I haven't noticed much discussion on the poor performance on the
mech systems today. I've lost 2.5-3% on the skf srs and faz.
Can anyone confirm similar results
It seems to me that discussing the performance of the mechanical
systems over a one-day period is like discussing a baseball
player's batting prowess based on one game. Even Ted Williams
went 0 for 4 every once in a while These systems are
statistical. They win and lose. It's just that they win
more than they lose, hence the spectacular results
My point is that their performance in a given day or week is
meaningless You need longer time spans to glean any useful
information about them
My point is whether I'm incorrect in my use of the system
since(as I said) there has been little discussion on this
subject especially since the losing % was unusually large. Your
presumption that I'm taking a one day performance as some kind of
norm is of course wrong.
Posted by rgoodwin on 24th of Jul 2009 at 02:53 pm
Mechanicals are not doing well today. I even have a couple I
trade other than what Matt has, and they too are struggling. What
amazed me this AM with the SRS 3 min, the MA's crossed and price
immediately reversed and TANKED but the fast MA just kept going up
before it finally started reacting to the price. Looking at the
chart - this is not the norm. This likely won't be a great day for
the systems - it happens - gotta hang in there.
Yep, systems not doing well today, that's how it goes.
however the 15 min systems are doing better,
no crosses on the 15 min
SRS or FAZ systems. Also, SKF 6 min did not
trigger. Only FAZ 1, and SRS 3 min and SSO 5/6 min
ARE YOU SURE THE SSO 5/6 MIN SYSTEMS TRIGEREDE TODAY. i HAVE
TRADE STATION AND THE SHORT HAS BEE ABOVE THE LONG ALL DAY?
CHECKED MY SETTINGS AND SEEM TO BE OK???
Posted by simon_says on 24th of Jul 2009 at 03:16 pm
I do not believe that all these gloomy posts re. mech system
losses etc., becomes the BPT forum. I think we are an exceptional
collection of disparate talents here and the collective mind of
this group is a terrible thing to waste.
The good majority here are swing traders, not purely day-trading
mechanoids! Could I ask those who life requires them to swing
trade, not daytrade, to refocus their trading horizons and work at
our next plan of attack for the month of August? Many missed this
rally (myself included), simply by being too bearish for too long.
I would welcome having the key pivot points posted as a sticky for
easy reference because I think the market is most likely now to
move at those pivots.
then you have not been playing watch list longs etc. You
guys need to make a trading plan every day. When things go
up, you naturally look for a pullback, when things sell off, you
naturally look for a bounce; it doesn't mean that you don't trade
the trend. Trade the trend. trade individual stocks
more than market indexes, etc
I too, have been slowly coming out of the paralyzed state of
mind myself. Since March I have been focusing on the
'pullback' and 'overbought' as my touchstones. I had allowed
my bearish view of the market (which I still hold) to affect my
perspective when trading. I developed an irrational bias
toward trading downtrends that would prevent me from entering into
perfectly logical trading positions because I repeatedly considered
it 'chasing the market for a quick trade'. Rather, I held out
in favor of a more 'solid' entry point for a swing trade during and
after those seemingly eminent pullbacks. The problem is of
course, the quick trade time frame turns out to be multi-days/weeks
of missed rally. Looking back, it is my fault for allowing myself a
bear bias in my decision making. You can still consider the
market as a bear market overall (I still do) but not let it
sabotage your daily trading decisions. I allowed my bear bias
to keep me from entering trades
despite the
fact that perfectly sound advice to the contrary was provided daily
on this site. fwiw.
Since we're all making confessionals now, I am a swing
trader (i.e. I look to hold for weeks to months) who has been
bearish all year. Consequently, I have lost 20% of my life's
savings this year, and finally gave up and closed out my remaining
shorts yesterday. It is very clear to me now there is an
orchestrated effort to pound bears into submission - this is far
more successful than the prior failed attempt at banning short
selling. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em - I am now long. The trend
will now be my friend.
Posted by kamineni321 on 24th of Jul 2009 at 09:27 pm
We short when we get a definite sell signal. Everybody
whoever shorts in uptrend will be forced to cover and that is how a
vicious circle. We have to wait till you see a definite
downtrend. Do not short in uptrend until you get a definite
downtrend signal. The individual investors loose their money
by going long in downtrend and going short in uptrend. The
trend goes in weeks and sometime monthes. Follow the
trend.
Just because some of us think it maybe the time to short FOR
WHAT EVER REASON... doesn't mean it's time. Send out your probes.
Test the market. Doubt the trend. Keep your stops tight. But, don't
look away. Cause that's when it will turn.
Posted by rgoodwin on 24th of Jul 2009 at 02:59 pm
Every now and then - third trade is the charm but the day is
getting short - doesn't look like either could achieve a third
cross today inless a move is very fast from here.
Ya, lost on the 1-MIN FAZ, but that's a more aggressive system,
the 15-MIN SRS came close, but did not give a signal. Think
I'll stick to that for a while.
statistically there has got to be times when a loss is expected.
I assume that it is more likely during bull and bear wars for
dominance of the market. Just an unsubstantiated opinion. In any
case persistence is the key. As the old saying goes : If at first
you don't make money try and try again. (and keep on smiling)
Mech systems
Posted by lees on 24th of Jul 2009 at 02:27 pm
I haven't noticed much discussion on the poor performance on the mech systems today. I've lost 2.5-3% on the skf srs and faz. Can anyone confirm similar results
Lee
It seems to me that
Posted by algyros on 24th of Jul 2009 at 04:27 pm
It seems to me that discussing the performance of the mechanical systems over a one-day period is like discussing a baseball player's batting prowess based on one game. Even Ted Williams went 0 for 4 every once in a while These systems are statistical. They win and lose. It's just that they win more than they lose, hence the spectacular results
My point is that their performance in a given day or week is meaningless You need longer time spans to glean any useful information about them
Mech systems
Posted by lees on 24th of Jul 2009 at 04:47 pm
My point is whether I'm incorrect in my use of the system since(as I said) there has been little discussion on this subject especially since the losing % was unusually large. Your presumption that I'm taking a one day performance as some kind of norm is of course wrong.
lees -- what's your question
Posted by Michael on 25th of Jul 2009 at 08:09 am
lees -- what's your question about your use of the systems?
I can confirm that --
Posted by Michael on 24th of Jul 2009 at 03:22 pm
I can confirm that -- what is there to discuss? 35 - 50% of the trades are losers.
Mechanicals are not doing well
Posted by rgoodwin on 24th of Jul 2009 at 02:53 pm
Mechanicals are not doing well today. I even have a couple I trade other than what Matt has, and they too are struggling. What amazed me this AM with the SRS 3 min, the MA's crossed and price immediately reversed and TANKED but the fast MA just kept going up before it finally started reacting to the price. Looking at the chart - this is not the norm. This likely won't be a great day for the systems - it happens - gotta hang in there.
Yep, systems not doing well
Posted by matt on 24th of Jul 2009 at 02:47 pm
Yep, systems not doing well today, that's how it goes.
however the 15 min systems are doing better, no crosses on the 15 min SRS or FAZ systems. Also, SKF 6 min did not trigger. Only FAZ 1, and SRS 3 min and SSO 5/6 min
MATT
Posted by RM686 on 24th of Jul 2009 at 03:14 pm
ARE YOU SURE THE SSO 5/6 MIN SYSTEMS TRIGEREDE TODAY. i HAVE TRADE STATION AND THE SHORT HAS BEE ABOVE THE LONG ALL DAY? CHECKED MY SETTINGS AND SEEM TO BE OK???
Dun think SSO 5/6 mins
Posted by gan_ on 24th of Jul 2009 at 02:57 pm
Dun think SSO 5/6 mins triggered; but SRS 3min and FAZ 1min are triggered twice each now; and look like both will be losers for now.
BPT Forum
Posted by simon_says on 24th of Jul 2009 at 03:16 pm
I do not believe that all these gloomy posts re. mech system losses etc., becomes the BPT forum. I think we are an exceptional collection of disparate talents here and the collective mind of this group is a terrible thing to waste.
The good majority here are swing traders, not purely day-trading mechanoids! Could I ask those who life requires them to swing trade, not daytrade, to refocus their trading horizons and work at our next plan of attack for the month of August? Many missed this rally (myself included), simply by being too bearish for too long. I would welcome having the key pivot points posted as a sticky for easy reference because I think the market is most likely now to move at those pivots.
Sorry for my rant, and back to trading.
Agreed...
Posted by pebs on 24th of Jul 2009 at 03:19 pm
couldn't have said it better.
I agree, I have been
Posted by straws on 24th of Jul 2009 at 03:53 pm
I agree, I have been completley paralyzed by the words "PULLBACK" and "OVERBOUGHT" since about March 15, 300 S&P points ago.
then you have not been
Posted by matt on 18th of Aug 2009 at 01:15 pm
then you have not been playing watch list longs etc. You guys need to make a trading plan every day. When things go up, you naturally look for a pullback, when things sell off, you naturally look for a bounce; it doesn't mean that you don't trade the trend. Trade the trend. trade individual stocks more than market indexes, etc
Right, 100% right. But remember... is
Posted by as2029 on 24th of Jul 2009 at 08:17 pm
Right, 100% right.
But remember... is very easy to say after and explain the past. when you see the history, is easy to say " was so easy and I so stupid".
August is next door. I think we need to be more mechanical and shot faster with the order. Don't think to much and shot.
Matt and Steve are excellent but we need to get the order and don't have time to think to much.
I have days asking for the order when the target is in place.....
I agree, I have been completley paralyzed by the words "PULLBACK" and "OVERBOUGHT" since about March 15, 300 S&P points ago.
"pullback" paralysis
Posted by billr on 24th of Jul 2009 at 04:59 pm
I too, have been slowly coming out of the paralyzed state of mind myself. Since March I have been focusing on the 'pullback' and 'overbought' as my touchstones. I had allowed my bearish view of the market (which I still hold) to affect my perspective when trading. I developed an irrational bias toward trading downtrends that would prevent me from entering into perfectly logical trading positions because I repeatedly considered it 'chasing the market for a quick trade'. Rather, I held out in favor of a more 'solid' entry point for a swing trade during and after those seemingly eminent pullbacks. The problem is of course, the quick trade time frame turns out to be multi-days/weeks of missed rally. Looking back, it is my fault for allowing myself a bear bias in my decision making. You can still consider the market as a bear market overall (I still do) but not let it sabotage your daily trading decisions. I allowed my bear bias to keep me from entering trades despite the fact that perfectly sound advice to the contrary was provided daily on this site. fwiw.
Since we're all making confessionals
Posted by sethbru on 24th of Jul 2009 at 05:19 pm
Since we're all making confessionals now, I am a swing trader (i.e. I look to hold for weeks to months) who has been bearish all year. Consequently, I have lost 20% of my life's savings this year, and finally gave up and closed out my remaining shorts yesterday. It is very clear to me now there is an orchestrated effort to pound bears into submission - this is far more successful than the prior failed attempt at banning short selling. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em - I am now long. The trend will now be my friend.
Capitulation
Posted by paige386 on 24th of Jul 2009 at 08:45 pm
I guess now that all of the shorts are capitulating it will be time to short again.
We short when we get
Posted by kamineni321 on 24th of Jul 2009 at 09:27 pm
We short when we get a definite sell signal. Everybody whoever shorts in uptrend will be forced to cover and that is how a vicious circle. We have to wait till you see a definite downtrend. Do not short in uptrend until you get a definite downtrend signal. The individual investors loose their money by going long in downtrend and going short in uptrend. The trend goes in weeks and sometime monthes. Follow the trend.
Just because some of us
Posted by cal1 on 24th of Jul 2009 at 09:47 pm
Just because some of us think it maybe the time to short FOR WHAT EVER REASON... doesn't mean it's time. Send out your probes. Test the market. Doubt the trend. Keep your stops tight. But, don't look away. Cause that's when it will turn.
Every now and then -
Posted by rgoodwin on 24th of Jul 2009 at 02:59 pm
Every now and then - third trade is the charm but the day is getting short - doesn't look like either could achieve a third cross today inless a move is very fast from here.
Mech systems
Posted by jtverr on 24th of Jul 2009 at 02:38 pm
Ya, lost on the 1-MIN FAZ, but that's a more aggressive system, the 15-MIN SRS came close, but did not give a signal. Think I'll stick to that for a while.
confirmed
Posted by cdjd on 24th of Jul 2009 at 02:52 pm
statistically there has got to be times when a loss is expected. I assume that it is more likely during bull and bear wars for dominance of the market. Just an unsubstantiated opinion. In any case persistence is the key. As the old saying goes : If at first you don't make money try and try again. (and keep on smiling)
I can confirm it. Craptastic
Posted by user32 on 24th of Jul 2009 at 02:34 pm
I can confirm it. Craptastic day so far. That's the drill though. You'll sometimes have days like this, or sets of days like this.