Carlyle Group's Curry talking $55, $50, even $40 WTI. China not
likely buying US Oil and agricultural products, but they will be
buying Brazilian commodities (i.e. Petrobas PBR).
Applovin -12%: Muddy Waters Issues Short Report On Company
2/26/25: Fuzzy Panda Research and Culper Research released
reports alleging fraudulent practices in AppLovin's AI-driven AXON
advertising platform. Claims included deceptive advertising
tactics, data misuse, and violations of app store
regulations.
2/27/25:The Bear Cave, another short-seller, published a
critical report on AppLovin, highlighting similar concerns about
the company's ad-tech practices.
Steve, recognizing that 6 occurrences is not statistically
significant in any case, it would be v interesting to know how many
occurred w a declining 200SMA.
something to keep your eye on for credit stress...
HYG -> 1.81M options traded today, most
ever in a single day (Jun 13th 2022 had previous record with
1.78M). Total put volume was 1.64M which is also a record (1.61M
HYG puts traded on Jun 13th 2022). By comparison, HYG was -3.3% on
Jun 13th 2022 and only -56bps today
The VIX tagged 30 yesterday and SPX 1 month correlation hit
highs last seen on Aug 5th 2024, the last tradable bottom post a
~9% pullback. The S&P RSI officially reached “oversold”
conditions, as it did on August 5th 2024. Most CTA selling is
behind us, gamma is deeply negative (so volatility is exacerbated
in both directions) and liquidity remains poor. These
conditions likely set us up for a quick and perhaps violent bounce
today, though not a lasting rally. SpotGamma points out that
massive put positions don’t expire for another week (3/21 and
3/31), no trade deals have been signed and no continuing resolution
to avert shutdown has cleared yet either. “What sets up the
fat long entry pitch is an SPX 5,5xx handle heading into
end-of-month expirations. Those expirations would serve to
clear huge put positions, which could coincide with some positive
tariff developments on April 2nd”, SpotGamma says.
CTA selling has been a large contributing factor to downside
volatility, according to GS they’ve sold $39B worth of stocks over
the past 5 sessions. Such large-scale selling only happened
15 times before, mostly in 2018, 2020 and 3 times in 2023 according
to GS. GS calculates CTAs are actually short $10B of US
equities, with $17B left for sale this week. The gamma
environment has also been exacerbating volatility, we’re in a
deeply negative gamma regime…this, however, works both ways.
All this mechanical selling has hit an illiquid market,
E-mini top of book is right around multi-year lows…but like gamma,
this works both ways. Combined with the correlation spike,
and “oversold” condition, we likely have enough for a bounce
today…but we’ll need more for a lasting bottom.
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Posted by te22 on 11th of Apr 2025 at 03:39 pm
Posted by te22 on 11th of Apr 2025 at 08:39 am
Longer term perspective
Posted by te22 on 9th of Apr 2025 at 12:42 pm
Longer term perspective
Matt, a lot of those
SPY and MES bear long systems still looking to trigger
Posted by te22 on 7th of Apr 2025 at 04:27 pm
Matt, a lot of those Bear Long trades in 2022. Could you please provide the statistics, even if not up to date? thank you
must be during cash market.
In European Trading (I am in Germany) S&P fell to ...
Posted by te22 on 7th of Apr 2025 at 08:41 am
must be during cash market. could echo the Aug 5, 2024 move: overnight high in VIX peaked at 8:30am.
Carlyle Group's Curry talking $55,
After $BPENER last night started slowly buying CVX 139 COP ...
Posted by te22 on 7th of Apr 2025 at 08:39 am
Carlyle Group's Curry talking $55, $50, even $40 WTI. China not likely buying US Oil and agricultural products, but they will be buying Brazilian commodities (i.e. Petrobas PBR).
Can a Morningstar pattern immediately
Quite a doji today on SPY daily
Posted by te22 on 27th of Mar 2025 at 07:29 pm
Can a Morningstar pattern immediately follow an Evening star pattern? In other words, reasonable to buy the upside break of the top of the doji?
Nice. Booked vacation size $
4/17 ES Levels June Contract (ESM25)
Posted by te22 on 27th of Mar 2025 at 03:40 pm
Nice. Booked vacation size $ off that call, Steve. Thanks!
Applovin -12%: Muddy Waters Issues
Posted by te22 on 27th of Mar 2025 at 02:48 pm
Applovin -12%: Muddy Waters Issues Short Report On Company
2/26/25: Fuzzy Panda Research and Culper Research released reports alleging fraudulent practices in AppLovin's AI-driven AXON advertising platform. Claims included deceptive advertising tactics, data misuse, and violations of app store regulations.
2/27/25:The Bear Cave, another short-seller, published a critical report on AppLovin, highlighting similar concerns about the company's ad-tech practices.
Quarter Rebalance
Posted by te22 on 27th of Mar 2025 at 02:41 pm
AVWAPs working effectively
Posted by te22 on 27th of Mar 2025 at 01:43 pm
AVWAPs working effectively
Steve, recognizing that 6 occurrences
Quick Stat TT3
Posted by te22 on 27th of Mar 2025 at 01:37 pm
Steve, recognizing that 6 occurrences is not statistically significant in any case, it would be v interesting to know how many occurred w a declining 200SMA.
For those who have never Grokked the MACD Crossover, and ...
Posted by te22 on 22nd of Mar 2025 at 07:42 pm
NVDA presentation (Huang) has begun - leather coat is intact ...
Posted by te22 on 18th of Mar 2025 at 05:20 pm
Posted by te22 on 14th of Mar 2025 at 08:42 am
something to keep your eye
Posted by te22 on 13th of Mar 2025 at 04:49 pm
something to keep your eye on for credit stress...
HYG -> 1.81M options traded today, most ever in a single day (Jun 13th 2022 had previous record with 1.78M). Total put volume was 1.64M which is also a record (1.61M HYG puts traded on Jun 13th 2022). By comparison, HYG was -3.3% on Jun 13th 2022 and only -56bps today
Putin: truce should lead to
Posted by te22 on 13th of Mar 2025 at 11:48 am
Putin: truce should lead to long term peace
ODTE Put $2.6B put seller
Posted by te22 on 13th of Mar 2025 at 11:47 am
ODTE Put $2.6B put seller a few minutes ago
Some Downside Targets
Posted by te22 on 11th of Mar 2025 at 06:20 pm
Some Downside Targets
OPCo's Villano (AM Update): The VIX
Posted by te22 on 11th of Mar 2025 at 12:46 pm
OPCo's Villano (AM Update):
The VIX tagged 30 yesterday and SPX 1 month correlation hit highs last seen on Aug 5th 2024, the last tradable bottom post a ~9% pullback. The S&P RSI officially reached “oversold” conditions, as it did on August 5th 2024. Most CTA selling is behind us, gamma is deeply negative (so volatility is exacerbated in both directions) and liquidity remains poor. These conditions likely set us up for a quick and perhaps violent bounce today, though not a lasting rally. SpotGamma points out that massive put positions don’t expire for another week (3/21 and 3/31), no trade deals have been signed and no continuing resolution to avert shutdown has cleared yet either. “What sets up the fat long entry pitch is an SPX 5,5xx handle heading into end-of-month expirations. Those expirations would serve to clear huge put positions, which could coincide with some positive tariff developments on April 2nd”, SpotGamma says.
CTA selling has been a large contributing factor to downside volatility, according to GS they’ve sold $39B worth of stocks over the past 5 sessions. Such large-scale selling only happened 15 times before, mostly in 2018, 2020 and 3 times in 2023 according to GS. GS calculates CTAs are actually short $10B of US equities, with $17B left for sale this week. The gamma environment has also been exacerbating volatility, we’re in a deeply negative gamma regime…this, however, works both ways. All this mechanical selling has hit an illiquid market, E-mini top of book is right around multi-year lows…but like gamma, this works both ways. Combined with the correlation spike, and “oversold” condition, we likely have enough for a bounce today…but we’ll need more for a lasting bottom.