3309 Drysdale Ct
Edwardsville, IL 62025
SPX - seems unlikely we bottomed in between two major fibs. I
think we just need some time so that the channel can extend and
allow for a push down to at least the .50 retrace level.
Thanks for these kobie - I love the indicator group Matt
& Steve use most of the time, but the simplicity of these is
SPX - felt better than a close just under the 9 EMA...but I
guess that's a bear market for you.
Not sure about CLPT. I prefer to stick to indexes myself but
some clients like to take flyers...especially biotech peeps, or so
APLS - a client of mine asked me to keep an eye on this one for
her. She's a biotech researcher. She's been hit and miss on biotech
picks over the years, but this one looks ready to pop. I thought
the H&S was going to play out, but I could have been
OIH at 38.2 Fib from March 2020 lows to the recent highs.
Exactly, that's the tough part about analyzing daily flow in
That's what he was suggesting. I did the opposite and sold AUG
58 puts (effectively going long). I think owning XLE with a cost
basis in the 56 range won't be horrible in the medium term...if it
drops further and gets put to me.
Right on cue, Najarian says unusual activity in XLE puts
today....which would indicate the 200 isn't thought to be
supportive (by whoever is buying the puts anyway).
XLE hit 200 DMA today. I'm seeing some divergence on 3 minute so
starting to build position here (swing trade to 9...hopefully)
Interesting. It actually looks fairly predictive. But I started
day trading with news events about 20 years ago...and it didn't go
kobie - what does the "N" on your chart stand for? Is that a
custom strategy overlay?
Definitely depends on your trading style. My plan calls for
entering longs when 15 min chart is oversold and short when it's
overbought...but that's assuming I'm also positioned relatively
well on the 2 hour times frame. I trade about 75% option
spreads...closer to 95% these days...so it gives me more wiggle
room. Still, you don't want to put on a long biased spread trade
intended to last 3 weeks if the 2 hour chart is overbought and/or
their is significant divergence. If I was constructing spreads with
LEAPS, I would change the time frames I use to trigger.
Food prices will only go lower if the higher prices caused
demand to fall. If they tested higher prices in a bid to to retain
margins and found that it didn't trigger demand destruction, then
the commodity going lower will not trigger end product producers to
EEM looking very interesting (as suggested in yesterdays
newsletter). I simplified down to SPX and NDX...mostly SPX a few
months ago and have done very well as a result (and it's easier to
keep up with)...but an allocation here is tempting after only
having a few EEM shares for tracking purposes for years
Ouch. Yeah, I'm on a business trip in California and it's
brutal. If Biden wants to yell at an industry for price gouging (I
don't think he should but since he is...), he should take a look at
rental car companies instead of oil companies. I still pay for the
inflated fuel that goes into the things but rental prices are still
about 150% of what I would have paid 2 years ago.
TLSA needs to hit 450 - 500 before this thing has a chance of
being over. I was so pissed when they added it to the indexes. Not
because I'm not an Elon fan boy (I kinda am) but because it has a
100+ PE (higher back then). I'm basically libertarian, but I
wouldn't balk if the S&P made a rule about not allowing PE's
over 50 into the 500 index.
SPX - I've been posting periodically for couple of months about
the 200 week EMA looking like a magnet on /ES. Finally touched it.
If you look back through the decades, it marked a lot of bottoms. I
personally think we're going quite a bit lower, but history is
Steve, as you suggested a month or two back, I think a couple of
circuit breaker down days would be needed before the PPT steps in
(you suggested the circuit breaker days previously, I'm just
conflating that commentary with the PPT commentary)
Short trade - I took it (with my own option twist) and love your
systems, but I also took a few long options trades on my own
against the SPX (SPY/XSP). Now I'm wondering if we're close to any
reversion to mean longs on the systems? Maybe I jumped the gun, but
the vol was juicy and I'm selling July 330 SPY puts on the long
side. Or maybe I'm stupid to not realize that if the reversion
systems didn't trigger after this many down days, the big drop is
still to come!
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