Posted by mastermind on 29th of Mar 2023 at 08:29 pm
A follow-through day according to IBD. I'm not sure I quite see
that. Volume was fairly average and not much higher than yesterday.
Small and mid caps are still below their short term moving
averages. On the other hand, breadth has improved, the NASI and
NYSI have turned up and there is positive seasonality to give a
boost. I hope it is not too short-lived. I'm sure Steve will tell
us when the rally is over before IBD will.
I agree with you Arun, too . The PMO is curling up and
advance decline line is improving and higher % stocks over the 50
sma. I think theres been some improvement in breath and
mclellan oscillators as well. I think we have higher to go
after some more pullbacks, and wish Matt's mechanical system
had given us some kind of trigger to go long
the QQQ system has been long for about 3 weeks. Other ETF's and
stocks went long or have been long on the KISS stuff.
the reversion to mean systems are not long because they are
reversion to mean - they will be pretty quite when the VIX is low
and volatility is low, don't sit around waiting for them to
trigger, plenty of triggers from other things
we've had very valid long triggers via the RSI 14 trendline
breaks on the indexes
Posted by bpozdoll1717 on 29th of Mar 2023 at 10:06 pm
Arun, what is your hypothesis? Do you believe the markets
are moving to all time highs? I’d be interested in your
forecast for the next 6-12 months given your analysis.
Curious not critical. My view is that the S and P is
still 16% off its all time high and I don’t see it getting back
there within the next year. I went to cash when Matt and
Steve warned over a year ago and have gone long on oversold
conditions a couple of times. This is all in my 401k.
Returns were 8% LY and 5% so far TY. I think 4300 or
so will be the peak for the year. I know far too many who
followed money manger advice to stay the course and stay all in
equities. They are told your new deposits will get in lower.
That is true but the majority of the old money would be
underwater. Let us know your forecast please. Thank
you.
As far as grading my effort Matt ...i get your point..but I dont
do this for a living but I just cant find any technical reasons
(fundamentals I agree arent great but technicals are looking lot
better than fundamentals....
thanks for posting the charts and comments. Nothing in those
charts screams bull market, maybe more upside which we've been
favoring anyway
Otherwise I think it's heathier if the market goes through a 2
or 3 year sideways cycle or bear market, it would make things
stronger and setup better for a good sustained rally again.
It's healthy for the markets and better for them to work off prior
excesses.
Hi Matt, thanks for your comments, Was there an alert of
post from the mechanical system to go long on spy or ES, cos i
check the newsletters and the blog but don't see anything unless I
did miss something. I am also confused by the KISS system cos
you said not to follow it as we are in a bear market. I
would like a refresher so i know how to best use this
newsletter and signals. something you had suggested to a
newer member today. could you maybe make and post a
recording sometime on how to use the signals ? TIA
Posted by timebandit on 29th of Mar 2023 at 10:45 pm
I listen to most of the newsletters. When the QQQs went long on
the daily KISS system it was mentioned in several of the
newsletters at that time. I have found that to be the case with the
QQQs and $SPX KISS during my time as a subscriber. The buys and
sells are mentioned in the newsletters multiple times when they go
long or close out.
Yes as Timebandit mentioned kiss systems did go long and it was
mentioned. Same thing happened last year too.
The only thing that I noticed last year was even though kiss
systems went long , it wasn’t updated in 401k systems page but was
mentioned in newsletters. I had asked that question in the
community as well but didn’t get a response. Maybe it was
overlooked.
IBD reputation has been seriously sullied in recent years. Gil
Morales, a disciple of William O’Neill, mocked IBD‘s
“follow-through“ methodology not too long ago.
While fundamental analysts, and investors, focus on earnings
growth/decline, and valuation relative to growth rate, capturing
alpha with a divergent view relative to the consensus, it seems
that technical analysis better captures the equally important (more
important?) aspect of how much liquidity is in the system, and what
portion of that liquidity wants to be risk-on.
Posted by fredsaid on 29th of Mar 2023 at 11:07 pm
All aboard the BULL Train ! It's not about bull or bear
it's about timing and patience and more than that, risk and reward
which is unique to everyone. The 2 most difficult things
humans don't manage well bet I guarentee that algos and AI do.
I continue to dip my toes in the market long with my 401
like now in the QQQs and large Caps but 90% plus is stlll
guarenteed at 5% in global bonds. Having said that...the SnP
will see 3200 before Dec 2024 (likely before Apr 2024) and TSLA
will be eviscerated. I knew the April bulls would be out in
full steam...problem is the market likely wants to rally from lower
levels (PCE coming and would love a Thursday rally to short the fuk
out of it) and I'm convinced the banks are an easy target, once
again, even if it's not this week to suck in the bears for a rally
as i've posted a few times recently. Time frames are very
important ...man can you imagine how great it would be to have a
BLOG voting tool on this website ? Im sure no on has thought
of that before. Like April UP or April DOWN ? I'm
almost at the point of creating my own Discord channel for us.
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A follow-through day according to
Posted by mastermind on 29th of Mar 2023 at 08:29 pm
A follow-through day according to IBD. I'm not sure I quite see that. Volume was fairly average and not much higher than yesterday. Small and mid caps are still below their short term moving averages. On the other hand, breadth has improved, the NASI and NYSI have turned up and there is positive seasonality to give a boost. I hope it is not too short-lived. I'm sure Steve will tell us when the rally is over before IBD will.
Don’t go by one day
Posted by arun on 29th of Mar 2023 at 09:02 pm
Don’t go by one day or by what IBD says. Go by the trend. And by the direction of the MA’s
BEARS ARE F#%#ED
A good 18 months of bad news and massive interest hikes and what did the bears achieve.
LOLOL…
I agree with you Arun,
Posted by imelhoe on 29th of Mar 2023 at 10:23 pm
I agree with you Arun, too . The PMO is curling up and advance decline line is improving and higher % stocks over the 50 sma. I think theres been some improvement in breath and mclellan oscillators as well. I think we have higher to go after some more pullbacks, and wish Matt's mechanical system had given us some kind of trigger to go long
the QQQ system has been
Posted by matt on 29th of Mar 2023 at 10:34 pm
the QQQ system has been long for about 3 weeks. Other ETF's and stocks went long or have been long on the KISS stuff.
the reversion to mean systems are not long because they are reversion to mean - they will be pretty quite when the VIX is low and volatility is low, don't sit around waiting for them to trigger, plenty of triggers from other things
we've had very valid long triggers via the RSI 14 trendline breaks on the indexes
Arun, what is your hypothesis?
Posted by bpozdoll1717 on 29th of Mar 2023 at 10:06 pm
Arun, what is your hypothesis? Do you believe the markets are moving to all time highs? I’d be interested in your forecast for the next 6-12 months given your analysis. Curious not critical. My view is that the S and P is still 16% off its all time high and I don’t see it getting back there within the next year. I went to cash when Matt and Steve warned over a year ago and have gone long on oversold conditions a couple of times. This is all in my 401k. Returns were 8% LY and 5% so far TY. I think 4300 or so will be the peak for the year. I know far too many who followed money manger advice to stay the course and stay all in equities. They are told your new deposits will get in lower. That is true but the majority of the old money would be underwater. Let us know your forecast please. Thank you.
do me a favor, lay
Posted by matt on 29th of Mar 2023 at 09:14 pm
do me a favor, lay out the fundamental reason and technical reason why. There'll be a grade so put some effort into it
As far as grading my
Posted by arun on 29th of Mar 2023 at 09:38 pm
As far as grading my effort Matt ...i get your point..but I dont do this for a living but I just cant find any technical reasons (fundamentals I agree arent great but technicals are looking lot better than fundamentals....
thanks for posting the charts
Posted by matt on 29th of Mar 2023 at 10:26 pm
thanks for posting the charts and comments. Nothing in those charts screams bull market, maybe more upside which we've been favoring anyway
Otherwise I think it's heathier if the market goes through a 2 or 3 year sideways cycle or bear market, it would make things stronger and setup better for a good sustained rally again. It's healthy for the markets and better for them to work off prior excesses.
Hi Matt, thanks for your
Posted by imelhoe on 29th of Mar 2023 at 10:35 pm
Hi Matt, thanks for your comments, Was there an alert of post from the mechanical system to go long on spy or ES, cos i check the newsletters and the blog but don't see anything unless I did miss something. I am also confused by the KISS system cos you said not to follow it as we are in a bear market. I would like a refresher so i know how to best use this newsletter and signals. something you had suggested to a newer member today. could you maybe make and post a recording sometime on how to use the signals ? TIA
I listen to most of
Posted by timebandit on 29th of Mar 2023 at 10:45 pm
I listen to most of the newsletters. When the QQQs went long on the daily KISS system it was mentioned in several of the newsletters at that time. I have found that to be the case with the QQQs and $SPX KISS during my time as a subscriber. The buys and sells are mentioned in the newsletters multiple times when they go long or close out.
Yes as Timebandit mentioned kiss
Posted by arun on 30th of Mar 2023 at 06:11 am
Yes as Timebandit mentioned kiss systems did go long and it was mentioned. Same thing happened last year too.
The only thing that I noticed last year was even though kiss systems went long , it wasn’t updated in 401k systems page but was mentioned in newsletters. I had asked that question in the community as well but didn’t get a response. Maybe it was overlooked.
IBD reputation has been seriously
Posted by te22 on 29th of Mar 2023 at 10:44 pm
IBD reputation has been seriously sullied in recent years. Gil Morales, a disciple of William O’Neill, mocked IBD‘s “follow-through“ methodology not too long ago.
While fundamental analysts, and investors, focus on earnings growth/decline, and valuation relative to growth rate, capturing alpha with a divergent view relative to the consensus, it seems that technical analysis better captures the equally important (more important?) aspect of how much liquidity is in the system, and what portion of that liquidity wants to be risk-on.
Fundamentals really dont matter IMO
Posted by arun on 29th of Mar 2023 at 09:31 pm
Fundamentals really dont matter IMO because there are strongly opiniated views just like politics
That said here is SPX
https://schrts.co/fQrvbYmh
Largest pace of rate hikes in history and what did bears achieve -- sideways SPX ... really ???
QQQ - https://schrts.co/exvcJYmr
we haven't even touched precovid highs inspite of all this turmoil in QQQ`s
you think US debt is bad .....but the world out there is 10-100 X worse
USA has the best companies/innovation/infrastructure/healthcare ...literally anything in this entire world
I really cant find anything negative
https://schrts.co/UGysIECC
https://schrts.co/nppAjdiI
schrts.co
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All aboard the BULL Train
Posted by fredsaid on 29th of Mar 2023 at 11:07 pm
All aboard the BULL Train ! It's not about bull or bear it's about timing and patience and more than that, risk and reward which is unique to everyone. The 2 most difficult things humans don't manage well bet I guarentee that algos and AI do. I continue to dip my toes in the market long with my 401 like now in the QQQs and large Caps but 90% plus is stlll guarenteed at 5% in global bonds. Having said that...the SnP will see 3200 before Dec 2024 (likely before Apr 2024) and TSLA will be eviscerated. I knew the April bulls would be out in full steam...problem is the market likely wants to rally from lower levels (PCE coming and would love a Thursday rally to short the fuk out of it) and I'm convinced the banks are an easy target, once again, even if it's not this week to suck in the bears for a rally as i've posted a few times recently. Time frames are very important ...man can you imagine how great it would be to have a BLOG voting tool on this website ? Im sure no on has thought of that before. Like April UP or April DOWN ? I'm almost at the point of creating my own Discord channel for us.