll continue to focus on this as relationships and learning how to navigate life, love, and friendship are of paramount importance for daily living. I'm grateful to God to be able to have this insight and be able to change course and have another shot at life each day. 

This is an article from 2016 where Trea talks about balancing success and failure a bit. This is one of my favorite quotes from this interview: "You've got to grow up fast, you've got to learn quickly," said Turner. "If you get caught up in failure, say you go 0-10 you get caught up in that and it can just drag on because you play every day. It's hard, you have to learn how to balance success and failure."

..there is also a short video with it when he was going from minor league ball after two years to the majors: https://spectrumlocalnews.com/tx/austin/news/2016/09/4/extra-innings-trea-turner

Fast forward to today and he just signed an 11 year deal with the Phillies for $300 million dollars. Quite the reward for his consistent mental performance, he's 29 years old, just inspiring and I've definitely learned from his example:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35190131/source-phillies-ss-trea-turner-reach-11-year-300m-deal

In the photo is from Sunday, a cake I made, cinnamon bundt with buttercream frosting..it actually came out pretty good! 

Congrats man! 

I figured the fib overshoot to the 3,985 area level and held up was a good shot. Especially on the daily had to try, thanks 

Great trade Matt! 

I took the trade on Friday before the close and split the difference risk wise by exiting 35% of my position. I'm using SPXS as my instrument the 3xetf. 

I've balanced this by going long a 1st entry off the 3,987 area via SPXL 3xetf. I know everyone uses the signals different ways. There are gaps on both sides now so no reason to get super aggressive here on either side for me here for my tolerance trading wise. 

All the best and thanks.

Good context Arun. 

re: SPX 

Another thing I've been continuing to consider and keep an open mind to is that all of the major economic reports last week that are supposed to be big market movers didn't change the uptrend at all. Working off an oversold condition for a day or two is normal, though nothing significant. You would have thought we crashed by some of the bearish comments  They were small trades that had to be capitalized on quickly. 

The message of the market has been different since the reversal off the lows and the data is suggesting that things may not be as bad as feared. In balance there may be some time for these things to work into the economy, though it just hasn't materialized. This is the problem with being married to a sentiment and demanding a result on one's personal timetable. The market decides if/when things happen, not someone making a prediction. I'll continue to make entries based on risk/reward. I can care less about being right in the public eye, just making money to take care of my family. 

Once again in balance, the two gaps below do bother me as they normally aren't left open longer term. They are at 3,748 and 3,583. It won't prevent me from playing the upside now and if I see my longer term criteria as a sell signal, I'll certainly sell my inventory purchased off of the 3,500 reversal. It just hasn't shown up as of yet, so I stay the course each day unless it does. The timing is the part that is difficult, though it is still better to stay in the present, otherwise the potential to make a mistake increases. 

Once I do my planning, I go back to my life as my plan is based on my personal tolerances and strategy. I can't be anyone else and if I try to, I won't be able to adjust as they would because I don't know what they would be doing. And even if I did, if it doesn't resonate with who I am and what I feel comfortable doing, I won't be able to do it consistently. This is why I have found it better to develop my own style instead of depending on anyone else to feed me. I need to know what to do with a degree of confidence and not have to ask someone what I should be doing. 

..and the results of those decisions are on me..like the Chris Stapleton song says, "I got nobody to blame but me". A good life lesson to take accountability and inventory of my actions and results of them in general. Realizing that I can and will make mistakes for the rest of my life is a necessary part of being a human. The question is, How will I respond to those situations, am I willing to apologize when I'm wrong? Can I have a healthy celebration of success? Will I continue to learn and consider others views as I make my decisions? Am I able to navigate healthy sources of information and negative influences to be cautious of and/or avoid? Do I realize that I don't control the world or much except what I can as my part?  

Lots of good information provided on this site and education that can be used to develop one's personal trading/investment style. I have found being part of a community to be beneficial in formulating my thoughts, strategies, and documenting them to be able to review as part of my journal. There are many ways to do things. Another day I'm grateful to wake up and have a shot at life. Best of success this week to everyone. 

Why October’s yield curve inversion

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 2nd of Dec 2022 at 03:53 pm

Why October’s yield curve inversion might not spell doom for U.S. stocks in 2023

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-octobers-yield-curve-inversion-might-not-spell-doom-for-u-s-stocks-in-2023-11670009518

“That is, overall, while yield-curve inversions have customarily unleashed havoc on the economy, job creation, and even profits, they are not nearly as bad for the stock market as commonly advertised,” Paulsen wrote.

Jim is a great strategist, one of the few I follow. Very thoughtful work here. Good to keep an open mind. 

Thanks for playing. 

Sincerely,

Gapmaster FV 

Ha

World cup soccer coming up

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 2nd of Dec 2022 at 01:22 pm

World cup soccer coming up at 2pm: 

Cameroon vs. Brazil

Serbia vs. Switzerland 

Enjoy! 

I did both, covered some hedge and bought the dip. I usually don't come on the trading community when trading as I need to execute my plan. I do the planning when markets are closed. A lot of opportunity in that premarket on both sides to capture. And I need to capture that. 

I can read all the opinions, prognostications, and news after. My experience is that it is just part of the movie, usually a distraction, too much bias, and can cause a mistake if I spend too much time around it. The market is down 0.32% currently from yesterday's close for context. Currently at 4,063 after yesterday's higher high at 4,100 and close at 4,076. Perspective.  It also held the 200 day as support. I'l change if/when the market changes. My bias is making money, I'm not a bull or bear..I'm opportunistic. 

The market, whoever runs it, I call them "Oz" makes the rules. I just take what is given when it is given. 

$SPX new open gap at

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 2nd of Dec 2022 at 10:21 am

$SPX new open gap at 4,076.57 from yesterday's close. A magnet for upside if things continue to be stable and consolidate. Let's see. 

Also, SPY found support at the 200 day on the pullback so far. In addition to SPY, these are trading firmly above their 200 day moving averages as of the other day when I looked:

DIA - Dow Jones Industrial Average
IVE - S&P 500 Value
XLB - Materials
IBB - Biotechnology
XLF - Financials
XOP - Oil & Gas
XLV - Health Care
XLI - Industrial
BJK - Gaming
XLP - Consumer Staples

VIX What is everyone's favorite

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 2nd of Dec 2022 at 08:14 am

VIX What is everyone's favorite instrument for playing the vix? Options? 

SPY: S&P 500 ended Nov.

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 1st of Dec 2022 at 11:44 am

SPY: S&P 500 ended Nov. on a high, jumping above its 200-day MA for the first time in 7-months

An important change after months. On the white board in my office there is one statement: "Be flexible when markets change"

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