3309 Drysdale Ct
Edwardsville, IL 62025
As you all know the trading day following a big up day is
usually down. Some statistics for your reference: Over the last 25
years, 87% probability of today being a down close versus
yesterday’s close on SPX. This is also true of many markets and
stocks: TSLA 70% probability of a down day, today.
$3.5B MOC to sell side - ouch
Matt, Hope you had a good weekend. Would you please add
VTI and BSV to the KISS STS tables?
NVDA just hit the daily 9EMA for the first time since reporting
Chinese arent ready militarily to invade - will take a few more
years of preparation, at least. Best to keep an eye on TSM as an
Ronald Reagan: Government's view of the economy could be summed
up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving,
regulate it. And if it Stops Moving, Subsidize it.
MOC $180M to sell side is tiny - no sellers to speak of
Matt, Paying attention to what you said about the fish and the
fisherman, think QQQ has trouble getting through 334.43? reaction
in other direction, or stick w the trend day? - Thanks, Fish
Real Simple: in advanced options for Windows Update, just turn
off "restart" and/or "pause" updates for up to 35 days, and just
set a reminder on your calendar to re-pause every ~30
I sold mine, too, then when I realized my mistake, just bought
it back slightly higher. who knows, might make a run to that
weekly gap around $115.
as to the volatility today, wasnt it charlie sheen who
exclaimed: "It's F-ing beautiful!" in Platoon? great day
trading today :)
I caught the pullback, too +$8k on long QQQ trade :)
Squeeze big time - think of all those massive short positions
waiting for the economy to soften harder and EPS estimates to
ratchet down faster. They may prove right, but they are too
I believe it was the fastest rate hike by FED in history,
certainly fastest in modern era. Your suggestion that they raise
even faster in a bigger way would have been too much of a shock to
the system, in FED's view, although Gundlach and others
wanted faster than they did - that is all supposition at this
point, anyway - now it's history.
Fed Funds now higher than inflation - the Fed's goal has now
been achieved - big milestone. If inflation stays level, or
declines, that means the end of rate hikes, and pause is set in
as a follow up to purchasing the call spread, if you think the
measured move is all that there will be, you could also consider
buying a butterfly, where the short call strikes are at the
measured move. this would be cheaper than buying a call
spread, but also provides less upside.
Buy a call spread with time frame appropriate to your view. To
partially finance your call spread, you could consider shorting
puts with less than one week to expiry, at a strike you dont
believe will be hit - hard to do considering potential downside
volatility from debt ceiling, or other factors.
Steve, no one expects you to pick market direction. We all know
that there are three possible scenarios, on a daily basis, up,
down, or sideways, with probabilities associated with each of those
scenarios. Your comments in the Thursday newsletter were spot on.
For the newer members, they may need some handholding, where you
chime in mid morning that it is a trend day, where pullbacks can be
bought, for instance, that beautiful bull flag pull back to 4130.
Don’t be mistaken: we appreciate you :)
For starters, I have the upmost respect for you, Steve and Matt.
However, I just re-listened to Steve’s opening comments from the
Thursday newsletter he basically says could be a move up above 4100
on the ES, could be a move down below 4060 on the ES , or could be
range bound. So, not as definitive a viewpoint for newer
members trying to discern what you guys are saying, as you may
believe. Of course for long-term members, able to discern what
Steve said with the strong move over 4100, it became clear that it
was a trend day up where that first major pullback could be
STNE - Brazil payment processor w a lot of loans gone bad.
Warren Buffet owns this one - probably from a lot lower.
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