Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of Feb 2024 at 09:46 am
How do you add so many jobs, keep the participation rate steady
and not actually LOWER the unemployment rate? Is it Immigration?
~10 million entered in the last few years (and those are the
numbers actually counted. We don't know how many weren't
counted...obviously).
Anyway, not surprisingly, the media isn't touching this
potential angle with a 10 foot pole. Simple math would
suggest there's a big missing variable or the unemployment would
actually be lower, not steady.
Posted by icecoldjones on 2nd of Feb 2024 at 09:59 am
I couldn't agree more Digi, and I'm not sure how the calculation
works but could it just be that so many people are grabbing second
jobs these days that very few that were unemployed are now employed
but actually those that were already employed just grabbed second
jobs increasing the number of jobs taken in the US?!?! No
clue but it doesn't seem to jive unless we did just hand out free
low paying jobs to all migrants into the country.
Posted by jhbernstein on 2nd of Feb 2024 at 10:11 am
Normally I'd say multiple job holders is the only way to explain
it, but that's not what happened last month. Multiple job holders
actually ticked down in Jan. So that ain't it. Something doesn't
add up.
Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of Feb 2024 at 10:31 am
From a trading perspective, today's number has to be bullish.
Let's just assume job gains are tied to massive immigration
(for the sake of the argument) and also assume that employment law
when it comes to employing ineligible migrants in on hold.
That would leave millions of new people willing to accept
jobs at wages that eligible to work Americans otherwise wouldn't
accept. That's great for margins and the market!
Whether it's great for American workers on the whole is
something more appropriate for a twitter discussion.
If it's true that each person gets a 5K debit card before
being released into American cities, at just 5 million migrants,
that would be 25 billion almost guaranteed to be spent
quickly...further stimulating the economy with debt.
Imagine how high the average hourly wage number would have
jumped if it weren't for the immigration effect?
Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of Feb 2024 at 11:02 am
I heard it reported by someone touring the border and
interviewing migrants. Doesn't mean it's factual, but if you were
putting people on buses and dropping them in cities, in what
scenario would you not make sure they had some money to spend? Can
you imagine the outrage by the cities receiving them if they were
literally starving in the streets? They wouldn't do it that
way....just common sense.
Pretty simple really. Keep adding gov't jobs, and offer student
loan forgiveness to ensure cont'd applicants. and your ttl.
employment numbers will never go down.
May be part of the picture - ZH has had charts showing the
number of jobs to native born workers has been flat since pre-Covid
crash. Net new job creation has gone to foreign born workers.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/inside-catastrophic-jobs-report-record-15-million-crash-full-time-jobs-multiple-jobholders
Posted by timebandit on 2nd of Feb 2024 at 11:21 am
The people I know who run factories tell me that foreign born
workers work harder and for less than native born. Native born on
the whole are fatter, lazier, and dumber than the foreign born
workers they hire. Take it for what it's worth. I personally don't
care who they hire. I just think it's interesting when I hear
people complaining about immigrants displacing native born workers.
There's a reason for it.
(Note: the foreign born workers they hire are legal, mostly
through programs that place refugees in jobs. These factory
managers participate in those programs because the results are so
good for their productivity and employee retention.)
Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of Feb 2024 at 11:24 am
Lol - this would get you lynched in Europe and in an American
union meeting. "Citizens" have earned the right to be the fatter,
lazier, dumber and demand higher wages
*collectively earned (but the earned part was semi tongue in
cheek). I fought for my country and lost some good friends in the
process. We did it so the rest of the nation didn't have
to.
Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of Feb 2024 at 10:09 am
I think the standard practice is to put them on a bus with a 5K
debit card from the Fed Gov (from reporting on the subject). But I
have heard local news stories about how nonprofits are busily
engaged helping migrants find work. It's a neat trick for people
that aren't legally eligible for employment in the U.S. However, I
think those employment laws have found their way to the trash bin
of U.S. history.... they probably fell in right next to shoplifting
laws. I mean, when was the last time you heard about an ICE
raid?
I was speaking to a friend in a multibillion fund. The general
perception on Wall Street is that these illegal immigrants could
actually help inflation under control with soaring wages. I have
not idea if that makes sense because a lot of federal money goes to
support these people at the same time
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How do you add so
Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of Feb 2024 at 09:46 am
How do you add so many jobs, keep the participation rate steady and not actually LOWER the unemployment rate? Is it Immigration? ~10 million entered in the last few years (and those are the numbers actually counted. We don't know how many weren't counted...obviously).
Anyway, not surprisingly, the media isn't touching this potential angle with a 10 foot pole. Simple math would suggest there's a big missing variable or the unemployment would actually be lower, not steady.
I couldn't agree more Digi,
Posted by icecoldjones on 2nd of Feb 2024 at 09:59 am
I couldn't agree more Digi, and I'm not sure how the calculation works but could it just be that so many people are grabbing second jobs these days that very few that were unemployed are now employed but actually those that were already employed just grabbed second jobs increasing the number of jobs taken in the US?!?! No clue but it doesn't seem to jive unless we did just hand out free low paying jobs to all migrants into the country.
Normally I'd say multiple job
Posted by jhbernstein on 2nd of Feb 2024 at 10:11 am
Normally I'd say multiple job holders is the only way to explain it, but that's not what happened last month. Multiple job holders actually ticked down in Jan. So that ain't it. Something doesn't add up.
Surprisingly, this also is a
Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of Feb 2024 at 10:15 am
Surprisingly, this also is a great chart for an incumbent President. Every number is ideal. Just don't try and add the parts to recreate the sum.
From a trading perspective, today's
Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of Feb 2024 at 10:31 am
From a trading perspective, today's number has to be bullish. Let's just assume job gains are tied to massive immigration (for the sake of the argument) and also assume that employment law when it comes to employing ineligible migrants in on hold. That would leave millions of new people willing to accept jobs at wages that eligible to work Americans otherwise wouldn't accept. That's great for margins and the market! Whether it's great for American workers on the whole is something more appropriate for a twitter discussion.
If it's true that each person gets a 5K debit card before being released into American cities, at just 5 million migrants, that would be 25 billion almost guaranteed to be spent quickly...further stimulating the economy with debt.
Imagine how high the average hourly wage number would have jumped if it weren't for the immigration effect?
But there was no evidence
Posted by mastermind on 2nd of Feb 2024 at 10:49 am
But there was no evidence of those $5k debit cards. Only 3rd hand hearsay from an aspiring Senate candidate in AZ.
I heard it reported by
Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of Feb 2024 at 11:02 am
I heard it reported by someone touring the border and interviewing migrants. Doesn't mean it's factual, but if you were putting people on buses and dropping them in cities, in what scenario would you not make sure they had some money to spend? Can you imagine the outrage by the cities receiving them if they were literally starving in the streets? They wouldn't do it that way....just common sense.
Pretty simple really. Keep adding
Posted by brophy on 2nd of Feb 2024 at 10:37 am
Pretty simple really. Keep adding gov't jobs, and offer student loan forgiveness to ensure cont'd applicants. and your ttl. employment numbers will never go down.
May be part of the
Posted by foody518 on 2nd of Feb 2024 at 10:28 am
May be part of the picture - ZH has had charts showing the number of jobs to native born workers has been flat since pre-Covid crash. Net new job creation has gone to foreign born workers.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/inside-catastrophic-jobs-report-record-15-million-crash-full-time-jobs-multiple-jobholders
The people I know who
Posted by timebandit on 2nd of Feb 2024 at 11:21 am
The people I know who run factories tell me that foreign born workers work harder and for less than native born. Native born on the whole are fatter, lazier, and dumber than the foreign born workers they hire. Take it for what it's worth. I personally don't care who they hire. I just think it's interesting when I hear people complaining about immigrants displacing native born workers. There's a reason for it.
(Note: the foreign born workers they hire are legal, mostly through programs that place refugees in jobs. These factory managers participate in those programs because the results are so good for their productivity and employee retention.)
Lol - this would get
Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of Feb 2024 at 11:24 am
Lol - this would get you lynched in Europe and in an American union meeting. "Citizens" have earned the right to be the fatter, lazier, dumber and demand higher wages
*collectively earned (but the earned part was semi tongue in cheek). I fought for my country and lost some good friends in the process. We did it so the rest of the nation didn't have to.
Bingo!
Posted by timebandit on 2nd of Feb 2024 at 11:25 am
Bingo!
yep exactly Biden Demands supermarkets cut
Posted by matt on 2nd of Feb 2024 at 10:09 am
yep exactly
Biden Demands supermarkets cut soaring grocery prices that threaten his re-election
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13034023/ayanna-pressley-says-walgreens-racist-store-closures-high-crime-areas.html
clown world LOL blame the effect not the cause LOL
dailymail.co.uk
That's not how the economy works, Joe! Biden demands supermarkets cut soaring grocery prices that threaten his re-election - even though reasons for spikes are beyond stores' control | Daily Mail Online
Joe Biden has suggested supermarkets should defy the laws of supply and demand to lower soaring prices that threaten his chances of re-election.
I think the standard practice
Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of Feb 2024 at 10:09 am
I think the standard practice is to put them on a bus with a 5K debit card from the Fed Gov (from reporting on the subject). But I have heard local news stories about how nonprofits are busily engaged helping migrants find work. It's a neat trick for people that aren't legally eligible for employment in the U.S. However, I think those employment laws have found their way to the trash bin of U.S. history.... they probably fell in right next to shoplifting laws. I mean, when was the last time you heard about an ICE raid?
I was speaking to a
Posted by arun on 2nd of Feb 2024 at 10:30 am
I was speaking to a friend in a multibillion fund. The general perception on Wall Street is that these illegal immigrants could actually help inflation under control with soaring wages. I have not idea if that makes sense because a lot of federal money goes to support these people at the same time