Posted by doctormike on 30th of Oct 2009 at 09:04 am
jcomptonod... Yes, it will be nice to hear the preferred count,
as long as all other counts are also discussed. The thing
that most of us missed was chart no. 17 on Wednesday's
analysis. Daily McClellan was extremely oversold and it was
at the lowest level since the March rally started. Matt spent
majority of the time on Wednesday's analysis to discuss the bearish
case and spent less than 5 seconds on that one chart. Of
course, that's what ended up happening on Thursday. With an
extremely oversold condition and a positive GDP number, boom....we
got a "rally", not a "bounce". Sure, hindsight is always
20/20, but like you said, that's why we subscribe to sites like
this so you don't have to "throw a dart".
Posted by doctormike on 30th of Oct 2009 at 08:01 am
Steve, your newsletter last night was excellent. It's this
kind of analysis that makes an analyst great. Chart 7 should
be done in a nightly basis. It presents all the possibilities
instead of being overly bullish or bearish. In fact, if it
was done on Wednesday, you probably wouldn't have gotten so many
emails. On Wednesday's bearish newsletter, only a wave 4
bounce was discussed and shorts after the bounce was
recommended. Of course when we rallied so strongly yesterday,
it caught most people off guard. Please continue to present
similar charts with all the possibilities like Chart 7 in a nightly
basis. As the market changes during the day, the members can
adapt according to various possibilities. I am certain that
all members appreciate that.
Posted by doctormike on 29th of Oct 2009 at 02:53 pm
It wasn't clear. Yesterday was one of the most bearish
days in a long time. There were so many -1,200 ticks and
breadth was negative 9 to 1. To expect the next day to have a
day like this is totally unexpected. I think all the market
forecast or analysis sites should just show charts only, and that's
it, no commentaries.
Posted by doctormike on 29th of Oct 2009 at 01:56 pm
This is not window dressing. The general market hasn't performed
that great in the month of October. This rally like every other
light volume rally starts out by short squeeze. Lots of
people are short after almost 2 weeks of sell off.
Posted by doctormike on 29th of Oct 2009 at 12:46 pm
This reminds me of October 2 when everyone and his mother who
knows Elliott Wave was waiting for wave 5 down. But the rally
that was supposed to be a ABC wave 4 correction turned out to be a
multiple implusive wave up with multiple extensions.
I was just surfing the web a bit and found this article from
2002. At that time, lots of people were talking about double dip
recession and dow going down to some insane level. Bill Gross - the
bond king and David Tice - the bear fund guy all said the same
thing. We all know what happened in 2003 to 2007. With all the
government intervention, the economy and the market got reflated
again. With Bill Gross calling for "the new normal" and Tice again
calling for Dow 3000 in the next 18 months... Quote another bear
Prechter.. "HmmMMmmMMMmmm..."
Posted by doctormike on 16th of Oct 2009 at 04:11 pm
My experience with TS is that they are very conservative in their
compliance. I have the same problem as well. Once I sold
something carried overnight, I will have to call my rep to have him
to reset my buying power and it's never the same amount. It's quite
annoying. By the time they reset it, the trade timing might be
gone.
Posted by doctormike on 15th of Oct 2009 at 11:24 pm
Lots of regional banks are reporting next week. With heavy
exposure to commercial real estate loans, their earnings might miss
the estimates. If it happens, bkx will pull the whole market
down.
I can totally see Daneric's point. The only trouble is
Prechter's marketing efforts. The true story is that Prechter came
out with a "special report" on August 5 with a
great urgencyto note his subscribers that the bear market rally had
reached his minimum target. He mentioned that he's usually early
and he recommended a half short by using leveraged short ETFs
for
aggressive investors. The marketing of EWI was blasting stuff over his
website like articles titled "Prechter stands alone once
again", and on EWI's message board, an answer to FAQs
about why Prechter rushed to come out with that notice
was "Bob thinks something bad might happen to the
market in the next couple of weeks." Hmmm...ok. He then went on
Bloomberg to show all his corrective market callings during this
bear market and now he was calling it again. Marketing, marketing,
marketing...
On August 28, he came out with another "interim special
report" to call the top and recommend a fully short position.
Again, the marketing of EWI ate that up, advertising all over his
website with various tactics on written articles or FAQs.
On September 23, Steve from EWI called the top once more with a
great certainty. They placed the label on their chart and claimed
that the entire bear market rally was over.
During those 3 top callings, they never came out with "urgent
special reports" to warn their subscribers that their analysis was
wrong. The most troubling part was the last few issues of short
term updates done by Steve in EWI. He was so stubborn that 9/23's
top was it; he would manipulate the wave counts to fit his
analysis. That really lost lots of creditability for them.
It's ok to be wrong, but the subscribers deserve a "quick,
emergency kind" of notice when the analysis is wrong just as much
as when a marketing oriented forecaster calls the tops. It's
definitely NOT ok for an analyst to be stubborn and try to alter an
objective wave count to fit his previous top calling
recommendation. I think Steve has heard from his subscribers
enough. His latest short term update from yesterday was more
sobering. He did call another top without explicit excitement. We
will see....
The level of marketing and "rah rah rah" excitement from EWI was
never seen with another EW expert, Glenn Neely. In fact, Neely
claimed to be wrong and explained to his subscribers why in certain
time periods, predictions based on EW are more difficult than other
time periods. His analysis is much more objective. I am sure
Prechter thinks about his own retirement and makes a lot more money
than Neely due to Prechter's marketing efforts, but the bottom line
is that subscribers do not deserve the attitude of "yesterday you
were a prospect; today you are a client".
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I put all the analysis
SPX 10 Channel
Posted by doctormike on 30th of Oct 2009 at 11:35 am
I put all the analysis from Steve on TS. Great looking.
http://www.screencast.com/users/Jumbo123/folders/Jing/media/4fae1ac0-626e-48ac-bc8f-cd1efb20763e
After looking at the daily
Amazing newsletter last night, Steve
Posted by doctormike on 30th of Oct 2009 at 09:15 am
After looking at the daily McClellan, I found an interesting observation.
10/28/09 McClellan -336.21
02/23/09 McClellan -359.34
11/20/08 McClellan -312.62
What happened on 02/24/09 and 11/21/08?
02/24/09 S&P rallied 3.82%
11/21/08 S&P rallied 5.84%
What happened on 10/29/09?
10/29/09 S&P rallied 1.9% - the biggest "rally" percentage wise since early July.
jcomptonod... Yes, it will be
Amazing newsletter last night, Steve
Posted by doctormike on 30th of Oct 2009 at 09:04 am
jcomptonod... Yes, it will be nice to hear the preferred count, as long as all other counts are also discussed. The thing that most of us missed was chart no. 17 on Wednesday's analysis. Daily McClellan was extremely oversold and it was at the lowest level since the March rally started. Matt spent majority of the time on Wednesday's analysis to discuss the bearish case and spent less than 5 seconds on that one chart. Of course, that's what ended up happening on Thursday. With an extremely oversold condition and a positive GDP number, boom....we got a "rally", not a "bounce". Sure, hindsight is always 20/20, but like you said, that's why we subscribe to sites like this so you don't have to "throw a dart".
Amazing newsletter last night, Steve
Posted by doctormike on 30th of Oct 2009 at 08:01 am
Steve, your newsletter last night was excellent. It's this kind of analysis that makes an analyst great. Chart 7 should be done in a nightly basis. It presents all the possibilities instead of being overly bullish or bearish. In fact, if it was done on Wednesday, you probably wouldn't have gotten so many emails. On Wednesday's bearish newsletter, only a wave 4 bounce was discussed and shorts after the bounce was recommended. Of course when we rallied so strongly yesterday, it caught most people off guard. Please continue to present similar charts with all the possibilities like Chart 7 in a nightly basis. As the market changes during the day, the members can adapt according to various possibilities. I am certain that all members appreciate that.
Cramer gets defensive and even a bit bearish.
Posted by doctormike on 29th of Oct 2009 at 09:31 pm
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33536423
He is not a total tool after all.
It wasn't clear. Yesterday was
Largest percentage gain for Dow and S&P since July
Posted by doctormike on 29th of Oct 2009 at 02:53 pm
It wasn't clear. Yesterday was one of the most bearish days in a long time. There were so many -1,200 ticks and breadth was negative 9 to 1. To expect the next day to have a day like this is totally unexpected. I think all the market forecast or analysis sites should just show charts only, and that's it, no commentaries.
Largest percentage gain for Dow and S&P since July
Posted by doctormike on 29th of Oct 2009 at 02:44 pm
So much for top calling and wave 4 "bounce"... This is one crazy market. It will stop being crazy when people stop calling it and predicting it.
This is not window dressing.
Window Dressing?
Posted by doctormike on 29th of Oct 2009 at 01:56 pm
This is not window dressing. The general market hasn't performed that great in the month of October. This rally like every other light volume rally starts out by short squeeze. Lots of people are short after almost 2 weeks of sell off.
This reminds me of October
$SPX almost to .382 correction at 1061.10 on that 5 ...
Posted by doctormike on 29th of Oct 2009 at 12:46 pm
This reminds me of October 2 when everyone and his mother who knows Elliott Wave was waiting for wave 5 down. But the rally that was supposed to be a ABC wave 4 correction turned out to be a multiple implusive wave up with multiple extensions.
Yea...last night Matt mentioned multiple
$SPX almost to .382 correction at 1061.10 on that 5 ...
Posted by doctormike on 29th of Oct 2009 at 12:29 pm
Yea...last night Matt mentioned multiple times about shorting the bounce if you haven't short this market already. So we should short now?
http://www.screencast.com/users/Jumbo123/folders/Jing/media/a1addcdf-9aac-41a4-94cc-79f8ae1e076f
hope for bulls
Posted by doctormike on 28th of Oct 2009 at 02:56 pm
http://www.screencast.com/users/Jumbo123/folders/Jing/media/a1addcdf-9aac-41a4-94cc-79f8ae1e076f
When everyone says it's a
Seems like the top is in but no one is ...
Posted by doctormike on 28th of Oct 2009 at 02:28 pm
When everyone says it's a top, it's not a top. If you are a bear, you would rather have the quietness on your side.
Daily view of S&P
Posted by doctormike on 27th of Oct 2009 at 12:27 pm
http://www.screencast.com/users/Jumbo123/folders/Jing/media/2ea2c9ea-bd44-48cb-8984-9e00a2db8abe
Same bears making the same bearish calls
Posted by doctormike on 22nd of Oct 2009 at 09:57 pm
I was just surfing the web a bit and found this article from 2002. At that time, lots of people were talking about double dip recession and dow going down to some insane level. Bill Gross - the bond king and David Tice - the bear fund guy all said the same thing. We all know what happened in 2003 to 2007. With all the government intervention, the economy and the market got reflated again. With Bill Gross calling for "the new normal" and Tice again calling for Dow 3000 in the next 18 months... Quote another bear Prechter.. "HmmMMmmMMMmmm..."
Since their speciality is system
Tradestation BuyingPower Question
Posted by doctormike on 16th of Oct 2009 at 04:39 pm
Since their speciality is system trading, they might design their margin this way on purpose so you will have to reduce your position size.
My experience with TS is
Tradestation BuyingPower Question
Posted by doctormike on 16th of Oct 2009 at 04:11 pm
My experience with TS is that they are very conservative in their compliance. I have the same problem as well. Once I sold something carried overnight, I will have to call my rep to have him to reset my buying power and it's never the same amount. It's quite annoying. By the time they reset it, the trade timing might be gone.
Another thought... Look at the
ERX (energy)...
Posted by doctormike on 15th of Oct 2009 at 11:38 pm
Another thought... Look at the volume. It seems to favor the downside.
It kinda has to be.
This fan chart is interesting, each time that an uptrend ...
Posted by doctormike on 15th of Oct 2009 at 11:34 pm
It kinda has to be. If we have a fourth one, it won't make a new high according to this chart. In fact, it will only set up a head and shoulder.
Lots of regional banks are
SPX 60 min
Posted by doctormike on 15th of Oct 2009 at 11:24 pm
Lots of regional banks are reporting next week. With heavy exposure to commercial real estate loans, their earnings might miss the estimates. If it happens, bkx will pull the whole market down.
Title: comments I can totally see
Posted by doctormike on 15th of Oct 2009 at 06:16 am
I can totally see Daneric's point. The only trouble is Prechter's marketing efforts. The true story is that Prechter came out with a "special report" on August 5 with a great urgency to note his subscribers that the bear market rally had reached his minimum target. He mentioned that he's usually early and he recommended a half short by using leveraged short ETFs for aggressive investors . The marketing of EWI was blasting stuff over his website like articles titled "Prechter stands alone once again", and on EWI's message board, an answer to FAQs about why Prechter rushed to come out with that notice was "Bob thinks something bad might happen to the market in the next couple of weeks." Hmmm...ok. He then went on Bloomberg to show all his corrective market callings during this bear market and now he was calling it again. Marketing, marketing, marketing...
On August 28, he came out with another "interim special report" to call the top and recommend a fully short position. Again, the marketing of EWI ate that up, advertising all over his website with various tactics on written articles or FAQs.
On September 23, Steve from EWI called the top once more with a great certainty. They placed the label on their chart and claimed that the entire bear market rally was over.
During those 3 top callings, they never came out with "urgent special reports" to warn their subscribers that their analysis was wrong. The most troubling part was the last few issues of short term updates done by Steve in EWI. He was so stubborn that 9/23's top was it; he would manipulate the wave counts to fit his analysis. That really lost lots of creditability for them.
S&P closed on 8/5 - 1003, 8/28 - 1039, 9/23 - 1061.
It's ok to be wrong, but the subscribers deserve a "quick, emergency kind" of notice when the analysis is wrong just as much as when a marketing oriented forecaster calls the tops. It's definitely NOT ok for an analyst to be stubborn and try to alter an objective wave count to fit his previous top calling recommendation. I think Steve has heard from his subscribers enough. His latest short term update from yesterday was more sobering. He did call another top without explicit excitement. We will see....
The level of marketing and "rah rah rah" excitement from EWI was never seen with another EW expert, Glenn Neely. In fact, Neely claimed to be wrong and explained to his subscribers why in certain time periods, predictions based on EW are more difficult than other time periods. His analysis is much more objective. I am sure Prechter thinks about his own retirement and makes a lot more money than Neely due to Prechter's marketing efforts, but the bottom line is that subscribers do not deserve the attitude of "yesterday you were a prospect; today you are a client".