3309 Drysdale Ct
Edwardsville, IL 62025
Really great stuff Matt, helps a lot. Thank you
SPX I took a double my normal size entry long via SPXL off the
3,920s area where I released another 1/3 of my hedge position
(SPXS) into the strength. I have 1/3 of my hedge position left
(took that trade originally with the system on Friday close) and a
great entry long into an overshoot of the demand zone
I sold the small bounce premarket this morning after buying SPXL
yesterday at 3,987, the low 4,000 and change somewhere is where I
sold. Didn't like the gap, though certainly didn't expect this
dump. Patience has paid this week. Pretty stretched away from the 5
and 9 day mas again here now, risk/reward:
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SPX VIX One of the things of note about the market currently is
that the VIX has just begun to rally off the bottom area support
and stocks haven't fallen all that much yet from the most recent
rally to 4,100. The VIX has a long way to go to get truly extended
as it has in this wide trading range all year ($19-20 up to $34-35
or so) and the SPX would have a long way to go if it were going to
fall hard at some point be it this year or next year.
I'm still of the opinion that the probability is that the market
doesn't crash to new lows before year end, though it certainly is
not impossible..it would just be very rare without something else
major occuring. I think the answer is somewhere in between, meaning
it doesn't blast higher either.
Gaps below are 3,748 and 3,583 either way. First two gaps above
are now at 4,071.70 and 4,110.41.
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Lots of things lining up here, demand zone support, pivot point,
other indicators. If scaling either way or both, certainly an area
to consider objectively for being able to do so or plan otherwise.
Great stuff on providing that early today, Steve! I appreciate
Also thought Matt made a good call with taking some off
yesterday as the market could have went either way. This kind of
range with so many possibilities is the kind of market when I'm
trading, I'll trade in pieces until a more clear risk/reward shot
comes into view. As is often discussed here, don't have to be an
all or nothing trader, etc.
BOWL they just made another acquisition. Impressive performance
this year for the stock, had no idea.
Top of demand zone to the nose so far 3,977, nice call
JPM double upgraded by Morgan Stanley (says a lot as they are
major bears in general historically speaking).
I agree, one of the best run banks and a buy on any major
pullbacks into demand zones.
..continue to watch for when Jamie Dimon buys shares again as a
signal. They are resuming buybacks next year as well.
We are in Georgia, I'm celebrating the end to all the ads today
Cake is on the way!
Trea Turner (What can be learned from one of the greatest all
tool MLB players in the game), excerpt from my journal notes
I've watched him for many years now since his early days with
the Washington Nationals, last year he played with the Dodgers.
Watching him game to game, at bat to at bat, he simply "turns the
page" better than 99% of the players I've ever seen. What that
means is, his ability to take each at bat and play as separate from
others is incredible. It is not that he doesn't have his moments of
reaction or frustration, though he moves on quickly after those
I play a hobby game with a friend during the season where we
compete with our players. Part of the game is creating a hitting
streak. You can use any player you like. Trea was the most
consistent in this area last year, having multiple double digit
hitting streaks during the year, some in the 20s games in length,
including 3 of the top 5 in the National League at 26 (the top),
20, and 18 respectively. He went very few individual games without
getting at least one hit. I've seen more than a few interviews with
Dodgers coach, Dave Roberts where they asked him about Trea and he
has said this more than once in regards to this being one of his
biggest assets in regards to him being able to "turn the page".
Baseball tools aside, he clearly has worked on this important part
I've continued to work on this in my life and will until the day
I die. A few of my tools are journaling (I go back and read my
entries sometimes and often learn from them, it also helps me see
where I'm at now and gain insight), exercise, diet, therapy,
prayer/meditation, hobbies like artwork, baking, games, reading,
connecting with friends/family, enjoying travel, experiencing the
joy of others as they share their personal passions..it has become
fun to explore new ways to look at myself and how I'm "doing life"
so to speak and benefit from the views of others. The use of my
time, my attitude, experiences, how I treat others, and myself are
in consideration. And also, that eventually translates into
everything I do personally and professionally. I'll go into some of
the things I used to do with coping with life (in another journal
entry) that had to be changed which greatly affected my potential
and performance. I'm by no means perfect, though I am for sure much
better than my past and I'll continue to focus on this as
relationships and learning how to navigate life, love, and
friendship are of paramount importance for daily living. I'm
grateful to God to be able to have this insight and be able to
change course and have another shot at life each day.
This is an article from 2016 where Trea talks about balancing
success and failure a bit. This is one of my favorite quotes from
"You've got to grow up fast, you've got to learn quickly," said
Turner. "If you get caught up in failure, say you go 0-10 you get
caught up in that and it can just drag on because you play every
day. It's hard, you have to learn how to balance success and
..there is also a short video with it when he was going from
minor league ball after two years to the majors:
Fast forward to today and he just signed an 11 year deal with
the Phillies for $300 million dollars. Quite the reward for his
consistent mental performance, he's 29 years old, just inspiring
and I've definitely learned from his example:
In the photo is from Sunday, a cake I made, cinnamon bundt with
buttercream frosting..it actually came out pretty good!
I figured the fib overshoot to the 3,985 area level and held up
was a good shot. Especially on the daily had to try,
Great trade Matt!
I took the trade on Friday before the close and split the
difference risk wise by exiting 35% of my position. I'm using SPXS
as my instrument the 3xetf.
I've balanced this by going long a 1st entry off the 3,987 area
via SPXL 3xetf. I know everyone uses the signals different ways.
There are gaps on both sides now so no reason to get super
aggressive here on either side for me here for my tolerance trading
All the best and thanks.
Good context Arun.
Another thing I've been continuing to consider and keep an open
mind to is that all of the major economic reports last week that
are supposed to be big market movers didn't change the uptrend at
all. Working off an oversold condition for a day or two is normal,
though nothing significant. You would have thought we crashed by
some of the bearish comments
They were small trades that had to be capitalized on
The message of the market has been different since the reversal
off the lows and the data is suggesting that things may not be as
bad as feared. In balance there may be some time for these things
to work into the economy, though it just hasn't materialized. This
is the problem with being married to a sentiment and demanding a
result on one's personal timetable.
The market decides if/when things happen, not someone
making a prediction. I'll continue to make entries based on
risk/reward. I can care less about being right in the public eye,
just making money to take care of my family.
Once again in balance, the two gaps below do bother me as they
normally aren't left open longer term. They are at 3,748 and 3,583.
It won't prevent me from playing the upside now and if I see my
longer term criteria as a sell signal, I'll certainly sell my
inventory purchased off of the 3,500 reversal. It just hasn't shown
up as of yet, so I stay the course each day unless it does. The
timing is the part that is difficult, though it is still better to
stay in the present, otherwise the potential to make a mistake
Once I do my planning, I go back to my life as my plan is based
on my personal tolerances and strategy. I can't be anyone else and
if I try to, I won't be able to adjust as they would because I
don't know what they would be doing. And even if I did, if it
doesn't resonate with who I am and what I feel comfortable doing, I
won't be able to do it consistently. This is why I have found it
better to develop my own style instead of depending on anyone else
to feed me. I need to know what to do with a degree of confidence
and not have to ask someone what I should be doing.
..and the results of those decisions are on me..like the Chris
Stapleton song says, "I got nobody to blame but me". A good life
lesson to take accountability and inventory of my actions and
results of them in general. Realizing that I can and will make
mistakes for the rest of my life is a necessary part of being a
human. The question is, How will I respond to those situations, am
I willing to apologize when I'm wrong? Can I have a healthy
celebration of success? Will I continue to learn and consider
others views as I make my decisions? Am I able to navigate healthy
sources of information and negative influences to be cautious of
and/or avoid? Do I realize that I don't control the world or much
except what I can as my part?
Lots of good information provided on this site and education
that can be used to develop one's personal trading/investment
style. I have found being part of a community to be beneficial in
formulating my thoughts, strategies, and documenting them to be
able to review as part of my journal. There are many ways to do
things. Another day I'm grateful to wake up and have a shot at
life. Best of success this week to everyone.
“That is, overall, while yield-curve inversions have customarily
unleashed havoc on the economy, job creation, and even profits,
they are not nearly as bad for the stock market as commonly
advertised,” Paulsen wrote.
Jim is a great strategist, one of the few I follow. Very
thoughtful work here. Good to keep an open mind.
U.S. stock portfolios could avoid further damage in the year ahead, even if the U.S. economy slips into a recession, says this strategist.
Thanks for playing.
World cup soccer coming up at 2pm:
Cameroon vs. Brazil
Serbia vs. Switzerland
I did both, covered some hedge and bought the dip. I usually
don't come on the trading community when trading as I need to
execute my plan. I do the planning when markets are closed. A lot
of opportunity in that premarket on both sides to capture. And I
need to capture that.
I can read all the opinions, prognostications, and news after.
My experience is that it is just part of the movie, usually a
distraction, too much bias, and can cause a mistake if I spend too
much time around it. The market is down 0.32% currently from
yesterday's close for context. Currently at 4,063 after yesterday's
higher high at 4,100 and close at 4,076. Perspective. It also
held the 200 day as support. I'l change if/when the market changes.
My bias is making money, I'm not a bull or bear..I'm
The market, whoever runs it, I call them "Oz" makes the rules. I
just take what is given when it is given.
$SPX new open gap at 4,076.57 from yesterday's close. A magnet
for upside if things continue to be stable and consolidate. Let's
Also, SPY found support at the 200 day on the pullback so far.
In addition to SPY, these are trading firmly above their 200 day
moving averages as of the other day when I looked:
DIA - Dow Jones Industrial Average
IVE - S&P 500 Value
XLB - Materials
IBB - Biotechnology
XLF - Financials
XOP - Oil & Gas
XLV - Health Care
XLI - Industrial
BJK - Gaming
XLP - Consumer Staples
VIX What is everyone's favorite instrument for playing the vix?
SPY: S&P 500 ended Nov. on a high, jumping above its 200-day
MA for the first time in 7-months
An important change after months. On the white board in my
office there is one statement: "Be flexible when markets
This ended up being a monster call for me and possibly was
the bottom longer term for AGG. Grateful it has worked out. Will
continue to hold ..
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