Matt so pleased to see your Matt Macro Trend plays newsletter. I personally have been making some really good money out of URA and CCJ since 2020. Also got in when you suggested Gold. AZ has been great and PPLT too. Keep going mate, you are a gold mine!

I have based most of my trading on the SPY/ES systems but I have had two major meltdowns to my futures trading account. The first one was in Feb 2018 and the next was during the sharp trade talks correction from late Feb 2025 to the low of 4830 on the 7th April 2025.

So I went back to the basics. What is the general Margin requirement Tradestation  requires. The daily one is generous but the overnight margin is far more stringent. I have allowed $2000 per contract overnight. With my trading plan  of 1 MES contract for the first signal, 2 for the 2nd signal and 3 for the 3rd signal I would need 6*$2000 per individual system. (QEBTS, CCI, Bull Exhaust and Bear Long).  In my trading plan I allowed to be able to trade max of 4 systems and I do not use both ES and Spy. If ES happens before SPY I take ES. So based on margin, I would be able to trade all 4 systems with a $50k account. Being reasonably conservative I use a $60 k account. (Gave up the 6 figure trading accounts when I hit 74, stress too high now)

Then I prepared a spreadsheet for the QEBTS, CCI, BEAR XHAUST and Bear long showing the drawdowns for each of these systems during the Feb to 24th April period when the Bull Xhaust closed out. In summary the following:-

QEBTS:- 1st signal 27 feb, 2nd signal 4 march, 3rd signal 10 march.  This system was fortunate, it closed out before the big drop on the 7th April. The max drawdown at EOD(end of day) was +-$5900 but the wick low d/down was $11600. Assuming you had a $25k trading account and only traded one system your account would drop to $13400 at the wick low. Your overnight margin would be $12000 and your account would be close to a margin call. Close out was on the 28th March 25. 

CCI Divergence:- 1st signal 28th Feb, 2nd signal 2nd March and 3rd signal 6 March. This sytem closed out over three days, 19, 20 and 21 March. Again this system closed out before the big drop on 7th April.  Here the max drawdown at EOD was $8800 and the wick low was $13500. Again assuming you had a $25k account you would have seen your account at $11500 at the wick low. With margin requirement of  $12K you would be in trouble.

Bear long:- This had signals on the 7th and 8th April. This trade was very successful and made a good profit without any stress.

Bull exhaust:- Two signals here on 10 and 13 March. Good profitable trade, intraday wick of $1800 which would have been easy to live through.

So finally, I would have been OK if I had not placed a $ hard stop for the QEBTS and CCI Divergence systems as I always do per my trading plan. With the big losses I stayed away from the market for a month! After doing this exercise I will change my trading plan to allow for a more reasonable hard stop but the large intraday movements were quite scary.

Love your macro calls Matt. Keep them coming.   

No sound on the standard newsletter?

I LOVE THAT WE HAVE ALL THESE SYSTEMS ON BPT!!!

Which is the best way to trade the 10 year treasury yield

Anyone else struggling with NEWSLETTER audio cut out ??

Hi Matt,

I have opened the High performance system page but do not see the star for setting favorites. Is there a different link to use? thanks Mundy

thank you Raymuy.  I am in Australia but 00164 then tel number does not seem to work. i do not get the verification sms. Maybe James will be able to sort me out?

Hi Steve, thanks for the NQ update. Any possibility of including daily NQ in newsletter. Thanks Mundy

Thanks for the info RBreeze. Be a while before time to buy new gold/silver long positions.

Brilliant stats Matt. Managing the drawdowns are always tough but really worthwhile.

YES PLEASE, INCLUDE NQ, YM, RTY and CL.

Sold my home in Christchurch NZ in January, market 15-20% lower than in 2022. Trying to buy a property in Perth South (Western Australia).  Even though the mortgage rates are at+_6%pa after languishing at 2% in 2022, the market has moved up by 20-25% in the past year. This has largely be driven by increased immigration and shortage of stock.

My condolences Matt. Losing a parent takes so much out of your life. Pray you will find the strength to manage the future. Kind regards

Loved your rant. With those too geriatrics battling for the president you should throw your hat in, at least you make sense, they do not.

Yes, my wife and I have sold up in Christchurch. We will be moving to Perth in February where we have two of our three kids. Getting up to 75 this year so would prefer to be close to my kids now.

Count me in

Matt could you show us the BPGOLD chart please

What a great day today with all my GDX, GDXJ, EGO, MARA RIOT and other long -term spreads paying off in a big way. Held some big losses until this past month's big move up!!! Thanks Matt for that monthly gold chart. Am still holding longer term positions but all now beautifully in the green.