Posted by DigiNomad on 27th of Sep 2023 at 12:31 pm
Steve, I believe each of these bottoms and subsequent V
recoveries had one very important thing in common - massive
stimulus / liquidity announced by the Fed right when things seemed
like they were going to fall off a cliff...probably should have
fallen further but you can't fight the fed and they came in guns
blazing in each of these cases. If it takes the Fed to create
the meaningful bottoms and V recoveries that we've become
accustomed to, what are the chances that the Fed has a market
rescue program teed up now....especially considering that their
previous actions contributed to inflation that's still a big
problem? The talking heads on CNBC seem 100% in agreement
about a 4th quarter rally....it seems to only be a question if it's
the rip your face of type rally, or just a measly 5 to 6 percent.
With everyone on the same side of the boat, I can imagine it
going the other way. Fundamentals matter when the fed isn't
stimulating...that's why it
could bedifferent this time, IMO.
Posted by mastermind on 26th of Sep 2023 at 06:41 pm
Dilemma - sell stocks that violate their STS or hold since we
are getting 2nd and 3rd entries on reversion to mean systems,
meaning that there will probably be better exit opportunities. For
the most part I am selling anyway just to try to foster good
discipline, all while buying into UPRO for the RTM rebound.
STS stops in my IRA today were BRO, EMR, GE, IRM and
OKE.
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Sep 2023 at 07:15 pm
1. Naked puts = stock replacement strategy
2. Sell put spreads (especially in an iRA where you might not
be able to be naked short)
3. Buy call spreads and sell stock. Defined risk that way.
*This is all assuming you will have short term capital gains
either way. If you're close to long term threshold then it
gets more complicated.
Risk reversal might also be a good play here: sell a put to
finance a call.
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Sep 2023 at 07:12 pm
They can't alienate ALL their biggest donors. Apple won't
even let a video going to an Android phone to be sent in normal
resolution. It looks like you're getting a video from the early
2000's. But, damn they have deep pockets when it comes to
supporting the DNC.
Yes my wife uses iPhone and I made her install WhatsApp because
she would text me videos of the kids all the time and it would just
be a blurry mess, so WhatsApp fixed that.
Publicly Apple will tell you that supporting RCS messaging is
simply not a priority for them at this time, however internal
documents from Discovery when fortnite sued them a couple years ago
showed internal communication discussion inside Apple that they
think not supporting RCS keeps their customers from going over to
Android and also creates a peer pressure to Android users to switch
to iphone because friends give them shit over group chat.
Heck even my 12-year-old daughter who uses my previous Android
phone gets flack from her friends who have iPhones saying why don't
you get an iPhone we don't like group texting you creating a peer
pressure
Posted by elementsix on 26th of Sep 2023 at 11:56 pm
new trades today, here's part of an email I'll be sending out -
and see attached table showing the new entries. Looks like we'll be
at 10 total entries from various systems, the most I've seen at one
time I think is 15 or 13 and it was only for a couple days.
Otherwise the number of entries is getting up there but still
below a lot of those really deep sell offs where more sub systems
were triggering with higher number. Again as I discussed the other
day, you either take them all, or you limit the number of entries
by setting a limit such as 8 or 10, whatever fits you. Or if SPY
and ES happen to have the same entry on the same sub system on the
same day - only do one of the entries not both. Again I just
report what they are doing, they follow and do what fits you
This is an alert about BPT Mechanical Systems:
KISS trend following systems on the indexes have been out and in
the safety of cash as you know.
More mean reversion systems trades today. Kind of a pucker trade
as the systems scale in, haven't seen that in a while, but this is
typical of the mean reversion systems over the years, at times they
scale in and take some heat before the inevitable mean reversion
bounce. I simply report what the sub systems are doing, you choose
to follow them or not.
SPY mean reversion systems: 1. QE BTS 2nd will be taking a 2nd entry long. For website
I'll show it as $10K of SSO ETF
2. A new sub system is taking a 1st entry: CCI Divergence, I
will show as $10K of SPY ETF
ES mean reversion systems:ES does not close until 5 pm so
trades are not officially confirmed until that time, that said
here's what is likely to trigger
1. 2nd entry QE BTS - I'll show it as 4 MESZ23 contracts
2. 3rd entry Trend/Pullback - I'll show as 3 MESZ23
contracts
it's based on a very low spike on the CCI indicator such as
below -250, then price going lower while the CCI goes higher
creating a positive divergence. Also one of the shorter held trades
- average hold time is 4 days 9hrs
Got a 2 yr note today at 5.1%, treading very lightly.
Interesting that the 2yr has closed the gap on the short term
bills that yield around 5.4%. SNOXX money market is just over
5%.
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SPX Stats
Posted by steve on 27th of Sep 2023 at 10:06 am
The number of S&P500 stocks > 50 day MA is now only 12%.
Only worst readings in the last 5 years:
October 2022 Market lows
March 2020 Covid Lows
December 2018 Taper Tantrum
Steve, I believe each of
Posted by DigiNomad on 27th of Sep 2023 at 12:31 pm
Steve, I believe each of these bottoms and subsequent V recoveries had one very important thing in common - massive stimulus / liquidity announced by the Fed right when things seemed like they were going to fall off a cliff...probably should have fallen further but you can't fight the fed and they came in guns blazing in each of these cases. If it takes the Fed to create the meaningful bottoms and V recoveries that we've become accustomed to, what are the chances that the Fed has a market rescue program teed up now....especially considering that their previous actions contributed to inflation that's still a big problem? The talking heads on CNBC seem 100% in agreement about a 4th quarter rally....it seems to only be a question if it's the rip your face of type rally, or just a measly 5 to 6 percent. With everyone on the same side of the boat, I can imagine it going the other way. Fundamentals matter when the fed isn't stimulating...that's why it could bedifferent this time, IMO.
Can this be interpreted as
Posted by foody518 on 27th of Sep 2023 at 11:07 am
Can this be interpreted as being close to being a contrarian bullish indicator?
Yes - but now focus
Posted by steve on 27th of Sep 2023 at 11:20 am
Yes - but now focus on price for trigger in accordance with your style
Bought NG 4.11 Sold less
Posted by rbreese on 27th of Sep 2023 at 10:00 am
Bought NG 4.11 Sold less then a week ago 4.45
AAPL remains heavy early here
Posted by steve on 27th of Sep 2023 at 09:59 am
AAPL remains heavy early here
Catalyst Insider Buying Fund -
Posted by timebandit on 27th of Sep 2023 at 09:58 am
Catalyst Insider Buying Fund - monthly chart and still 3 trading days left in Sept
Crude Oil new highs
Posted by steve on 27th of Sep 2023 at 09:20 am
Crude Oil new highs
Crude boomer again
Posted by steve on 27th of Sep 2023 at 10:52 am
Crude boomer again
BTC bouncing
Posted by steve on 27th of Sep 2023 at 09:10 am
BTC bouncing
USA Durable Goods Orders (MoM)
Posted by steve on 27th of Sep 2023 at 08:31 am
USA Durable Goods Orders (MoM) For August 0.2% Vs -0.5% Est.; -5.6% Prior
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug) 0.4% vs 0.1% Est.
We still in the “good
Posted by shellson2 on 27th of Sep 2023 at 08:46 am
We still in the “good news is bad news” mode for the market ? Interpreting data is not at all what it used to be.
$CPCE was 1.19 last night
Posted by rbreese on 27th of Sep 2023 at 07:26 am
$CPCE was 1.19 last night and 5 day is .88. Near extreme FEAR levels.
Quick Market Summary
Posted by steve on 27th of Sep 2023 at 06:28 am
https://www.investing.com/news/economy/futures-higher-senate-unveils-funding-deal--whats-moving-markets-3183781
investing.com
403 Forbidden
SPY
Posted by steve on 27th of Sep 2023 at 06:14 am
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p97507861013&a=351267209&r=1695809552471&cmd=print
stockcharts.com
SPY | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
Create advanced interactive price charts for SPY, with a wide variety of chart types, technical indicators, overlays, and annotation tools.
Europe
Posted by steve on 27th of Sep 2023 at 04:38 am
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/european-stock-futures-mixed-german-gfk-consumer-climate-slips-lower-3183635
investing.com
403 Forbidden
I drew this ES channel
Posted by steveo on 26th of Sep 2023 at 09:38 pm
I drew this ES channel in Mid August, and now it is back in play, bouncing up off the backtest. Amazing, havent looked at ES in weeks.
Nice job man, I'm always
Posted by matt on 26th of Sep 2023 at 09:47 pm
Nice job man, I'm always amazed how price respects those extended trend lines
Tuesday Newsletter
Posted by steve on 26th of Sep 2023 at 07:23 pm
Tuesday Newsletter
Dilemma - sell stocks that
Posted by mastermind on 26th of Sep 2023 at 06:41 pm
Dilemma - sell stocks that violate their STS or hold since we are getting 2nd and 3rd entries on reversion to mean systems, meaning that there will probably be better exit opportunities. For the most part I am selling anyway just to try to foster good discipline, all while buying into UPRO for the RTM rebound. STS stops in my IRA today were BRO, EMR, GE, IRM and OKE.
1. Naked puts = stock
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Sep 2023 at 07:15 pm
1. Naked puts = stock replacement strategy
2. Sell put spreads (especially in an iRA where you might not be able to be naked short)
3. Buy call spreads and sell stock. Defined risk that way.
*This is all assuming you will have short term capital gains either way. If you're close to long term threshold then it gets more complicated.
Risk reversal might also be a good play here: sell a put to finance a call.
COST trading lower in after
Posted by steve on 26th of Sep 2023 at 04:55 pm
COST trading lower in after hours
KISS systems
Posted by matt on 26th of Sep 2023 at 04:36 pm
On the basket only URA, TSLA, XLE are still long
https://breakpointtrades.com/sts_table/?search=BPT_basket
Amazon sued by the FTC
Posted by morton7 on 26th of Sep 2023 at 04:24 pm
Amazon sued by the FTC and 17 states in landmark antitrust case
Good timing Lina Khan! Kick
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Sep 2023 at 07:19 pm
Good timing Lina Khan! Kick em while they're down. Glad I'm short.
now sue AAPL to support
Posted by matt on 26th of Sep 2023 at 04:36 pm
now sue AAPL to support RCS for Android
They can't alienate ALL their
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Sep 2023 at 07:12 pm
They can't alienate ALL their biggest donors. Apple won't even let a video going to an Android phone to be sent in normal resolution. It looks like you're getting a video from the early 2000's. But, damn they have deep pockets when it comes to supporting the DNC.
Yes my wife uses iPhone
Posted by matt on 26th of Sep 2023 at 07:50 pm
Yes my wife uses iPhone and I made her install WhatsApp because she would text me videos of the kids all the time and it would just be a blurry mess, so WhatsApp fixed that.
Publicly Apple will tell you that supporting RCS messaging is simply not a priority for them at this time, however internal documents from Discovery when fortnite sued them a couple years ago showed internal communication discussion inside Apple that they think not supporting RCS keeps their customers from going over to Android and also creates a peer pressure to Android users to switch to iphone because friends give them shit over group chat.
Heck even my 12-year-old daughter who uses my previous Android phone gets flack from her friends who have iPhones saying why don't you get an iPhone we don't like group texting you creating a peer pressure
Posted by elementsix on 26th of Sep 2023 at 11:56 pm
You couldn't pay me to
Posted by DigiNomad on 27th of Sep 2023 at 01:02 am
You couldn't pay me to use an iphone...even if free. In fact, someone gave me one a few years back. I put it in a drawer and haven't seen it since.
YES!!
Posted by johnny2012 on 26th of Sep 2023 at 05:27 pm
YES!!
COST was up initially on earnings, now down
Posted by matt on 26th of Sep 2023 at 04:23 pm
mean reversion systems trades
Posted by matt on 26th of Sep 2023 at 03:47 pm
new trades today, here's part of an email I'll be sending out - and see attached table showing the new entries. Looks like we'll be at 10 total entries from various systems, the most I've seen at one time I think is 15 or 13 and it was only for a couple days. Otherwise the number of entries is getting up there but still below a lot of those really deep sell offs where more sub systems were triggering with higher number. Again as I discussed the other day, you either take them all, or you limit the number of entries by setting a limit such as 8 or 10, whatever fits you. Or if SPY and ES happen to have the same entry on the same sub system on the same day - only do one of the entries not both. Again I just report what they are doing, they follow and do what fits you
This is an alert about BPT Mechanical Systems:
KISS trend following systems on the indexes have been out and in the safety of cash as you know.
More mean reversion systems trades today. Kind of a pucker trade as the systems scale in, haven't seen that in a while, but this is typical of the mean reversion systems over the years, at times they scale in and take some heat before the inevitable mean reversion bounce. I simply report what the sub systems are doing, you choose to follow them or not.
SPY mean reversion systems:
1. QE BTS 2nd will be taking a 2nd entry long. For website I'll show it as $10K of SSO ETF
2. A new sub system is taking a 1st entry: CCI Divergence, I will show as $10K of SPY ETF
ES mean reversion systems:ES does not close until 5 pm so trades are not officially confirmed until that time, that said here's what is likely to trigger
1. 2nd entry QE BTS - I'll show it as 4 MESZ23 contracts
2. 3rd entry Trend/Pullback - I'll show as 3 MESZ23 contracts
Would you please post the
Posted by jhbernstein on 26th of Sep 2023 at 04:00 pm
Would you please post the CCI div. trading summary when you have a chance?
It's been a while since that signal has triggered.
tyia
it's based on a very
Posted by matt on 26th of Sep 2023 at 04:12 pm
it's based on a very low spike on the CCI indicator such as below -250, then price going lower while the CCI goes higher creating a positive divergence. Also one of the shorter held trades - average hold time is 4 days 9hrs
tyvm
Posted by jhbernstein on 26th of Sep 2023 at 04:43 pm
tyvm
Got a 2 yr note
Posted by jared95 on 26th of Sep 2023 at 03:40 pm
Got a 2 yr note today at 5.1%, treading very lightly. Interesting that the 2yr has closed the gap on the short term bills that yield around 5.4%. SNOXX money market is just over 5%.