Aloha Steve, are you still looking for a more material VIX spike, perhaps a VIX closure >upper BB, in the near term, w potential long opportunities after it begins to retreat, or better yet, buy signal after it closes back within?  As we all know, markets tend not to bottom on Fridays, but with congress in action over the weekend, perhaps there is the catalyst of govt reopening...any way, your view would be appreciated. Mahalo

Lol, these days, it appears themes are what people buy. Stocks of companies  w paltry/no revenues and no moat is the way to go!

DELL - analyst day tmw. long since Friday close.

NASDAQ - for those who may have missed his CNBC interview this morning, Paul Tudor Jones stated he thinks the composite possibly reminiscent of Oct 1999 - Nasdaq Comp rallied ~90% to peak in Mar 2000. If that rhyme (not repeat) comes to pass, his view is that one must own Crypto, Nasdaq, Gold into year end.

DHI KBH LEN PHM - cup n handles on all. clear buy points evident on the pop thru their downtrend lines. could be really nice LT plays w reduction in rates, and super dovish FOMC chair that will most definitely replace Powell. And, cheap. lot of nice ingredients for position plays.  W - trading tight. 3 yr base. levered play on housing. https://www.tradingview.com/x/CTtuICIv/

DE - checked through this list of Agriculture stocks, considering Trump Soybean Farmer $10B relief package. CTVA, NTR, CF, MOS, ADM, BG, DE, AGCO, TSN, ANDE, CALM, GRWG. the most interesting chart was DE. Would need follow through on volume to be anything but a dead cat bounce, however. 

Dan Niles (worked w him at LEH as semi-equip analyst during internet bubble) earlier posited on CNBC that NVDA gets a China deal to sell higher end Blackwell chips "any day now" (just invested in INTC, gaining favor w Trump). Figure stock could pop back towards $185 if that happens. Option idea: -1x165P +1x177.5C -1x185C, Oct 15 Expiry. about $0.75 to make $7.50, risk is getting put NVDA at price of $165.75 - size accordingly.

QBTS - I was looking at it as a possible short. Reckon it's in the process of an ABC pullback? Shortable on the B bounce? Thanks for your thoughts.

QBTS - Steve, your take on it would be appreciated. thanks

MP CRWV - Matt's Macro Vision playing out nicely w breakouts off those downtrend lines. Happily long 5% and 8% positions, respectively at present.

good call, steve

NBIS $17B contract. $7-8B increase in market cap post deal anncmt. Negative gross margins, so they lose more money now? BUT short interest 8.3% 15.6mm shares.

Matt, Your Matt's Macro plays have been great. Please correct me if I misunderstood, but it sounded like the only one you would consider for a new entry at present is GDXJ.  It would be helpful to many of us if you would please clarify, either in the Community, or on your next newsletter, which of these Matt's macro plays are worth considering for NEW entries in the near term: specific trigger, KISS entry, objective entry, etc. , thanks much: GLD, GDX, GDXJ, SLV, SIL, SILJ, PPLT, PALL, REMX, etc.

NVDA Earnings Pattern Recap

Over the last three earnings reports, NVDA has shown a very consistent setup: strong rally into the print, followed by a period of sideways consolidation, then significant volatility on earnings day.

• Aug ’24:Closed -6.5%after gapping down, with a 6.5% intraday range.

• Nov ’24:Closed +0.5%, modestly higher despite an 8.6% intraday range.

• Feb ’25:Closed -8.5%after a sharp gap down, with a 12.5% intraday range.

In two of the three cases (Aug & Feb), the stock finished well below the prior day’s close. The November report was the only exception, holding slightly positive despite high volatility.

Takeaway:NVDA has consistently run up and consolidated before earnings, but the actual report has often led to sharp downside reactions — making it a high-volatility event to manage around.

SPX tested 50% of last Fri Powell squeeze candle -- respecting that 50% of green candle

GDS is a Chinese AI play that could grow into a much bigger company. If USA is in the 2 ^ndinning of AI implementation, China is in pre-game warm up. GDS Holdings develops and operates large-scale data centers primarily in China, providing space, power, and connectivity for companies to store their digital data securely. Their facilities support cloud service providers, big internet companies, financial firms, telecoms, and multinational corporations. Similar to EQIX. 

• Key metrics (2025):  ~$1.5B revenue (ttm), ~$6.5B market cap, rapid global and domestic expansion, strong analyst “Buy” ratings, and ambitious capacity growth targets. investing+2

• Notable achievements:Plans to IPO international arm, REIT conversion for Chinese biz, and major analyst upgrades with optimistic price targets. quiverquant+1

• Moat:Customer stickiness through high switching costs, technical expertise, and robust expansion pipeline. stockanalysis+1

• Technically - ABC pullback on daily

UUUU - exploding on deal w Vulcan (not the Spock planet) - rare earths

CUPR and FLYE...take a look - crazy

HIMS FTC investigation

Scion UNH new 370k shares. Buffet also buys DHI NUE LEN