US Private Payrolls Actual 172k (Forecast 68k, Previous 37k)
US Nonfarm Payrolls Actual 130k (Forecast 65k, Previous 50k)
NFP Benchmark Revisions Actual -862k (Forecast -825k, Previous -)
US Unemployment Rate Actual 4.3% (Forecast 4.4%, Previous 4.4%)

Possible timing on dropping a line.

Wild activity in UNG as weather begins to get milder across the country. 

PFE weekly...nice!

$CPCE closed above the upper band, fwiw

Tuesday's Newsletter

y XHB - Chart Link

NAIL - Chart Link

y IYR - Chart Link

10-Year Treasury Note Yield - $TNX - Chart Link

measured move = bounce but not done yet

took a short on the pasar sell signal - nice

head and shoulders playing out

Robinhood capped a record FY25 with a mixed Q4. Total revenue climbed 27% YoY to $1.28B, driven by surging Net Interest Income (+39%) and subscription growth. However, the 'Financial SuperApp' narrative hit a speed bump in crypto, where revenue fell 38%. Headline Net Income dropped 34% YoY to $605M, but this is noisy—Q4 2024 benefited from a massive $424M one-time tax/regulatory windfall. Adjusted for that, profitability remains robust, though the company is signaling an aggressive spending ramp (+18%) for 2026.

Despite the optical miss on Net Income (tax comp) and the crypto slump, the core brokerage and subscription engines are accelerating. The 58% growth in Gold subscribers validates the 'SuperApp' strategy.

While equity (+54%) and options (+41%) revenue surged, crypto acted as a significant drag, falling 38% YoY to $221M. This contradicts the broader industry narrative of a crypto resurgence and highlights Robinhood's exposure to retail sentiment volatility in this specific asset class.


After a year of disciplined cost control, Robinhood is pivoting to aggressive investment. Total operating expenses spiked 38% in Q4. While marketing and growth investments drive users, this breaks the trend of operating leverage outpacing revenue growth seen in previous quarters.

Robinhood Gold is arguably the most important metric for long-term valuation, and it is accelerating. Subscribers hit 4.2 million (+58% YoY), driving 'Other Revenue' up 109% to $96M. This recurring revenue stream dampens the volatility of trading fees.

High interest rates continue to benefit the bottom line. Net Interest Revenues grew 39% to $411M, driven by growth in interest-earning assets and securities lending. However, management noted a partial offset from 'lower short-term interest rates,' signaling this tailwind may peak if rate cuts accelerate.

Lyft closed FY25 with significant momentum. While headline Revenue (+3%) looks weak due to a one-time $168M legal/tax reserve charge, the underlying engine is accelerating: Gross Bookings grew 19% YoY, and Active Riders surged 18%—the fastest pace in years. The massive GAAP Net Income of $2.8B is an accounting anomaly driven by a $2.9B release of valuation allowances, but this is structurally bullish: it signals auditors and management are now certain of sustained future profitability. With a new $1B buyback authorization and FCF topping $1.1B, the capital return thesis is strengthening.

Looking past the noisy GAAP numbers (inflated by tax benefits) and the suppressed Revenue (hit by reserves), the core business is accelerating. Bookings growth is nearing 20%, rider acquisition is surging, and the buyback authorization shows confidence in cash flow.

Decelerating (Optical). Revenue grew only 3% YoY while Gross Bookings grew 19%. This massive divergence was caused by a $168M contra-revenue deduction related to legal/tax reserves. Without this item, revenue would have been $1.8B (+16% YoY), tracking closely with bookings. Investors must watch if these 'one-time' regulatory costs become a recurring pattern.

Stable/Positive. Lyft generated $1.12B in Free Cash Flow for FY25, up significantly from $766M in FY24. This cash generation engine enabled the Board to authorize an additional $1B share repurchase program. The company is successfully transitioning from a 'growth at all costs' cash burner to a shareholder yield compounder.

A-B-C measured move 

GLD/SLV/GDX 10m ... The miners telling the metals ... wake up ... you're going the wrong way 

Thinking about what Matt said in the newsletter about wave 3 being possibly done, and looking for a 4th wave pullback.

RIVN daily - Rivian Automotive Inc. - Chart Linkbounce stalled logically at the 20  day MA

RIVN Weekly - Rivian Automotive Inc. - Chart Linkthe long pullback since the Dec highs off supply zone pulled all the back to the weekly uptrend line where it found support

_SPX e 60 min a - Chart Linkagain logical pullback from that zone and downtrend line

_SPX g 15 min aa MA config - Chart Link

NAIL - Chart Link

y XHB - Chart Link

y IYR - Chart Link

GDX 10m ...  this will go up ... with ... or without the metals ... lol ...