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$TNX opened down and seems

Posted by timebandit on 24th of Jan 2022 at 09:03 am

$TNX opened down and seems headed to support line/20 dma

Yeah, I hear you, man. I told my father-in-law in late December that we were in the fourth quarter of the bull and he should protect his gains with stops (which I was pretty certain he didn't have in place). He went in and talked to his Edward Jones broker, who I just found out talked him out of it. I freaking lost my mind when he told me this last week. I was planning to tell him to wait for a bounce, just like you say, and cut his losses then.

Agree on the monthly. When I look at this weekly chart , there is a recent intense red candle, but the MACD panel tells a story of waning momentum since May of last year. All of the faster MACDs have crossed below the red one, and their declines have been accelerating. The red MACD (55,89,1) started turning down this month. 

Matt and Steve have been mentioning the weakening going on under the surface since last summer. To me, this looks much more like a classic topping pattern, unlike the concentrated Covid plunge in Feb/Mar 2020. Tops take time to play out, so maybe that play has another act before bull gives way to bear. We shall see.

UPDATE: I added a 15-year snapshot showing just how distorted things have gotten the last two years. The MACDs never got above 100 until the fastest one nipped it in 2017. All but the red one got above 100 in 2018 and late 2019/early 2020. Then the red one went over 100 in late 2020. Talk about frothy.

Yeah, makes sense. I saw somewhere that the declining percentage was 82%, the highest in awhile. (I think they said since March 2020, but don't quote me.) Anyway, with the more Nasdaq stocks the difference then becomes bigger, as you say.

I wonder if that percentage and the high volume could represent capitulation. At least enough for a good bear rally for a day or two (or three).

Wow, NAAD closed the day

Posted by timebandit on 23rd of Jan 2022 at 12:05 pm

Wow, NAAD closed the day Friday at -3099. The first snapshot is a 15-minute chart, which is what I normally watch. I wanted to see just how extreme a low that was, so I changed to a 4 hour chart and went back 10 years. As you can see, it's pretty extreme.

That is hilarious.

cycle indicator observation

Posted by timebandit on 22nd of Jan 2022 at 03:29 pm

That is hilarious.

Yeah, when I look at the Covid plunge, it kind of looks we would actually be a little earlier into it than the March 11 time frame. For example, NAMO was below the Bollinger Bands for 3 days in late February. It came back within the lower band on Feb 28th, which actually had a pretty deep low but closed above the low of Feb 27th to make a green candle. After another couple days or so of rally, the decline resumed. 

I'm actually thinking Monday could be more like Feb 28th 2020. Gap down but catch a bid and take off to end up green. But what do I know? Nada, zip, zilch. The market will reveal itself.

And none of this is to say we will duplicate what happened in 2020. What I'm trying to keep in my mind is that all bets are off in this environment. Pretty much anything could happen. I don't want to lock myself into any expectations. I just want to be able to react to what is according to a plan.

There are a couple of

Posted by timebandit on 22nd of Jan 2022 at 02:16 pm

There are a couple of uncanny similarities between where the Nasdaq is today and where it was on March 11, 2020. The first snapshot below illustrates them, and the second snapshot is a closeup of 2020 so you can see the vertical red line a little better. 

Yesterday, the Percent of Nasdaq Stocks Above the 200 Day Moving Average closed at 16.84 and the 10 dma of NAHL closed at -541.20. On March 11, 2020, these two measures closed at 16.31 and -538.90. Not identical but pretty close. Now, this could just be a funny coincidence. But it did call my attention to March 11, 2020.

On March 11, 2020, NASI was at -801 (it's -860 now), NAMO was at -97 (it's -80 now), VXN was at 50 (it's 34 now), and CPCE was at 1.02 (it's 0.82 now). Those numbers were (and are) pretty extreme . You would think it was (and is) time for a bounce.

Here's what happened on March 12th: big gap down. COMPQ closed 750 points lower. That doesn't mean it will happen again, but it COULD. I think it does mean Monday and the coming week will be very.................interesting is an understatement.

If as Steve says, this may be a wave iii, or (3), or three or whatever down, then all bets are off. Wave threes are illogical. I try not to get in their way.

I'm positioned short because the market wants to go down. Last year, we had a lot of Monday morning margin calls after bloody opex weeks. Maybe it happens again, maybe it doesn't. If the market gaps down, I will take some off the table. If it gaps up, I will have a decision to make. Bear rallies can be motherfletchers

I showed this chart a

Posted by timebandit on 22nd of Jan 2022 at 07:22 am

I showed this chart a week or two ago when the 9 ema of $CPCE was at the horizontal dotted yellow line. I mentioned that the 9 ema has turned down from this level the last year and a half (with some breakthrough attempts). I also noted, however, that the upper Bollinger Band was now well above that level, opening up territory to move up into. 

Well, here we are now at that upper band. This usually signals a bounce in the market, but the band has flared upward. It is not a very significant obstacle in that configuration. It will take a bounce in the market and drop in this 9 ema to bring that upper band back down. 

The 9 ema has also gone above the red line signalling a significant correction. The last time it was above that line was in May 2020. 

That said,if you look left to 2019, you will see that the 9 ema was above this line and the sky had not fallen. And if you look at the second snapshot, showing this chart during the years from 2006 through 2009, you will see the 9 ema spent a lot of time above the first red line, even during initial stages of uptrends. It barely spent any time below the horizontal dotted yellow line. I suspect the $CPCE has been distorted artificially lower in recent years due to QE. Assuming the Fed tapers/drains liquidity as it says it will, this should normalize. We are not to that point yet, however. And until we get there, the 9 ema of $CPCE probably needs to be treated as a more sensitive indicator than in the past.

Man, the coin charts may be more exciting than the football this weekend

"Shares of MicroStrategytumbled 17.8% Friday afternoon after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission reportedly rejected the company’s bitcoin accounting strategy."

ZS not so good

Posted by timebandit on 21st of Jan 2022 at 03:04 pm

ZS not so good

CM looks precarious

Posted by timebandit on 21st of Jan 2022 at 11:50 am

CM looks precarious

UNG - did someone light

Posted by timebandit on 21st of Jan 2022 at 11:37 am

UNG - did someone light the pilot?

$VIX 15-minute has come down

Posted by timebandit on 21st of Jan 2022 at 11:19 am

$VIX 15-minute has come down to test line it gapped over

I really should have done this IWM chart last night. Lazy of me. There's a gap to fill from last January, it bounced off the top of the gap for now. Still hoping for an unreasonably good bounce to short

Sold IWM puts on that

Posted by timebandit on 21st of Jan 2022 at 10:05 am

Sold IWM puts on that last push down. Looking to buy in again if there is a good bounce. May not get it though if we just keep selling off

$TNX looks like it's forming

Posted by timebandit on 21st of Jan 2022 at 09:27 am

$TNX looks like it's forming island top pattern Steve talked about last night

A lot of the indicators

Posted by timebandit on 21st of Jan 2022 at 09:24 am

A lot of the indicators I follow, like NAMO, NYMO, etc., are going to be out of whack in this environment. Fed not just tapering, I believe actually draining. Margin calls distort everything too. Matt and Steve are right: price is king. I've gotten chewed up in the past when I ignored that.

That is a great snapshot.

Pre Market

Posted by timebandit on 21st of Jan 2022 at 09:19 am

That is a great snapshot. Who writes the notes in the cyan column? Funny!


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