Posted by DigiNomad on 29th of Sep 2023 at 02:50 am
Chat GPT came up with basically the same answer I was thinking
for this question, but I was still amazed at how quickly it
produced the answer. FA's everywhere crossing their fingers and
hoping people don't get too familiar and comfortable asking LLM's
questions! The only flaw I could spot in Chat GPT's logic is that
it didn't put together that the loss was unrealized. If it was
realized, then the question to roll or not to roll would be a moot
point. Still impressive.
Question: I have a 2 year treasury note with a 4.375% yield
payable semi annually. The current yield on the same duration note
is 5%. I have a .9% loss on my current note. Should I roll to a new
2 year note at the higher yield or hold on to current one until
maturity?
Answer: To determine whether you should roll your current 2-year
Treasury note into a new 2-year note with a higher yield or hold
onto your current one until maturity, you should consider a few
factors:
Current Yield vs. Yield at Purchase:
Your current note has a yield of 4.375%, while the new 2-year
note offers a yield of 5%. This suggests that the new note would
provide a higher return if held to maturity.
The .9% Loss:
You mentioned that you have a 0.9% loss on your current note.
It's important to clarify whether this loss is realized or
unrealized. If it's an unrealized loss (meaning you haven't sold
the note yet), you might want to consider if you are comfortable
holding the note until maturity or if you expect the loss to widen
further.
Time to Maturity:
Consider how much time is left until your current note matures.
If it's close to maturity, you might decide to hold onto it,
especially if the loss isn't significant and you believe that
interest rates won't rise dramatically in the short term.
Future Interest Rate Expectations:
Evaluate your expectations for future interest rates. If you
believe that interest rates will continue to rise, locking in a
higher yield with the new note may be more attractive. However, if
you expect interest rates to stabilize or even decrease, holding
onto your current note may make more sense.
Liquidity Needs:
Consider whether you have any immediate liquidity needs. If you
need access to the invested funds in the near future, you might
prioritize that over maximizing yield.
Ultimately, the decision to roll over your current note or hold
it until maturity depends on your individual financial goals, risk
tolerance, and market expectations. You may want to consult with a
financial advisor who can provide personalized advice based on your
specific situation and objectives.
Posted by frtaylor on 28th of Sep 2023 at 11:19 pm
Matt or Steve, would you pls comment on the pattern that I see
on HYG: "M" topping pattern, with July 13 and Sept 1 being
the left and right shoulders of the "M." Is it not true that once
the middle dip of the M is breached, you shouldn't see price go
back above it, or much above it? If so, and if the pattern plays
out, price should drop pretty quickly here, maybe after testing and
failing at the 9ema - ?
Technically I emailed yesterday that the RSI oversold took a
long on ES/MES, but today it officially went long. Better prices
yesterday though obviously
again a lot of sub systems are in positions across SPY and
ES
Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Sep 2023 at 02:53 pm
Giving each employee a new vehicle every 5 or 6 years, for free,
would probably be less expensive than accepting their current
demands....I think a LOT less expensive. And it would attract a TON
of workers that might not otherwise consider the job. People love
their cars in America! Right now workers say they get a 10%
reduction from sticker price.
Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Sep 2023 at 02:48 pm
SPX - touched the top of the steep downtrend channel, printed a
demark 9 and pulled back a little. Hard to say if we have one more
push down before breaking the channel for what I think will be a
wave 4 (the bearish count). Channel is steep and narrow, it
could be redrawn after a minor break.
Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Sep 2023 at 02:21 pm
They keep bringing on people that say "it's ridiculous that
we're building cars that we can't even afford to buy." Lol.
Can you imagine if that bankrupt thought process was extended
across the economy? Would have to have rich women working in watch
and handbag factories...just to start with. Silly argument.
Socialism breaks down pretty quickly when common sense is
injected.
I think most workers should be able to afford a new car at
some point, if they work hard and save up. But, I don't see any
path to saying they are entitled to be able to afford a 70K car
(which is what one of the UAW picketers was saying). I know I
can't afford that! I settled for a 50K truck....and it's the most
expensive vehicle I've ever bought, by a long shot....and I'm 50
with multiple degrees that I worked my butt off to achieve. Is it
unfair that I can't buy a 70K vehicle? I guess not...because I
don't build them?
great comment! lets talk about my 2007 Ford F150 FX4
custom.....likely never buy another, so preserving it.
I'm 60 with multiple degrees. My truck would go $75k
new!
Posted by DigiNomad on 29th of Sep 2023 at 03:05 am
I prefer Tacoma's myself, but that those FX4's are sweet trucks
also! I drove my truck into Baja, about 2 hours south of
Ensenada, a couple of weeks ago and spent a few days putting
it through its paces off road. It will probably never be clean
again...dirt ended up in places I didn't know dirt could end
up...but it kicked ass down there. Good times.
Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Sep 2023 at 02:43 pm
Haha. That would be kinda funny. Those companies are
screwed...again. Almost worthless options...but most wouldn't know
that. I remember talking to a UBER driver a couple of years
ago when Cali was contemplating the laws governing gig workers. He
was completely shocked when I told him that UBER was losing a
billion per quarter....so I showed him on my phone. The
typical worker thinks there company is rolling in it and can never
go bankrupt....just being greedy by not paying them more.
I used to have a lot of those 1 oz Pamps, and I've had a bunch
of 10 ounce bars as well. The perth mint bars are nice as well. As
far as the coins I like the gold buffalos but they come with more
of a premium. The gold maples are really good price
I sold about 95% of my physical gold bars and coins back in late
April - perfect timing! I have not bought them back yet
I still have one of those 100 oz silver bars - it's really a
brick, similar size dimensions
funny I've heard of people painting them black then using them
as a door stop - can have 100s of people come through the house and
no one pay attention to them or even think of taking them because
of their disguise LOL
Chat GPT came up with
Posted by DigiNomad on 29th of Sep 2023 at 02:50 am
Chat GPT came up with basically the same answer I was thinking for this question, but I was still amazed at how quickly it produced the answer. FA's everywhere crossing their fingers and hoping people don't get too familiar and comfortable asking LLM's questions! The only flaw I could spot in Chat GPT's logic is that it didn't put together that the loss was unrealized. If it was realized, then the question to roll or not to roll would be a moot point. Still impressive.
Question: I have a 2 year treasury note with a 4.375% yield payable semi annually. The current yield on the same duration note is 5%. I have a .9% loss on my current note. Should I roll to a new 2 year note at the higher yield or hold on to current one until maturity?
Answer: To determine whether you should roll your current 2-year Treasury note into a new 2-year note with a higher yield or hold onto your current one until maturity, you should consider a few factors:
Current Yield vs. Yield at Purchase:
The .9% Loss:
Time to Maturity:
Future Interest Rate Expectations:
Liquidity Needs:
Ultimately, the decision to roll over your current note or hold it until maturity depends on your individual financial goals, risk tolerance, and market expectations. You may want to consult with a financial advisor who can provide personalized advice based on your specific situation and objectives.
Matt or Steve, would you
Posted by frtaylor on 28th of Sep 2023 at 11:19 pm
Matt or Steve, would you pls comment on the pattern that I see on HYG: "M" topping pattern, with July 13 and Sept 1 being the left and right shoulders of the "M." Is it not true that once the middle dip of the M is breached, you shouldn't see price go back above it, or much above it? If so, and if the pattern plays out, price should drop pretty quickly here, maybe after testing and failing at the 9ema - ?
2 nice setups from Wednesday's newsletter
Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2023 at 10:56 pm
CAMT - Chart Link- had nice day
GPCR - Chart Link-
I caught CAMT after confirmed
Posted by steveo on 29th of Sep 2023 at 12:10 am
I caught CAMT after confirmed breakout, so far so good
Thursday Newsletter
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2023 at 07:03 pm
Thursday Newsletter
SPY and ES mean reversion systems: RSI oversold triggered on MES
Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2023 at 07:00 pm
Technically I emailed yesterday that the RSI oversold took a long on ES/MES, but today it officially went long. Better prices yesterday though obviously
again a lot of sub systems are in positions across SPY and ES
CORN daily and hourly Hourly has
Posted by foody518 on 28th of Sep 2023 at 05:42 pm
CORN daily and hourly
Hourly has cleared all the various moving averages
Thanks - next levels above
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2023 at 06:05 pm
Thanks - next levels above are 50 day MA at 22.60 and prior high 22.70
GOLD ? some shares
Posted by dragonfly28 on 28th of Sep 2023 at 05:05 pm
GOLD ? some shares were firming up in the afternoon - EQX, AG OR NFGC FSM, DRD , GDXU
Is this the low in
Posted by rbreese on 28th of Sep 2023 at 04:20 pm
Is this the low in TLT ? seems to have bounced nicely . With a hammer
IYT - morning star pattern
Posted by frtaylor on 28th of Sep 2023 at 04:20 pm
IYT - morning star pattern on daily chart. A lot of resistance overhead, w/ various moving averages.
Note Powell speaks 4pm (non
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2023 at 03:53 pm
Note Powell speaks 4pm (non monetary related though) which is possible catalyst.
FED'S POWELL DOESN'T ADDRESS RATES
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2023 at 05:09 pm
FED'S POWELL DOESN'T ADDRESS RATES OR ECONOMY OUTLOOK.
Thanks for all the charts
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2023 at 03:31 pm
Thanks for all the charts guys
Giving each employee a new
Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Sep 2023 at 02:53 pm
Giving each employee a new vehicle every 5 or 6 years, for free, would probably be less expensive than accepting their current demands....I think a LOT less expensive. And it would attract a TON of workers that might not otherwise consider the job. People love their cars in America! Right now workers say they get a 10% reduction from sticker price.
When does Powell speak today
Posted by Glad on 28th of Sep 2023 at 02:53 pm
When does Powell speak today or tomorrow?
He speaks at the closing
Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Sep 2023 at 02:54 pm
He speaks at the closing bell - 4 PM EST
Powell 🙀. Should I hide
Posted by Glad on 28th of Sep 2023 at 03:26 pm
Powell 🙀. Should I hide under my desk ?
i never thought we get
Posted by srusso1 on 28th of Sep 2023 at 03:29 pm
i never thought we get this bounce going into the close. in SPX.
Now that's more like it.
Posted by srusso1 on 28th of Sep 2023 at 03:34 pm
Now that's more like it.
SPX - touched the top
Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Sep 2023 at 02:48 pm
SPX - touched the top of the steep downtrend channel, printed a demark 9 and pulled back a little. Hard to say if we have one more push down before breaking the channel for what I think will be a wave 4 (the bearish count). Channel is steep and narrow, it could be redrawn after a minor break.
Is there really anything JPow
Posted by shellson2 on 28th of Sep 2023 at 02:41 pm
Is there really anything JPow can say that would give market a lift?
Right now, Powell is a
Posted by Glad on 28th of Sep 2023 at 02:42 pm
Right now, Powell is a hammer and everything he sees looks like a nail
SPX 5 with Fibs
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2023 at 02:24 pm
$SPX - Chart Link
They keep bringing on people
Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Sep 2023 at 02:21 pm
They keep bringing on people that say "it's ridiculous that we're building cars that we can't even afford to buy." Lol. Can you imagine if that bankrupt thought process was extended across the economy? Would have to have rich women working in watch and handbag factories...just to start with. Silly argument. Socialism breaks down pretty quickly when common sense is injected.
I think most workers should be able to afford a new car at some point, if they work hard and save up. But, I don't see any path to saying they are entitled to be able to afford a 70K car (which is what one of the UAW picketers was saying). I know I can't afford that! I settled for a 50K truck....and it's the most expensive vehicle I've ever bought, by a long shot....and I'm 50 with multiple degrees that I worked my butt off to achieve. Is it unfair that I can't buy a 70K vehicle? I guess not...because I don't build them?
great comment! lets talk about
Posted by steveo on 29th of Sep 2023 at 12:16 am
great comment! lets talk about my 2007 Ford F150 FX4 custom.....likely never buy another, so preserving it. I'm 60 with multiple degrees. My truck would go $75k new!
I prefer Tacoma's myself, but
Posted by DigiNomad on 29th of Sep 2023 at 03:05 am
I prefer Tacoma's myself, but that those FX4's are sweet trucks also! I drove my truck into Baja, about 2 hours south of Ensenada, a couple of weeks ago and spent a few days putting it through its paces off road. It will probably never be clean again...dirt ended up in places I didn't know dirt could end up...but it kicked ass down there. Good times.
Why not give them stock
Posted by Glad on 28th of Sep 2023 at 02:37 pm
Why not give them stock options, instead of salary increases same as the guys in the C suite
Haha. That would be kinda
Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Sep 2023 at 02:43 pm
Haha. That would be kinda funny. Those companies are screwed...again. Almost worthless options...but most wouldn't know that. I remember talking to a UBER driver a couple of years ago when Cali was contemplating the laws governing gig workers. He was completely shocked when I told him that UBER was losing a billion per quarter....so I showed him on my phone. The typical worker thinks there company is rolling in it and can never go bankrupt....just being greedy by not paying them more.
HYG - could be an
Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Sep 2023 at 01:55 pm
HYG - could be an objective short if it climbs further toward the recently broken trendline.
Costco Gold Bar
Posted by steve on 28th of Sep 2023 at 01:55 pm
I used to have a
Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2023 at 01:58 pm
I used to have a lot of those 1 oz Pamps, and I've had a bunch of 10 ounce bars as well. The perth mint bars are nice as well. As far as the coins I like the gold buffalos but they come with more of a premium. The gold maples are really good price
I sold about 95% of my physical gold bars and coins back in late April - perfect timing! I have not bought them back yet
I still have one of
Posted by matt on 28th of Sep 2023 at 02:01 pm
I still have one of those 100 oz silver bars - it's really a brick, similar size dimensions
funny I've heard of people painting them black then using them as a door stop - can have 100s of people come through the house and no one pay attention to them or even think of taking them because of their disguise LOL
Energy stocks reversed .... following
Posted by mla127 on 28th of Sep 2023 at 01:50 pm
Energy stocks reversed .... following oil .... getting tired a bit here short term IMHO ... looking for DRIP / ERY ....