Chat GPT came up with basically the same answer I was thinking for this question, but I was still amazed at how quickly it produced the answer. FA's everywhere crossing their fingers and hoping people don't get too familiar and comfortable asking LLM's questions! The only flaw I could spot in Chat GPT's logic is that it didn't put together that the loss was unrealized. If it was realized, then the question to roll or not to roll would be a moot point. Still impressive.

Question: I have a 2 year treasury note with a 4.375% yield payable semi annually. The current yield on the same duration note is 5%. I have a .9% loss on my current note. Should I roll to a new 2 year note at the higher yield or hold on to current one until maturity? 

Answer: To determine whether you should roll your current 2-year Treasury note into a new 2-year note with a higher yield or hold onto your current one until maturity, you should consider a few factors:

1. Current Yield vs. Yield at Purchase:

   • Your current note has a yield of 4.375%, while the new 2-year note offers a yield of 5%. This suggests that the new note would provide a higher return if held to maturity.

2. The .9% Loss:

   • You mentioned that you have a 0.9% loss on your current note. It's important to clarify whether this loss is realized or unrealized. If it's an unrealized loss (meaning you haven't sold the note yet), you might want to consider if you are comfortable holding the note until maturity or if you expect the loss to widen further.

3. Time to Maturity:

   • Consider how much time is left until your current note matures. If it's close to maturity, you might decide to hold onto it, especially if the loss isn't significant and you believe that interest rates won't rise dramatically in the short term.

4. Future Interest Rate Expectations:

   • Evaluate your expectations for future interest rates. If you believe that interest rates will continue to rise, locking in a higher yield with the new note may be more attractive. However, if you expect interest rates to stabilize or even decrease, holding onto your current note may make more sense.

5. Liquidity Needs:

   • Consider whether you have any immediate liquidity needs. If you need access to the invested funds in the near future, you might prioritize that over maximizing yield.

Ultimately, the decision to roll over your current note or hold it until maturity depends on your individual financial goals, risk tolerance, and market expectations. You may want to consult with a financial advisor who can provide personalized advice based on your specific situation and objectives.

Matt or Steve, would you pls comment on the pattern that I see on HYG:  "M" topping pattern, with July 13 and Sept 1 being the left and right shoulders of the "M." Is it not true that once the middle dip of the M is breached, you shouldn't see price go back above it, or much above it? If so, and if the pattern plays out, price should drop pretty quickly here, maybe after testing and failing at the 9ema - ? 

CAMT - Chart Link- had nice day

GPCR - Chart Link-

Thursday Newsletter

Technically I emailed yesterday that the RSI oversold took a long on ES/MES, but today it officially went long. Better prices yesterday though obviously

again a lot of sub systems are in positions across SPY and ES

CORN daily and hourly

Hourly has cleared all the various moving averages

GOLD ?   some shares were firming up in the afternoon -  EQX,  AG   OR   NFGC  FSM,  DRD  ,  GDXU

Is this the low in TLT ?  seems to have bounced nicely . With a hammer 

IYT - morning star pattern on daily chart. A lot of resistance overhead, w/ various moving averages.

Note Powell speaks 4pm (non monetary related though) which is possible catalyst. 

Thanks for all the charts guys 

Giving each employee a new vehicle every 5 or 6 years, for free, would probably be less expensive than accepting their current demands....I think a LOT less expensive. And it would attract a TON of workers that might not otherwise consider the job. People love their cars in America!  Right now workers say they get a 10% reduction from sticker price. 

When does Powell speak today or tomorrow?

SPX - touched the top of the steep downtrend channel, printed a demark 9 and pulled back a little. Hard to say if we have one more push down before breaking the channel for what I think will be a wave 4 (the bearish count).  Channel is steep and narrow, it could be redrawn after a minor break. 

Is there really anything JPow can say that would give market a lift?

$SPX - Chart Link

They keep bringing on people that say "it's ridiculous that we're building cars that we can't even afford to buy."  Lol. Can you imagine if that bankrupt thought process was extended across the economy? Would have to have rich women working in watch and handbag factories...just to start with. Silly argument.  Socialism breaks down pretty quickly when common sense is injected.

I think most workers should be able to afford a new car at some point, if they work hard and save up. But, I don't see any path to saying they are entitled to be able to afford a 70K car (which is what one of the UAW picketers was saying).  I know I can't afford that! I settled for a 50K truck....and it's the most expensive vehicle I've ever bought, by a long shot....and I'm 50 with multiple degrees that I worked my butt off to achieve. Is it unfair that I can't buy a 70K vehicle? I guess not...because I don't build them?

HYG - could be an objective short if it climbs further toward the recently broken trendline. 

Energy stocks reversed .... following oil ....  getting tired a bit here short term IMHO ... looking for DRIP / ERY ....