May 7th FYI:regarding the mechanical systems, I would stop trading the
QLD 15 min and SRS 6 min systems. The others are fine, but
the best is still the 15 min SRS system that never gave a trade
today,
Here you go, here's a quick page that I just made, it has the 15
in EOD mechanical systems! These charts will update in real
time right on the page!! All you have to do is keep it open
and in real time you can see when the MA's cross for Longs and
Shorts. However at this time I'm not above to do this with
the 6 min systems since Free charts only offers 5 and 10 min time
frames, not 6 mins. However whats cool is that these charts
are live right on the page! So just reference the page during
the day and you can see if the systems trigger or not!
Sorry but I don't understand your answer -- a swing system is
just as subject to whipsaws no? If you look at the chart I posted
you can see the 15 crossed above the 84 on the 10:00 to 10:06 bar
so the system went long but then it crossed back down on the next
bar so the system went short till the recent long signal on the
11:12 to 11:18 bar. Not blaming the system -- it has a great record
-- I just want to understand what's different if you didn't have
that whipsaw. Thanks.
no it didn't, the SKF swing system went long and the MA's are
still apart, no where near crossing back down. the long might
end of being a whipsaw or it might be a big winner, who knows yet,
but they have not crossed back down.
the 6 min is a lot whippier, just follow the 15. However
on the 6 min, many times the 3rd signal is the winner, so if it
reverses again, then maybe that will be the true signal
Looks Like it crossed to a SRS buy signal at the beginning of
the 9:45 candle.
A little scary in light of the gap down, although the 15 min gap
rule did not seem to argue against a market short
positioning. (i.e. It didn't tell us to "fade the gap"...as
far as I could tell)
3 min SKF Swing Mechanical System very close to a cross
...that the position of the crosses on the Mechanical Systems
Charts can shift as new data comes in? I swear that I saw the
EMA's on the 15 min SRS system (from Matt's sticky post) cross over
on the 9:00 candle today, but now that the day has gone on, the
position of the cross has shifted backwards so that the cross looks
like it occured yesterday!
Vaguely reminiscent of
Animal Farmwhere the rules posted on the side of the barn
tended to change with time.
Anyway, so far I'm glad I took this trade. But the day is
young.....
My guess is it looks like that because the 9ema is getting
steeper with the move. Can really only judge the signal by reading
the ema values at at the close of the candles which still indicates
cross as today since 9ema value<=39ema value at close
yesterday.
Posted by philosoraptor on 13th of May 2009 at 11:46 am
I have also noticed that some of the candles change size and
shape in retrospect - is it because freestockcharts.com gets its
data only from BATS Exchange? This represents about 10% of total
traded volume, so is in effect a representative sample. Maybe it
updates total volume from other exchanges on a delayed basis,
thereby 'updating' certain candles and even slightly changing the
time of EMA cross over. Whatever, I prefer a more sinister
explanation...
just have your programmer put in a parameter for your EOD time
that you can manually set, and then just back test to see where you
get the better results
Posted by kengrakauskas on 6th of May 2009 at 10:32 pm
Matt;
Newbie member here. Lots to read and absorb here. The mechanical
systems interest me, and I wonder if you could briefly tell me how
or when you consider one of the systems broken? Is it based on the
number of intraday whipsaws? Number of losing trades in a row?
You're experience? What is the normal process of keeping folks
apprised of the favor of lack of favor of any one of the particular
systems?
I was playing with optimization routines applied to your
mechanical systems and varied a EOD exit that was various bars
before the real EOD. It seems that (at least recently) the results
are even better if exit is 15 to 20 minutes before EOD
(consistent with crazy market EOD observations )
My Java charts let me overlay SAR signals. SAR is used by many
people as a stop loss guide but it also can be a buy/sell signal.
Lately, I've found the SAR crosses of the prices get me out of a
daily mechanical trade maybe an hour before the EOD whipsaw and at
about the same price I would have had had I stuck around tio the
EOD.
You have to actually back test that; noticing that it works a
few times really tells you nothing unless you see that it gives you
statistically better results.
thanks for that asddress, Matt. Yesterday TS
crashed, and when I restarted, I had lost all my active strategy
charts. They just vanished. Had to re-make
everything.
Posted by dbray740 on 23rd of Apr 2009 at 03:30 pm
That's too bad. Do you do backup archiving? (Go to File,
then Backup/Restore). You can create a backup archive to put on a
disc or email to yourself or whatever, and if everything is
lost or if something gets messed up, you can restore everything
like it was when you created the archive. (I also do it so I can
put it all onto a second computer if my first one dies for some
reason.) I do archiving about once a week and I email the file to
myself. The process of creating an archive stops all backtesting
though, so make sure you don't do it while you're in the
middle of something important. If your computer has been doing
backups automatically, you might try to restore a recent one, and
that should have all of your strategy files as they were. (I'm
posting on this on the blog so that others can benefit from it if
things go wrong.)
daniel --thanks -- I had it set to backup every night at 12:01,
but when I went to restore I couldn't find those files. I was
so fed up I just re-did the charts. I have a second
hard-drive on my computer, so its easy enough for me to create an
archive file as you suggest.................thanks.
Yes PLEASE do the back up every day, or at last once in a while;
it only took one time for me to lose everything that forced me to
start backing up so that I could just reinstall my strategies if TS
crashed thus losing my stratieges and files
On days like today when all the leveraged ETF mechanical systems
trigger in the same direction, it occurs to me that they are likely
to all have similar outcomes, happy or grim. So my question
to the gurus: What is a reasonable value for the maximum
percentage of ones portfolio to have invested in the five
mechanical trades? TIA
blue -- good you're diversified among five. the systems
are profitable, so Robin is right -- put into them as much capital
as you can handle without becoming emotionally concerned with what
they do on any particular day or week. If it bums you out
when they lose, make your bets smaller. The old Jesse
Livermore line -- sell till you can sleep.
I truly appreciate your insights and the link to the PDF
file.
FWIW I placed 3% ( of total portfolio) in each of the QID, SDS
and SKF mechanical system triggers and 2% in each of the two SRS
triggers, for a total allocation of 12.6% of my portfolio. I
sold all of SKF at the close for a 5.8% profit and kept 1/2 %
positions overnight of the others (i.e. sold 3/4 QID and SDS
and 5/6 SRS), keeping these smaller swing positions in view of
Matt's Watch list picks having triggered. Also holding some
EEV from last week which has now also broken out and is showing a
5.8% gain.
Overall a spectacular day.
And as for Jesse Livermore's adage, I knew I
had something wrong, I've been drinking increasing doses
of a nice red wine till I can get to sleep!
Posted by rgoodwin on 20th of Apr 2009 at 05:12 pm
Nice post. It's when you plan your trades and can do it without
emotion or fear or greed that you will become, gradually, a better
trader, better in terms of success. Try to start planning maybe the
night before or first thing in the morning if that's better what
you want to do next time you trade. Having this plan, along with
your escape hatches identified, will allow you to just relax and
trade. I've personally been working on this real hard and it's
amazing the difference it makes in trading. I'm not feeling like I
missed someting or HAVE TO GET IN OR OUT, etc. If you are a good
technical trader, then set up the mechanicals with x percent and go
about doing technical trades with more. Gradually you will be
sufficiently trading enough money in a manageable number of
positions to be happy. Make a plan, stick with it, and you can be
successful.
Posted by rgoodwin on 20th of Apr 2009 at 01:02 pm
You should do some reading on this subject. One book I am
getting some good insight from is Van Tharp - Trade Your Way to
Financial Freedom. It focuses on just this very subject. Large book
to read - but pretty decent. It's very difficult for anyone to
advise how much you should put into any one trade. Not only that -
you need to know your risk tolerance. If you make your trades based
on an expected GAIN, that is just not the right mental mind set.
You need to make trades knowing a loss CAN happen - and know your
tolerance for such a loss such that it will not create an emotional
reaction if it should go that way. A positive close also should not
generate a euphoric reaction either. Although the mechanicals are
all up nicely at the moment, they can, and have been known to
totally reverse and close at a loss. Others here may have some
different insight - this is just my personal 2 cents.
You say NOT to include pre market and after hours trading in the
systems. If the rcommended MA's are used to make trading decisions
for normal hours based on crossovers after market or pre
market, have you backtested this information on the course of price
movements in normal market hours?
Posted by rgoodwin on 16th of Apr 2009 at 05:51 pm
geotex, I'm not sure your question makes sense but if a system
states it needs to be set up to ONLY trade 9:30 - 4:00 then indeed
that is how it was designed, optimized and backtested. Tell you
what, set up a chart with the specified settings and time
constraints. Run a report. Then change any setting to whatever
makes you feel good. Run a report. Likely the second report is not
going to look very good.
Everyone - so many questions on these systems are asked day in
and day out. Matt has the patience of a saint and I think most
folks using the systems have been very generous with help as well
but at some point you gotta do some of your own work. If you
are new to the blog, say so, and maybe patience will ensue,
otherwise you have been here long enough to have caught the
discussions and certainly know how to research on the blog. The
SYSTEMS are just that - SYSTEMS - like your CAR engine - can you
pull out the distributor and it keeps running? Not likely. Trade
the systems as they are presented, and if you want to make changes,
then go ahead and do your testing and make them - these are not the
only systems that can be run, you just need to do some of your own
homework.
When looking for a set up to get back in after the opening
bell, must we wait for a crossover, or are we getting back in
immediately where we left off at the EOD yesterday?
There is nothing in the standard reporting that will allow such
a breakout. One would either need a long only program or would have
to manually add up the long only results. Just wanted to let you
know that your request is likely not going to be available unless
Matt gets a lot of free time and get's very generous!
Looks like the SSO EMA's "kissed" but didn't acually cross on
his am's gap down. I'm curious how the automated systems
respond to this. Did anyone's system trigger a trade?
Although the EMA's are not close to crossing, I take it the
white dots are showing that there is a PSAR buy signal reversing
the sell trend since yesterday mid-morning. I know this is
not part of the system but seems to add support to the bearish
short term direction of the market.
What I see .. I notice when dots are below on SRS is a small
uptrend while when dots are above its a nice move down. I
know its a mech. system and your correct you trade the
system. I personal passed because I didn't like the current
risk/reward for going long per the dots. A $1.50-$2.50 gain
vs what I want to risk isn't what I'm looking for based on how
LARGE swings have been with SRS.
Thanks for your thoughtful reply. I also did not go long
SRS but the PSAR signal made me feel better about
entering the two mechanical trades.
Incidentally, for members having difficulty getting QLD and SSO
to short, you can try going long QID and SDS,
respectively. I know this is not how the system was back
tested but I have gotten qualitatively similar results with these
substitutions. FWIW.
Thanks, I have indeed been following this. I was just
curious about what price point the automatic system triggered at
versus those of us who still trade manually. (I got in at
29.09)
Posted by littlemule on 27th of Mar 2009 at 02:20 pm
You did a great job with your page and explanations, Matt. My
platform allows for 6 min charts as well. Traded QLD off your page
yesterday which provides more flexibility!
guys, regarding the link to those charts and the mechanical
system ONLY use the links from this blog, I will deleting the links
on last nights update sometime soon for security purposes
Hey Matt - I get the titles for your mechancal systems (in red)
and a SIlverlight install logo. I've installed Silverlight but
still no charts. (MAC system correct for Silverlight). Any
ideas?
don't worry about that, not sure what it is, looks like a MA on
volume. I have to clean up the charts on the weekend, the
MA's are the most important. PSAR and volume are good
guidlelines
Well the systems have not triggered obviously, however it's nice
to see that those charts are updating on their own directly on the
page! that's so cool. However I want to change the format of
the charts so that are easier to read, this is only a test, I'll
clean it up when I have some time
Amazing Matt and Steve. This site keeps getting
better. These charts will really help everyone stay on the
same page and avoid quirky discrepencies among users with different
platforms trying to determine if their line crossed or
not.
Thanks.
One more suggestion is if you could add labels and parameters to
the indicators for the benefit of those who have tradestation and
are trying to run the chart locally as well.
Posted by alphahorn on 25th of Mar 2009 at 09:53 am
is there an overview of these charts for newcomers that explains
what's on the charts? is it MACD at the bottom if so what
settings, and what are the white dots?
That's great Matt! Nice to have as a confirm even if we have our
own set up. Any chance you could make the MA lines a lighter color?
The blue one in particular is a little hard to see (at least on my
monitor)
On behalf of those trading the EOD systems, this is an
incredible service. Now, if it isn't asking too much, and
when you have the time, those of us who can't day trade would
appreciate the same thing with the swing trade systems.
I can do the same with the swing systems systems, however the
swing systems also have a stop loss and profit targets. The
stop loss and profit target cannot be put onto these charts!
However that's not a big deal, you can just calculate them
yourself. For example the on the SRS 15 min swing system,
there is a profit target of 21% and a Stop loss of 10%. In
other words, when you enter the trade, you just have to manually
set buy and sell stops. You exit the trade either when these
stops are hit, or the MA's crossover again, what ever comes
first.
The stop and profit loss complication makes a lot of sense.
Again, you guys are the hardest working in the business, so
if you can do this for your subscribers, it won't go
unappreciated.
Posted by tomand1969 on 24th of Mar 2009 at 05:34 pm
Thanks for the link Matt, do you know what company/service
offers 6 minute charts. I use TOS and they too only have 5 or 10
minute charts. Does Stockcharts offer 6 minute charts?
EOD Mechancail Systems Page Real Time
Posted by matt on 24th of Mar 2009 at 05:13 pm
May 7th FYI: regarding the mechanical systems, I would stop trading the QLD 15 min and SRS 6 min systems. The others are fine, but the best is still the 15 min SRS system that never gave a trade today,
Here you go, here's a quick page that I just made, it has the 15 in EOD mechanical systems! These charts will update in real time right on the page!! All you have to do is keep it open and in real time you can see when the MA's cross for Longs and Shorts. However at this time I'm not above to do this with the 6 min systems since Free charts only offers 5 and 10 min time frames, not 6 mins. However whats cool is that these charts are live right on the page! So just reference the page during the day and you can see if the systems trigger or not!
EOD mechanical systems page - with real time dynamic charts
Also here's a page which explains the systems in more detail:
Mechanical Systems Page detailed explaination
KRE
Posted by fixdgear on 22nd of May 2009 at 10:25 am
HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM
boy very nice buy on
Posted by matt on 20th of May 2009 at 11:12 am
boy very nice buy on the SKF swing system! 15/84 SMA
BLOG CHART B.PNG Matt, Unfortunately I only
Posted by bkout3 on 20th of May 2009 at 11:20 am
Matt,
Unfortunately I only just now went long after that move -- did your system stay long?
it's a swing system, why
Posted by matt on 20th of May 2009 at 11:26 am
it's a swing system, why would it sell so quickly. yes it will be long until either the 15/84 SMA's cross on the 6 min chart or profit target is hit
Sorry but I don't understand
Posted by bkout3 on 20th of May 2009 at 11:33 am
Sorry but I don't understand your answer -- a swing system is just as subject to whipsaws no? If you look at the chart I posted you can see the 15 crossed above the 84 on the 10:00 to 10:06 bar so the system went long but then it crossed back down on the next bar so the system went short till the recent long signal on the 11:12 to 11:18 bar. Not blaming the system -- it has a great record -- I just want to understand what's different if you didn't have that whipsaw. Thanks.
no it didn't, the SKF
Posted by matt on 20th of May 2009 at 11:44 am
no it didn't, the SKF swing system went long and the MA's are still apart, no where near crossing back down. the long might end of being a whipsaw or it might be a big winner, who knows yet, but they have not crossed back down.
here's a chart, see the 15/84 SMA'
SKF swing.png
The chart you posted shows
Posted by bkout3 on 20th of May 2009 at 12:14 pm
The chart you posted shows the same whipsaw -- buy, sell, buy --- unless you filtered it out with some other criteria?
Matt
Posted by blue on 19th of May 2009 at 10:39 am
Have you let the SRS 6 minute system out of jail? (It's still listed on the sticky poat as not to be played as of May 7, along with the QLD 15 min.)
Was listed as a winner in last night's update, though.
Myself, can't get enough of these Mechanical Systems! Just curious about the official stance on this one.
SRS 6 min SMA 8/71
Posted by blue on 19th of May 2009 at 01:45 pm
Whipsaw.... I think this one just broke parole and may need to be sent back to jail.....
the 6 min is a
Posted by matt on 19th of May 2009 at 01:53 pm
the 6 min is a lot whippier, just follow the 15. However on the 6 min, many times the 3rd signal is the winner, so if it reverses again, then maybe that will be the true signal
Mechanical Systems
Posted by blue on 18th of May 2009 at 10:04 am
SRS 15 minute system crossing to signal SRS short at end of current candle...
SKF 3minute system also crossed to short.
15 minute gap rule seems to support short term market bullish stance as well?
Once again into mthe breach....
SSO 15 min Mechanical System
Posted by blue on 14th of May 2009 at 02:35 pm
Crossing long. Due to signal a buy at end of 2:30 to 2:45 candle.
In the past, when one mechanical after another signals a buy, it can end up being a great day.
However, if the market swoons as so many TA guru's expect.... it won't be pretty for mechanical players today.
SRS 15 min Mechanical EMA 9/39
Posted by blue on 14th of May 2009 at 12:22 pm
Looks to be crossing for a short signal at the end of this 15 min candle. These EMA's apply to both the EOD and swing systems
3 min SKF mechanical swing system crossed to short
Posted by blue on 14th of May 2009 at 11:31 am
Does 6 min SKF Mechanical Swing System (SMA 15/84) confirm?
yes it did
Posted by matt on 14th of May 2009 at 11:38 am
yes it did
Website on Live Intra day charts free?
Posted by johnc4b13 on 13th of May 2009 at 04:48 pm
Matt, what website do you use to get those live intraday charts?
Please advise
www.freestockcharts.com There are better ones out
Posted by gabebristow on 13th of May 2009 at 05:04 pm
www.freestockcharts.com
There are better ones out there that cost money, but it's hard to complain with the price of this website.
thanks
Posted by johnc4b13 on 13th of May 2009 at 05:57 pm
thanks
We use stockcharts and Tradestation
Posted by dodgerdog on 13th of May 2009 at 04:50 pm
We use stockcharts and Tradestation but many brokers offer such services.
SRS
Posted by blue on 13th of May 2009 at 02:04 pm
Again at HOD. Go baby go
SRS 15 min Mechanical EMA 9/39
Posted by blue on 13th of May 2009 at 09:52 am
Looks Like it crossed to a SRS buy signal at the beginning of the 9:45 candle.
A little scary in light of the gap down, although the 15 min gap rule did not seem to argue against a market short positioning. (i.e. It didn't tell us to "fade the gap"...as far as I could tell)
3 min SKF Swing Mechanical System very close to a cross
Has anyone else noticed
Posted by blue on 13th of May 2009 at 11:19 am
...that the position of the crosses on the Mechanical Systems Charts can shift as new data comes in? I swear that I saw the EMA's on the 15 min SRS system (from Matt's sticky post) cross over on the 9:00 candle today, but now that the day has gone on, the position of the cross has shifted backwards so that the cross looks like it occured yesterday!
Vaguely reminiscent of Animal Farmwhere the rules posted on the side of the barn tended to change with time.
Anyway, so far I'm glad I took this trade. But the day is young.....
My guess is it looks
Posted by bkout3 on 13th of May 2009 at 11:44 am
My guess is it looks like that because the 9ema is getting steeper with the move. Can really only judge the signal by reading the ema values at at the close of the candles which still indicates cross as today since 9ema value<=39ema value at close yesterday.
all crosses are equal, but some are more equal than others
Posted by biketastic on 13th of May 2009 at 11:31 am
I have also noticed that
Posted by philosoraptor on 13th of May 2009 at 11:46 am
I have also noticed that some of the candles change size and shape in retrospect - is it because freestockcharts.com gets its data only from BATS Exchange? This represents about 10% of total traded volume, so is in effect a representative sample. Maybe it updates total volume from other exchanges on a delayed basis, thereby 'updating' certain candles and even slightly changing the time of EMA cross over. Whatever, I prefer a more sinister explanation...
what did gap indicator say?
Posted by lpant on 13th of May 2009 at 09:56 am
Mechanical system
Posted by winter39 on 11th of May 2009 at 01:20 pm
A programmer I know thinks it is best to exit the 15 min bars either at 3:30, or 3:45 (whichever has the best optimization), but not at 3:59.
What is your opinion of that?
Thank you.
just have your programmer put
Posted by matt on 11th of May 2009 at 01:38 pm
just have your programmer put in a parameter for your EOD time that you can manually set, and then just back test to see where you get the better results
Nech. system breakdowns
Posted by kengrakauskas on 6th of May 2009 at 10:32 pm
Matt;
Newbie member here. Lots to read and absorb here. The mechanical systems interest me, and I wonder if you could briefly tell me how or when you consider one of the systems broken? Is it based on the number of intraday whipsaws? Number of losing trades in a row? You're experience? What is the normal process of keeping folks apprised of the favor of lack of favor of any one of the particular systems?
Thank you!!!
Ken Grakauskas
see my post in the
Posted by matt on 7th of May 2009 at 12:01 am
see my post in the education filter from (April 28, 2009 04:17pm)
QLD 15 min mechanical
Posted by blue on 6th of May 2009 at 11:15 am
Very near a cross, to a short QLD signal
ES 500
Posted by snelson8 on 29th of Apr 2009 at 06:24 pm
hi matt
love your presentation. have you got the MA S for the S & P 500 IE es emini
thanks steve nelson ( not the guru you work with)
Matt
Posted by cdjd on 27th of Apr 2009 at 04:15 pm
preliminary weekend observations.
I was playing with optimization routines applied to your mechanical systems and varied a EOD exit that was various bars before the real EOD. It seems that (at least recently) the results are even better if exit is 15 to 20 minutes before EOD (consistent with crazy market EOD observations )
Will let you if further exploration confirms.
EOD warning signal
Posted by druck on 27th of Apr 2009 at 09:16 pm
My Java charts let me overlay SAR signals. SAR is used by many people as a stop loss guide but it also can be a buy/sell signal. Lately, I've found the SAR crosses of the prices get me out of a daily mechanical trade maybe an hour before the EOD whipsaw and at about the same price I would have had had I stuck around tio the EOD.
You have to actually back
Posted by matt on 28th of Apr 2009 at 12:44 am
You have to actually back test that; noticing that it works a few times really tells you nothing unless you see that it gives you statistically better results.
QLD 15 min mechanical
Posted by blue on 23rd of Apr 2009 at 02:52 pm
Looks like it's crossing in the present candle, be ready to reverse at 3:00 ET if it remains crossed
No QLD cross in 2:45 ET Candle
Posted by blue on 23rd of Apr 2009 at 03:00 pm
It fell out of it's cross. ( I have the chart magnified with my own software so it's easier to tell.)
QLD
Posted by rgoodwin on 23rd of Apr 2009 at 03:06 pm
I show it was close but has not crossed and the EMA's are running parallel now. I'm not trading this but have the chart up.
Yes Robin, Tradestation is so
Posted by matt on 23rd of Apr 2009 at 03:16 pm
Yes Robin, Tradestation is so screwed up for me today it's unreal. I can't get charts for QLD, QID, FAZ, SSO, SDS, etc
BTW, send an email to: ftrat@Tradestation.com
and ou can request a refund for commissions for today and yesterday
ftrat@tradestation.com
Posted by rgoodwin on 23rd of Apr 2009 at 03:36 pm
matt, the email rejected - user unknown.
ftrad@tradestation.com[mailto: ftrad@tradestation.com]
Posted by matt on 23rd of Apr 2009 at 03:47 pm
ftrad@tradestation.com[mailto: ftrad@tradestation.com]
Matt, Thanks. Mine pretty much
Posted by rgoodwin on 23rd of Apr 2009 at 03:30 pm
Matt, Thanks. Mine pretty much cleared up late in the morning - just a few minor troubles. I did have the chart problems all day yesterday though.
thanks for that asddress, Matt.
Posted by Michael on 23rd of Apr 2009 at 03:22 pm
thanks for that asddress, Matt. Yesterday TS crashed, and when I restarted, I had lost all my active strategy charts. They just vanished. Had to re-make everything.
That's too bad. Do you
Posted by dbray740 on 23rd of Apr 2009 at 03:30 pm
That's too bad. Do you do backup archiving? (Go to File, then Backup/Restore). You can create a backup archive to put on a disc or email to yourself or whatever, and if everything is lost or if something gets messed up, you can restore everything like it was when you created the archive. (I also do it so I can put it all onto a second computer if my first one dies for some reason.) I do archiving about once a week and I email the file to myself. The process of creating an archive stops all backtesting though, so make sure you don't do it while you're in the middle of something important. If your computer has been doing backups automatically, you might try to restore a recent one, and that should have all of your strategy files as they were. (I'm posting on this on the blog so that others can benefit from it if things go wrong.)
daniel --thanks -- I had
Posted by Michael on 23rd of Apr 2009 at 03:37 pm
daniel --thanks -- I had it set to backup every night at 12:01, but when I went to restore I couldn't find those files. I was so fed up I just re-did the charts. I have a second hard-drive on my computer, so its easy enough for me to create an archive file as you suggest.................thanks.
Yes PLEASE do the back
Posted by matt on 23rd of Apr 2009 at 03:34 pm
Yes PLEASE do the back up every day, or at last once in a while; it only took one time for me to lose everything that forced me to start backing up so that I could just reinstall my strategies if TS crashed thus losing my stratieges and files
Position Sizing with the Mechanical Systems in Synch
Posted by blue on 20th of Apr 2009 at 12:21 pm
On days like today when all the leveraged ETF mechanical systems trigger in the same direction, it occurs to me that they are likely to all have similar outcomes, happy or grim. So my question to the gurus: What is a reasonable value for the maximum percentage of ones portfolio to have invested in the five mechanical trades? TIA
blue -- good you're diversified
Posted by Michael on 20th of Apr 2009 at 02:13 pm
blue -- good you're diversified among five. the systems are profitable, so Robin is right -- put into them as much capital as you can handle without becoming emotionally concerned with what they do on any particular day or week. If it bums you out when they lose, make your bets smaller. The old Jesse Livermore line -- sell till you can sleep.
The old Jesse Livermore line
Posted by matt on 20th of Apr 2009 at 02:27 pm
The old Jesse Livermore line -- "sell till you can sleep"
lol so true
Thanks Matt, Michael, rgoodwin, and CWA
Posted by blue on 20th of Apr 2009 at 04:41 pm
I truly appreciate your insights and the link to the PDF file.
FWIW I placed 3% ( of total portfolio) in each of the QID, SDS and SKF mechanical system triggers and 2% in each of the two SRS triggers, for a total allocation of 12.6% of my portfolio. I sold all of SKF at the close for a 5.8% profit and kept 1/2 % positions overnight of the others (i.e. sold 3/4 QID and SDS and 5/6 SRS), keeping these smaller swing positions in view of Matt's Watch list picks having triggered. Also holding some EEV from last week which has now also broken out and is showing a 5.8% gain.
Overall a spectacular day.
And as for Jesse Livermore's adage, I knew I had something wrong, I've been drinking increasing doses of a nice red wine till I can get to sleep!
Blue
Posted by rgoodwin on 20th of Apr 2009 at 05:12 pm
Nice post. It's when you plan your trades and can do it without emotion or fear or greed that you will become, gradually, a better trader, better in terms of success. Try to start planning maybe the night before or first thing in the morning if that's better what you want to do next time you trade. Having this plan, along with your escape hatches identified, will allow you to just relax and trade. I've personally been working on this real hard and it's amazing the difference it makes in trading. I'm not feeling like I missed someting or HAVE TO GET IN OR OUT, etc. If you are a good technical trader, then set up the mechanicals with x percent and go about doing technical trades with more. Gradually you will be sufficiently trading enough money in a manageable number of positions to be happy. Make a plan, stick with it, and you can be successful.
Blue
Posted by rgoodwin on 20th of Apr 2009 at 01:02 pm
You should do some reading on this subject. One book I am getting some good insight from is Van Tharp - Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom. It focuses on just this very subject. Large book to read - but pretty decent. It's very difficult for anyone to advise how much you should put into any one trade. Not only that - you need to know your risk tolerance. If you make your trades based on an expected GAIN, that is just not the right mental mind set. You need to make trades knowing a loss CAN happen - and know your tolerance for such a loss such that it will not create an emotional reaction if it should go that way. A positive close also should not generate a euphoric reaction either. Although the mechanicals are all up nicely at the moment, they can, and have been known to totally reverse and close at a loss. Others here may have some different insight - this is just my personal 2 cents.
Thnks - nice touch - and CWA- also thanks - nice link!!
Posted by pki on 20th of Apr 2009 at 01:16 pm
EOM pki
A google search brought me
Posted by cwa82675 on 20th of Apr 2009 at 01:14 pm
A google search brought me to a pdf link of the entire book robin is referring to.
LINK
CWA
Posted by rgoodwin on 20th of Apr 2009 at 01:43 pm
Where were you before I spent money to buy it on Amazon!? LOL! nice Post - Thanks for that.
Nice summary robin
Posted by matt on 20th of Apr 2009 at 01:07 pm
Nice summary robin
Educational Video on Positions Sizing
Posted by blue on 20th of Apr 2009 at 12:28 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yX9DGYHA1Ng
Mechanical System
Posted by winter39 on 17th of Apr 2009 at 11:41 pm
I presume that the start of the day is 9:30 am, and EOD means 4 pm.?
Thank you for your diligence with these systems and sharing them with this community.
EMKR
Posted by steve101 on 17th of Apr 2009 at 03:11 pm
What is going on with alternative energy stock EMKR, which was a penny stock earlier in the day?
Mechanical Systems
Posted by geotex on 16th of Apr 2009 at 05:40 pm
You say NOT to include pre market and after hours trading in the systems. If the rcommended MA's are used to make trading decisions for normal hours based on crossovers after market or pre market, have you backtested this information on the course of price movements in normal market hours?
geotex, I'm not sure your
Posted by rgoodwin on 16th of Apr 2009 at 05:51 pm
geotex, I'm not sure your question makes sense but if a system states it needs to be set up to ONLY trade 9:30 - 4:00 then indeed that is how it was designed, optimized and backtested. Tell you what, set up a chart with the specified settings and time constraints. Run a report. Then change any setting to whatever makes you feel good. Run a report. Likely the second report is not going to look very good.
Everyone - so many questions on these systems are asked day in and day out. Matt has the patience of a saint and I think most folks using the systems have been very generous with help as well but at some point you gotta do some of your own work. If you are new to the blog, say so, and maybe patience will ensue, otherwise you have been here long enough to have caught the discussions and certainly know how to research on the blog. The SYSTEMS are just that - SYSTEMS - like your CAR engine - can you pull out the distributor and it keeps running? Not likely. Trade the systems as they are presented, and if you want to make changes, then go ahead and do your testing and make them - these are not the only systems that can be run, you just need to do some of your own homework.
Setups
Posted by zach06 on 9th of Apr 2009 at 11:37 am
When looking for a set up to get back in after the opening bell, must we wait for a crossover, or are we getting back in immediately where we left off at the EOD yesterday?
One question I did have
Posted by estelleoc on 9th of Apr 2009 at 11:35 am
One question I did have was this - is it the case that you don't open a position until the first cross over of the day?
E
One question I did have
Posted by estelleoc on 9th of Apr 2009 at 11:25 am
One question I did have was this - is it the case that you don't open a position until the first cross over of the day?
E
Mechanical System Profits
Posted by keymer on 8th of Apr 2009 at 02:46 pm
In last night's brief you published a list of profits. Can you please break out the results for long only EOD trading.
Keymer
There is nothing in the
Posted by rgoodwin on 8th of Apr 2009 at 03:32 pm
There is nothing in the standard reporting that will allow such a breakout. One would either need a long only program or would have to manually add up the long only results. Just wanted to let you know that your request is likely not going to be available unless Matt gets a lot of free time and get's very generous!
SSO EOD Mechanical
Posted by blue on 7th of Apr 2009 at 09:45 am
Looks like the SSO EMA's "kissed" but didn't acually cross on his am's gap down. I'm curious how the automated systems respond to this. Did anyone's system trigger a trade?
15 min SRS mechanical
Posted by blue on 6th of Apr 2009 at 11:21 am
Although the EMA's are not close to crossing, I take it the white dots are showing that there is a PSAR buy signal reversing the sell trend since yesterday mid-morning. I know this is not part of the system but seems to add support to the bearish short term direction of the market.
Blue, What I see .. I
Posted by cspirit on 6th of Apr 2009 at 11:29 am
Blue,
What I see .. I notice when dots are below on SRS is a small uptrend while when dots are above its a nice move down. I know its a mech. system and your correct you trade the system. I personal passed because I didn't like the current risk/reward for going long per the dots. A $1.50-$2.50 gain vs what I want to risk isn't what I'm looking for based on how LARGE swings have been with SRS.
Thanks for your thoughtful reply.
Posted by blue on 6th of Apr 2009 at 12:02 pm
Thanks for your thoughtful reply. I also did not go long SRS but the PSAR signal made me feel better about entering the two mechanical trades.
Incidentally, for members having difficulty getting QLD and SSO to short, you can try going long QID and SDS, respectively. I know this is not how the system was back tested but I have gotten qualitatively similar results with these substitutions. FWIW.
QLD just about to cross.
Posted by blue on 31st of Mar 2009 at 10:56 am
QLD just about to cross. Would someone who has this set up automatically please confirm when the trade triggers? TIA
you can see a live
Posted by bkout3 on 31st of Mar 2009 at 11:10 am
you can see a live chart from Matt's link above -- see "Mechancail" Systems Page Real Time
Thanks, I have indeed been
Posted by blue on 31st of Mar 2009 at 11:27 am
Thanks, I have indeed been following this. I was just curious about what price point the automatic system triggered at versus those of us who still trade manually. (I got in at 29.09)
Correction, I entered QLD at
Posted by blue on 31st of Mar 2009 at 11:32 am
Correction, I entered QLD at 27.9, FWIW
Looks like Mechanical SSO and
Posted by blue on 27th of Mar 2009 at 01:57 pm
Looks like Mechanical SSO and QLD have triggered short and SRS may be close to a long. Here we go.
SRS 6min mechanical system
Posted by littlemule on 27th of Mar 2009 at 02:09 pm
8 SMA crossed over 71 SMA at 13:18
You did a great job
Posted by littlemule on 27th of Mar 2009 at 02:20 pm
You did a great job with your page and explanations, Matt. My platform allows for 6 min charts as well. Traded QLD off your page yesterday which provides more flexibility!
SRS
Posted by ocracoke53 on 27th of Mar 2009 at 02:17 pm
Watching $DJR support at 100.70 when lost think you will see SRS crossover
silver light
Posted by breeze on 27th of Mar 2009 at 10:26 am
Matt: I tried to load silverlight on two different computors and it loads but I cannot get a page to open. Am I doin somethong wrong ? breeze
I had the same problem
Posted by jcswil on 27th of Mar 2009 at 10:47 am
I had the same problem and you need to turn off your firewall.
link
Posted by breeze on 27th of Mar 2009 at 11:38 am
Not sure what happened . It just started working. tks anyway :)
guys, regarding the link to
Posted by matt on 27th of Mar 2009 at 11:48 am
guys, regarding the link to those charts and the mechanical system ONLY use the links from this blog, I will deleting the links on last nights update sometime soon for security purposes
SSO question
Posted by padraigm on 26th of Mar 2009 at 11:37 am
Matt,
What is the bottom part of the SSO chart you hotlinked from BFC
Looks like a Stoch ?
Blue Line?
Thanks for your help.
Pat
EOD systems
Posted by whrains on 26th of Mar 2009 at 10:47 am
Hey Matt - I get the titles for your mechancal systems (in red) and a SIlverlight install logo. I've installed Silverlight but still no charts. (MAC system correct for Silverlight). Any ideas?
Thanks, WIlson
Mac OSX
Posted by cdjd on 26th of Mar 2009 at 10:51 am
I have been able to install silverlight on Mac (intel) must reboot Mac and restart Safari
CGJD
Posted by whrains on 26th of Mar 2009 at 11:13 am
I had used a PowerPC but I have an Intel laptop so I'll try it there -- thanks Wilson
Already Matt ... Real-Time Charts -
Posted by cspirit on 25th of Mar 2009 at 09:01 pm
Already Matt ... Real-Time Charts - Thanks
Matt, How do you read/use the
Posted by lsherrer on 25th of Mar 2009 at 12:56 pm
Matt,
How do you read/use the blue lines under volume on the live mechanical page?
don't worry about that, not
Posted by matt on 25th of Mar 2009 at 12:59 pm
don't worry about that, not sure what it is, looks like a MA on volume. I have to clean up the charts on the weekend, the MA's are the most important. PSAR and volume are good guidlelines
Well the systems have not
Posted by matt on 25th of Mar 2009 at 11:02 am
Well the systems have not triggered obviously, however it's nice to see that those charts are updating on their own directly on the page! that's so cool. However I want to change the format of the charts so that are easier to read, this is only a test, I'll clean it up when I have some time
EOD mechanical systems page - with real time dynamic charts
I love the live mechanical
Posted by lsherrer on 25th of Mar 2009 at 11:05 am
I love the live mechanical charts. Thanks Matt!
Amazing Matt and Steve. This
Posted by cmaslin on 25th of Mar 2009 at 10:20 am
Amazing Matt and Steve. This site keeps getting better. These charts will really help everyone stay on the same page and avoid quirky discrepencies among users with different platforms trying to determine if their line crossed or not.
Thanks.
One more suggestion is if you could add labels and parameters to the indicators for the benefit of those who have tradestation and are trying to run the chart locally as well.
EOD mechanical
Posted by alphahorn on 25th of Mar 2009 at 09:53 am
is there an overview of these charts for newcomers that explains what's on the charts? is it MACD at the bottom if so what settings, and what are the white dots?
thanks
here, the MACD has nothing
Posted by matt on 25th of Mar 2009 at 10:03 am
here, the MACD has nothing to do with it, was just on the chart
Mechanical Systems Page detailed explaination
Live Charts
Posted by slater0 on 24th of Mar 2009 at 09:48 pm
Matt, thank you very, very much for the new link.
Will Silverlight work with Mac?
Posted by gs on 24th of Mar 2009 at 08:07 pm
Mac and Silverlight
Posted by cdjd on 24th of Mar 2009 at 10:53 pm
I was abale to install silverlight on an MacIntel I no longer have a G4 Mac but I suspect it will install also,
Quiting Safari and relaunching it was all that was needed.
s I also installed it on Parallel Virutal XP (using IE . iIt just took a view more clicks of repetitive buttons "ok", "run", "continue" etc etc
Not with the Power PC
Posted by seadelight on 24th of Mar 2009 at 10:01 pm
Not with the Power PC chip. Maybe with the intel chip. It doesn't work with my G4. I'm subscribing to stockcharts.com.
gd
live charts
Posted by bkout3 on 24th of Mar 2009 at 06:17 pm
That's great Matt! Nice to have as a confirm even if we have our own set up. Any chance you could make the MA lines a lighter color? The blue one in particular is a little hard to see (at least on my monitor)
On behalf of those trading
Posted by algyros on 24th of Mar 2009 at 05:34 pm
On behalf of those trading the EOD systems, this is an incredible service. Now, if it isn't asking too much, and when you have the time, those of us who can't day trade would appreciate the same thing with the swing trade systems.
I can do the same
Posted by matt on 24th of Mar 2009 at 05:44 pm
I can do the same with the swing systems systems, however the swing systems also have a stop loss and profit targets. The stop loss and profit target cannot be put onto these charts!
However that's not a big deal, you can just calculate them yourself. For example the on the SRS 15 min swing system, there is a profit target of 21% and a Stop loss of 10%. In other words, when you enter the trade, you just have to manually set buy and sell stops. You exit the trade either when these stops are hit, or the MA's crossover again, what ever comes first.
Make sense?
how does this work for
Posted by dowjones4k on 24th of Mar 2009 at 06:03 pm
how does this work for single etf's? do you half the percents?
The stop and profit loss
Posted by algyros on 24th of Mar 2009 at 05:57 pm
The stop and profit loss complication makes a lot of sense. Again, you guys are the hardest working in the business, so if you can do this for your subscribers, it won't go unappreciated.
Thanks for the link Matt,
Posted by tomand1969 on 24th of Mar 2009 at 05:34 pm
Thanks for the link Matt, do you know what company/service offers 6 minute charts. I use TOS and they too only have 5 or 10 minute charts. Does Stockcharts offer 6 minute charts?
Live Charts
Posted by airstream on 24th of Mar 2009 at 05:34 pm
It's a beautiful thing ! Thanks Matt
Thank you Matt!
Posted by rojo on 24th of Mar 2009 at 05:44 pm
I just got in (car troubles) and saw the live charts. Thanks so much for taking the time tio do that.