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Did Mark Newton from FundStrat

Posted by DigiNomad on 24th of Mar 2023 at 12:22 pm

Did Mark Newton from FundStrat just call for a pullback?  Hell might freeze over...

Window dressing engaged. Let's get

Posted by DigiNomad on 24th of Mar 2023 at 12:01 pm

Window dressing engaged. Let's get some lipstick on this pig and then take it down once statements are out. 

I'm leaning slightly the front month options. Window dressing is a thing. SPX has been basically flat for the year but QQQ is up big.  All other things being equal, managers are going to want to have the winning names in their client portfolios when statements get generated at the end of next week.  Now that I've posted this - you're probably clear to short away   

I'm sure I'm telling a

sharp bounce here last 10 min

Posted by DigiNomad on 24th of Mar 2023 at 11:26 am

I'm sure I'm telling a lot of you something you already know, but I just compared TOS data / charts to TradingView (I have a premium subscription but don't pay for real time data). SPX is right on, but /ES is not. I don't trade /ES, or futures more generally, which explains why I didn't notice an issue with trading results. But now I'm going to circle back and compare some other important indicators, like VIX. 

I know it's delayed after

sharp bounce here last 10 min

Posted by DigiNomad on 24th of Mar 2023 at 11:13 am

I know it's delayed after hours, but I thought it was real time intraday. I'll definitely have to double check that. Seems like my trading results would be AFU if i was trading with a 15 minute delay! 

If you want to use the 6 chart setup that Matt sent out recently, you'll need the top / premium plan. I have the plan just below that. It only allows 4 charts per tab and only 8 indicators, but that is fine for me (I spend most of my time on a laptop with a portable 2nd screen attached. Neither screen is huge.)

I switched over to PDBC last year and came to regret it somewhat.
1. The performance has been horrid since the switch and the 10%, annual dividend (payable once per year) took a big ass chunk out of the price. I get it, but try explaining that to clients.
2. DBC is a section 1256 contract and therefore gets 60/40 tax treatment (in most circumstances). This is worth the K-1 hassle, in my opinion, unless you are strictly a buy and hold investor, which most of us in the BPT community are not. 

Short seller lawsuits? I wonder

Posted by DigiNomad on 23rd of Mar 2023 at 04:51 pm

Short seller lawsuits? I wonder how many short sellers have sued to the Feds over the years because of damages incurred when they made decisions based on fundamentals only to have the Fed come in with printing press bazookas blazing and make fools of them...sometimes outside the bounds of the constitution and/or regulations.  (remember when JP admitted to crossing a bright red line when he bought HYG directly and put it on the Feds balance sheet?)

I worked in Fed Gov acquisitions for over a decade - we got sued daily. But it's not something the public typically hears about, with some exceptions, like the Boeing Tanker contract, etc. Gov attorneys are VERY risk averse. It's not their money so they settle 99 times out of 100 rather than risk an adverse outcome in litigation, which is likely considering the talent mismatch. Of course, the settlements typically include NDAs (only Donald Trump is not allowed to use NDA's, apparently). 

*I made up the 99 out of 100 number, but I know from experience that if a case has merit and standing, whether it's a strong case or not, the Gov leans heavily towards settlement. 

No. Just one. I just dealt with a DBC K-1 earlier today. 

Windows dressed? Check. Followed my

Posted by DigiNomad on 23rd of Mar 2023 at 03:52 pm

Windows dressed? Check. Followed my own advice this time. 

Rare temptation to go long

Posted by DigiNomad on 23rd of Mar 2023 at 03:31 pm

Rare temptation to go long actual stock here (SPY). It's very close to an objective stop (just below the 61.8 Matt pointed out last night). I'm bearish, but if I'm wrong, this doesn't seem like a bad place to take a shot.

Window dressing into the quarter end next week. Hard to say which way that goes, but up would not surprise me (long is the default for most managers). 

2023 - Battle at the 200.  However it plays out, we're likely to remember this years from now. 

Diablo - Larry Williams might have called asking for a rescue to save his bull market. 

Summary - rules are rules, only Congress can change them. Unless our friends and donors are in trouble. Then the rules will go out the window again.  

Little snip from a back

Posted by DigiNomad on 23rd of Mar 2023 at 02:42 pm

Little snip from a back and forth I had with Larry Williams the other day.  Not going to lie, if we close below the 200, I'm going to be very tempted to post in this thread again - something like, "Larry, for you, I'm available for consultations anytime. Let me know"   

Depends on your account size and other factors. I target around .25% of Net Liq in premium on a given trade, with the intent to take profits when 50% of the premium is decayed.  But it depends on my confidence level for that particular day / trading environment. Yesterday, I quadrupled down on 4080 call sale on that initial push up after the print. I normally wouldn't do that, but the situation seemed to call for it.

FWIW - my trade sizing is quite risk averse at .25% of net liq, but it withstood the trial by fire that was 2022. I finished last year solidly positive. The small bets allow for defending positions, when necessary (doubling down, rolling out, etc). 

Of course, right after I post, the system generates one of the few failed trades I've seen in a while. It happens with all systems, but it's guaranteed if I publicly suggest a strategy   

That depends on your style and trading plan.  Are you comfortable trading against the trend or prefer to enter only in the direction of the predominant trend? Etc, etc. I sell credit spreads (both puts and calls). So I'm primarily just looking for shorter term extremes for entries that increase my probability of success. I don't have to be completely right on the direction, but I'm less likely to get whacked if I enter at an extreme.

Matt, I've been using a

Posted by DigiNomad on 23rd of Mar 2023 at 01:35 pm

Matt, I've been using a Heikin Ashi chart setup in TradingView that you sent out a while ago (it might have been months ago).  The buy sell indicators are crazy good. Can't figure out exactly how they are constructed, but it works great, so I use it.  Thanks. 


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