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SPX - seems unlikely we

Posted by DigiNomad on 23rd of Jun 2022 at 04:58 pm

SPX - seems unlikely we bottomed in between two major fibs. I think we just need some time so that the channel can extend and allow for a push down to at least the .50 retrace level. 

Thanks for these kobie -

NQ 1min

Posted by DigiNomad on 23rd of Jun 2022 at 04:45 pm

Thanks for these kobie -  I love the indicator group Matt & Steve use most of the time, but the simplicity of these is great intraday. 

SPX - felt better than

Posted by DigiNomad on 23rd of Jun 2022 at 04:02 pm

SPX - felt better than a close just under the 9 EMA...but I guess that's a bear market for you. 

Not sure about CLPT. I prefer to stick to indexes myself but some clients like to take flyers...especially biotech peeps, or so it seems. 

APLS - a client of

Posted by DigiNomad on 23rd of Jun 2022 at 03:05 pm

APLS - a client of mine asked me to keep an eye on this one for her. She's a biotech researcher. She's been hit and miss on biotech picks over the years, but this one looks ready to pop. I thought the H&S was going to play out, but I could have been wrong. 

OIH at 38.2 Fib from

Posted by DigiNomad on 23rd of Jun 2022 at 01:54 pm

OIH at 38.2 Fib from March 2020 lows to the recent highs.

Exactly, that's the tough part about analyzing daily flow in options. 

That's what he was suggesting. I did the opposite and sold AUG 58 puts (effectively going long). I think owning XLE with a cost basis in the 56 range won't be horrible in the medium term...if it drops further and gets put to me. 

Right on cue, Najarian says unusual activity in XLE puts today....which would indicate the 200 isn't thought to be supportive (by whoever is buying the puts anyway). 

XLE hit 200 DMA today.

Posted by DigiNomad on 23rd of Jun 2022 at 12:58 pm

XLE hit 200 DMA today. I'm seeing some divergence on 3 minute so starting to build position here (swing trade to 9...hopefully)

Interesting. It actually looks fairly predictive. But I started day trading with news events about 20 years ago...and it didn't go well! 

kobie - what does the

NQ 30 resistance area 11740.....

Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Jun 2022 at 03:50 pm

kobie - what does the "N" on your chart stand for? Is that a custom strategy overlay? 

Definitely depends on your trading style. My plan calls for entering longs when 15 min chart is oversold and short when it's overbought...but that's assuming I'm also positioned relatively well on the 2 hour times frame. I trade about 75% option spreads...closer to 95% these days...so it gives me more wiggle room. Still, you don't want to put on a long biased spread trade intended to last 3 weeks if the 2 hour chart is overbought and/or their is significant divergence. If I was constructing spreads with LEAPS, I would change the time frames I use to trigger. 

Food prices will only go lower if the higher prices caused demand to fall. If they tested higher prices in a bid to to retain margins and found that it didn't trigger demand destruction, then the commodity going lower will not trigger end product producers to lower prices. 

EEM looking very interesting (as

Posted by DigiNomad on 21st of Jun 2022 at 03:49 pm

EEM looking very interesting (as suggested in yesterdays newsletter). I simplified down to SPX and NDX...mostly SPX a few months ago and have done very well as a result (and it's easier to keep up with)...but an allocation here is tempting  after only having a few EEM shares for tracking purposes for years now. 

Ouch. Yeah, I'm on a

7 Eleven

Posted by DigiNomad on 21st of Jun 2022 at 12:28 pm

Ouch. Yeah, I'm on a business trip in California and it's brutal. If Biden wants to yell at an industry for price gouging (I don't think he should but since he is...), he should take a look at rental car companies instead of oil companies. I still pay for the inflated fuel that goes into the things but rental prices are still about 150% of what I would have paid 2 years ago. 

TLSA needs to hit 450 - 500 before this thing has a chance of being over. I was so pissed when they added it to the indexes. Not because I'm not an Elon fan boy (I kinda am) but because it has a 100+ PE (higher back then). I'm basically libertarian, but I wouldn't balk if the S&P made a rule about not allowing PE's over 50 into the 500 index. 

SPX - I've been posting

Posted by DigiNomad on 16th of Jun 2022 at 08:51 pm

SPX - I've been posting periodically for couple of months about the 200 week EMA looking like a magnet on /ES. Finally touched it. If you look back through the decades, it marked a lot of bottoms. I personally think we're going quite a bit lower, but history is history. 

Steve, as you suggested a month or two back, I think a couple of circuit breaker down days would be needed before the PPT steps in (you suggested the circuit breaker days previously, I'm just conflating that commentary with the PPT commentary)

Short trade - I took

Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of Jun 2022 at 04:52 pm

Short trade - I took it (with my own option twist) and love your systems, but I also took a few long options trades on my own against the SPX (SPY/XSP). Now I'm wondering if we're close to any reversion to mean longs on the systems? Maybe I jumped the gun, but the vol was juicy and I'm selling July 330 SPY puts on the long side. Or maybe I'm stupid to not realize that if the reversion systems didn't trigger after this many down days, the big drop is still to come!

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