Posted by simon_says on 14th of Aug 2011 at 03:32 am
It's only death to those still bullish in this market. It's
golden to those who understand its importance. And since this
summer's H+S got serious mainstream coverage this "Death Cross"
will cause all CNBC to wet themselves. Definite self-fulfilling
prophecy.
OK, but then Matt & Steve need to update the description in
the Long Term Tools. There is is simply called Golden Cross. Maybe
it needs to be called PonR Cross (Point of no Return!)
As I type I see SPX and RUT have already crossed, SPY is very
close while NDX and DJIA are on target.
XLF (yes the frigging financials, who are both cause and thus
bellweather of this meltdown, broke way back in late June 2011).
This was serious heads-up.
I believe once XLF has retested 13.25, this breakdown
moves into Wave 3 downwards.
Posted by simon_says on 13th of Aug 2011 at 06:10 am
DAX and FTSE have already their golden cross. SPX looks
imminent. Who fancies being long? Seriously. The DAX didn't cross
in 2010 like the rest but this time it has.
Posted by simon_says on 8th of Aug 2011 at 06:16 pm
The financials were the harbringers of this present downturn,
preceding the SPX downwards and they have fully retraced all the
gains since July 2009. XLF must hold above 12 or else this
correction will metastasize into something far more serious.
Posted by simon_says on 4th of Aug 2011 at 06:32 pm
People have short memories. We have seen this before, in May
2010, at least in the VIX. The major difference here is in the SPX
MACD... If 1190 holds we have only a 50% retracement, the
financials would have had close to a 100% retracement.
Way too many people out there eager to say they timed the
start of GFC2, particularly as they completely mistimed GFC1 or got
burnt catching falling knives.
LONG-TERM forecasts for the Australian dollar are diverging,
with strategists forecasting the dollar will sit between US68¢ and
US90¢ in a year, highlighting global economic uncertainty.
Currency strategists are divided on whether global growth will
continue uninterrupted or if systemic risk still looms in
developing economies, particularly eastern Europe.
However, emerging market specialists say eastern European
economies are no longer at risk of default, but would struggle to
keep their currencies pegged to the strong euro.
Conflicting forecasts make it difficult for importers and
exporters to know when to lock in contract prices or hedge currency
trades.
Forex Group currency strategist Adam Wood believes the
Australian dollar will fall to US68¢ within eight months, triggered
by a wave of defaults through eastern European banks.
''I am 100 per cent confident they [eastern Europe] are in for a
very, very hard ride for a very long time,'' he said. ''There is
definitely going to be a depression or a severe recession.''
Falling turnover and rising unemployment in countries that have
recently joined the euro zone - Latvia, Poland, Hungary, Ukraine
and Estonia - would put pressure on businesses and households to
repay loans, Mr Wood said.
Most of these banks' creditors were based in Austria, Germany
and Switzerland, and if defaults started, these banks would need to
buy large amounts of US dollars to fund margin calls on US
dollar-denominated assets, which would push the greenback up.
He also forecast an associated decline in the sharemarket, with
the Dow Jones index falling to 4800 and the S&P/ASX 200 falling
to about 3200 next October or November.
The Dow closed at 9712.73 and the S&P/ASX 200 closed at 4643
on Friday.
Morgan Stanley executive director of investment management,
Timothy Drinkall, said the EU, regional banks and IMF had
co-ordinated support for the region. The imminent problem was
keeping the currencies of eastern European economies pegged to the
stronger euro.
''Working off the economic imbalances with a pegged exchange
rate is going to be harsh and prolonged,'' he wrote in an email to
businessday.
''Latvia is the focal point of this risk … if the Latvian peg
did break, I would expect contagion to hit most of the currencies
in the region.''
The Australian dollar would keep above US90¢ throughout the
second half of 2010, according to Westpac Bank currency strategist,
Jonathan Cavenagh.
''We are aware of the eastern Europe debt condition,'' he
said.
''[But ] it is difficult to forecast how that will unfold, and
what impact that will have.''
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SPX Death Cross with 50/200
Posted by simon_says on 17th of Aug 2011 at 01:13 am
SPX Death Cross with 50/200 SMA, no SPX Death Cross yet with 50/200 EMA.
Jury's out. Interesting to compare both system's behaviour. I expect this to be teased out a bit longer, so a short-term rally could be on the cards.
It's only death to those
Ominous Golden Cross in Euroland
Posted by simon_says on 14th of Aug 2011 at 03:32 am
It's only death to those still bullish in this market. It's golden to those who understand its importance. And since this summer's H+S got serious mainstream coverage this "Death Cross" will cause all CNBC to wet themselves. Definite self-fulfilling prophecy.
OK, but then Matt & Steve need to update the description in the Long Term Tools. There is is simply called Golden Cross. Maybe it needs to be called PonR Cross (Point of no Return!)
As I type I see SPX and RUT have already crossed, SPY is very close while NDX and DJIA are on target.
XLF (yes the frigging financials, who are both cause and thus bellweather of this meltdown, broke way back in late June 2011). This was serious heads-up.
I believe once XLF has retested 13.25, this breakdown moves into Wave 3 downwards.
Ominous Golden Cross in Euroland
Posted by simon_says on 13th of Aug 2011 at 06:10 am
DAX and FTSE have already their golden cross. SPX looks imminent. Who fancies being long? Seriously. The DAX didn't cross in 2010 like the rest but this time it has.
XLF sticking out like a sore thumb
Posted by simon_says on 9th of Aug 2011 at 05:28 am
Even in the darkest down days of 2008/2009 XLF lay never, ever as far outside its Bollinger Bands as yet.
As per my earlier post, XLF has to hold above 12.0 or else this portends something far, far worse
Keep your eye on the USD
Posted by simon_says on 8th of Aug 2011 at 06:40 pm
The USD has barely moved today (+0.36%) after one of Wall St's all-time high massacres.
Can someone explain to me this incongruity, this disconnect of the greenback 's inverse relationship to the stock market? Is it a new paradigm?
XLF at critical level
Posted by simon_says on 8th of Aug 2011 at 06:16 pm
The financials were the harbringers of this present downturn, preceding the SPX downwards and they have fully retraced all the gains since July 2009. XLF must hold above 12 or else this correction will metastasize into something far more serious.
GFC1 versus GFC2
SPX and VIX weekly
Posted by simon_says on 5th of Aug 2011 at 02:32 am
http://www.24hgold.com/english/contributor.aspx?article=2904652622G10020&contributor=Neil+Charnock
http://www.smh.com.au/business/gfc-ii-looms-if-debt-woes-grow-ubs-warns-20100521-vzub.html
Another term seems to be the Global Unleveraging Crisis or Global Sovereign Debt Crisis, the GFC's bigger and badder brother.
USD
SPX and VIX weekly
Posted by simon_says on 4th of Aug 2011 at 07:00 pm
USD has also yet to confirm any serious breakout commensurate with a market meltdown. Any Chicken Littles out there need to explain this incongruity.
I make a 5 wave count down since May 2010, which is an impulsive movement
SPX and VIX weekly
Posted by simon_says on 4th of Aug 2011 at 06:32 pm
People have short memories. We have seen this before, in May 2010, at least in the VIX. The major difference here is in the SPX MACD... If 1190 holds we have only a 50% retracement, the financials would have had close to a 100% retracement.
Way too many people out there eager to say they timed the start of GFC2, particularly as they completely mistimed GFC1 or got burnt catching falling knives.
Debt wrangling: Your guide to economic chaos
Posted by simon_says on 4th of Aug 2011 at 03:20 am
Very succint analysis of the current market. Particularly interesting for those trading the Aussie dollar or bonds.
http://www.theage.com.au/business/debt-wrangling-your-guide-to-economic-chaos-20110804-1icr9.html
$VIX:$VXV ??
Posted by simon_says on 3rd of Aug 2011 at 09:41 am
An oldie but a goodie! May have actually triggered a peak 2 days ago.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX:$VXV&p=60&b=4&g=0&id=p83610475364&a=183278089&listNum=1
Confirmation on Cross of 13/34 EMA on Daily SPX
Posted by simon_says on 1st of Aug 2011 at 05:53 pm
Is that a confirmed cross on the 13/34 EMA on Daily SPX? Worth a looksee before going long. Staying in cash myself-
China 2x Short Index (FXP) buy signal on PSAR
Posted by simon_says on 19th of May 2011 at 10:27 am
China may experience some imminent indigestion
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-money-moves-one-china-basher-is-making-now-2011-05-19
Love Matt's 5 min chart
Posted by simon_says on 2nd of Nov 2009 at 12:12 pm
Love Matt's 5 min chart here. Shows the market's heartbeat but good.
Has GDX triggered or not? http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=GDX&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=18&i=p50410382197&a=179439424&r=6845
Posted by simon_says on 2nd of Nov 2009 at 11:44 am
Has GDX triggered or not?
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=GDX&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=18&i=p50410382197&a=179439424&r=6845
Title: Aussie Dollar dive and
Posted by simon_says on 1st of Nov 2009 at 10:14 am
http://www.theage.com.au/business/dollar-each-way-on-the-future-20091101-hrnj.html
LONG-TERM forecasts for the Australian dollar are diverging, with strategists forecasting the dollar will sit between US68¢ and US90¢ in a year, highlighting global economic uncertainty.
Currency strategists are divided on whether global growth will continue uninterrupted or if systemic risk still looms in developing economies, particularly eastern Europe.
However, emerging market specialists say eastern European economies are no longer at risk of default, but would struggle to keep their currencies pegged to the strong euro.
Conflicting forecasts make it difficult for importers and exporters to know when to lock in contract prices or hedge currency trades.
Forex Group currency strategist Adam Wood believes the Australian dollar will fall to US68¢ within eight months, triggered by a wave of defaults through eastern European banks.
''I am 100 per cent confident they [eastern Europe] are in for a very, very hard ride for a very long time,'' he said. ''There is definitely going to be a depression or a severe recession.''
Falling turnover and rising unemployment in countries that have recently joined the euro zone - Latvia, Poland, Hungary, Ukraine and Estonia - would put pressure on businesses and households to repay loans, Mr Wood said.
Most of these banks' creditors were based in Austria, Germany and Switzerland, and if defaults started, these banks would need to buy large amounts of US dollars to fund margin calls on US dollar-denominated assets, which would push the greenback up.
He also forecast an associated decline in the sharemarket, with the Dow Jones index falling to 4800 and the S&P/ASX 200 falling to about 3200 next October or November.
The Dow closed at 9712.73 and the S&P/ASX 200 closed at 4643 on Friday.
Morgan Stanley executive director of investment management, Timothy Drinkall, said the EU, regional banks and IMF had co-ordinated support for the region. The imminent problem was keeping the currencies of eastern European economies pegged to the stronger euro.
''Working off the economic imbalances with a pegged exchange rate is going to be harsh and prolonged,'' he wrote in an email to businessday.
''Latvia is the focal point of this risk … if the Latvian peg did break, I would expect contagion to hit most of the currencies in the region.''
The Australian dollar would keep above US90¢ throughout the second half of 2010, according to Westpac Bank currency strategist, Jonathan Cavenagh.
''We are aware of the eastern Europe debt condition,'' he said.
''[But ] it is difficult to forecast how that will unfold, and what impact that will have.''
Energy is accumulating in this
SPG - SRS
Posted by simon_says on 31st of Oct 2009 at 07:32 pm
Energy is accumulating in this triangle so a (put/call) spread strategy or at least a covered call would be advisable.
All momentum indicators on oil
Does this candlestick pattern have a name?
Posted by simon_says on 31st of Oct 2009 at 03:42 pm
All momentum indicators on oil now are screaming "Gangway!" Do you want to put yourself in its path?
Looks like a reflexive bounce
Posted by simon_says on 30th of Oct 2009 at 01:40 pm
Looks like a reflexive bounce off the 10min downtrend line...
CIT, Icahn reach a tentative
Posted by simon_says on 30th of Oct 2009 at 01:21 pm
CIT, Icahn reach a tentative deal on restructuring. Icahn will provide a $1 billion backup line to CIT.