Yes, the fiscal recklessness of the US government is truly staggering, particularly in what is a peacetime scenario and not even in a recession... yet

If you look at your chart you will see that the big selloff/recessions. historically only start once the curve uninverts, ie goes above zero. BTW this is now on for becoming the longest inversion in history. as you can see below it inverted on July 7th 2022 to now, thats 647 days and will likely breech 700? 

Hi Matt, you mentioned a UGL 130 kiss system on the Monday 8th night newsletter, i cannot find it among the kiss systems

Is the system about to have its first losing year?

5th entry anyone

Dear Matt,

Do you ever put on stops after you enter the trade after a signal, just in case we ever have another flash crash 

Dear Marketguy,

You got me thinking with this one and i decided to play around with the settings. You appear to be using a 90 setting on the weekly aroon. I changed it to 100 and it appears to take a lot of the whipsaws out and has not broken through the zero line as of yet

This is going to take a while. I study gold more than any other commodity or index. I made a lot of money on the run up from Oct 08 to Feb 09. I then got chined severely by calling the breakout of the triangle on 2nd Sept 09 wrong, as opposed to Matt Frailey, who called it absolutely right.

The way i see Gold, is that, we have made "the high" or certainly a high that may not be bettered for a couple of yrs. There has been a major non confirmation between the metal and the stocks, that is the metal made a new all time high on the 3rd of Dec 09 that bettered the previous ATH on 17th Mar 08, this was not confirmed by the HUI. I believe gold is carving out a long term EW flat correction, where wave 5 topped in Mar 08 and wave A bottomed in oct 08, followed by wave B topping in Dec 09. Wave C should finish below wave B, possibly in the 62% retracement zone of circa $627, very similar to the corrective flat that occured in the dow industrials after the Jan 5th wave 2000 top, into wave A bottom in Oct 2002, folowed by wave B top in Oct 2007, to wave C bottom in Mar 2009 

In the meantime, look at the pattern in Gold that occured from the 17th mar 08 top to the lower high on 15th Jul 08 and compare it to what is tracing out right now, as well as the pattern the lower high is a 76.4 fib retrace from the top. I have a line that is touching on the 15th jan 09, 8th jul 09, 17th Aug 09, and the 5th Feb 2010. Gold is almost touching it. Judging by the indicators I think we stand a good chance of bouncing of that line and ralling up to retrace hopefully 76.4 from the ATH circa 1184.

There is so much more analysis I have put into this, but it would take to long to type, what i have covered here are the broad brush strokes and it is what i am patiently waiting for. I would love to test my theory by going long gold if it kisses my line, at roughly 1080 tomorrow but i am away sking and racing cars for the next 10 days and have lost too much money before while trying to trade on holiday.        

I think we could get a bounce in gold over the next couple of weeks and should that happen i will be looking to go heavily short for maybe 5-6 months

I'm based in Belfast and trade gold like you appear to do

Dear Saturn6,

Are you UK based?, It's just that your charts look like the IT Finance charts provided by the UK spreadbetting company IG markets and the time in the right hand corner of your computer screen is usually very close to mine which is UK time.  

Dear Matt,

Please excuse my ignorance but would you please explain the difference between a swing trade and a normal one.

Thanks

Don 3247

Matt,

How do you measure the cup and handle suggested peak of 1410 on the SPX

Matt, do you think there is a possiblity that the previous rising bearish wedge on the major indiceses has a chance of playing out