I'm sorry my TS crashed at the close and also my wife informed
me that Illinois is going on lock down tomorrow, which means you
are supposed to stay home, so it's getting serious, I also got a
bunch of calls from family right at the close and after
I got TS back up looks like on SPY system the QE 3.2 bear long
took a 1st entry. So did the Bull Exhaustion on the
ES.
with it being 30 min after the cash close those could be entered
after hrs on ETF's. However given the situation on the weekend I'll
post more details about those, show all past history, draw downs
etc. I doubt anyone really in the mood to be entering here on
Friday after hrs now. I'll post that on weekend
I have not yet made that determination. I wasn't going to send
that on Friday considering how Friday's have been. I might
tomorrow. I also added the fix to the Trend/Pullback which I need
to discuss as well. But again the issue we have right now is these
unprecedented moves. Reversion to mean trades basically look
at past history, as a very simple example you might run a test and
find out that if the market is down 9 days in a row below the 9 EMA
that there's a 95% chance of a bounce, things like that. However
the moves in the market have been so extreme that some of those
statistics get blown out of the water that otherwise work in 99% of
market conditions. Again let's face it the real problem was
the Trend/Pullback, the CCI and QE BTS trades were fine, and were
profitable. The Trend/Pullback while the past trades worked
this move was too much of an outlier. However I've added new
secondary exit condition, which does lower the historical profit,
however adds protection by increasing the chances of an exit.
Here's a chart - the original and the new one. The new one shows it
exiting when we had that first small bounce in the downtrend just
like the CCI and QE BTS systems did. Basically what I added was a
condition to close the trade if price closed above the 7 SMA if the
momentum indicator is red. If the momentum indicator is green then
it will exit by it's normal conditions which is another indicator
getting over bought. Simply original system needed an indicator to
get overbought in order to exit, so I added the fast MA exit so
that there's now 2 potential exit opportunities instead of 1,
which greatly lowers the odds of getting stuck in a trade. On
the attached image you can see the old version at the top still in
a trade and the new one at the bottom. Again you can see how you
give up some profit on the new version by exit a couple past trades
earlier. However I'll take any day over the old one.
However even with that fast MA exit, you still have some
vulnerability. What if price didn't bounce to get over the 7
SMA? what if we had went straight down.
by the way on ES the Bear Long is finally showing a trigger, if
prices stay down for SPY then I imagine we'll see it for the SPY
tomorrow, I'd for sure send that out. The bear long has done a good
job about not triggering this whole time, it's VERY hard to
trigger
Also I continue to work on the trend DVT stuff. I added a bunch
of that to Steve's computer this afternoon and showed him a
prototype of the indicator, it's pretty cool you can pretty much
put it on any stock and it displays the DVT's, pretty cool, I still
have far to go however it's early early beta. Here's some examples
random charts with the indicator SPY daily, weekly, a silver stock,
TSLA, MSFT, AMD, AAPL - it plots the DVT stops if one was long
Any spy system subs getting
Posted by pep8261 on 20th of Mar 2020 at 04:14 pm
Any spy system subs getting close to going long?
I'm sorry my TS crashed
Posted by matt on 20th of Mar 2020 at 04:27 pm
I'm sorry my TS crashed at the close and also my wife informed me that Illinois is going on lock down tomorrow, which means you are supposed to stay home, so it's getting serious, I also got a bunch of calls from family right at the close and after
I got TS back up looks like on SPY system the QE 3.2 bear long took a 1st entry. So did the Bull Exhaustion on the ES.
with it being 30 min after the cash close those could be entered after hrs on ETF's. However given the situation on the weekend I'll post more details about those, show all past history, draw downs etc. I doubt anyone really in the mood to be entering here on Friday after hrs now. I'll post that on weekend
Hi Matt, Just curious if you're
Posted by focus175 on 22nd of Mar 2020 at 09:26 pm
Hi Matt,
Just curious if you're going to post the the QE 3.2 bear long on the live spy trades?
Thanks!
I have not yet made
Posted by matt on 22nd of Mar 2020 at 10:00 pm
I have not yet made that determination. I wasn't going to send that on Friday considering how Friday's have been. I might tomorrow. I also added the fix to the Trend/Pullback which I need to discuss as well. But again the issue we have right now is these unprecedented moves. Reversion to mean trades basically look at past history, as a very simple example you might run a test and find out that if the market is down 9 days in a row below the 9 EMA that there's a 95% chance of a bounce, things like that. However the moves in the market have been so extreme that some of those statistics get blown out of the water that otherwise work in 99% of market conditions. Again let's face it the real problem was the Trend/Pullback, the CCI and QE BTS trades were fine, and were profitable. The Trend/Pullback while the past trades worked this move was too much of an outlier. However I've added new secondary exit condition, which does lower the historical profit, however adds protection by increasing the chances of an exit. Here's a chart - the original and the new one. The new one shows it exiting when we had that first small bounce in the downtrend just like the CCI and QE BTS systems did. Basically what I added was a condition to close the trade if price closed above the 7 SMA if the momentum indicator is red. If the momentum indicator is green then it will exit by it's normal conditions which is another indicator getting over bought. Simply original system needed an indicator to get overbought in order to exit, so I added the fast MA exit so that there's now 2 potential exit opportunities instead of 1, which greatly lowers the odds of getting stuck in a trade. On the attached image you can see the old version at the top still in a trade and the new one at the bottom. Again you can see how you give up some profit on the new version by exit a couple past trades earlier. However I'll take any day over the old one.
However even with that fast MA exit, you still have some vulnerability. What if price didn't bounce to get over the 7 SMA? what if we had went straight down.
by the way on ES
Posted by matt on 22nd of Mar 2020 at 10:04 pm
by the way on ES the Bear Long is finally showing a trigger, if prices stay down for SPY then I imagine we'll see it for the SPY tomorrow, I'd for sure send that out. The bear long has done a good job about not triggering this whole time, it's VERY hard to trigger
A couple other things: Note I
Posted by matt on 22nd of Mar 2020 at 10:26 pm
A couple other things:
Note I added a weekly DVT to the DVT Trend system, here's the URL again
https://breakpointtrades.com/current_dvts/
Also I continue to work on the trend DVT stuff. I added a bunch of that to Steve's computer this afternoon and showed him a prototype of the indicator, it's pretty cool you can pretty much put it on any stock and it displays the DVT's, pretty cool, I still have far to go however it's early early beta. Here's some examples random charts with the indicator SPY daily, weekly, a silver stock, TSLA, MSFT, AMD, AAPL - it plots the DVT stops if one was long
very cool Matt, thanks for
Posted by morton7 on 23rd of Mar 2020 at 09:17 am
very cool Matt, thanks for all of your hard work. look forward to using in the future, stay well!
The last couple of Mondays
Posted by ssaffer on 20th of Mar 2020 at 07:04 pm
The last couple of Mondays have been limit down so I am going to hold off from any friday buying, if anything cutting some things loose if i can.
Yes and closing on a
Posted by retirefire on 20th of Mar 2020 at 07:25 pm
Yes and closing on a low this Friday
I have the statistical chart
Posted by retirefire on 20th of Mar 2020 at 06:36 pm
I have the statistical chart of systems you posted on around 3/3
Thanks MATT, Be safe everyone.
Posted by retirefire on 20th of Mar 2020 at 04:36 pm
Thanks MATT, Be safe everyone. Put on the armor .