Putting Covid-19 in perspective: I know that it is a Novel
virus and that fear of the un-known and a wide variety of
information and mis-information does not make for a calm public.
I am going to compare Covid-19 to Influzena. What we
know today: There are 24,142 reported cases of Covid-19 today
in the US. Their have been 114 deaths out of the 24,142
reported cases. That gives us a current mortality rate of
0.21%. I know that as we get more testing widely available
we will see that a majority of people that test positive will not
be hospitalized and have a bad "flu" like condition or mild cold".
This will give us a much lower mortality rate over time (my
feelings are more realistic in the 0.1% range). Now as with
the FLU the highest % severly effected, will be people that are
over 65 years old and or immuno-compromised.
Now lets compare this to Influzena 2018=2019 data:
490,600 people hospitalized for the flu. 34,200 deaths.
>65 years old accounted for 25,555 of the 34,200 death.
that is 48.7%.
This has been my mindset all along. All this insanity
over something that has a death rate of about 13000
worldwide so far compared to your figure of 34,200 deaths
from the average flu in only one season.
I'm not one to be a conspiracy theorist but really?? Its
hard to believe we know the whole truth about this (natural) virus
seemingly causing Rome to burn... my 2 cents!
Posted by skyhansen on 21st of Mar 2020 at 05:57 pm
I think you have to wait for a larger portion of the 24,142
reported cases to move from reported to either recovered or died to
calculate an accurate mortality. That will be much higher
than 0.1%. The worldwide tracker has a ration between
recovered and deceased that yields a mortality rate over 10%.
However, given many cases are also not confirmed, the
reported case numbers will be too low which means the actual
mortality rate will be lower than that. Bottom line: I
don’t think we have the data to know true mortality rate. We
do appear to have more accurate information on transmission and
evidence that the virus is 2-3x more transmittable than flu.
That means that even if the mortality rate is equivalent, the
health care system will be overwhelmed resulting in more deaths
than would otherwise occur.....and not only among people
contracting the virus. The social distancing and stay at home
orders are not in place for our safety, but to prevent the
healthcare system from being overwhelmed and thereby causing a much
higher death rate such as they are experiencing in Italy where the
ratio of recovered patients to deaths is 1:1 or a 50% death rate so
far in the population of diagnosed patients who have moved from
diagnosed to either recovered or dead.
I agree on why we are being mandated to stay at home because we
have a healthcare system that can not handle a large wave of sick
people. We are in a world aging population for the most
part. Italy has the oldest aging population, a lot of heavy
smokers, very affectionate culture, antiquated health system = high
mortality rate.
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Putting Covid-19 in perspective: I
Posted by ssaffer on 21st of Mar 2020 at 04:48 pm
Putting Covid-19 in perspective: I know that it is a Novel virus and that fear of the un-known and a wide variety of information and mis-information does not make for a calm public. I am going to compare Covid-19 to Influzena. What we know today: There are 24,142 reported cases of Covid-19 today in the US. Their have been 114 deaths out of the 24,142 reported cases. That gives us a current mortality rate of 0.21%. I know that as we get more testing widely available we will see that a majority of people that test positive will not be hospitalized and have a bad "flu" like condition or mild cold". This will give us a much lower mortality rate over time (my feelings are more realistic in the 0.1% range). Now as with the FLU the highest % severly effected, will be people that are over 65 years old and or immuno-compromised.
Now lets compare this to Influzena 2018=2019 data:
490,600 people hospitalized for the flu. 34,200 deaths. >65 years old accounted for 25,555 of the 34,200 death. that is 48.7%.
This has been my mindset
Posted by covers on 21st of Mar 2020 at 06:26 pm
This has been my mindset all along. All this insanity over something that has a death rate of about 13000 worldwide so far compared to your figure of 34,200 deaths from the average flu in only one season.
I'm not one to be a conspiracy theorist but really?? Its hard to believe we know the whole truth about this (natural) virus seemingly causing Rome to burn... my 2 cents!
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/03/21/political-health-the-motives-of-a-very-very-political-dr-fauci/ ...However, no-one is asking: what
Posted by retirefire on 21st of Mar 2020 at 11:49 pm
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/03/21/political-health-the-motives-of-a-very-very-political-dr-fauci/ ...However, no-one is asking: what is the current stress level on the healthcare system right now? Where are we in that capacity?… and what is normal capacity level during a high-level flu outbreak?… and Where are we when compared against that baseline?
Interesting read. It is hard
Posted by ssaffer on 22nd of Mar 2020 at 12:03 am
Interesting read. It is hard to argue the facts when it goes into H1N1. I have a colleague who's father died from it, they determined it by autopsy.
I think you have to
Posted by skyhansen on 21st of Mar 2020 at 05:57 pm
I think you have to wait for a larger portion of the 24,142 reported cases to move from reported to either recovered or died to calculate an accurate mortality. That will be much higher than 0.1%. The worldwide tracker has a ration between recovered and deceased that yields a mortality rate over 10%. However, given many cases are also not confirmed, the reported case numbers will be too low which means the actual mortality rate will be lower than that. Bottom line: I don’t think we have the data to know true mortality rate. We do appear to have more accurate information on transmission and evidence that the virus is 2-3x more transmittable than flu. That means that even if the mortality rate is equivalent, the health care system will be overwhelmed resulting in more deaths than would otherwise occur.....and not only among people contracting the virus. The social distancing and stay at home orders are not in place for our safety, but to prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed and thereby causing a much higher death rate such as they are experiencing in Italy where the ratio of recovered patients to deaths is 1:1 or a 50% death rate so far in the population of diagnosed patients who have moved from diagnosed to either recovered or dead.
I agree on why we
Posted by ssaffer on 21st of Mar 2020 at 06:54 pm
I agree on why we are being mandated to stay at home because we have a healthcare system that can not handle a large wave of sick people. We are in a world aging population for the most part. Italy has the oldest aging population, a lot of heavy smokers, very affectionate culture, antiquated health system = high mortality rate.