3309 Drysdale Ct
Edwardsville, IL 62025
Elon just broke the internet
If the YouTube videos had time stamps, it would be better than
the webpage format. Until then, it doesn't work for me since I like
to pop around different areas on different nights.
It would likely drive engagement for new users
also...especially if they stumble into via YouTube. Might want to
try something like this tool:
BTC breaking above 35K
I don't mind losing out on full reversion to mean
trades...especially counter trend trades (price below 200 and
50 day MA). I've actually taken off 2/3 of the initial trade now,
so I have locked in a gain no matter what happens between now and
when the system trade actually closes. Taking 2/3's off at
1st target is kind of the magic number, in my experience. The
initial move is by far the highest probability part of the trade so
I start large knowing that I'm going to scale out of most in the
higher probability area of the trade. Of course, this is not an
option if you don't develop targets to start with.
My "parachute" currently is actually an allocation to long dated
naked SPX calls that are way out of the money. Fed is in a
box and will start printing again sooner or later, not sure which,
but it will happen. Typically they don't step in until they can say
with a straight face "we had no choice" which is usually when the
market is falling precipitously and is blowing through support
Totally, the only likely reason it will happen is because of a
drastic shift in the economic outlook...which always happens
eventually, but it doesn't look imminent given the fiscal moronomy
at play. Notice he's tap dancing around the fiscal issue, but he
did hint at it as the source of the problem at least twice already
by my count.
Rate cut questions - JP has to beat them over the head about not
considering rate cuts during every conference call....and they
still ask incessantly. Clearly going to take a long time to
untrain the Pavlovian behavior.
Open systems trades - I took off 50% just now. Would have
left it on, but it's already a nice move for a counter trend,
reversion to mean trade. If the trade was in the direction of the
trend, I'd feel better about holding into the conference
I think SPX is just squeezing...technical bounce from a logical
level. HYG almost has to go down in price / higher in yield. The
current level relative to Gov bonds makes no sense heading into a
default cycle (continuing through the cycle...bankruptcies have
URA - hell of a pop so far today. Coincidence that CNBC has been
running a story about a "Global EV Market Implosion" today? I know
they are not directly related (yet) but maybe the EV market issues
are a sign that people are starting to value and demand rational
approaches to "green energy" vs the not well thought out pie in the
sky / rose colored glasses approach we've been subjected to so far.
A more rational approach/mindset would be great for
Another potential motive for Iran to escalate. Can you imagine
how many times per day they check the charts for crude prices?
Safe to say that it's more than any of us.
Oppenheimer SPX forecast - speaking of the market being wrong a
lot lately....today Oppenheimer cut their end of year SPX target
from 4900 to 4400. WTF were they smoking with the 4900 target in
the 1st place?
No big deal, just a ~10% cut on a 2 month target.
SPX 2hr - Demark 9 just popped up....caught me by surprise
I agree. That's why I posted. But we had a fake breakdown on
October 5th also. All it will take is an escalation on any 1 of
many fronts (1 headline basically) The market is betting on a
contained conflict. The market also bet that higher for longer
wouldn't be a thing and inflation would continue its march lower.
Market has been wrong a lot lately.
Sounds great in theory, but excessive diversification leads to
subpar returns over time and sort of flies in the face of using
technical analysis for active management. My experience is
that really well constructed "all weather portfolios" may return 5%
per year. That's great if the 10 year is near 0%, but not so great
if it's at 5% or higher. On the plus side, if you want 5%
through thick and thin, you can get it today, for the next 5 years,
without touching equities or riskier than advertised corporate
Oil - I would be surprised if this weakness lasts. With the Gaza
ground phase started, it's hard to imagine we don't see an
escalation from Hezbollah. I'm not an expert on that region but I
think just Hezbollah would be a best case scenario. Iran probably
chomping at the bit to strike in some way, but they're playing the
social media game for the time being. Their current strategy is
very similar to how Saddam Hussein played the Western Media 20
years ago...almost exactly 20 years now that I think about it (I
had been in Iraq for a couple of months on this day 20 years ago).
*When I say "they" I mean Iran and all of its proxies, including
Hezbollah and Hamas.
Fed meeting this week - the last thing the bulls should want is
a strong rally into the meeting. Historically, the Fed steps in
only when the market shows signs of coming unhinged. A nice rally
now would be a big green light for the Fed. They want asset prices
lower (equities, homes, etc), but they've never been able to
withstand the pressure when markets head down too quickly in a
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