Posted by doctormike on 11th of Jan 2010 at 11:26 pm
Steve and Matt,
Since March, every week you guys reminded of us the long term
ABC with C wave potentially breaking the March low. Do you two
still hold the same view as back then? Lots of bearish analysts
have given up the discussion of retesting March low. What's your
view now? I guess I am trying to find out whether you have turned
from long term bearish into neutral or bullish. Yes, we know
trading the trend until it fails, but I would like to know if you
and breakpoint still hold a long term view. Thank you.
Posted by burkmere on 12th of Jan 2010 at 04:14 pm
Yep, the Wave C down "disappeared" and I'd still like to know
what they think...I mean, if we're in for just a 10% correction
here and then up and away...that will be a whole lot different than
down to a retest or new lows....
I really don't get bogged down with the LONGER TERM
prognostications since they are not tradeable. Should the
intermediate trend change, we will adjust accordingly.
While I still favor the ABC scneario (with C to the downside yet
to follow), I will point out that last week OEW (objective Elliot
Wave analysis) confirmed a longer term uptrend just last week.
Historically, about 70% of the time this would point to a new
bull market. The other 30% they simply confirm B wave rallies
in ongoing bear markets. Thus, the probabilities favor the
bulls. However, since this market has SO FAR stayed within
the boundaries of the Primary wave B rally we will stay with that
above count until this market provides further evidence that it's a
bull market.
Again, this is all mute point since the KEY to trading is to
play the intermediate trend versus being concerned with the longer
term which is less productive. Remember, anticipate, monitor,
and if necessary adjust. Should the correction be 5 waves
down then we can assume the bear market continues. If it's an
ABC, then it's most likely only a 4th wave low with a 5th wave
advance to follow. That's the best I can do as of now.
FOCUS on the best setups and don't dwell on what is tough to
predict.
Posted by doctormike on 12th of Jan 2010 at 12:09 am
Check out this EW projection. It makes a point that the march
low was the bottom of wave C in a ABC retracement since 2000. Now
we are in only wave 1 of wave 5 up to break new high. There is no
retesting low and definitely no breaking low. I wonder what
breakpoint's view is now after this most powerful rally in equity
market history.
Posted by mamaduck on 12th of Jan 2010 at 12:24 am
Given the fundamentals of world economy, and specially the US
economy, the only way this would happen is a rise in nominal terms
through massive money printing (much larger than we have seen so
far) by all central banks, which will be super bullish for gold and
commodities...
Posted by doctormike on 12th of Jan 2010 at 08:49 am
Sure, if that's the case, I just like to be confirmed again that
wave C is still coming and it should break the low of March. The
"big picture" picture was talked about for several months, but as
the market moves higher and more bears turn bulls, that "big
picture" view hasn't been mentioned much anymore. Anyway, as an
investor, it will be good to know.
Posted by window72 on 12th of Jan 2010 at 04:40 pm
One of the arguements against the idea that the bear market was
2000 - 2009 is that the lows of valuation in 2009 were not as low
as at previous bear market lows.
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Long term picture view
Posted by doctormike on 11th of Jan 2010 at 11:26 pm
Steve and Matt,
Since March, every week you guys reminded of us the long term ABC with C wave potentially breaking the March low. Do you two still hold the same view as back then? Lots of bearish analysts have given up the discussion of retesting March low. What's your view now? I guess I am trying to find out whether you have turned from long term bearish into neutral or bullish. Yes, we know trading the trend until it fails, but I would like to know if you and breakpoint still hold a long term view. Thank you.
Yep...
Posted by burkmere on 12th of Jan 2010 at 04:14 pm
Yep, the Wave C down "disappeared" and I'd still like to know what they think...I mean, if we're in for just a 10% correction here and then up and away...that will be a whole lot different than down to a retest or new lows....
----------------------------------------- I really don't get bogged
Posted by steve on 12th of Jan 2010 at 04:21 pm
-----------------------------------------
I really don't get bogged down with the LONGER TERM prognostications since they are not tradeable. Should the intermediate trend change, we will adjust accordingly.
While I still favor the ABC scneario (with C to the downside yet to follow), I will point out that last week OEW (objective Elliot Wave analysis) confirmed a longer term uptrend just last week. Historically, about 70% of the time this would point to a new bull market. The other 30% they simply confirm B wave rallies in ongoing bear markets. Thus, the probabilities favor the bulls. However, since this market has SO FAR stayed within the boundaries of the Primary wave B rally we will stay with that above count until this market provides further evidence that it's a bull market.
Again, this is all mute point since the KEY to trading is to play the intermediate trend versus being concerned with the longer term which is less productive. Remember, anticipate, monitor, and if necessary adjust. Should the correction be 5 waves down then we can assume the bear market continues. If it's an ABC, then it's most likely only a 4th wave low with a 5th wave advance to follow. That's the best I can do as of now. FOCUS on the best setups and don't dwell on what is tough to predict.
Steve
Thanks!
Posted by burkmere on 12th of Jan 2010 at 04:25 pm
Thanks, Steve..great explanation and rationale...
Very bullish EW view
Posted by doctormike on 12th of Jan 2010 at 12:09 am
Check out this EW projection. It makes a point that the march low was the bottom of wave C in a ABC retracement since 2000. Now we are in only wave 1 of wave 5 up to break new high. There is no retesting low and definitely no breaking low. I wonder what breakpoint's view is now after this most powerful rally in equity market history.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_9Sqz0bUVklI/S0eo6SwjfGI/AAAAAAAAAmw/5ysa95Gp-A0/s1600-h/PUG+SP-500+Daily+Bull+Model+1-8-10.JPG
If this is the case...
Posted by mamaduck on 12th of Jan 2010 at 12:24 am
Given the fundamentals of world economy, and specially the US economy, the only way this would happen is a rise in nominal terms through massive money printing (much larger than we have seen so far) by all central banks, which will be super bullish for gold and commodities...
We will see what Steve
Posted by doctormike on 12th of Jan 2010 at 12:35 am
We will see what Steve and Matt's view is. Their previous view is quite bearish. I am wondering if this rally has changed their long term view.
matt said just yesterday that
Posted by Michael on 12th of Jan 2010 at 07:25 am
matt said just yesterday that they do not think we're in a bull market.
Sure, if that's the case,
Posted by doctormike on 12th of Jan 2010 at 08:49 am
Sure, if that's the case, I just like to be confirmed again that wave C is still coming and it should break the low of March. The "big picture" picture was talked about for several months, but as the market moves higher and more bears turn bulls, that "big picture" view hasn't been mentioned much anymore. Anyway, as an investor, it will be good to know.
Great post doctormike. I too
Posted by DK on 11th of Jan 2010 at 11:55 pm
Great post doctormike. I too would like to hear the answer to your question.
One of the arguements against
Posted by window72 on 12th of Jan 2010 at 04:40 pm
One of the arguements against the idea that the bear market was 2000 - 2009 is that the lows of valuation in 2009 were not as low as at previous bear market lows.