SPY 2 hour - if my model holds up, the slope projects 570 around
October 4th. Feels like it will do that by tomorrow (and it
has achieved targets faster than projected in recent past), but
there will probably be at least some back and fill between now and
then. Or we could finally be in Rao Pauls predicted "banana zone"
where prices go parabolic beyond any historical norms or what
people thought could be possible. I think we've been in that
zone for years, but he thinks the real party is still to
come.
Bought some TCPC in my Roth this week to reduce the volatility
and the trading. So now it's down 2.3% today. Do I need
to put in a stop like all the other holdings?
Looks increasingly likely that the Fed is going to start an
easing cycle next Wednesday at all time highs in the equity
indexes, firm to slightly rising inflation (if you believe Gov
data), and 6 weeks out from a major election. The press conference
commentary should be interesting! The ultra wealthy are
essentially demanding either 50 basis points or super dovish speak
to go with 25. They will probably get what they demand (super
dove speak from Jerome - 50 is off the table).
Nice candle. Maybe everyone realizing the above at about the
same time and deciding to ease up a bit on the squeeze until we
actually get the juice?
Posted by mastermind on 12th of Sep 2024 at 02:54 pm
The market and the election are not factors that they are to
consider when making their interest rate decisions. The dual
mandate involves inflation and employment. If they were to defer
their decision because the election is coming, that in itself would
be a political move.
Hard to argue with this standard CNBC talking point in today's
world (don't want to get cancelled). But not everyone has the
same opinion about Fed independence and their impartial, non
partisan, god like approach. The vast majority of their
employees are registered in the same party. I believe it's over 70%
and the rest are registered as independents and a very small, less
than 10%, are registered with the GOP (there are actual peer
reviewed studies on this topic available online....I'm guessing
based on reading many months ago...please fact check me). But maybe
this particular herd of PhD's is so amazingly intelligent and
devoted to their craft and their duty to impartiality that they
avoid any alignment with their strongly held beliefs in their
personal political lives? You never know.
IBM Updated
Posted by steve on 12th of Sep 2024 at 10:06 pm
IBM - Chart Link- Watchlist name still running by simply riding the 9 day EMA higher
Shorted that GC pump 2392/95
Posted by steve on 12th of Sep 2024 at 09:48 pm
Shorted that GC pump 2392/95 and trailing down now - trimmed 2588/89 and stops on runners
Crude Oil could be poised
Posted by steve on 12th of Sep 2024 at 08:39 pm
Crude Oil could be poised for bounce
Fed fund futures now pricing
Posted by steve on 12th of Sep 2024 at 08:38 pm
Fed fund futures now pricing in 40% chance of 50 Bps cut increasing from 14% yesterday
Thursday Newsletter
Posted by steve on 12th of Sep 2024 at 06:07 pm
Thursday Newsletter
SPY 2 hour - if
Posted by bthefnd on 12th of Sep 2024 at 05:23 pm
SPY 2 hour - if my model holds up, the slope projects 570 around October 4th. Feels like it will do that by tomorrow (and it has achieved targets faster than projected in recent past), but there will probably be at least some back and fill between now and then. Or we could finally be in Rao Pauls predicted "banana zone" where prices go parabolic beyond any historical norms or what people thought could be possible. I think we've been in that zone for years, but he thinks the real party is still to come.
Matt, you might want to
Posted by brophy on 12th of Sep 2024 at 04:19 pm
Matt, you might want to consider BIDU in your BPT basket. It's a good trader.
ADBE hit
Posted by steve on 12th of Sep 2024 at 04:08 pm
ADBE hit
Bought some TCPC in my
Posted by hubrick on 12th of Sep 2024 at 04:02 pm
Bought some TCPC in my Roth this week to reduce the volatility and the trading. So now it's down 2.3% today. Do I need to put in a stop like all the other holdings?
YUMC
Posted by matt on 12th of Sep 2024 at 04:00 pm
YUMC - Chart Link man this thing gotta pop soon, volume really picked up today finally
CRDF follow up
Posted by matt on 12th of Sep 2024 at 03:54 pm
CRDF - Chart Link older idea I forget about, finally popped, had a very nice base
SPY and ES mean reversion systems update
Posted by matt on 12th of Sep 2024 at 03:49 pm
NO changes - the RSI 40 system will continue to hold - remember the avg hold time is about 13 days on that system
also remember we kept 1/2 of the SPY trend pullback position
Thanks Matt
Posted by bp17 on 12th of Sep 2024 at 03:53 pm
Thanks Matt
NAAIM exposure index 71.93 up
Posted by rbreese on 12th of Sep 2024 at 03:47 pm
NAAIM exposure index 71.93 up from 70.93. . Very little change and in the middle of annual range. 102 to about 55. for last year.
Palladium super nice - I'm finally back, Mom is okay
Posted by matt on 12th of Sep 2024 at 03:44 pm
PALL - Chart Link- This thing could run for a while
anyway I'm finally back, don't worry mom is okay, didn't seem to break anything. We all deal with these things when parents are older.
good to hear she will
Posted by morton7 on 12th of Sep 2024 at 05:03 pm
good to hear she will be ok
Good luck, took care of
Posted by ruidoso on 12th of Sep 2024 at 03:53 pm
Good luck, took care of my grandmother for 17 years.... Broke hip twice, same hip. passed at 103:). again good luck
GEV Updated
Posted by steve on 12th of Sep 2024 at 03:43 pm
GEV - Chart Link - held up well while I was traveling and now has pushed to highs
yes sir, still holding... . what
Posted by morton7 on 12th of Sep 2024 at 04:45 pm
yes sir, still holding... . what a day!
AVGO Updated
Posted by steve on 12th of Sep 2024 at 03:40 pm
AVGO - Chart Link - big move now so protect
Looks increasingly likely that the
Posted by bthefnd on 12th of Sep 2024 at 02:49 pm
Looks increasingly likely that the Fed is going to start an easing cycle next Wednesday at all time highs in the equity indexes, firm to slightly rising inflation (if you believe Gov data), and 6 weeks out from a major election. The press conference commentary should be interesting! The ultra wealthy are essentially demanding either 50 basis points or super dovish speak to go with 25. They will probably get what they demand (super dove speak from Jerome - 50 is off the table).
Nice candle. Maybe everyone realizing the above at about the same time and deciding to ease up a bit on the squeeze until we actually get the juice?
The market and the election
Posted by mastermind on 12th of Sep 2024 at 02:54 pm
The market and the election are not factors that they are to consider when making their interest rate decisions. The dual mandate involves inflation and employment. If they were to defer their decision because the election is coming, that in itself would be a political move.
Hard to argue with this
Posted by bthefnd on 12th of Sep 2024 at 03:02 pm
Hard to argue with this standard CNBC talking point in today's world (don't want to get cancelled). But not everyone has the same opinion about Fed independence and their impartial, non partisan, god like approach. The vast majority of their employees are registered in the same party. I believe it's over 70% and the rest are registered as independents and a very small, less than 10%, are registered with the GOP (there are actual peer reviewed studies on this topic available online....I'm guessing based on reading many months ago...please fact check me). But maybe this particular herd of PhD's is so amazingly intelligent and devoted to their craft and their duty to impartiality that they avoid any alignment with their strongly held beliefs in their personal political lives? You never know.
SACH daily nice dividend but
Posted by morton7 on 12th of Sep 2024 at 02:46 pm
SACH daily nice dividend but do your own research on this one
stockcharts.com
SACH | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
Create advanced interactive price charts for SACH, with a wide variety of chart types, technical indicators, overlays, and annotation tools.
MUSA (member suggestion I believe)
Posted by macksurf on 12th of Sep 2024 at 02:35 pm
MUSA (member suggestion I believe) having a breakout on not so good volume today.
some bitcoin leveraged plays up
Posted by dragonfly28 on 12th of Sep 2024 at 02:28 pm
some bitcoin leveraged plays up off the bottom - BITX CONL BITU