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You have a great weekend as well Steve. Thanks for all the time and hard work ðŸ™

So what kind of data are we looking at to predict that we are going to drop 1000 points....is there is any NHNL divergence like last year, any wide ribbons etc ? I am not saying its not going to happen but it is definitely not a slam dunk. Do you have the guts to sell all your portfolio and go short and not cover until 1000 points down  or even 600 points down ? I definitely dont see myself doing that. I see some perma bears calling for 1800 SPX. just like kayKim permabull calling for SPX 22000 by 2030. 

Anyways not going to talk further on this. My time is way more valuable than enter into debates on forums

I am planning to buy QQQ 310P for Aug 26

Yes I agree, Comments like that 900-1000 point drops are distracting and quite honestly unnecessary. Who cares if that happens or not ? The best profits in investing are made when we dodge a major downturn like last 10 months. Any "predictions" from here have to be objective. Last year, Matt and Steve laid out amazing grounds like NAHL / wide ribbons on monthly etc. Not even one analyst out there noted these. But now we dont have any objective signs like that to be able to predict. 

Volatility Index ($VIX) Below 20 The

Posted by arun on 12th of Aug 2022 at 04:20 pm

Volatility Index ($VIX) Below 20

The VIX closed at 19.74 on Wednesday, which was the first time we've seen the VIX below 20 on a close since April 4th, and only the 7th time since the initial selling episode in the first half of January. Yesterday, the VIX jumped right back up above 20, but today we're looking to close even lower than we did on Wednesday. In a nutshell, fear continues to evaporate and that is really bad news for the bears.

In all of my research, I've found that the truly important VIX level is 16-17. Once the VIX hit this level - even in the worst secular bear markets - we never ventured back to new lows. In other words, if the VIX moves down to 16 and we subsequently see the S&P 500 move to a low beneath the June low, it would mark the very first time in history (at least since 1950) that the VIX had dropped to 16, and then a bear market continued.

Keep that number in mind.

August Max Pain

We'll be doing a lot of calculations this weekend and trust me - you are going to want to see them. There will be an inordinate amount of net in-the-money call premium at today's close.....and with just one week to go before August monthly options expiration. I did a calculation on the SPY (ETF that tracks the S&P 500). Here's a chart of the SPY with the max pain level featured with a horizontal line just below 400

Currently, there is $1.9 BILLION in net in-the-money call premium and this is JUST ON THE SPY. Imagine the QQQ and all the growth-oriented NASDAQ stocks. Any bad news at all and we could see a significant selloff next week. I'm not banking on it, but we MUST be aware of it. This is no time to be a hero and be all in with something like the QLD.

We'll have LOTS of max pain work done over the weekend and we'll share our work with you. Be very careful into next week.

- Tom Bowley



I got burnt too. But losses are part of life. Move on to next cut your losses early. I also violated the rule Steve posted. I pressed shorts . Its not easy to be a rapid trader. Never go all in  in any trade. risk 2-5% max per trade. 

TSLA still strong working out nicely

Posted by arun on 12th of Aug 2022 at 02:50 pm

TSLA still strong

working out nicely

moved out of the triangle

TSLAhttps://schrts.co/xQxPMzWg 

Posted by arun on 12th of Aug 2022 at 12:29 pm

moved out of the triangle

sold mine at resistance

TSLAhttps://schrts.co/xQxPMzWg 

Posted by arun on 12th of Aug 2022 at 11:26 am

sold mine at resistance

TSLA https://schrts.co/xQxPMzWg 

Posted by arun on 12th of Aug 2022 at 11:08 am

wow perfect timing lol

Damn I guess i should sell my core holdings in TSLA

Next week is OPEX. High

SPX 30

Posted by arun on 11th of Aug 2022 at 06:24 pm

Next week is OPEX. High chance of sell off and bears will come out partying that the top is in.

Hanging on by a thread https://schrts.co/djRHDPcf 

Posted by arun on 11th of Aug 2022 at 06:21 pm

Hanging on by a thread

https://schrts.co/djRHDPcf 

TSLA puts working well

Posted by arun on 11th of Aug 2022 at 11:17 am

TSLA puts working well

wow

IF this remains in primary roadmap - next wave down ...

Posted by arun on 11th of Aug 2022 at 11:11 am

wow

QQQ H & S intraday

Posted by arun on 11th of Aug 2022 at 11:04 am

QQQ H & S intraday 5 min

VERV was an absolute winner.

Posted by arun on 11th of Aug 2022 at 10:39 am

VERV was an absolute winner. amazing move

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