Notice: You are viewing a delayed version of the trading community
Non-registered users see posts that are at least 3 days old. To access the latest content and participate in real-time discussions, please
log in
or
subscribe.
we believe there is sufficient headroom to represent a
significant opportunity set for Arm (see
belowfor initial TAM estimates). We see potential $288-538m
EBITDA for Arm (per 1 million chips shipped of a hypothetical CPU
ASIC chip) versus a best-case royalties-based business of $22-59m
today. Using a 20x P/E multiple for a chip-based business (vs an
idealised c.50x for an IP one), we could see 2-3x greater value
capture in the share price for Arm than today.
Arm Everywhere? The market believes Arm's progress is propped up
by SoftBank payments in licensing. And yet, excluding these
payments (and the recent associated rise in opex) it can be seen
that the underlying business is still growing well. Arm's expected
transition to design of standalone chiplets and complete SoCs we
think will be central to this event (24th March). We expect the
company to focus on the economics of this transition – perhaps
looking at the ASP ranges and GM% likely from such new designs (see
our deep dive piece
'Within Arm's Reach' for background on
what to expect) and the likelihood of super-sized royalties from
work done with SoftBank. We also expect first chip designs to be
announced at the event, which we think could include a two chiplet,
DPU design for a hyperscaler. Overall, we expect this event to
herald a large and growing TAM for Arm's ISA and new design
engineering capabilities across edge, cloud and physical AI.
AGQ - ProShares Ultra Silver - Chart Linkas I
commented yesterday, a simple mean reversion move on AGQ back to
the 9 EMA or 50 MA or 20 MA would be quite a % move if you can hold
some AGQ to those levels
No idea why it crashed from 5.31 to 4.99. No
earnings out yet. I was lucky enough to be short as usual and long
puts. Apparently RIG is buying Valaris 5.8
billion dollars an all stock deal.
Posted by timebandit on 8th of Feb 2026 at 09:39 pm
$NALOW reached a level that can mark at least a short-term low.
Often, not always: 4 out of 5 on this chart.
Note: With futures red this morning, should also note this could
flip back down and go lower like it did last March where circled.
Disclosure: I am not long or short the market, just sectors and
individual names. I closed my SPY position eod Friday
Posted by mrjasongill on 8th of Feb 2026 at 06:57 pm
Matt, I've been using
https://pickmytrade.io/on some stuff i've built
which takes tradingview signals and can connect to tradestation and
others...multiple accounts and not too expensive and I know of a
scalping system some guys are running their strategy through
https://my.clearedge.trading/which is a platform.
Posted by alvinjm27 on 8th of Feb 2026 at 02:55 pm
I wanted to share my experience with the GRAIL system specific
to the reversion to mean (R2M) trades. For context, I've been a
member for about a decade. I've been working with Matt privately on
his systems, both R2M as well as the KISS trend systems. For the
R2M, I have been focusing on the daily ES version which is the 1440
min MES chart (sticking with MES before going to the deep end of
the big boy's ES club). Matt has numerous other smaller time
frames, but for the time being, the daily is what works best for my
work/life situation. For the KISS trend, I like both the daily
(1440 min MES) ES system or a smaller timeframe 165 min ES system
KISS trend. For now, sticking with the daily 1440 min ES
version, again due to work/life balance.
Now on to real trades that I've taken (FYI, these are
Automated). The first R2M for 2026 triggered on MLK day(1/19), it
was the Trend Long for ES. I took 12 MES contracts (using Matt's ES
Pro Scale Out version) on the closing bar of the 19th. The market
sold off about 80 ES points for next day's candle (20th), which did
NOT trigger a second entry, but SPY did trigger long for a first
entry. I didn't want to disrupt the automation, so I decided not to
add to my position even though that would have proved to be the
right move (after the fact). The following day, 21st, the market
bounced and as you can see from the screenshot image, the system
scaled out 5 MES contracts (exact price is displayed on the
screenshot for each contract sold) before closing lower.Finally,
the 4th day, the remaining 7 MES contracts closed out as the market
bounced. 4 of the 7 MES contracts scaled out throughout the day
while 3 of the 7 contracts were closed out at CLOSE since the Trend
Long was showing an exit. Total profit ($1737.50).
The second R2M for 2026 triggered earlier this week, on 2/4. It
was also the Trend Long for ES. Again, I took 12 MES contracts on
the closing bar of the 4th (Automated, ES Pro Scale Out version).
The market sold off about 99 ES points for the next day's candle
(Feb 5th), however because this is the scale out version, the
market had bounced 19 ES points before the 99 points down. Well in
that 19 points up from the entry on the 4th, the Pro scale out had
taken 4 contracts off (only 8 remaining out of the 12 initial MES
contracts...see screenshot of image below). So for the closing bar
on the 5th (2nd day), ES did NOT trigger a second entry, but SPY
did trigger long with the QE BTS long for a first entry. This time,
I decided to manually add 4 contracts considering 4 were already
automatically closed out. I manually exited out of these 4
contracts with limit orders that were set at around the 2 and 3
EMAs (instead of holding them till the traded closed out). On the
6th (3rd day), the remaining 8 contracts closed out as the market
bounced HARD! 5 of the 8 contracts were scaled out on the way up,
and the final 3 contracts were closed out when the ES Trend Long
was closing out at the end of day. See screenshots for exact prices
of scale out and final 3 contracts closing. Total profit
($2071.25), but because I bought a few back manually, my profits
were higher, just shy of $3500.
I'm sharing this first to express my gratitude for Matt and his
hard work in creating these systems for BPT members. Thank you Matt
and your 75 IQ! For those that have been around for a while, and
those that are new to BPT, these two examples that are part of the
GRAIL system is just a nugget of wealth (pun intended) from BPT.
Matt has even more ideas to dial in the systems and trade
opportunities, so stay tuned!
Posted by quartermaster on 9th of Feb 2026 at 06:56 am
where can I learn more on how to set up something like this ? I
should take up Eric on his WhatsApp call offer to help me navigate
the systems. Technology !
As Matt mentioned on the weekend newsletter, The Grail system is
currently set up on Collective2.com (but not taking subscribers
yet, Matt has to verify some compliance info), here's the link
(system can be searched also via the website):
https://collective2.com/details/154372892
The details are still being finalized by basically the idea is
you would connect your Interactive Brokers or brokerage account and
it would mirror the trades. More details will be forthcoming.
Also, I am getting a lot of questions about the Combined
membership. That isn't ready yet; it is coming any day now,
as set up still needs to be done on the back end.
Notice: You are viewing a delayed version of the trading community
Non-registered users see posts that are at least 3 days old. To access the latest content and participate in real-time discussions, please log in or subscribe.
RIVN back testing
Posted by rahemphill2 on 9th of Feb 2026 at 10:10 am
no time to post pic, not fast enough yet in between patients. but check out 15 min on RIVN as well as CRWV.
ARM pulled back
Posted by matt on 9th of Feb 2026 at 09:41 am
ARM - Chart Link if you took some profits on Friday great! pullback today but otherwise noise
Update: ARM pulled back
Posted by matt on 9th of Feb 2026 at 04:00 pm
CAVA - Cava Group Inc. - Chart LinkCAVA continues to be very nice, no divergences even on 60 min, over time target would be the gap fill from Aug
CAVA 60 min - Cava Group Inc. - Chart Link
insane call Matt!
Posted by Sammy2008 on 9th of Feb 2026 at 04:04 pm
insane call Matt!
thanks man, and it still
Posted by matt on 9th of Feb 2026 at 04:06 pm
thanks man, and it still looks awesome, so no reason why this doesn't work higher over time.
ARM chip announcement would be huge
Posted by kalkgrun on 9th of Feb 2026 at 06:16 pm
we believe there is sufficient headroom to represent a significant opportunity set for Arm (see belowfor initial TAM estimates). We see potential $288-538m EBITDA for Arm (per 1 million chips shipped of a hypothetical CPU ASIC chip) versus a best-case royalties-based business of $22-59m today. Using a 20x P/E multiple for a chip-based business (vs an idealised c.50x for an IP one), we could see 2-3x greater value capture in the share price for Arm than today.
Update: ARM pulled back
Posted by matt on 9th of Feb 2026 at 01:01 pm
ARM - Chart Linkthere's a small open gap above to fill on ARM, but otherwise should work into that supply zone over time
ARM... Holding, could be painful,
Posted by auni on 9th of Feb 2026 at 03:49 pm
ARM... Holding, could be painful, but hold.
ARM... Yeppers
Posted by auni on 9th of Feb 2026 at 02:45 pm
ARM... Yeppers
3/24/26 Event Arm Everywhere? The market
Posted by kalkgrun on 9th of Feb 2026 at 02:50 pm
3/24/26 Event
Arm Everywhere? The market believes Arm's progress is propped up by SoftBank payments in licensing. And yet, excluding these payments (and the recent associated rise in opex) it can be seen that the underlying business is still growing well. Arm's expected transition to design of standalone chiplets and complete SoCs we think will be central to this event (24th March). We expect the company to focus on the economics of this transition – perhaps looking at the ASP ranges and GM% likely from such new designs (see our deep dive piece 'Within Arm's Reach' for background on what to expect) and the likelihood of super-sized royalties from work done with SoftBank. We also expect first chip designs to be announced at the event, which we think could include a two chiplet, DPU design for a hyperscaler. Overall, we expect this event to herald a large and growing TAM for Arm's ISA and new design engineering capabilities across edge, cloud and physical AI.
CAVA follow up
Posted by matt on 9th of Feb 2026 at 09:39 am
CAVA - Cava Group Inc. - Chart Linklogical pullback from the 200 MA, but otherwise has been a great trade out of Demand Zone and 50 MA
CAVA 60 min - Cava Group Inc. - Chart Link the confirmation was the 60 min wedge
CLF dump on earnings
Posted by matt on 9th of Feb 2026 at 09:38 am
CLF 2 - Chart Linkwas a setup that showed up on weekend, well that's now negated with that sharp move down on earnings
It's got the word Cliff
Posted by mla127 on 9th of Feb 2026 at 09:59 am
It's got the word Cliff in it's name ... probably for that reason ...
AGQ 2X Silver
Posted by matt on 9th of Feb 2026 at 09:37 am
AGQ - ProShares Ultra Silver - Chart Linkas I commented yesterday, a simple mean reversion move on AGQ back to the 9 EMA or 50 MA or 20 MA would be quite a % move if you can hold some AGQ to those levels
KOLD
Posted by rbreese on 9th of Feb 2026 at 09:35 am
Took very good gain 21.28 pre market.
Bitcoin pulled back some
Posted by matt on 9th of Feb 2026 at 09:22 am
Bitcoin Coin Zoom out - Chart Link note April lows is not resistance
Update: Bitcoin pulled back some
Posted by matt on 9th of Feb 2026 at 09:25 am
$BTCUSD - bitcoin daily 3 - Chart Link zoomed out
US Dollar smackdown from the 20 MA, slightly bounce on 10-Year
Posted by matt on 9th of Feb 2026 at 09:20 am
US Dollar Daily Big - Chart LinkI commented yesterday on the Dollar that it had a V bounce was due for at least a pullback
10-Year Treasury Note Yield - $TNX - Chart Link
KOLD
Posted by rbreese on 9th of Feb 2026 at 08:42 am
A bit surprised UNG acting so poorly with cold weather still around. Kold up from 15.97 to 21.06.
RIG
Posted by rbreese on 9th of Feb 2026 at 08:03 am
No idea why it crashed from 5.31 to 4.99. No earnings out yet. I was lucky enough to be short as usual and long puts. Apparently RIG is buying Valaris 5.8 billion dollars an all stock deal.
Over 100mm traded in RIG
Posted by shellson2 on 9th of Feb 2026 at 12:51 pm
Over 100mm traded in RIG thus far. Up 4%
$SPX weekly - note the
Posted by timebandit on 9th of Feb 2026 at 07:02 am
$SPX weekly - note the red volume bar last week, biggest volume since last April
$SPX McClellan Oscillator another one
Posted by timebandit on 9th of Feb 2026 at 06:59 am
$SPX McClellan Oscillator another one above the upper band
$NALOW reached extreme level
Posted by timebandit on 8th of Feb 2026 at 09:39 pm
$NALOW reached a level that can mark at least a short-term low. Often, not always: 4 out of 5 on this chart.
Note: With futures red this morning, should also note this could flip back down and go lower like it did last March where circled. Disclosure: I am not long or short the market, just sectors and individual names. I closed my SPY position eod Friday
Here is the chart to
Posted by timebandit on 9th of Feb 2026 at 06:56 am
Here is the chart to go with that post. Lost it when I edited it
$ADLINENYC above its upper band again
Posted by timebandit on 8th of Feb 2026 at 09:33 pm
$ADLINENYC - this one is above the upper band (again), Makes sense, I guess, with $NYAD above its upper band
Superbowl Technical Analysis of the Markets (Weekend Review) Feb 8th, 2026
Posted by matt on 8th of Feb 2026 at 05:35 pm
Youtube Super Bowl Weekend Newsletter Feb 8th, 2026 - watch in full 1080 resolution on tablet or desktop NOT your phone
PLEASE click the the Like Button, helps the Youtube Algorithm to get out stuff more visible - I appreciate the support!
Newsletter Super Bowl Feb 8th, 2026 Webpage Format - contains all the dynamic chart links
autotrade companies
Posted by mrjasongill on 8th of Feb 2026 at 06:57 pm
Matt, I've been using https://pickmytrade.io/on some stuff i've built which takes tradingview signals and can connect to tradestation and others...multiple accounts and not too expensive and I know of a scalping system some guys are running their strategy through https://my.clearedge.trading/which is a platform.
SPY daily
Posted by holmes on 8th of Feb 2026 at 04:55 pm
SPY daily
Posted by holmes on 12th of Feb 2026 at 08:43 pm
hasn't even reached the neckline yet. Look out below...
Neckline? Hard pressed to see
Posted by john9o9 on 13th of Feb 2026 at 08:35 am
Neckline? Hard pressed to see a head and shoulders? Maybe more of a channel if it makes a difference.
Maybe a weak inverse?
Posted by john9o9 on 13th of Feb 2026 at 09:00 am
I wanted to share my
Posted by alvinjm27 on 8th of Feb 2026 at 02:55 pm
I wanted to share my experience with the GRAIL system specific to the reversion to mean (R2M) trades. For context, I've been a member for about a decade. I've been working with Matt privately on his systems, both R2M as well as the KISS trend systems. For the R2M, I have been focusing on the daily ES version which is the 1440 min MES chart (sticking with MES before going to the deep end of the big boy's ES club). Matt has numerous other smaller time frames, but for the time being, the daily is what works best for my work/life situation. For the KISS trend, I like both the daily (1440 min MES) ES system or a smaller timeframe 165 min ES system KISS trend. For now, sticking with the daily 1440 min ES version, again due to work/life balance.
Now on to real trades that I've taken (FYI, these are Automated). The first R2M for 2026 triggered on MLK day(1/19), it was the Trend Long for ES. I took 12 MES contracts (using Matt's ES Pro Scale Out version) on the closing bar of the 19th. The market sold off about 80 ES points for next day's candle (20th), which did NOT trigger a second entry, but SPY did trigger long for a first entry. I didn't want to disrupt the automation, so I decided not to add to my position even though that would have proved to be the right move (after the fact). The following day, 21st, the market bounced and as you can see from the screenshot image, the system scaled out 5 MES contracts (exact price is displayed on the screenshot for each contract sold) before closing lower.Finally, the 4th day, the remaining 7 MES contracts closed out as the market bounced. 4 of the 7 MES contracts scaled out throughout the day while 3 of the 7 contracts were closed out at CLOSE since the Trend Long was showing an exit. Total profit ($1737.50).
The second R2M for 2026 triggered earlier this week, on 2/4. It was also the Trend Long for ES. Again, I took 12 MES contracts on the closing bar of the 4th (Automated, ES Pro Scale Out version). The market sold off about 99 ES points for the next day's candle (Feb 5th), however because this is the scale out version, the market had bounced 19 ES points before the 99 points down. Well in that 19 points up from the entry on the 4th, the Pro scale out had taken 4 contracts off (only 8 remaining out of the 12 initial MES contracts...see screenshot of image below). So for the closing bar on the 5th (2nd day), ES did NOT trigger a second entry, but SPY did trigger long with the QE BTS long for a first entry. This time, I decided to manually add 4 contracts considering 4 were already automatically closed out. I manually exited out of these 4 contracts with limit orders that were set at around the 2 and 3 EMAs (instead of holding them till the traded closed out). On the 6th (3rd day), the remaining 8 contracts closed out as the market bounced HARD! 5 of the 8 contracts were scaled out on the way up, and the final 3 contracts were closed out when the ES Trend Long was closing out at the end of day. See screenshots for exact prices of scale out and final 3 contracts closing. Total profit ($2071.25), but because I bought a few back manually, my profits were higher, just shy of $3500.
I'm sharing this first to express my gratitude for Matt and his hard work in creating these systems for BPT members. Thank you Matt and your 75 IQ! For those that have been around for a while, and those that are new to BPT, these two examples that are part of the GRAIL system is just a nugget of wealth (pun intended) from BPT. Matt has even more ideas to dial in the systems and trade opportunities, so stay tuned!
where can I learn more
Posted by quartermaster on 9th of Feb 2026 at 06:56 am
where can I learn more on how to set up something like this ? I should take up Eric on his WhatsApp call offer to help me navigate the systems. Technology !
Grail System on Collective2.com
Posted by EricK on 9th of Feb 2026 at 05:01 pm
As Matt mentioned on the weekend newsletter, The Grail system is currently set up on Collective2.com (but not taking subscribers yet, Matt has to verify some compliance info), here's the link (system can be searched also via the website): https://collective2.com/details/154372892
The details are still being finalized by basically the idea is you would connect your Interactive Brokers or brokerage account and it would mirror the trades. More details will be forthcoming. Also, I am getting a lot of questions about the Combined membership. That isn't ready yet; it is coming any day now, as set up still needs to be done on the back end.
SPY vs RSP equal weighted
Posted by matt on 8th of Feb 2026 at 02:51 pm
Compare SPY vs RSP Equal - Chart Link
Compare SPX vs SPXE RSP ratio - Chart Link
Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF/SPDR S&P 500 ETF (RSP:SPY) - Chart Link
Prime Book: US Single Stocks (Source Goldman Sachs)
Posted by steve on 8th of Feb 2026 at 01:44 pm