$INDU -  I like how

Posted by roger on 1st of Oct 2022 at 06:23 pm

$INDU -  I like how the 2020 plunge tagged the trend line to a "t".  Like a magnet.

adding price by volume to

SPX renko weekly charts

Posted by matt on 1st of Oct 2022 at 05:23 pm

adding price by volume to that weekly renko, you can see how we are in the smallest volume by price support area

SPX renko weekly charts

Posted by matt on 1st of Oct 2022 at 05:19 pm

$SPX - Chart Link not sure what looks the best, one is 30 points for each box size, the other is 50. But you can see next big supports clearly on both

$SPX - Chart Link

I lived thew 2000 to 2002 and 2008  didn't trade in the 70's  the Moon phase may be at work here especially last week.   

Guys for fun you can look at previous bear markets like 2008, or 2,000 to 2002, or maybe one of the 70s bear markets and try to compare and find some similar price action between them, however this is a different type of bear Market and I would focus on the wave structure and price Action Now versus worrying about comparisons to previous bear markets, this bear Market is its own animal.

And honestly guys, not to scare you but it would not surprise me if this bear market ends up being the worst bear Market than any of us have experienced in our lives, worse that 2008, in fact the bond action is almost worse now

Good exercise this weekend is

Posted by steve on 1st of Oct 2022 at 03:32 pm

Good exercise this weekend is to go back to the September 18th Weekend Newsletter and Review all those Sector Chart Setups and how they resolved. 

To help Stockchart hamsters 2008

Posted by petermusic on 1st of Oct 2022 at 02:53 pm

To help Stockchart hamsters 2008 compare 2022 SPX weekly

Correct...black swan type . Understand

SPX Current Views

Posted by steve on 1st of Oct 2022 at 02:40 pm

Correct...black swan type . Understand even if ED forms and rally follows that would be wave 4 then PLUNGE in Wave 5. So Monday we shall see what unfolds.  There is a cycle due and failed cycles lead to plunges (notice 3 weeks down and 1 week up bounces of late).  Let me repeat, best to respect the trend until evidence changes - remain flexible and monitor level to level. 

The analog would have a

SPX Current Views

Posted by roger on 1st of Oct 2022 at 02:31 pm

The analog would have a multiweek rally from here which would fail in a waterfall manner

Its an almost identical match.

I would make a chart of 2008 but Stockcharts took away the start\end date function in the period tab when they added  those other nonsensical  periods.  Seems like a regression not an improvement.

Steve, if price accelerates down

SPX Current Views

Posted by mirhamedali on 1st of Oct 2022 at 02:31 pm

Steve, if price accelerates down immediately on Monday then it becomes impulsive to the downside and the ED is off the table right? 

If it becomes impulsive then it may bust through all the divergences. That may trigger a waterfall decline. 

This could be a really nasty three of three of three down. 

Or.... This could only still just be a 1-2 which means even more bearish to the downside. Very interesting two weeks ahead of us. 

Jobs numbers on Friday could be fireworks if numbers are strong. Based on jobless clsikes they may be strong 

This is another awesome indicator

Rydex Bear Funds

Posted by mirhamedali on 1st of Oct 2022 at 02:25 pm

This is another awesome indicator Matt. Thanks so much. Adding to the toolbox. 

Same question as before to

Posted by watcdy on 1st of Oct 2022 at 01:28 pm

Same question as before to Matt or anyone. Have you checked your TStation charts ?
several indicators have been removed 

Chris Ciovaccio video is making

SPX Current Views

Posted by arun on 1st of Oct 2022 at 01:04 pm

Chris Ciovaccio video is making comparisons to 2008 water fall decline which echoes your concern of accelerated selling. 

SPX Current Views

Posted by steve on 1st of Oct 2022 at 12:52 pm

$SPX - Chart Link- note the prevailing channels 

$SPX - Chart Link

$SPX - Chart Link

In Thursday's newsletter and again on Friday, I stated that the SPX 3613 low was NOT the bottom of the current decline since it was formed with 3 small waves off the SPX 3736 bounce.  Late Friday, that 3613 level was decisively broken and this structure has yet to complete.  From here, you could see a direct acceleration down (more forced selling) if bulls fail to step in during the first trading day of the month.  IF bulls are able to bounce then will be watching for a potential ending diagonal to complete the wave down that began from SPX 4119 in early September but more selling after such a rally is expected.

Rydex Bear Funds

Posted by matt on 1st of Oct 2022 at 12:23 pm

$SPX - Chart Link- First off remember that data here is at least a week old, they don't share their Rydex bear stats in real time. Notice how all those other peaks in their bear funds occurred about 1 - 2 weeks AFTER the bottoms. Again in real time those peaks were at the bottoms but again it's offset like that because of the delay in reporting it. 

My observation here is that the bear funds as shown here have already spiked a lot, but remember this is showing data for at least a week ago or longer, and doesn't reflect the sell off rom last week where traders would have obviously piled more money into the bear funds, if you had current data it would likely be as high or higher than prior peaks. 

anyway wave counts on the market, we're waiting for this wave 3 to end, and we'll put in an eventual wave 4, which sad to say, won't be the bottom of this downtrend, as we'll still have wave 5 to go. However those reversion to mean systems should have an opportunity to get out on that wave 4 bounce

now....that's assuming nothing major breaks in the system as I discussed with bonds below, or Putin uses nukes etc

SPAB - Chart Link SPAB represents the TOTAL bond fund, it not only includes junk and investment grade, but it also includes governing bonds.

a total retracement here!  Lower than than 2020 lows, and tested the 2018 lows

LQD Investment Grade (not Junk) bonds

Posted by matt on 1st of Oct 2022 at 12:03 pm

I'm posting this again since it got buried. LQD is investment grade not junk bonds

LQD - Chart Link -  weekly view, almost back to the Mar 2020 low, wow!

LQD - Chart Link  -  monthly log view, so far just over 24% off the highs, back in 2008 this fell 27.3% - so it's almost falling as much from a percentage standpoint as it did back in 2008, and this bear market is FAR from over

nothing has broken in our bond market, YET. But I could see it eventually happening. I think this could be quite worse than 2008 because of all the debt and other thing

Steve. have you checked your

Posted by watcdy on 1st of Oct 2022 at 11:02 am

Steve. have you checked your TS charts ?  Has the removal of those indicators hit your screens ? 

SPX Updated Views

Posted by steve on 1st of Oct 2022 at 10:38 am

$SPX - Chart Link

$SPX - Chart Link

I have shown this expanding diagonal pattern and you can see the reaction from August high which was projecting a major move LOWER. 

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