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$SPX Here is a post

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 11th of Jun 2021 at 06:41 am

$SPX Here is a post from my trading journal as I prepare for my day/coming week(s). Thanks to Matt/Steve, all of the great posters here for their contributions, I appreciate you:

..time to consider where we are in the longer term view. March was an incredible dip buy and I had used seasonality to as a probability for that. The risk/reward was certainly much better for a swing for some months at that point. The market has been mechanical most of the year. June has a period now, it appears based on the last 20 years that experiences a few bad weeks it looks like around mid June until the end of June. So I've been preparing for that now as we rally here. 4,250 is resistance and another level measured at 4,270 if we would get there short term. 

We are also in the 60s on the long term RSI, so starting to get a bit hot in the short term. I'm not calling for a crash, though corrections are usually met with frustration as price action has taught the mind otherwise. If you are buying when the risk/reward is in your favor, it makes it harder to have that happen to you. Buying up here is much higher risk relatively. Pros are doing the opposite, including this one.

ARKK, SHOP, SPOT  I posted

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 11th of Jun 2021 at 06:22 am

ARKK, SHOP, SPOT  I posted the top 10 of the fund prior when I was making a March dip purchase and I bought a little more when it went a bit below the 100 area. From the newsletter, Shopify and Spotify are both in the top 10. One thing I noticed is that a lot of the stocks had similar looks when the market went out of these, now the money has rotated back in..

ROKU also reclaimed its 50 day yesterday, also top 10, chart attached. I like the setups Steve gave as the chart patterns are attractive for trades. Lastly EXAS above the 50 as well now also inside the fund. 

These are some of the leading growth companies in the world. Short term rotations don't mean a lot for the longer term value. I think the fund has a double to triple in it in a 5 year period. It is a little above 2% of our household assets, so given that I'm not concerned about checking it frequently. Part of my strategy is to take some of my trading gains and use it to fund this. This creates what I call, "a paid for position". I accumulate ARKK during downturns, nice dips. This is part of that strategy, I just like owning it rather than trading in these as I have others names that I trade more regularly in. Sharing here and hoping that some of this helps or something can be taken away that enables someone to consider their own personal strategy/plan. All the best in whatever your strategies and plans are. Thanks for the posts here, I do read them just don't always comment. Have a great weekend

PRHSX (T Rowe Health Sciences

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 11th of Jun 2021 at 05:49 am

PRHSX (T Rowe Health Sciences Fund) I noted that I was buying this during the March market dip, already back to the highs. It has been a big winner for me over the years. Chart and top 10 holdings attached. 

THBR Business Combination approved. Will

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 10th of Jun 2021 at 09:12 pm

THBR Business Combination approved. Will begin trading as INDI tomorrow. Just checked my account and the symbol change is already showing up. I own warrants. The stock rose in the after hours session to $11.30: 

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210610005944/en/indie-Semiconductor-and-Thunder-Bridge-Acquisition-II-Ltd.-Announce-Closing-of-Business-Combination/?feedref=JjAwJuNHiystnCoBq_hl-YKT6SDyMw5Lye4ovXwHmkqD8R-QU5o2AvY8bhI9uvWSD8DYIYv4TIC1g1u0AKcacnnViVjtb72bOP4-4nHK5idAXrgr_e1ZUbxvK6BY66Xm

VGAC also approved their business combination with 23 and Me and it will begin trading as ME on June 17th. A Virgin Group company (Richard Branson):

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/virgin-groups-vg-acquisition-corp-shareholders-approve-business-combination-with-23andme-inc-301310472.html

booyah, just getting started...longer term its a monster winner. David Aldrich who built Skyworks is involved here with the current CEO on the team. Great thing about Indie Semiconductor "INDI", which will be the new symbol is that they win no matter which of the car makers are doing business with them..and it gets more profitable the more advanced technology gets in general, the more they sell per car. Also, the barrier to entry in this space is very difficult..it was over a decade to be in this position, great *economic moat around the company here now 

*The term economic moat, popularized by Warren Buffett, refers to a business' ability to maintain competitive advantages over its competitors in order to protect its long-term profits and market share from competing firms.

New article here from market realist today: https://marketrealist.com/p/indie-semiconductor-stock-forecast-after-thbr-merger/

Gold Price, Chris is a

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 9th of Jun 2021 at 12:36 pm

Gold Price, Chris is a pretty good trader, his current take ..David is an excellent interviewer with Kitco, I think one of the best in the business...video is there when you click the link. Good info on where he thinks we are in the cycle as well, which is beginning to align with the seasonality being discussed on the site here recently for June..we shall see.

$2,700 GOLD PRICE ‘COULD BE REACHED IN 1 TO 2 YEARS’ AT THE EARLIEST – CHRIS VERMEULEN ON KITCO NEWS:

https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/2700-gold-price-could-be-reached-in-1-to-2-years-at-the-earliest-chris-vermeulen-on-kitco-news/

ARKK has quietly moved back

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 9th of Jun 2021 at 11:09 am

ARKK has quietly moved back up to the 50 day. A break above would be continually bullish. Nice move so far from that $97-100 support and above the March dip at $106s as well. Cathie stated a triple for her fund over the next five years. I believe she can do it given her methodology and how they buy/sell. A little over 2% of our household assets in this fund currently. We always buy on the big moves down. Got some at $111 and some a bit below $100 recently. 

You can buy and sell shares of warrants just as you do stock. 

Best to understand the instruments, read, watch a video on them, etc:

https://www.investopedia.com/trading/warrants-risky-but-high-return-investment-tool/

Video, warrants explained for beginners, Patrick does a pretty good job usually:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTsMD12Cevc

Warren Buffet and others have used warrants in their strategies for years now to make outsized gains on what would normally be pretty average participation. Super smart in using smaller amounts of capital as well as the leverage saves cash. Of course there are risks as always, but I like the instrument  a lot on the positions I'm using them on and I've considered the amount of capital I'm willing to risk before implementing my strategy. 

AMC  If you like a

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 9th of Jun 2021 at 08:10 am

AMC  If you like a deal, they offer $6.50 + tax movie tickets on Tuesdays at many theaters. They call it Discount Tuesdays. 

WOW that is amazing Matt.

Double Rainbow

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 9th of Jun 2021 at 07:56 am

WOW that is amazing Matt. Even the CEO has commented that they have been shined down upon. I guess God loves AMC and/or a good joke   

Steve, Great newsletter.  I've been watching

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 9th of Jun 2021 at 07:48 am

Steve, Great newsletter. 

I've been watching the divergence of the Transports as well from the Qs and also the general market. International continues to lead at the moment. 

THBR   For those following

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 9th of Jun 2021 at 07:41 am

THBR   For those following along, the merger vote is today at 11am. If you own it, you probably know that though or should. Will become Indie Semiconductor. Warrants are up from $1.50s to $2.50 in just the last weeks. Another situation I took advantage of when they took it down and doubled my position off the lows in warrants. Then I sold some on the huge rip into the $2.50 area. My core position is in wonderful shape now and I can hold it now as it is profit heavy. 

It will close, most of the votes are from institutional ownership. Stan Druckenmiller started a position recently and that made me feel amazing about my work. He's one of the best investors of our time. 

Thanks for the chart. This is exactly the type of situation I'm watching for longer term buying opportunity. I have no direct exposure to crypto at the moment, only the Coinbase that Cathie owns in ARKK, which is only 3.68% of the fund at last glance. And that fund exposure is only like 2% of our total assets. So it would be nice to grab some crypto on a market meltdown. It appears to be here to stay. I would probably look to put 1-1.5% of our assets in something like GBTC or GDLC (large cap crypto trust) if I got my price. Would be nice to see 20k, but the market will decide. I'm watching everyday. 

Years ago I was able to acquire muni bond assets for incredible prices with Meredith Whitney did the tour scaring everyone that massive bankruptcies were coming. I still have a lot of that exposure to this day and have just been compounding the interest. It takes patience, but these are the situations to pounce on. I've done that in oil multiple times and used leverage to achieve massive gains. One tip I'd give is that I use an amount dollar wise in allocation that you could care less if it is up or down during a given day. That way its easier to hang on. When you aren't checking in multiple times throughout the day, it may be the right amount. Its very personal as always. Thanks everyone

I posted this some months back, though its worth a repost. Again, going back to what I own when the market is foolish. Also note, I'm buying warrants, not the stock itself, so my strategy is a little different than just owning shares. One must understand the risks/rewards of any plan. Good luck on your personal plans and decisions:

$DGNR 

Advent International is the majority shareholder: 

About Advent International

Founded in 1984, Advent International is one of the largest and most experienced global private equity investors. The firm has invested in over 350 private equity transactions in 41 countries, and as of September 30, 2020, had $66.2 billion in assets under management. With 15 offices in 12 countries, Advent has established a globally integrated team of over 200 investment professionals across North America, Europe, Latin America and Asia. The firm focuses on investments in five core sectors, including business and financial services; health care; industrial; retail, consumer and leisure; and technology. After 35 years dedicated to international investing, Advent remains committed to partnering with management teams to deliver sustained revenue and earnings growth for its portfolio companies.

For more information, visit:

Website: www.adventinternational.com

Here is the business combination release information: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210203005331/en/CCC-Information-Services-Inc.-and-Dragoneer-Growth-Opportunities-Corp.-Announce-Business-Combination-Creating-Publicly-Listed-Leader-Accelerating-the-Digital-Transformation-of-the-PC-Insurance-Economy

WPF is Bill Foley's company, they are merging with Alight who provides benefit solutions. They just acquired the Thrift Savings Plan (huge military contract) late last year.  He built the largest title insurance company in the world from $3 million at its start to over $13 billion. He brought the Las Vegas Knights Hockey team to Vegas. He is an incredible leader and businessman. Click on the about on WPF's page and read about Bill. I doubled my position in warrants when they took them down to the $1.50s area the one day. They are already back to $2+. The deal will happen. 

WPF's site: https://www.foleytrasimene.com/

Alight's site: https://alight.com/

*Spacs have been on fire the last weeks. I have 7 positions total and loaded the mess out of them when they all got taken down. All warrants. I've seen massive moves, 50-100% on average in them in that period of time. One thing I like to do is start with a reasonable size, then if the market does something ridiculous or they manipulate it, I double or triple my stake to get to the allocation dollar wise I'm targeting. Two months is nothing when I can achieve an amazing risk/reward and make my year after they load and finally run them higher. Whenever crazy things happen, I always go back to what I own and if anything has changed. If it hasn't, then I'm in a position to invest with much less risk. As I thought about these warrants, they were willing to give me the equivalent of a 5 year option contract in the $1s. That is hilariously cheap. It shouldn't even be possible. 

I used to make the mistake of looking for new ideas when things like this happened. Now I dig deeper and stick with what I'm doing and usually add if the fundamentals are with me. Same deal with TTCF, there was no reason for that stock to go back to $16, I just said thanks, loaded it and its back to $23 now. Barring a market event, my guess is that it challenges new highs at some point. I know everyone's strategy is different, but hope what I share helps someone that wants to grow their wealth and maybe can take some things and incorporate it into their own style/plan. I read perspectives here and its what the community is all about. 

Whenever you see that type of price decline and massive jobs are lost, it is a buy. The money gets made putting everyone back to work so to speak. Relatively speaking we are now at the other end of the risk/reward structure for the next few years. Meaning, it is likely to go higher unless we have another situation that nobody can plan for. This is why having a plan in place whether you are trading or investing is so important. 

I personally like to trim some things that I bought in the crash periods whenever we have the euphoria periods and are at new highs. I will be looking at doing so if the market breaks out and runs up near the measured target areas. I use that cash for when we get nice corrections and/or crashes whenever they happen in different sectors or the markets in general. There are times when I will also take part of the profits and invest it in a long term growth story that I can hang onto. Again, I'm looking for healthy discounts when I enter. It takes patience, just have to take what they give, whenever they give it. I wrote this to benefit others, though also as a journal entry to encourage myself to stay with my plan which has worked for decades. 

I've been investing a long time and I've never been more disgusted with the state of the market. Matt's comment was spot on "casino"

Matt, thanks for the great

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 3rd of Jun 2021 at 07:42 am

Matt, thanks for the great coverage. Really liked the chart with the pivot points. 

No doubt. Look at GME

AMC follow up

Posted by fundamentalvalues on 28th of May 2021 at 10:02 am

No doubt. Look at GME too, trading at $256   

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