It's crazy that you can't trade the VIX directly, but you can
trade the inverse of the VIX, so short SVIX if you want to go long
VIX when VIX is as low as it gets, around 12ish. That
looks like a way to print money....or am I seeing it wrong?
I don't like paying for premium, and not informed enough to sell
options, but like the idea of selling some type of spreads where
you can be wrong on direction and still make money.
I am a big fan of bull/bear credit spreads and use them
exclusively. A small $ needed since you are taking in a credit as
part of the strat. But you need to pick a direction using your T.A.
You need to know direction. Not sure there is ANY option strategy
in which you get paid even if you are wrong. However, with
multi-leg strategies, like mine or butterflies etc you can adjust
the position if it goes against you.
Very simply, I was looking for a VIX smash and thus went long
SVIX which moves up when VIX gets hit - more of a swing trade for
me but will scale up or down along the way
I am wondering if this double bottom was a quant driven stop
run? be curious to see volume charts on the other indices, if
only there were time and world enough.
There is a structure in futures trading that would call a double
bottom "a weak bottom" because no strong excess or absolute single
column structure was formed, AND it would mean it would be
revisited. However is it REALLY a double bottom since they don't
match? Just an interesting question.
A-Eye sayeth
Looking at the chart you provided, let's analyze whether the
pattern in question can be considered a double bottom:
Close Proximity: The two low points on the chart are indeed
close to each other in terms of price level. While they may not be
exactly the same, technical analysis often allows for a degree of
variation.
Volume: The volume indicator below the chart shows
significant trading activity around the lows, which is typical in
double bottom formations as it indicates strong support at those
levels.
Structure: For a double bottom to be confirmed, the price
needs to break above the intermediate high between the two lows. It
appears that there is some upward movement after the second low,
which supports the potential for this pattern.
Weak Bottom vs. Double Bottom:
Weak Bottom: In futures trading, the term "weak bottom"
suggests that the price level may not hold and could be revisited
due to the lack of strong buying pressure or a significant excess
indicating a firm reversal.
Double Bottom: Even if the two bottoms are not exactly at the
same price level, as long as they are relatively close and the
intermediate high is breached, the pattern can still be valid.
Conclusion:
In this chart, the lows are close enough to be considered a
potential double bottom, especially if subsequent price action
confirms the reversal by moving above the intermediate high.
However, if the pattern lacks strong excess or fails to break the
intermediate high decisively, it might be viewed as a weak
bottom,
I"m leaving in 30 min, here's an update on the volatility
systems. First off nothing new with QQQ, DIA, SPY
otherwise yesterday I said the GOOGL volatility system went
short, it's closing out already close out today (upper right side
of chart), it uses VXGOG for the volatility instrument
Also - AAPL volatility is looking to go long (bottom middle), it
uses VXAPL for the volatility instrument
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Jul 2024 at 12:03 pm
A lot of smart people maintain that the real data shows that
we've essentially been in a recession since 2009 that's been
constantly papered over with more and more printing to hold up the
data so that gaslighting would work and people wouldn't panic so
much as their standard of life consistently declines.
Check out Eurodollar University, some guests on Thoughtful
Money, etc. It's obviously not something you're going to hear even
hinted at on CNBC or Bloomberg - their one and only job is to sell
bonds and equities....the last thing they want to do is scare
people away.
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Jul 2024 at 02:44 pm
The gaslighting has been very effective. The general lack of
economics education has seemingly been part of the plan. The
argument would be that Bloomberg data is lying. As much as some
might like to support that idea, there is no evidence that
Bloomberg data is faulty.
Steve already knows, I have to leave in about an hr to take care
of something that can only be done during the day (not after 4 pm
EST) and not the weekend. I always hate having to do this, but if
it's gotta be one of the days during the week Friday is generally
best with the market My guess is that I'll probably be back
around 2 pm EST
Got it, had no idea I could trade this ticker, looks like 3
waves down, and a sloppy 5 waves up prior. No big currency
moves during this last days of "volatility", so I assume the
Energizer Bunny market should return and SVIX should increase.
On the entire upper west side of Manhattan, from 59th St to
Harlem and across from the Hudson River to Central Park, there are
a grand total of two -- public charging stations. And so many cars
owned it's hard to find a parking space—just a fact.
On this Original Site, you can download the entire database into
excel which I did, and made this chart.
I'd like to run it through some AI to establish some "how to
read this" rules, but my own quick visual observation is that
dropping to 80 or 70 really means nothing in a bull type
market.
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Jul 2024 at 10:55 pm
All this Kerfuffle with the left missing a fish in a barrel and
then skipping the entire Democratic process to install a candidate
without voter input has distracted everyone. They're still
debasing the currency at a record rate!! You can't hold asset
prices down for very long when you're destroying the value of the
thing you use to purchase those assets. The recent movements have
almost nothing to do with what the assets are actually worth.
You think asset prices went down in South American countries when
they realized they were going up for a bad reason? hell no, they
accelerated higher.
I don't think so but TS been running like crap, I'm trying to
reopen these workspaces, if I see anything I'll let you know
I see that the GOOGL volatility system took a short LOL - seems
odd after a sell off, but that's based on the volatility instrument
for GOOGL VXGOG.X, those are not technically mean reversion, even
though most of the trades look that way, sometimes you get weird
behavior
Took a minor position long
Posted by steveo on 26th of Jul 2024 at 11:21 am
Took a minor position long on SVIX,
Steve, were would you set a stop loss? I am thinking to set a sell at a "blow off top" in case it make a quick large move up
I bought some on the
Posted by steve on 26th of Jul 2024 at 11:23 am
I bought some on the open - no set stops for me will scale upon any weakness
Took partials in 42.90s (gains)
Posted by steve on 26th of Jul 2024 at 11:43 am
Took partials in 42.90s (gains) - big position so managing accordingly
It's crazy that you can't
Posted by steveo on 26th of Jul 2024 at 11:50 am
It's crazy that you can't trade the VIX directly, but you can trade the inverse of the VIX, so short SVIX if you want to go long VIX when VIX is as low as it gets, around 12ish. That looks like a way to print money....or am I seeing it wrong?
It's a futures product. I
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Jul 2024 at 11:56 am
It's a futures product. I think of them as a derivative of a derivative. You can trade VIX options also.
I don't like paying for
Posted by steveo on 26th of Jul 2024 at 12:01 pm
I don't like paying for premium, and not informed enough to sell options, but like the idea of selling some type of spreads where you can be wrong on direction and still make money.
I am a big fan
Posted by brophy on 26th of Jul 2024 at 12:35 pm
I am a big fan of bull/bear credit spreads and use them exclusively. A small $ needed since you are taking in a credit as part of the strat. But you need to pick a direction using your T.A. You need to know direction. Not sure there is ANY option strategy in which you get paid even if you are wrong. However, with multi-leg strategies, like mine or butterflies etc you can adjust the position if it goes against you.
Iron condor - whether you're
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Jul 2024 at 01:53 pm
Iron condor - whether you're bullish or bearish on direction, you can win being wong.
Iron Condor - as long
Posted by brophy on 26th of Jul 2024 at 05:09 pm
Iron Condor - as long as you adjust it, when needed, can avoid major losses, as I have said.
It's a defined risk trade,
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Jul 2024 at 06:38 pm
It's a defined risk trade, so you don't necessarily need to adjust it. I often do...with mixed results.
It's a VERY popular trade.
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Jul 2024 at 12:04 pm
It's a VERY popular trade. Someday it could cause systemic risk...it's that popular.
Very simply, I was looking
Posted by steve on 26th of Jul 2024 at 11:54 am
Very simply, I was looking for a VIX smash and thus went long SVIX which moves up when VIX gets hit - more of a swing trade for me but will scale up or down along the way
If that peak between the
Posted by steveo on 26th of Jul 2024 at 11:56 am
If that peak between the double bottom is exceeded, then SVIX should rocket up. Any big option events tomorrow?
I mean the double bottom
Posted by steveo on 26th of Jul 2024 at 11:56 am
I mean the double bottom on SPY
do you set alarms, or
Posted by steveo on 26th of Jul 2024 at 11:25 am
do you set alarms, or do you just have like 10 monitors? LOL
I am wondering if this
Posted by steveo on 26th of Jul 2024 at 11:00 am
I am wondering if this double bottom was a quant driven stop run? be curious to see volume charts on the other indices, if only there were time and world enough.
There is a structure in
Posted by brophy on 26th of Jul 2024 at 11:44 am
There is a structure in futures trading that would call a double bottom "a weak bottom" because no strong excess or absolute single column structure was formed, AND it would mean it would be revisited. However is it REALLY a double bottom since they don't match? Just an interesting question.
A-Eye sayeth Looking at the chart
Posted by steveo on 26th of Jul 2024 at 11:54 am
A-Eye sayeth
Looking at the chart you provided, let's analyze whether the pattern in question can be considered a double bottom:
Close Proximity: The two low points on the chart are indeed close to each other in terms of price level. While they may not be exactly the same, technical analysis often allows for a degree of variation.
Volume: The volume indicator below the chart shows significant trading activity around the lows, which is typical in double bottom formations as it indicates strong support at those levels.
Structure: For a double bottom to be confirmed, the price needs to break above the intermediate high between the two lows. It appears that there is some upward movement after the second low, which supports the potential for this pattern.
Weak Bottom vs. Double Bottom:
Weak Bottom: In futures trading, the term "weak bottom" suggests that the price level may not hold and could be revisited due to the lack of strong buying pressure or a significant excess indicating a firm reversal.
Double Bottom: Even if the two bottoms are not exactly at the same price level, as long as they are relatively close and the intermediate high is breached, the pattern can still be valid.
Conclusion:
In this chart, the lows are close enough to be considered a potential double bottom, especially if subsequent price action confirms the reversal by moving above the intermediate high. However, if the pattern lacks strong excess or fails to break the intermediate high decisively, it might be viewed as a weak bottom,
Volatility systems
Posted by matt on 26th of Jul 2024 at 10:10 am
I"m leaving in 30 min, here's an update on the volatility systems. First off nothing new with QQQ, DIA, SPY
otherwise yesterday I said the GOOGL volatility system went short, it's closing out already close out today (upper right side of chart), it uses VXGOG for the volatility instrument
Also - AAPL volatility is looking to go long (bottom middle), it uses VXAPL for the volatility instrument
Michigan Consumer Sentiment For July
Posted by steve on 26th of Jul 2024 at 10:00 am
Michigan Consumer Sentiment For July 66.4 Vs 66.0 Est.; 68.2 Prior
Call me the graph guy
Posted by steveo on 26th of Jul 2024 at 10:52 am
Call me the graph guy today
A lot of smart people
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Jul 2024 at 12:03 pm
A lot of smart people maintain that the real data shows that we've essentially been in a recession since 2009 that's been constantly papered over with more and more printing to hold up the data so that gaslighting would work and people wouldn't panic so much as their standard of life consistently declines.
Check out Eurodollar University, some guests on Thoughtful Money, etc. It's obviously not something you're going to hear even hinted at on CNBC or Bloomberg - their one and only job is to sell bonds and equities....the last thing they want to do is scare people away.
For all the people that
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Jul 2024 at 01:56 pm
For all the people that rolled their eyes and thought "Digi is at it again"....here you go. Would love to see data based responses.
So we are equal to
Posted by steveo on 26th of Jul 2024 at 02:38 pm
So we are equal to 1990, except the dollar is worth 40% less, nice way to gaslight the serfs
The gaslighting has been very
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Jul 2024 at 02:44 pm
The gaslighting has been very effective. The general lack of economics education has seemingly been part of the plan. The argument would be that Bloomberg data is lying. As much as some might like to support that idea, there is no evidence that Bloomberg data is faulty.
A long term chart of
Posted by steveo on 26th of Jul 2024 at 01:33 pm
A long term chart of the various M's money supply would be useful in wrapping ones head around that....well looky here, I made one.
BKR daily was flagging
Posted by morton7 on 26th of Jul 2024 at 09:40 am
BKR daily was flagging
stockcharts.com
BKR | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
Create advanced interactive price charts for BKR, with a wide variety of chart types, technical indicators, overlays, and annotation tools.
MMM still own, nice pop
Posted by morton7 on 26th of Jul 2024 at 09:32 am
MMM still own, nice pop on earnings!
FYI I have to leave in an hr
Posted by matt on 26th of Jul 2024 at 09:24 am
Steve already knows, I have to leave in about an hr to take care of something that can only be done during the day (not after 4 pm EST) and not the weekend. I always hate having to do this, but if it's gotta be one of the days during the week Friday is generally best with the market My guess is that I'll probably be back around 2 pm EST
USA PCE price index (YoY)
Posted by steve on 26th of Jul 2024 at 08:32 am
USA PCE price index (YoY) For June 2.5% Vs. 2.5% Est.; 2.6% Prior
USA Core PCE Price Index (YoY) For June 2.6% Vs 2.5% Est.; 2.6% Prior
Core PCE hot. Inflation inflates.
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Jul 2024 at 09:22 am
Core PCE hot. Inflation inflates. Party on
USA PCE price index (MoM)
Posted by steve on 26th of Jul 2024 at 08:31 am
USA PCE price index (MoM) For June 0.1% Vs. 0.1% Est.; 0.0% Prior
USA Core PCE Price Index (MoM) For June 0.2% Vs 0.2% Est.; 0.1% Prior
SVIX on watch for me
Posted by steve on 26th of Jul 2024 at 08:30 am
SVIX on watch for me into next week along with the SPX/ES zones
what is SVIX and why
Posted by steveo on 26th of Jul 2024 at 09:41 am
what is SVIX and why on watch?
steveo, I'm on watch for
Posted by steve on 26th of Jul 2024 at 09:55 am
steveo, I'm on watch for a swing trade on SVIX (inverse VIX)
Got it, had no idea
Posted by steveo on 26th of Jul 2024 at 10:44 am
Got it, had no idea I could trade this ticker, looks like 3 waves down, and a sloppy 5 waves up prior. No big currency moves during this last days of "volatility", so I assume the Energizer Bunny market should return and SVIX should increase.
Volume also way up, FWIW
Ford’s traditional car business, called
Posted by brophy on 26th of Jul 2024 at 08:26 am
Ford’s traditional car business, called Ford Blue, generated an operating profit of $1.2 billion, some $300 million better than in the first quarter.
Ford’s EV business, called Model e, lost less money—a positive. It reported a loss of $1.1 billion compared with $1.3 billion in the first quarter.
In other words, Ford’s losses on electric vehicles almost wipes out their profit from making the cars most car buyers actually want.
Brilliant strategy, my take is
Posted by steveo on 26th of Jul 2024 at 09:42 am
Brilliant strategy, my take is that everyone who wants an electric car, already has one.
On the entire upper west
Posted by brophy on 26th of Jul 2024 at 09:57 am
On the entire upper west side of Manhattan, from 59th St to Harlem and across from the Hudson River to Central Park, there are a grand total of two -- public charging stations. And so many cars owned it's hard to find a parking space—just a fact.
Very large drop in NAIIM
Posted by rbreese on 26th of Jul 2024 at 06:57 am
Very large drop in NAIIM exposure index.
Where can one see that?
Posted by steveo on 26th of Jul 2024 at 09:44 am
Where can one see that?
NAAIM Index Link
Posted by steve on 26th of Jul 2024 at 10:02 am
NAAIM Index Link
en.macromicro.me
Just a moment...
On this Original Site, you
Posted by steveo on 26th of Jul 2024 at 10:22 am
On this Original Site, you can download the entire database into excel which I did, and made this chart.
I'd like to run it through some AI to establish some "how to read this" rules, but my own quick visual observation is that dropping to 80 or 70 really means nothing in a bull type market.
Any one got a deeper take on this?
https://naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/
It was posted on CNBC
Posted by rbreese on 26th of Jul 2024 at 09:56 am
It was posted on CNBC last evening and site NAIIM is usually slow to post unless you subscribe.
Just Sold my IREN this
Posted by rbreese on 26th of Jul 2024 at 06:37 am
Just Sold my IREN this a.m. 10.06
All this Kerfuffle with the
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Jul 2024 at 10:55 pm
All this Kerfuffle with the left missing a fish in a barrel and then skipping the entire Democratic process to install a candidate without voter input has distracted everyone. They're still debasing the currency at a record rate!! You can't hold asset prices down for very long when you're destroying the value of the thing you use to purchase those assets. The recent movements have almost nothing to do with what the assets are actually worth. You think asset prices went down in South American countries when they realized they were going up for a bad reason? hell no, they accelerated higher.
CPC closed outside its upper BB's
Posted by matt on 25th of Jul 2024 at 08:01 pm
$CPC - Chart Link
Thursday Newsletter
Posted by steve on 25th of Jul 2024 at 06:30 pm
Thursday Newsletter
QQQ daily KISS
Posted by matt on 25th of Jul 2024 at 04:29 pm
that weekly ATR is getting close now
Matt, Any additional Reversion Mean
Posted by dzurek2 on 25th of Jul 2024 at 04:11 pm
Matt, Any additional Reversion Mean entries today ?
I don't think so but
Posted by matt on 25th of Jul 2024 at 04:14 pm
I don't think so but TS been running like crap, I'm trying to reopen these workspaces, if I see anything I'll let you know
I see that the GOOGL volatility system took a short LOL - seems odd after a sell off, but that's based on the volatility instrument for GOOGL VXGOG.X, those are not technically mean reversion, even though most of the trades look that way, sometimes you get weird behavior
Well this action is good
Posted by steve on 25th of Jul 2024 at 04:11 pm
Well this action is good for who? __________________Answer: CBOE
FORD SHARES SINK 18% IN
Posted by steve on 25th of Jul 2024 at 04:10 pm
FORD SHARES SINK 18% IN BIGGEST ONE-DAY DROP SINCE 2008
yep I discussed last night
Posted by matt on 25th of Jul 2024 at 04:11 pm
yep I discussed last night and this morning - you didn't buy their EV's to help them