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Elon just broke the internet

Posted by DigiNomad on 29th of Nov 2023 at 05:25 pm

Elon just broke the internet   

If the YouTube videos had time stamps, it would be better than the webpage format. Until then, it doesn't work for me since I like to pop around different areas on different nights.

It would likely drive engagement for new users also...especially if they stumble into via YouTube. Might want to try something like this tool:

BTC breaking above 35K

Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Nov 2023 at 04:46 pm

BTC breaking above 35K

I don't mind losing out on full reversion to mean trades...especially counter trend trades (price below 200  and 50 day MA). I've actually taken off 2/3 of the initial trade now, so I have locked in a gain no matter what happens between now and when the system trade actually closes.  Taking 2/3's off at 1st target is kind of the magic number, in my experience. The initial move is by far the highest probability part of the trade so I start large knowing that I'm going to scale out of most in the higher probability area of the trade. Of course, this is not an option if you don't develop targets to start with.  

My "parachute" currently is actually an allocation to long dated naked SPX calls that are way out of the money.   Fed is in a box and will start printing again sooner or later, not sure which, but it will happen. Typically they don't step in until they can say with a straight face "we had no choice" which is usually when the market is falling precipitously and is blowing through support levels.  

Totally, the only likely reason it will happen is because of a drastic shift in the economic outlook...which always happens eventually, but it doesn't look imminent given the fiscal moronomy at play. Notice he's tap dancing around the fiscal issue, but he did hint at it as the source of the problem at least twice already by my count. 

Rate cut questions - JP

Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Nov 2023 at 02:49 pm

Rate cut questions - JP has to beat them over the head about not considering rate cuts during every conference call....and they still ask incessantly.  Clearly going to take a long time to untrain the Pavlovian behavior. 

Open systems trades - I

Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Nov 2023 at 02:28 pm

Open systems trades - I took off 50% just now.  Would have left it on, but it's already a nice move for a counter trend, reversion to mean trade. If the trade was in the direction of the trend, I'd feel better about holding into the conference call. 

I think SPX is just squeezing...technical bounce from a logical level. HYG almost has to go down in price / higher in yield. The current level relative to Gov bonds makes no sense heading into a default cycle (continuing through the cycle...bankruptcies have already spiked). 

URA - hell of a

Posted by DigiNomad on 31st of Oct 2023 at 02:48 pm

URA - hell of a pop so far today. Coincidence that CNBC has been running a story about a "Global EV Market Implosion" today? I know they are not directly related (yet) but maybe the EV market issues are a sign that people are starting to value and demand rational approaches to "green energy" vs the not well thought out pie in the sky / rose colored glasses approach we've been subjected to so far.  A more rational approach/mindset would be great for URA. 

Another potential motive for Iran to escalate. Can you imagine how many times per day they check the charts for crude prices?  Safe to say that it's more than any of us. 

Oppenheimer SPX forecast - speaking

Posted by DigiNomad on 30th of Oct 2023 at 12:09 pm

Oppenheimer SPX forecast - speaking of the market being wrong a lot Oppenheimer cut their end of year SPX target from 4900 to 4400. WTF were they smoking with the 4900 target in the 1st place?  No big deal, just a ~10% cut on a 2 month target.  

SPX 2hr - Demark 9

SPX Short Term

Posted by DigiNomad on 30th of Oct 2023 at 11:57 am

SPX 2hr - Demark 9 just popped up....caught me by surprise

I agree. That's why I posted. But we had a fake breakdown on October 5th also. All it will take is an escalation on any 1 of many fronts (1 headline basically)  The market is betting on a contained conflict. The market also bet that higher for longer wouldn't be a thing and inflation would continue its march lower. Market has been wrong a lot lately. 

Sounds great in theory, but

High Performance KISS systems

Posted by DigiNomad on 30th of Oct 2023 at 11:37 am

Sounds great in theory, but excessive diversification leads to subpar returns over time and sort of flies in the face of using technical analysis for active management.  My experience is that really well constructed "all weather portfolios" may return 5% per year. That's great if the 10 year is near 0%, but not so great if it's at 5% or higher.  On the plus side, if you want 5% through thick and thin, you can get it today, for the next 5 years, without touching equities or riskier than advertised corporate bonds.

Oil - I would be

Posted by DigiNomad on 30th of Oct 2023 at 11:33 am

Oil - I would be surprised if this weakness lasts. With the Gaza ground phase started, it's hard to imagine we don't see an escalation from Hezbollah. I'm not an expert on that region but I think just Hezbollah would be a best case scenario. Iran probably chomping at the bit to strike in some way, but they're playing the social media game for the time being. Their current strategy is very similar to how Saddam Hussein played the Western Media 20 years ago...almost exactly 20 years now that I think about it (I had been in Iraq for a couple of months on this day 20 years ago). *When I say "they" I mean Iran and all of its proxies, including Hezbollah and Hamas. 

Fed meeting this week -

Posted by DigiNomad on 30th of Oct 2023 at 09:59 am

Fed meeting this week - the last thing the bulls should want is a strong rally into the meeting. Historically, the Fed steps in only when the market shows signs of coming unhinged. A nice rally now would be a big green light for the Fed. They want asset prices lower (equities, homes, etc), but they've never been able to withstand the pressure when markets head down too quickly in a straight line.


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