Posted by doctormike on 16th of Dec 2009 at 05:31 pm
Well his comment was that 25% can be spotted on. Another 50% you
can somewhat predict the market direction. The rest of 25% is
basically unpredictable. I think for the last month and a half, we
are basically in that 25% area. Anyway, those percentages are just
estimated by the author, and yes, it's impossible to quantify it
that way since it's based on subjective experience than on
data.
Well his comment was that
This is a honest market analyst, not like Prechter or others who keep calling the market.
Posted by doctormike on 16th of Dec 2009 at 05:31 pm
Well his comment was that 25% can be spotted on. Another 50% you can somewhat predict the market direction. The rest of 25% is basically unpredictable. I think for the last month and a half, we are basically in that 25% area. Anyway, those percentages are just estimated by the author, and yes, it's impossible to quantify it that way since it's based on subjective experience than on data.
EW
Posted by sethbru on 16th of Dec 2009 at 06:02 pm
"Market direction can be predicted generally using wave theory about 50% of the time".
The same is true when using the "coin toss" method, or anything else which has a binary outcome possibility - 50%.