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1/2 day KISS index systems

Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2023 at 01:39 pm

some of these 1/2 day systems trigger on SPY, QQQ etc. again I'm not following them or trading them yet, just reporting

GDX

Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2023 at 01:38 pm

GDX - Chart Link- smack down on that puppy and gold followed suit after. Otherwise bouncing some off the support lows.

$BPGDM - Chart Link-

has your longer term outlook

Posted by been_trumped on 28th of Sep 2023 at 01:40 pm

has your longer term outlook changed at all or still bullish?

I've never been long term bullish on GDX, you can't, only short term bullish when it sets up, it's a trading instrument only, does not uptrend for long periods of times in most cases and is why the daily KISS standard settings is not profitable on it.

Gold I like it long term, based on the monthly chart this is some sort of if this pullback forms a higher low and is a cup and handle type of pattern

refer to daily buy and hold GDX stats - it's not like SPY or QQQ the indexes where you could hold them long term and be up over time - GDX park your money in that long term and make almost nothing - you catch it when it trends in those rare times and then get out

over the past 5 years

Posted by been_trumped on 28th of Sep 2023 at 02:02 pm

over the past 5 years GDX is up around 50% even after getting hammered for the last several months. if gold really breaks out to new highs, i don't know how GDX would continue sputtering.

Yes and over 10 years

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2023 at 02:11 pm

Yes and over 10 years GDX is down over 50% - compare that to Gold Bullion. Most miners have greatly underperformed Gold Bullion - you really must do extensive homework on miners. Gold relative to the US Dollar has held value as Fiat Currencies always end up in the toilet - only a matter of time.

If you bought silver at

Posted by mastermind on 28th of Sep 2023 at 02:58 pm

If you bought silver at its peak about 12 years ago, you would be down 50% before inflation.

This is one of those

Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Sep 2023 at 02:14 pm

This is one of those statements not backed up by data - I heard that the miners are generally run very poorly and should be avoided as long term investments....trading vehicles only. I think that came from Joe Terranova.

Gold - Carter Worth, aka

Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Sep 2023 at 02:07 pm

Gold - Carter Worth, aka "The Chart Master," had a segment on gold a few months back. He showed how it's had almost the exact same return as the S&P over the last 50 years, with less volatility. Everyone on the desk was surprised, as was I. I personally never would have guessed that was true. I'm sure you could find the segment on CNBC dot com or YouTube.

I looked this up. I

Posted by mastermind on 29th of Sep 2023 at 02:09 am

I looked this up. I see 50 years ago to today - 4400% gain for S&P 500, 1800% gain for gold, 700% gain for silver. So not even close to equal.

I'll try and track down

Posted by DigiNomad on 29th of Sep 2023 at 02:36 am

I'll try and track down the CBW fast money piece on golds performance as compared to the S&P. Maybe I remembered the 50 years part wrong? I remember clearly it was many years and almost identical performance...but maybe it was 25 years? I'm pretty good with remembering weird stuff like this fairly accurately and 50 years is stuck in my head, but I'll look for it and post when I find it.

again details matter - what's

Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2023 at 02:10 pm

again details matter - what's he talking about, holding gold? holding some gold stocks, I would need to see the stats and data laid out, just that statement is meaningless to me unless I see the actual data and stats laid out

I think he was just

Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Sep 2023 at 02:11 pm

I think he was just tracking the spot price. But yeah, I need to see data also. That's why I like Carter Worth - he always comes armed with charts and data instead of just making statements we're supposed to believe. The presentation was convincing.

that's 5 years, I'm talking

Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2023 at 02:05 pm

that's 5 years, I'm talking about longer term back - the stats speak for themselves, look at the buy and hold stats, as well as the draw downs, 25% 48.4%, 28%, 49.3%, 16.2% over those 5 years,

again for me - I can't just buy and hold GDX - can I hold it for 2 or 3 months on a trend? Yes of course, but long term like someone might with SPY, nah.

ok, i consider 5 years

Posted by been_trumped on 28th of Sep 2023 at 02:11 pm

ok, i consider 5 years long-term though. if someone is a believer that gold breaks all-time high and takes off from there, what would be a better option to take advantage of it instead of tying up a ton of capital in GLD?

Costco now selling gold bars

Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Sep 2023 at 01:50 pm

Costco now selling gold bars (online only). Not going to lie - I'm very interested. But they sell out immediately so far and I haven't been able to get them. 2 max per member, so it doesn't make a huge dent in what would be an appropriate holding, but it's a start.

yes only 2 per customer.

Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2023 at 01:50 pm

yes only 2 per customer.

Costco shipping gold bars -

Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Sep 2023 at 01:52 pm

Costco shipping gold bars - Porch pirates wet dream. UPS gonna ask for another raise....and armor.

ha yep, and thank god

Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2023 at 01:56 pm

ha yep, and thank god I live in a good area where I don't have to worry about those porch pirates.

that Mark Robber guy on Youtube funny when hey makes those glitter and stick bomb packages, and the porch pirate steel them and we get to listen

one of them I saw a guy take the fake package - then go to his GF's house and have the audacity to tell her that he bought this for her - then they open it and get sprayed in glitter and fart smell etc LOL

Ha! I didn't know about

Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Sep 2023 at 01:57 pm

Ha! I didn't know about that guy. Will definitely check it out.

Matt, maybe the pirates stay out of your neighborhood because the ISP sucks so bad?

here's the video - I

Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2023 at 02:11 pm

here's the video - I have it starting at that part - where the guy brings the box to his GF to open it

https://youtu.be/3c584TGG7jQ?t=688

Looks like the Swiss Alps

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2023 at 01:39 pm

Looks like the Swiss Alps

SPX 2 Relating to My Comments Below

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2023 at 01:35 pm

$SPX - Chart Link

Health care cost inflation -

Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Sep 2023 at 01:30 pm

Health care cost inflation - if you think it was bad before, just wait for until Ozempic and other weight loss drugs get approved for insurance payments and the impending Kaiser strike to play out (which of course will flow to all the other health care providers, if successful). Buckle up!

agree will replace Viagra as

Posted by retirefire on 28th of Sep 2023 at 01:35 pm

agree will replace Viagra as the number 1 medication man has ever discovered.

LOL - I need to

Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2023 at 01:39 pm

LOL - I need to ask Matt how much those Viagra pills cost these days

There are varying estimates for

Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Sep 2023 at 01:42 pm

There are varying estimates for cost, but generally it seems like it's in the $1000 per month range, if paying out of pocket (not supported by insurance or medicare...yet).