SPX Stats

Posted by steve on 27th of Sep 2023 at 10:06 am

The number of S&P500 stocks > 50 day MA is now only 12%. 

Only worst readings in the last 5 years: 

October 2022 Market lows 

March 2020 Covid Lows

 December 2018 Taper Tantrum

Steve, I believe each of

Posted by DigiNomad on 27th of Sep 2023 at 12:31 pm

Steve, I believe each of these bottoms and subsequent V recoveries had one very important thing in common - massive stimulus / liquidity announced by the Fed right when things seemed like they were going to fall off a cliff...probably should have fallen further but you can't fight the fed and they came in guns blazing in each of these cases.  If it takes the Fed to create the meaningful bottoms and V recoveries that we've become accustomed to, what are the chances that the Fed has a market rescue program teed up now....especially considering that their previous actions contributed to inflation that's still a big problem?   The talking heads on CNBC seem 100% in agreement about a 4th quarter rally....it seems to only be a question if it's the rip your face of type rally, or just a measly 5 to 6 percent.  With everyone on the same side of the boat, I can imagine it going the other way. Fundamentals matter when the fed isn't stimulating...that's why it could bedifferent this time, IMO.  

Can this be interpreted as

Posted by foody518 on 27th of Sep 2023 at 11:07 am

Can this be interpreted as being close to being a contrarian bullish indicator?

Yes - but now focus

Posted by steve on 27th of Sep 2023 at 11:20 am

Yes - but now focus on price for trigger in accordance with your style 

Bought  NG  4.11  Sold less

Posted by rbreese on 27th of Sep 2023 at 10:00 am

Bought  NG  4.11  Sold less then a week ago 4.45 

AAPL remains heavy early here 

Posted by steve on 27th of Sep 2023 at 09:59 am

AAPL remains heavy early here 

Catalyst Insider Buying Fund -

Posted by timebandit on 27th of Sep 2023 at 09:58 am

Catalyst Insider Buying Fund - monthly chart and still 3 trading days left in Sept

Crude Oil new highs 

Posted by steve on 27th of Sep 2023 at 09:20 am

Crude Oil new highs 

Crude boomer again 

Posted by steve on 27th of Sep 2023 at 10:52 am

Crude boomer again 

BTC bouncing 

Posted by steve on 27th of Sep 2023 at 09:10 am

BTC bouncing 

USA Durable Goods Orders (MoM)

Posted by steve on 27th of Sep 2023 at 08:31 am

USA Durable Goods Orders (MoM) For August 0.2% Vs -0.5% Est.; -5.6% Prior

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug) 0.4% vs 0.1% Est.

We still in the “good

Posted by shellson2 on 27th of Sep 2023 at 08:46 am

We still in the “good news is bad news” mode for the market ? Interpreting data is not at all what it used to be.

$CPCE  was 1.19 last night

Posted by rbreese on 27th of Sep 2023 at 07:26 am

$CPCE  was 1.19 last night and 5 day is .88. Near extreme FEAR levels.

Quick Market Summary

Posted by steve on 27th of Sep 2023 at 06:28 am

https://www.investing.com/news/economy/futures-higher-senate-unveils-funding-deal--whats-moving-markets-3183781 

SPY

Posted by steve on 27th of Sep 2023 at 06:14 am

Europe

Posted by steve on 27th of Sep 2023 at 04:38 am

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/european-stock-futures-mixed-german-gfk-consumer-climate-slips-lower-3183635 

I drew this ES channel

Posted by steveo on 26th of Sep 2023 at 09:38 pm

I drew this ES channel in Mid August, and now it is back in play, bouncing up off the backtest.   Amazing, havent looked at ES in weeks.

Nice job man, I'm always

Posted by matt on 26th of Sep 2023 at 09:47 pm

Nice job man, I'm always amazed how price respects those extended trend lines

Tuesday Newsletter

Posted by steve on 26th of Sep 2023 at 07:23 pm

Dilemma - sell stocks that

Posted by mastermind on 26th of Sep 2023 at 06:41 pm

Dilemma - sell stocks that violate their STS or hold since we are getting 2nd and 3rd entries on reversion to mean systems, meaning that there will probably be better exit opportunities. For the most part I am selling anyway just to try to foster good discipline, all while buying into UPRO for the RTM rebound.  STS stops in my IRA today were BRO, EMR, GE, IRM and OKE. 

1. Naked puts = stock

Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Sep 2023 at 07:15 pm

1. Naked puts = stock replacement strategy
2. Sell put spreads (especially in an iRA where you might not be able to be naked short)
3. Buy call spreads and sell stock. Defined risk that way.
*This is all assuming you will have short term capital gains either way. If  you're close to long term threshold then it gets more complicated.
Risk reversal might also be a good play here: sell a put to finance a call. 

COST trading lower in after

Posted by steve on 26th of Sep 2023 at 04:55 pm

COST trading lower in after hours 

KISS systems

Posted by matt on 26th of Sep 2023 at 04:36 pm

On the basket only URA, TSLA, XLE are still long

https://breakpointtrades.com/sts_table/?search=BPT_basket 

Amazon sued by the FTC

Posted by morton7 on 26th of Sep 2023 at 04:24 pm

Amazon sued by the FTC and 17 states in landmark antitrust case

Good timing Lina Khan! Kick

Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Sep 2023 at 07:19 pm

Good timing Lina Khan! Kick em while they're down. Glad I'm short. 

now sue AAPL to support

Posted by matt on 26th of Sep 2023 at 04:36 pm

now sue AAPL to support RCS for Android

They can't alienate ALL their

Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Sep 2023 at 07:12 pm

They can't alienate ALL their biggest donors.  Apple won't even let a video going to an Android phone to be sent in normal resolution. It looks like you're getting a video from the early 2000's.  But, damn they have deep pockets when it comes to supporting the DNC. 

Yes my wife uses iPhone

Posted by matt on 26th of Sep 2023 at 07:50 pm

Yes my wife uses iPhone and I made her install WhatsApp because she would text me videos of the kids all the time and it would just be a blurry mess, so WhatsApp fixed that.

Publicly Apple will tell you that supporting RCS messaging is simply not a priority for them at this time, however internal documents from Discovery when fortnite sued them a couple years ago showed internal communication discussion inside Apple that they think not supporting RCS keeps their customers from going over to Android and also creates a peer pressure to Android users to switch to iphone because friends give them shit over group chat. 

Heck even my 12-year-old daughter who uses my previous Android phone gets flack from her friends who have iPhones saying why don't you get an iPhone we don't like group texting you creating a peer pressure 

Posted by elementsix on 26th of Sep 2023 at 11:56 pm

 You couldn't pay me to

Posted by DigiNomad on 27th of Sep 2023 at 01:02 am

 You couldn't pay me to use an iphone...even if free. In fact, someone gave me one a few years back. I put it in a drawer and haven't seen it since. 

YES!!

Posted by johnny2012 on 26th of Sep 2023 at 05:27 pm

YES!!

COST was up initially on earnings, now down

Posted by matt on 26th of Sep 2023 at 04:23 pm

mean reversion systems trades

Posted by matt on 26th of Sep 2023 at 03:47 pm

new trades today, here's part of an email I'll be sending out - and see attached table showing the new entries. Looks like we'll be at 10 total entries from various systems, the most I've seen at one time I think is 15 or 13 and it was only for a couple days.  Otherwise the number of entries is getting up there but still below a lot of those really deep sell offs where more sub systems were triggering with higher number. Again as I discussed the other day, you either take them all, or you limit the number of entries by setting a limit such as 8 or 10, whatever fits you. Or if SPY and ES happen to have the same entry on the same sub system on the same day - only do one of the entries not both.  Again I just report what they are doing, they follow and do what fits you

This is an alert about BPT Mechanical Systems:

KISS trend following systems on the indexes have been out and in the safety of cash as you know. 

More mean reversion systems trades today. Kind of a pucker trade as the systems scale in, haven't seen that in a while, but this is typical of the mean reversion systems over the years, at times they scale in and take some heat before the inevitable mean reversion bounce. I simply report what the sub systems are doing, you choose to follow them or not. 

SPY mean reversion systems:
1. QE BTS 2nd will be taking a 2nd entry long. For website I'll show it as $10K of SSO ETF
2. A new sub system is taking a 1st entry: CCI Divergence, I will show as $10K of SPY ETF

ES mean reversion systems:ES does not close until 5 pm so trades are not officially confirmed until that time, that said here's what is likely to trigger
1. 2nd entry QE BTS - I'll show it as 4 MESZ23 contracts
2. 3rd entry Trend/Pullback - I'll show as 3 MESZ23 contracts

Would you please post the

Posted by jhbernstein on 26th of Sep 2023 at 04:00 pm

Would you please post the CCI div. trading summary when you have a chance?

It's been a while since that signal has triggered.

tyia

it's based on a very

Posted by matt on 26th of Sep 2023 at 04:12 pm

it's based on a very low spike on the CCI indicator such as below -250, then price going lower while the CCI goes higher creating a positive divergence. Also one of the shorter held trades - average hold time is 4 days 9hrs

tyvm

Posted by jhbernstein on 26th of Sep 2023 at 04:43 pm

tyvm

Got a 2 yr note

Posted by jared95 on 26th of Sep 2023 at 03:40 pm

Got a 2 yr note today at 5.1%, treading very lightly.  Interesting that the 2yr has closed the gap on the short term bills that yield around 5.4%.  SNOXX money market is just over 5%.

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