I asked Brave's AI about copper shortages, as I've seen
something about that recently. Some of you probably follow this
closely and are already aware, but since I didn't know, I decided
to AI about supply predictions for the next 2-3 years. Goldman also
has an article on copper prices.
(Brave AI)
Experts predict a structural copper shortage is imminent,
with market deficits expected to emerge as early as
2026.
S&P Globalwarns that the global copper supply
gap is widening, with a
"substantial shortfall"projected to reach
10 million metric tons by 2040, driven by surging
demand from electrification, AI, data centers, and defense
spending. Even with recycled copper doubling to 10 million mt
by 2040, supply will fall short.
J.P. Morganforecasts a
160,000-ton refined copper deficit in 2026,
marking a structural shift from past surpluses. The
International Copper Study Group (ICSG) confirms this turning
point, projecting a
150,000-ton deficit in 2026—the first since years
of modest surpluses.
BloombergNEFand other analysts note that
copper demand for the energy transition could triple by
2045, and without new mines or gains in recycling, the
deficit could reach 19 million tonnes by
2050.
Supply constraints are already visible:
disruptions in Chile, Indonesia, and Peru, slow
permitting, and a weak pipeline of new mines are tightening the
market. The average
17-year lead time from discovery to
productionlimits the ability to respond quickly to demand
spikes.
While some analysts expect
prices to peak in 2026before declining slightly in
2027 (per Goldman Sachs), the consensus remains
bullish—with
J.P. Morgan projecting $11,000/mt, Citi $12,000/mt, and
some analysts forecasting $15,000/mt—highlighting the
severity of the structural imbalance.
In short,
yes—experts are warning of a real, structural copper
shortage beginning in the next two to three years, driven
by long-term demand growth outpacing supply expansion.
FCX looks interesting here. There was no MACD divergence
on the high, and the pullback is on lighter volume and looks
corrective. The MA's are still all pointed up.
Very cool - so when the top 4 indicators are oversold, go long -
based on what trigger? Above that day's high? Certainly makes for a
clear stop. When do you take profits?
CQQQ has been a good trade, I got out of 1/2 in the mid 57's.
Has a sort of cup and handle, or inv. head & shoulders look.
But are those gaps going to be magnets now that price isn't too far
above? I suppose it could fill both of them and still have a valid
inv. h & s pattern, given the left shoulder's price zone.
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I'm in at 10.
VG nice chart!
Posted by frtaylor on 9th of Feb 2026 at 04:00 pm
I'm in at 10.
Future copper shortages
Posted by frtaylor on 9th of Feb 2026 at 03:26 pm
I asked Brave's AI about copper shortages, as I've seen something about that recently. Some of you probably follow this closely and are already aware, but since I didn't know, I decided to AI about supply predictions for the next 2-3 years. Goldman also has an article on copper prices.
Goldman Article
(Brave AI)
Experts predict a structural copper shortage is imminent, with market deficits expected to emerge as early as 2026.
S&P Globalwarns that the global copper supply gap is widening, with a "substantial shortfall"projected to reach 10 million metric tons by 2040, driven by surging demand from electrification, AI, data centers, and defense spending. Even with recycled copper doubling to 10 million mt by 2040, supply will fall short.
J.P. Morganforecasts a 160,000-ton refined copper deficit in 2026, marking a structural shift from past surpluses. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) confirms this turning point, projecting a 150,000-ton deficit in 2026—the first since years of modest surpluses.
BloombergNEFand other analysts note that copper demand for the energy transition could triple by 2045, and without new mines or gains in recycling, the deficit could reach 19 million tonnes by 2050.
Supply constraints are already visible: disruptions in Chile, Indonesia, and Peru, slow permitting, and a weak pipeline of new mines are tightening the market. The average 17-year lead time from discovery to productionlimits the ability to respond quickly to demand spikes.
While some analysts expect prices to peak in 2026before declining slightly in 2027 (per Goldman Sachs), the consensus remains bullish—with J.P. Morgan projecting $11,000/mt, Citi $12,000/mt, and some analysts forecasting $15,000/mt—highlighting the severity of the structural imbalance.
In short, yes—experts are warning of a real, structural copper shortage beginning in the next two to three years, driven by long-term demand growth outpacing supply expansion.
FCX looks interesting here. There
Posted by frtaylor on 9th of Feb 2026 at 03:12 pm
FCX looks interesting here. There was no MACD divergence on the high, and the pullback is on lighter volume and looks corrective. The MA's are still all pointed up.
Nope, not playing out.
GOOGL 30 min - another take on the bear flag
Posted by frtaylor on 6th of Feb 2026 at 03:55 pm
Nope, not playing out.
It's sitting on the 20dma
GOOGL 30 min - another take on the bear flag
Posted by frtaylor on 6th of Feb 2026 at 02:53 pm
It's sitting on the 20dma on the daily, so not sure if this flag will play out.
GOOGL 30 min - another
Posted by frtaylor on 6th of Feb 2026 at 02:39 pm
GOOGL 30 min - another take on the bear flag
EdZ, I sent you a
QQQ IWM, GDX - These seem to work more often ...
Posted by frtaylor on 6th of Feb 2026 at 12:35 pm
EdZ, I sent you a question on this chart setup.
GOOGL 15min - bear flag
GOOGL comments
Posted by frtaylor on 6th of Feb 2026 at 11:19 am
GOOGL 15min - bear flag
NFLX, 60min chart - maybe
Posted by frtaylor on 6th of Feb 2026 at 11:06 am
NFLX, 60min chart - maybe an oversold bounce in the works?
Short is working so far.
GOOGL comments
Posted by frtaylor on 6th of Feb 2026 at 10:52 am
Short is working so far.
I did. Small position.
GOOGL comments
Posted by frtaylor on 5th of Feb 2026 at 04:41 pm
I did. Small position.
AMZN getting blown out of
Posted by frtaylor on 5th of Feb 2026 at 04:05 pm
AMZN getting blown out of the water in after hrs. Almost to the gap at 197.xx
Labeling suggests downside break too
XLK, triangle on 15 min chart. Given that the gap ...
Posted by frtaylor on 5th of Feb 2026 at 02:55 pm
Labeling suggests downside break too -
XLK, triangle on 15 min
Posted by frtaylor on 5th of Feb 2026 at 02:46 pm
XLK, triangle on 15 min chart. Given that the gap and the 200dma are below, I wonder if it will break to the downside.
I did buy a small
XHB chart discussion and IYR looks good
Posted by frtaylor on 4th of Feb 2026 at 03:37 pm
I did buy a small position on the pullback, thx!
This has been working well,
AVD -- AG chemicals company
Posted by frtaylor on 4th of Feb 2026 at 10:23 am
This has been working well, thanks for the idea.
True! And the pattern hasn't
NVDA still following the pattern.
Posted by frtaylor on 4th of Feb 2026 at 10:21 am
True! And the pattern hasn't played out yet, so it well may not.
NVDA still following the pattern.
Posted by frtaylor on 4th of Feb 2026 at 10:15 am
NVDA still following the pattern.
Very cool - so when
QQQ IWM, GDX - These seem to work more often ...
Posted by frtaylor on 3rd of Feb 2026 at 04:40 pm
Very cool - so when the top 4 indicators are oversold, go long - based on what trigger? Above that day's high? Certainly makes for a clear stop. When do you take profits?
CQQQ has been a good
Posted by frtaylor on 2nd of Feb 2026 at 03:33 pm
CQQQ has been a good trade, I got out of 1/2 in the mid 57's. Has a sort of cup and handle, or inv. head & shoulders look. But are those gaps going to be magnets now that price isn't too far above? I suppose it could fill both of them and still have a valid inv. h & s pattern, given the left shoulder's price zone.