All commerce is shutting down

    Posted by ssaffer on 22nd of Mar 2020 at 11:10 am

    All commerce is shutting down bit by bit, as edicts come down daily from those in authority. We have to ask the question, since it relates strongly to the future of markets, at what point is the risk of shutting down economic commerce greater to the demise of humanity than the virus we hear about? At this point, in the U.S., 340 people have died from the coronavirus out of a population of 331.6 million. That works out to roughly one out of every one million people. There are 13,050 deaths globally from the coronavirus out of a population of $7.8 billion. That is about 1.5 out of every million people. These are the exact same odds as getting struck by lightning. Does this require the complete shutdown of all world economies?

    To put this in perspective, there were 12,000 deaths (some estimates are as high as 30,000) in the U.S. last year from the flu. There were roughly 4,500 deaths in the U.S. last year from the common cold (rhinovirus). Was the entire global economy shut down from those diseases? No. Something is different in present situation. But what? The stress put upon humans from the complete shutdown of commerce can weaken immune systems to the point where they are far more susceptible to a myriad of death causing diseases than before. People are recovering who get the Coronavirus. Globally, right now, recoveries outnumbered deaths by a margin of 7.3 to 1. So, what gives?

    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-evidence-over-hysteria 

    What gives? Hysteria.

    I believe like the stock

    Posted by ssaffer on 22nd of Mar 2020 at 12:11 pm

    I believe like the stock markets we are "overshooting" this virus.  The panic, fear, hysteria is way overblown.    The evidence shows that.  Just like the markets, I stick with math and data to guide me not some blowhard on CNBC to tell me when to "Sell" or "Buy, Buy, Buy" with a button.   Herd mentality is usually wrong in the end.   And my last thing, If and when this virus starts to lose steam, and we get a handle on it.  We could see markets correct to a Wave 4, then a tear your face off to new highs by the end of the year.  Now that seems a bit crazy with how far the markets have sold off, but corrections are always painful.    I am not trading on this, but just like to think differently sometimes and play out all scenarios. 

    THanks for your thoughts.  China

    Posted by blayden on 22nd of Mar 2020 at 10:12 pm

    THanks for your thoughts.  China should be a good gauge to look at.  I think their cases started to level off from the large growth around 5 weeks into the outbreak (Feb 7th I think?).  I think from that time it continued to drop and deaths mostly stopped.  I don't know why we shouldn't see a similar scenario.  By mid to late April we should see things level off and by then hopefully sane minds prevail and we get the country going again ASAP.  Sure we can and maybe should quarantine the sick, isolate the most vulnerable, BUT let the rest of the 99% of population this isn't a big deal for get back to work.  Consequences of closing everything for 6-9 months, as Cuomo mentioned, would be far more devastating and likely cause MUCH more sickness and death.  I'd bet anyone the deaths from COVID19 will be MAGNITUDES less than influenza (as seen in China).

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-nobel-laureate-predicts-quicker-210318391.html

    Actually I don't believe China

    Posted by golfmyway5 on 22nd of Mar 2020 at 11:47 pm

    Actually I don't believe China is a good gauge for us they had a military style country wide lock down with a much quicker testing system . we have nothing close too that here and wasted 6-8 weeks without aggressive testing. We are probably  more on a track with Italy or Spain. We'll know the numbers better in the next 7-10 days once testing is actually fully ramped up. Because we acted so slowly with no real forceful quarantine measures this will take make longer then China to get our outbreak under control I hope I'm wrong .

    Actually every politician is talking

    Posted by kevindeng0727 on 23rd of Mar 2020 at 12:04 am

    Actually every politician is talking about 'slowing' the spread. Hopefully the weather will help NY and Washington 2-3  months from now, or any meaningful breakthrough happens in medicience development. 

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