So, EWI is prepared for UP or
DOWN….you be the judge.
Dec 9, 2009
Ready for UP:
So far, the DJIA has conformed
well to the expanding triangle pattern
we’ve previously
discussed. Wave e of the structure either bottomed at today’s
10,235.60 low, or it will do so with one more decline beneath
today’s low, preferably coming under the wave c low at 10,231.30
(Nov. 27). But this latter move is not required, so it is also
possible that wave e, and hence wave B ended at today’s low.This
implies that wave C of (Z) up is now underway, which should carry
the index modestly above the previous high at 10,516.70 on December
4. The upper trendline of the expanding triangle currently crosses
10,528-10,542 through next Wednesday. Prices do not have to stop at
this trendline, if reached, but it may offer resistance. We’ll
see.
Ready for DOWN:
A decline beneath
9900 should be deep enough to eliminate any remaining bullish
potential, indicating that a top has already been recorded. A close
under the November 2 lows—9679 in the DJIA and 1029.38 in the
S&P—would confirm that Primary wave 2
was complete and wave
3 down was unfolding. So this is what we are watching as year end
approaches. As we noted in this month’s EWFF, there may be
heightened volatility throughout most of this month, which is
something that we should be prepared to handle. If future pattern
development eliminates the expanding triangle, we will of course
discuss it immediately.
Posted by doctormike on 9th of Dec 2009 at 06:22 pm
The bottom line is they have no idea, and they charge an arm and
a leg for their subscriptions. I think most market analysis
sites are nervous as heck because people are cancelling their
subscriptions. This EWI analysis basically is a "cover their
butts" analysis. It can go up...It can go down...uhhh...I
don't know. I will comment "I told ya so" after it
happens.
yeah well I'll post my analysis tonight along with some new
trade ideas (that's whats working, not trading the indexes), too
many people here are not playing setups and are only trying to play
the market. Don't get too caught up in all that stuff.
Keep it simple, buy support, sell resistance, play the trend, be
disciplined, don't get complacent and over confident, etc.
People make trading harder than it is.
- (Find out what type of
trade your are and stick with it) There are many
ways to trade the market, but there are no bonus points for trading
a certain way.
Traders need to take inventory of who they are and what
they are and then find a trading methodology that jives with their
personality. Then don't stray - stick with it. It's better
to
specializein one
type of trade and execute that trade over and over than be a
jack of all
trades(no pun intended).
- (Take this to heart) One or two good trades each week is all
it takes to make a living trading. Don't make it harder than
it is. Have a plan and execute it. Also, judge yourself
based on what you make, not what you could have made
-
As far as trade
setups, I don't know which set ups are going to be "good
ones" and which are going to fizzle out. Anyone who says
differently will probably try and sell you real estate by the Bay.
Because of this, trading is somewhat of a numbers game. Get in very
good set ups when the trading environment is conducive, play good
defense and then let the law of large numbers work out.
- The best traders react to the market instead of making grand
predictions.
-
(Very
True)Screen time does not always result in more profits.
I've spent hours analyzing every angle of one particular stock and
then had the trade go against me; I've also spent 10 seconds
deciding to enter a stock that visually had a great pattern and an
easily identifiable entry level and made a lot of money. This isn't
an excuse to be lazy, but it does tell me over-analyzing isn't
wise. On a related note, if you spend two hours dissecting a chart
and deciding to play it, it's much harder to cut it loose when it
goes against you because so much time is invested, but if little
time is invested, it's fairly easy to dump it and move on.
-
(I like this one)The market doesn't care what you
are or who you are. If a Harvard educated economist can explain why
one of his positions went against him, he still doesn't get his
money back.
- In many cases, being smart hinders progress because the
smart guy tries to figure everything out; he constantly asks why.
I've seen way too many smart people fail miserably at trading
because they try to put everything in a nice, neat box. Don't fall
into the trap.
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EWI and The Boy Scout Motto
Posted by bboylan on 9th of Dec 2009 at 05:26 pm
EWI follows the BOY Scout Motto….”Be Prepared”
So, EWI is prepared for UP or DOWN….you be the judge.
Dec 9, 2009
Ready for UP:
So far, the DJIA has conformed well to the expanding triangle pattern we’ve previously discussed. Wave e of the structure either bottomed at today’s 10,235.60 low, or it will do so with one more decline beneath today’s low, preferably coming under the wave c low at 10,231.30 (Nov. 27). But this latter move is not required, so it is also possible that wave e, and hence wave B ended at today’s low.This implies that wave C of (Z) up is now underway, which should carry the index modestly above the previous high at 10,516.70 on December 4. The upper trendline of the expanding triangle currently crosses 10,528-10,542 through next Wednesday. Prices do not have to stop at this trendline, if reached, but it may offer resistance. We’ll see.
Ready for DOWN:
A decline beneath 9900 should be deep enough to eliminate any remaining bullish potential, indicating that a top has already been recorded. A close under the November 2 lows—9679 in the DJIA and 1029.38 in the S&P—would confirm that Primary wave 2 was complete and wave 3 down was unfolding. So this is what we are watching as year end approaches. As we noted in this month’s EWFF, there may be heightened volatility throughout most of this month, which is something that we should be prepared to handle. If future pattern development eliminates the expanding triangle, we will of course discuss it immediately.
BB
The bottom line is they
Posted by doctormike on 9th of Dec 2009 at 06:22 pm
The bottom line is they have no idea, and they charge an arm and a leg for their subscriptions. I think most market analysis sites are nervous as heck because people are cancelling their subscriptions. This EWI analysis basically is a "cover their butts" analysis. It can go up...It can go down...uhhh...I don't know. I will comment "I told ya so" after it happens.
yeah well I'll post my
Posted by matt on 9th of Dec 2009 at 07:42 pm
yeah well I'll post my analysis tonight along with some new trade ideas (that's whats working, not trading the indexes), too many people here are not playing setups and are only trying to play the market. Don't get too caught up in all that stuff. Keep it simple, buy support, sell resistance, play the trend, be disciplined, don't get complacent and over confident, etc. People make trading harder than it is.
- (Find out what type of trade
Posted by matt on 9th of Dec 2009 at 07:45 pm
- (Find out what type of trade your are and stick with it) There are many ways to trade the market, but there are no bonus points for trading a certain way. Traders need to take inventory of who they are and what they are and then find a trading methodology that jives with their personality. Then don't stray - stick with it. It's better to specializein one type of trade and execute that trade over and over than be a jack of all trades(no pun intended).
- (Take this to heart) One or two good trades each week is all it takes to make a living trading. Don't make it harder than it is. Have a plan and execute it. Also, judge yourself based on what you make, not what you could have made
- As far as trade setups, I don't know which set ups are going to be "good ones" and which are going to fizzle out. Anyone who says differently will probably try and sell you real estate by the Bay. Because of this, trading is somewhat of a numbers game. Get in very good set ups when the trading environment is conducive, play good defense and then let the law of large numbers work out.
- The best traders react to the market instead of making grand predictions.
- (Very True)Screen time does not always result in more profits. I've spent hours analyzing every angle of one particular stock and then had the trade go against me; I've also spent 10 seconds deciding to enter a stock that visually had a great pattern and an easily identifiable entry level and made a lot of money. This isn't an excuse to be lazy, but it does tell me over-analyzing isn't wise. On a related note, if you spend two hours dissecting a chart and deciding to play it, it's much harder to cut it loose when it goes against you because so much time is invested, but if little time is invested, it's fairly easy to dump it and move on.
- (I like this one)The market doesn't care what you are or who you are. If a Harvard educated economist can explain why one of his positions went against him, he still doesn't get his money back.
- In many cases, being smart hinders progress because the smart guy tries to figure everything out; he constantly asks why. I've seen way too many smart people fail miserably at trading because they try to put everything in a nice, neat box. Don't fall into the trap.