GOOG leg down

I suppose not, but that's not so unusual for VP's.  Different story with Prez nominees.  They ended around the whole process and completely cut out the voter preference. I'm surprised more on the left aren't up in arms. Every single blue state Governor bent the knee yesterday like it was a Game of Thrones episode and they were being threatened by dragons. Not a single peep of dissent...and yet, we know without a doubt that she is not liked.  Why so afraid? Maybe they made it very clear what they are capable of with the assassination attempt? 

Kamala has never won a primary. Never polled above 1% in a national poll that I know of. And the Democratic party rejected voters opportunity to have primaries and then install her at the last minute...and everyone is like "cool."  OMG. This is really getting crazy. I wouldn't be able to look at myself in the mirror knowing I had been installed without ever having a shred of evidence that the public wanted me in the position. The delegates are essentially telling the voters that they know better what's good for them. 

Visa - buy now pay never (and demand taxpayer funded bailout for irresponsible lending) programs eating V's lunch?

I've been doing my grocery shopping on Amazon recently. It's not bad at all - actually it's quite good. But they always suggest that I can pay later, over a period of many months....for my groceries.  I mean, what could possibly go wrong if people are using BNPL to buy milk and eggs? 

TSLA is almost impossible to track on X.  Everyone jockeying for likes figured out that all you have to do to get a couple hundred likes is to say something positive about a cult stock and it broke the value of following those names on social media. 

TSLA missed

So far so good on my GOOG up TSLA down prediction...but you never know with earnings days

GOOG beat on top and bottom

GOOG boom then bust. Haha. It's all over the place

Daniel D Martino Booth, formerly of the Fed Reserve, swears up and down that when the dust clears on the jobs revisions, the recession started last October. 

Going to be a strange recession, most likely....already has been...but how does DBA typically fare during recessions? 

Tom on TastyTrade is predicting the same thing but admits that his TSLA down thesis is mostly political   

FWIW, my thought that it will most likely be weak has ZERO, zilch, nothing to do with politics. 

GOOGL options are killing me. I'm so used to the liquidity in SPX (my primary product). Absolutely sucks trying to trade this sucker.

I will make a note and try GOOG options next time to see if they are any better. 

If GOOG drops on the print I'll probably buy it for the conference call...which I think is going to be mind-blowing. I think it's underappreciated how many irons they have in the fire right now and how most of them are dominating. 

Interesting commentary on GOOGL skew. I'm also picking the same thing up from the media along with a very bullish TSLA bias. I predict the exact opposite result today (TSLA weak and GOOG strong) but I'm not putting serious money behind either...long both but neutralizing into the close (covering / protecting profits with short calls)....so it's almost not worth mentioning. 

If you think about it in the context of the passive flows that have come to dominate the market, IWM will likely never lead again, at least not for a sustained amount of time.  It just isn't the way funds flow to cap weighted indexes and very few people are going to go into their 401k's to adjust small cap exposure to something like a 60% allocation. Not going to happen. Not to mention that the passive flows actually strengthen the larger players at the expense of the smaller companies - the deck is completely stacked against IWM in the medium to longer term. 

Love the intraday update! Thanks. 

We're nearing the tip of the spear in terms of passive (some would say ponzi) flow beneficiaries this week and next.  Market mechanics and structure have set this small group of companies up to be almost impossible to compete against....so it's not really wise to bet against them or the market while they are reporting.  

This alert I set after Matt's post about exit conditions yesterday might have top ticked the market. We'll see, but it was definitely timely. 

I'm not exactly sure how to prep for this risk but I thought I'd throw it out there since it's something I'm working on today - the market traditionally closes for a day of mourning when a sitting president dies.

I have a sneaking suspicion that this tradition will not be followed this time around if it happens during the week. The chaos around zero and 2 DTE options alone would be insane. Lots of money lost all around.  But still have to plan in case they bumble their way through tradition (if he does die).  If they can delay the announcement and/or event until Friday or Saturday, that would be better for the market. 

Coup theories trending on X right now are WILD.  I recommend not reading them with an open mind. Definitely approach it from the get go with mindset the media is demanding that they are just sick conspiracy theories. Otherwise there is a very real danger that some of the questions people are asking might start to sound a tiny bit plausible and potentially valid, despite lack of confirmation. Not good.

Of course, they could end this all immediately with a simple and short live video feed with Joe. So, that's what they'll do, right?