Really losing its upside gains with WTI up 7.75 percent. 

GDX 30m/60m/Daily

Matt looks like you were right on XLE lower high  and stopped   at a gap. 

The thesis isn’t that Palantir disappears, it’s that its ceiling lowers. Defense and intelligence remain nearly untouchable: air-gapped environments, classification requirements, and deep government relationships create barriers no commercial AI vendor can easily clear. Peter Thiel’s network and Alex Karp’s willingness to work on weapons systems where others won’t is a genuine differentiator. Palantir’s national security business is durable. Its commercial ambitions are where Claude is an existential pressure.

SATS- Setting up for C&H?

celc   ---getting close to a b/o    but a big spread between bid and ask

$SPX 15m 

APD- Trying for that breakout again.

Covered 6.66. 

GLD/SLV 

INTC - Chart Link

USO crude oil - United States Oil Fund, LP - Chart Link bounced back, but unless things unravel should form a lower high technically

AAOI - Applied Optoelectronics Inc. - Chart Link

Shorted 6.79 this a.m. 

ACLS - Axcelis Technologies, Inc. - Chart Link

ACLS Weekly - Axcelis Technologies, Inc. - Chart Link nice weekly

The S&P 500 triggered a rare technical event yesterday, gapping above both its 50D and 200D moving averages simultaneously.  Since 1950, this specific signal has occurred only four times. In every instance, the index faced significant pullbacks shortly after. The average three month drawdown following the signal is -9.51%, with the worst three month drawdown reaching - 12.92% during 2018.

The SPY has opened above both its 50 and 200 DMA’s while closing below both the day prior just three other times,
Those three period saw IMMEDIATE declines of -13%, -16%, and -13% over the next few weeks.

Case 1 April 2001 – 13% decline
Case 2 July 2002 -16% decline
Case 3 May 2008 -13% decline

What do you notice about these dates?
All occurred within conspicuous, undeniable Bear Markets.

If Trump gets full denuclearization — stockpile surrendered, Natanz and Fordow dismantled, enrichment ended — then you could imagine letting Iran claim some version of strait sovereignty. Ugly for the GCC, ugly for Europe, but defensible.

But if Iran keeps enrichment, which their 10-point plan explicitly demands, then you cannot also give them the strait. A nuclear-capable Iran with a toll booth on 20% of the world’s oil is not a concession. It’s capitulation. You can trade one for the other. You can’t keep both.

As opposed to purely financial securities like stocks, the commodity futures curve represents the balance between physical buyers and physical sellers across time.
When the front trades above the back, holders of inventory are being pulled to sell today rather than store for tomorrow. Every day in backwardation, the system gets thinner. Barrels come out of tanks, buffers shrink, spare capacity drains. The clock isn't just ticking toward resolution. It's ticking toward depletion. Peace on day 14 of this ceasefire starts from a worse position than peace on day 1, even with zero additional damage. And when inventories hit the floor, prices stop being linear. That's when the math breaks.

But the clock only runs one direction. It can price resolution faster. It cannot undo what’s already been destroyed.
Ras Laffan, the world’s largest LNG export facility, took drone strikes that knocked 17% of Qatar’s export capacity offline. Repair timeline: three to five years.

The Saudi East-West pipeline was hit hours before the deal. Main pressurization and pumping station likely damaged. Yanbu flows limited. That was the Plan B.
Israel struck the Xinjiang-Iran railway corridor at Kashan, China’s terrestrial alternative for trading crude oil while avoiding Hormuz. First direct attack on Chinese infrastructure in the war.

Hormuz can’t just be open to some ships. It needs at least 10 million barrels per day passing through, at least 50% of pre-war capacity. Even with every theoretical offset firing, there’s still a 6 million barrel per day gap.

Crude got smoked. Corn barely moved. That’s the cascade in one chart. Oil reprices on headlines. Agricultural calendars don’t. Urea is still at $700. The USDA’s smallest planned wheat crop since 1919 doesn’t reverse because two diplomats shook hands. Farmers who couldn’t afford fertilizer in March aren’t retroactively applying it in April because someone in Islamabad said “ceasefire.”

I saw some stat but haven't searched to confirm (maybe somebody here has better and quicker accessible data) that when the SP gaps above both the 50 and 200, the SP saw immediate declines of 13, 16 and 13% - only happened 3 times.  Can anybody confirm?

1) OIL– Big time bullish signal for WTI to hold @Hedgeye immediate-term TRADE Signal Support of $93 yesterday and now the TRR (top-end of the Risk Range™ Signal) is all the way up at $116.99 (i.e. a higher Cycle High for #Quad3), so I bought more Oil and Energy Stocks (XOP) into the close yesterday after being patient and waiting for the day’s shorter-term Signals to confirm.

2) USD– Bought a bunch of US Dollars while shorting more Yens (Long YCS if you can only do Long Only) yesterday A) because USD Index was nearing the LRR (low-end of Risk Range™ Signal), B) confirming Bullish TREND and C) we have a pending CPI report that’s going to be a major re-acceleration of at least +100bps month-over-month; still Short Bitcoin with a -0.83 TRADE Correlation to USD.

3) Global Equities– Pretty much what The Signals expected with all major Equity markets showing only red never mind any follow-through – Japan -0.7% after printing the worst #Quad3 Slowdown in Consumer Confidence since the dark days of COVID! My largest European Short is Germany (DAX opens down -1.3%) and my largest Country Long remains Norway (NORW) which is up another +1.5% here to +7.5% in the last month.