LNC.  up 31% today.   Was my big trade of the day.   Bought in  yesterday, as this great company was thrown out with the bath water.  The liquidation value of this stock in around $30/share.  Price dislocations create huge opportunities.   Also was a good day to unload a couple of turds at break even.  

$ES - 2187.   We pong off of there. 

My wife has a friend who's husband is a Doomsday Prepper type.  He has been hoarding TP for years in his garage.  This is his moment.  But then will have to wait another 100 years for another moment like this.   My choice, is to order it online and get it when I need it (around 3-5 days has been my average even during this crisis and if that option runs out,  I have plenty of trees with leaves and wash rags).   Run out of food, then I go Pheasant, duck or Deer hunting and fishing, just like our ancestors did).  People are nuts today with all the hoarding, do not have any survival skills. 

That will be next on the Pro Poker tournaments.  Putting in rolls of TP instead of chips.   

I believe like the stock markets we are "overshooting" this virus.  The panic, fear, hysteria is way overblown.    The evidence shows that.  Just like the markets, I stick with math and data to guide me not some blowhard on CNBC to tell me when to "Sell" or "Buy, Buy, Buy" with a button.   Herd mentality is usually wrong in the end.   And my last thing, If and when this virus starts to lose steam, and we get a handle on it.  We could see markets correct to a Wave 4, then a tear your face off to new highs by the end of the year.  Now that seems a bit crazy with how far the markets have sold off, but corrections are always painful.    I am not trading on this, but just like to think differently sometimes and play out all scenarios. 

That is a standard lateral flow test.   99% of lateral flow tests, if you get a negative result and the patient is "symptomatic" you have to send out to a reference lab for confirmation (typically takes 3 days to get that confirmation results back).   That test in not Molecular technology.     It is good for a first line of testing but the accuracy of lateral flow tests for example with Flu A/B is only 50%.    Molecular technology actually incubates the samples strips the RNA and amplifies it to get an early detection of the virus,    There is a difference in testing methodologies.    

Ponder this:   

Steve - I distribute all of them.  TMO, Cepheid, Roche, Abbott,  Siemens, etc...the great thing is that all of the manufacturers of lab analyzers will be able to offer solutions.

TMO deals with large hospital labs.  The make analyzers for large facilities.  Cepheid's main target is small-moderate private office.  Different targets. 

Cant you send it to my community inbox here?  Thanks

Steve - I have lived in the medical lab world for over 30 years, now technology is also changing and so I stay humble.   A pin prick at home sounds great but there have been tests out there that have tried this method and failed.  I would have to see how you can reproduce good results with it.   Have to run linearity studies against a reference lab.  The Gold standard for any virus that first attacks your nasal passageways ( Covid-19 is transmitted via droplets in the air?)  , so the mucus in your nasal/pharyngeal area is going to have the presence of the virus first.   Once it is in your bloodstream you would have a significant viral load (via finger stick).  

The Cepheid is PCR technology that takes the nasal swab and amplifies the virus a billion times in minutes.  Also the CDC is saying you must also test the patient for Flu A/B and RSV.  The Cepheid can test for Flu A/B, Strep A and RSV with one nasal swab.   So at point of care you can test a patient for all of these and make a clinical definitive diagnosis.   What is your kid tests neg for Covid-19 but has RSV?  you wont know it if you are only testing for one thing.   MD's can have these analyzers in their office, and have trained staff to run the test. The MD also will get reimbursed for the tests so it adds an additional revenue stream.   Majority of MD's do not outright purchase the analyzer, they lease them and make a nice profit with the reimbursements ( I have friends that runs these already).    The Cepheid analyzer you can add many additional cells too if your volume picks up.   This will reduce the burden on Hospitals.   The finger stick home test sounds good in theory but not sure the over all effectiveness.    

All commerce is shutting down bit by bit, as edicts come down daily from those in authority. We have to ask the question, since it relates strongly to the future of markets, at what point is the risk of shutting down economic commerce greater to the demise of humanity than the virus we hear about? At this point, in the U.S., 340 people have died from the coronavirus out of a population of 331.6 million. That works out to roughly one out of every one million people. There are 13,050 deaths globally from the coronavirus out of a population of $7.8 billion. That is about 1.5 out of every million people. These are the exact same odds as getting struck by lightning. Does this require the complete shutdown of all world economies?

To put this in perspective, there were 12,000 deaths (some estimates are as high as 30,000) in the U.S. last year from the flu. There were roughly 4,500 deaths in the U.S. last year from the common cold (rhinovirus). Was the entire global economy shut down from those diseases? No. Something is different in present situation. But what? The stress put upon humans from the complete shutdown of commerce can weaken immune systems to the point where they are far more susceptible to a myriad of death causing diseases than before. People are recovering who get the Coronavirus. Globally, right now, recoveries outnumbered deaths by a margin of 7.3 to 1. So, what gives?

Separately, the Food and Drug Administration announced on Saturday that it would permit a Silicon Valley company, Cepheid, to start selling a diagnostic test that could determine in about 5 minutes whether a patient has the virus that causes Covid-19.

The company’s chief medical officer, David Persing, said the tests would be compatible with systems it already had in place at thousands of hospitals and clinics, and that they were likely to hit the market late next week. He did not say how many would be available or how much they would cost.

DHR(Danaher) owns Cepheid that makes the Molecular diagnostic machine called "Gene-Xpert".   This can be done in a private MD offices with nasal swab.  Game changer because the test will be a confirmed test and will not need to be sent out for confirmation (it replicates the viru's RNA so that even if a patient is asymptomatic but has the virus, it will yield a positive.  Patient can know in 5 min if they have Covid-19.  

DHR has sold off hard with the whole market, could have a nice pop with this great news from one of the companies it owns.  

Interesting read.  It is hard to argue the facts when it goes into H1N1.  I have a colleague who's father died from it, they determined it by autopsy. 

Working overtime this weekend on my charts.    One thing that jumps out at me is "IWM".  The Russell never made new highs during the 2019 run.   It was still correcting, so what I have noticed  as of Friday (didnt sell off as much as the rest of the index's).   That IWM may have already hit its 3/5 wave down target.   And will be the first out of the gates for the next rally.   Keep your eye on it this week as it have bullish div on the 60 min.   Then we have OIL.   We need oil to rally for a good overall market rally.   USO looks like it is near a bottom, this week will give us some more clarity on the count.   

I agree on why we are being mandated to stay at home because we have a healthcare system that can not handle a large wave of sick people.   We are in a world aging population for the most part.  Italy has the oldest aging population, a lot of heavy smokers, very affectionate culture, antiquated health system = high mortality rate. 

Putting Covid-19 in perspective:  I know that it is a Novel virus and that fear of the un-known and a wide variety of information and mis-information does not make for a calm public.  I am going to compare Covid-19 to Influzena.   What we know today:  There are 24,142 reported cases of Covid-19 today in the US.  Their have been 114 deaths out of the 24,142 reported cases.  That gives us a current mortality rate of 0.21%.   I know that as we get more testing widely available we will see that a majority of people that test positive will not be hospitalized and have a bad "flu" like condition or mild cold".   This will give us a much lower mortality rate over time (my feelings are more realistic in the 0.1% range).  Now as with the FLU the highest % severly effected, will be people that are over 65 years old and or  immuno-compromised. 

Now lets compare this to Influzena 2018=2019 data:

490,600 people hospitalized for the flu.   34,200 deaths.   >65 years old accounted for 25,555 of the 34,200 death.   that is 48.7%.     

Watched it this am.  Encouraging.  I think the Fed Futures Fed rate is basically what I have for my wave counts going forward.  

Good for Gov Cuomo.   Leaders rise out of these situations.    Great news.  

The last couple of Mondays have been limit down so I am going to hold off from any friday buying, if anything cutting some things loose if i can.