Posted by doctormike on 14th of Jan 2010 at 04:27 pm
I saw the same thing. I really doubt that the volume is all
buying or all selling. I believe that it's in and out with high
speed trading. If that trade does stay in the es system. The future
should either shoot up and shoot down very strongly, and it will
influence s&p cash since people arbitrage between es and
cash.
Posted by doctormike on 12th of Jan 2010 at 08:49 am
Sure, if that's the case, I just like to be confirmed again that
wave C is still coming and it should break the low of March. The
"big picture" picture was talked about for several months, but as
the market moves higher and more bears turn bulls, that "big
picture" view hasn't been mentioned much anymore. Anyway, as an
investor, it will be good to know.
Posted by doctormike on 12th of Jan 2010 at 12:09 am
Check out this EW projection. It makes a point that the march
low was the bottom of wave C in a ABC retracement since 2000. Now
we are in only wave 1 of wave 5 up to break new high. There is no
retesting low and definitely no breaking low. I wonder what
breakpoint's view is now after this most powerful rally in equity
market history.
Posted by doctormike on 11th of Jan 2010 at 11:26 pm
Steve and Matt,
Since March, every week you guys reminded of us the long term
ABC with C wave potentially breaking the March low. Do you two
still hold the same view as back then? Lots of bearish analysts
have given up the discussion of retesting March low. What's your
view now? I guess I am trying to find out whether you have turned
from long term bearish into neutral or bullish. Yes, we know
trading the trend until it fails, but I would like to know if you
and breakpoint still hold a long term view. Thank you.
Posted by doctormike on 23rd of Dec 2009 at 02:08 am
We are making new high boys. From this point on, please don't
use the word "short covering" whenever we rally. The reason is that
not many shorts left after this rally pre market.
Posted by doctormike on 16th of Dec 2009 at 05:31 pm
Well his comment was that 25% can be spotted on. Another 50% you
can somewhat predict the market direction. The rest of 25% is
basically unpredictable. I think for the last month and a half, we
are basically in that 25% area. Anyway, those percentages are just
estimated by the author, and yes, it's impossible to quantify it
that way since it's based on subjective experience than on
data.
Posted by doctormike on 16th of Dec 2009 at 05:08 pm
Check out just the first paragraph. EWI and other sites keep
calling the directions of the market and never address their wrong
calls. Glenn Neely is a true technican who admits that EW isn't
perfect. In fact, it only works 25% of the time. How to lose
subscribers?! Simple. Being subborn about your wrong call and never
apologize.
First and foremost, with NEoWave (and especially with Elliott
Wave) markets are predictable only some of the time. As a general
rule, market action can be predicted "specifically" (i.e., you can
forecast the price, time and complexity of a future move) about 25%
of the time. Market direction can be predicted "generally" using
wave theory (i.e., you can say the trend is up or down) about 50%
of the time and markets are NOT predictable the remaining 25% of
the time.
Posted by doctormike on 15th of Dec 2009 at 08:53 am
eminiaddict.com is the best investment any trader can make, even
if you don't trade futures. It doesn't matter what ETFs or
stocks you trade, s&p futures will influence your equity
position. I've cancelled every subscriptions to other places. Even
with BPT, I read the nightly charts to get a intermediate view and
that's it. I spent most of the time at eminiaddict.com during
trading.
Posted by doctormike on 11th of Dec 2009 at 10:24 am
Dollar made to 77, which we haven't seen for a month and a half
now. The equity market basically stops rallying, not sell off. Very
bullish sign. Dollar trade works on the way up, not on the way down
for now.
Posted by doctormike on 9th of Dec 2009 at 06:22 pm
The bottom line is they have no idea, and they charge an arm and
a leg for their subscriptions. I think most market analysis
sites are nervous as heck because people are cancelling their
subscriptions. This EWI analysis basically is a "cover their
butts" analysis. It can go up...It can go down...uhhh...I
don't know. I will comment "I told ya so" after it
happens.
Posted by doctormike on 5th of Dec 2009 at 08:58 pm
Basically EWI is not sure where the top is. This has to be
their 8th or 9th time calling the top since early August.
In terms of BAC, I really don't think that's the cause.
The big news about employment was the cause.
S&P cash and future has been riding the top of the upward
channel. We have touched that upper trendline three times and
each time we sold off. At this point, I don't think we will
break that line, but we might rally up to reach 1122 in es to make
50% retracement. That should happen on Monday or Tuesday to
fit where the trendline is. Or 1119 in es might be the high
of this rally. Bulls know that there are sellers up there and
Friday's news was extremely good, almost unreal good. I don't
see what kind of news will cause us to break that line.
Posted by doctormike on 2nd of Dec 2009 at 07:56 pm
I don't have GET, but I did spend some time to investigate it.
Here is what I think about GET. If you want system trading, TS
is the best around. However, if you want to be a great
discretionary trader, GET is the way to go. Once you get advanced
GET, you are signed up for an intense 8 hours a week 3 months
trading course. A coach will coach you and others in the class to
use GET to trade. They also have several custom made indicators
that are very cool. One of them is a special stoch that tells
you whether it's trending or not. Also they have automatic EW count
that's dynamic and changes with the market. Their radar screen is
very cool, too. It gives green or red lights for long or short. I
have TS already, but I am seriously thinkin about getting GET. The
problem is that I will have to pay for data subscription fee twice.
Anyway, good luck.
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
Does he have a down
McHugh called the top today
Posted by doctormike on 15th of Jan 2010 at 06:16 pm
Does he have a down side target?
I saw the same thing.
Here is a chart of the volume spike I mentioned.
Posted by doctormike on 14th of Jan 2010 at 04:27 pm
I saw the same thing. I really doubt that the volume is all buying or all selling. I believe that it's in and out with high speed trading. If that trade does stay in the es system. The future should either shoot up and shoot down very strongly, and it will influence s&p cash since people arbitrage between es and cash.
Sure, if that's the case,
Long term picture view
Posted by doctormike on 12th of Jan 2010 at 08:49 am
Sure, if that's the case, I just like to be confirmed again that wave C is still coming and it should break the low of March. The "big picture" picture was talked about for several months, but as the market moves higher and more bears turn bulls, that "big picture" view hasn't been mentioned much anymore. Anyway, as an investor, it will be good to know.
Can you please tell me
Ned Davis' 2010 stock market timing model
Posted by doctormike on 12th of Jan 2010 at 12:36 am
Can you please tell me the scale on the side, what is that measuring in? Thank you.
We will see what Steve
Long term picture view
Posted by doctormike on 12th of Jan 2010 at 12:35 am
We will see what Steve and Matt's view is. Their previous view is quite bearish. I am wondering if this rally has changed their long term view.
Very bullish EW view
Long term picture view
Posted by doctormike on 12th of Jan 2010 at 12:09 am
Check out this EW projection. It makes a point that the march low was the bottom of wave C in a ABC retracement since 2000. Now we are in only wave 1 of wave 5 up to break new high. There is no retesting low and definitely no breaking low. I wonder what breakpoint's view is now after this most powerful rally in equity market history.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_9Sqz0bUVklI/S0eo6SwjfGI/AAAAAAAAAmw/5ysa95Gp-A0/s1600-h/PUG+SP-500+Daily+Bull+Model+1-8-10.JPG
Long term picture view
Posted by doctormike on 11th of Jan 2010 at 11:26 pm
Steve and Matt,
Since March, every week you guys reminded of us the long term ABC with C wave potentially breaking the March low. Do you two still hold the same view as back then? Lots of bearish analysts have given up the discussion of retesting March low. What's your view now? I guess I am trying to find out whether you have turned from long term bearish into neutral or bullish. Yes, we know trading the trend until it fails, but I would like to know if you and breakpoint still hold a long term view. Thank you.
If you want a worry
weekend positions?
Posted by doctormike on 8th of Jan 2010 at 11:29 am
If you want a worry free weekend, flat your positions.
Put two and two together...even the cavemen can figure it out.
Posted by doctormike on 7th of Jan 2010 at 11:28 pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/trimtabs-asks-who-responsible-non-stop-market-rally-march-gives-some-suggestions
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXlxBeAvsB8&feature=related
ES almost made to 1122, 50% retracement.
Posted by doctormike on 23rd of Dec 2009 at 02:08 am
We are making new high boys. From this point on, please don't use the word "short covering" whenever we rally. The reason is that not many shorts left after this rally pre market.
Well his comment was that
This is a honest market analyst, not like Prechter or others who keep calling the market.
Posted by doctormike on 16th of Dec 2009 at 05:31 pm
Well his comment was that 25% can be spotted on. Another 50% you can somewhat predict the market direction. The rest of 25% is basically unpredictable. I think for the last month and a half, we are basically in that 25% area. Anyway, those percentages are just estimated by the author, and yes, it's impossible to quantify it that way since it's based on subjective experience than on data.
This is a honest market analyst, not like Prechter or others who keep calling the market.
Posted by doctormike on 16th of Dec 2009 at 05:08 pm
Check out just the first paragraph. EWI and other sites keep calling the directions of the market and never address their wrong calls. Glenn Neely is a true technican who admits that EW isn't perfect. In fact, it only works 25% of the time. How to lose subscribers?! Simple. Being subborn about your wrong call and never apologize.
http://www.neowave.com/qow.asp
First and foremost, with NEoWave (and especially with Elliott Wave) markets are predictable only some of the time. As a general rule, market action can be predicted "specifically" (i.e., you can forecast the price, time and complexity of a future move) about 25% of the time. Market direction can be predicted "generally" using wave theory (i.e., you can say the trend is up or down) about 50% of the time and markets are NOT predictable the remaining 25% of the time.
The reason is s&p future
SPX Future and Cash discrepancy
Posted by doctormike on 15th of Dec 2009 at 11:41 am
The reason is s&p future just rolls over to the new contract. It went from esz09 to esh10. Basically it rolls every three months.
eminiaddict.com is the best investment
Learning Futures Trading
Posted by doctormike on 15th of Dec 2009 at 08:53 am
eminiaddict.com is the best investment any trader can make, even if you don't trade futures. It doesn't matter what ETFs or stocks you trade, s&p futures will influence your equity position. I've cancelled every subscriptions to other places. Even with BPT, I read the nightly charts to get a intermediate view and that's it. I spent most of the time at eminiaddict.com during trading.
According to CNBC
Futures Spiked!
Posted by doctormike on 13th of Dec 2009 at 11:46 pm
Govt of Abu Dhabi Agrees to Fund $10 Billion for Dubai World Debt: Statement
It was also at 50% retracement for long.
Bullish market
Posted by doctormike on 11th of Dec 2009 at 10:24 am
Dollar made to 77, which we haven't seen for a month and a half now. The equity market basically stops rallying, not sell off. Very bullish sign. Dollar trade works on the way up, not on the way down for now.
The bottom line is they
EWI and The Boy Scout Motto
Posted by doctormike on 9th of Dec 2009 at 06:22 pm
The bottom line is they have no idea, and they charge an arm and a leg for their subscriptions. I think most market analysis sites are nervous as heck because people are cancelling their subscriptions. This EWI analysis basically is a "cover their butts" analysis. It can go up...It can go down...uhhh...I don't know. I will comment "I told ya so" after it happens.
Basically EWI is not sure
XLF, Volume & tonight's rebalancing
Posted by doctormike on 5th of Dec 2009 at 08:58 pm
Basically EWI is not sure where the top is. This has to be their 8th or 9th time calling the top since early August.
In terms of BAC, I really don't think that's the cause. The big news about employment was the cause.
S&P cash and future has been riding the top of the upward channel. We have touched that upper trendline three times and each time we sold off. At this point, I don't think we will break that line, but we might rally up to reach 1122 in es to make 50% retracement. That should happen on Monday or Tuesday to fit where the trendline is. Or 1119 in es might be the high of this rally. Bulls know that there are sellers up there and Friday's news was extremely good, almost unreal good. I don't see what kind of news will cause us to break that line.
Are they still calling the
XLF, Volume & tonight's rebalancing
Posted by doctormike on 4th of Dec 2009 at 09:10 pm
Are they still calling the top? They did last week and it was wrong again.
I don't have GET, but
GET
Posted by doctormike on 2nd of Dec 2009 at 07:56 pm
I don't have GET, but I did spend some time to investigate it. Here is what I think about GET. If you want system trading, TS is the best around. However, if you want to be a great discretionary trader, GET is the way to go. Once you get advanced GET, you are signed up for an intense 8 hours a week 3 months trading course. A coach will coach you and others in the class to use GET to trade. They also have several custom made indicators that are very cool. One of them is a special stoch that tells you whether it's trending or not. Also they have automatic EW count that's dynamic and changes with the market. Their radar screen is very cool, too. It gives green or red lights for long or short. I have TS already, but I am seriously thinkin about getting GET. The problem is that I will have to pay for data subscription fee twice. Anyway, good luck.