Posted by doctormike on 16th of Dec 2009 at 05:08 pm
Check out just the first paragraph. EWI and other sites keep
calling the directions of the market and never address their wrong
calls. Glenn Neely is a true technican who admits that EW isn't
perfect. In fact, it only works 25% of the time. How to lose
subscribers?! Simple. Being subborn about your wrong call and never
apologize.
First and foremost, with NEoWave (and especially with Elliott
Wave) markets are predictable only some of the time. As a general
rule, market action can be predicted "specifically" (i.e., you can
forecast the price, time and complexity of a future move) about 25%
of the time. Market direction can be predicted "generally" using
wave theory (i.e., you can say the trend is up or down) about 50%
of the time and markets are NOT predictable the remaining 25% of
the time.
Yes EWI called tops way too early etc and are now trying to
cover themselves.
The percentage that 25% number that Neowave gave is a useless
bogus statistic, they pulled it out of their ass.
In order to quantify something, you need
hard set rules,
like the mechanical systems, that can be back tested.
You can't backtest
EW, so to me that is a bogus made up number, worthless.
Why, because you can't quantify EW period, you can't give it a
number. If you asked me to guess what percentage of the time
EW is correct, I would tell you I have no idea, it can't be
measured. Some wave counts are subjective anyway, EW is
something you cannot quantify or back test accurately; some EW
analysists might be 80% accurate, while others maybe 20%
accurate.
where EW works well, at least for me, is not big picture stuff,
it's intra day, if I see 5 waves with divergence on a 5 min chart,
30 min chart, 60 min chart, it helps me. Now where it get's
muddled is when you start talking about supercycles and grand
supercycles etc that last 60 years and 200 years, etc, to me you
can't trade that crap. But otherwise EW is useful to me for
shorter time frames, especially when combined with some indicators
like the MACD; 5th waves always have divergence etc.
again I know you have it out for EWI, but don't get too wrapped
up in all that stuff.
Posted by doctormike on 16th of Dec 2009 at 05:31 pm
Well his comment was that 25% can be spotted on. Another 50% you
can somewhat predict the market direction. The rest of 25% is
basically unpredictable. I think for the last month and a half, we
are basically in that 25% area. Anyway, those percentages are just
estimated by the author, and yes, it's impossible to quantify it
that way since it's based on subjective experience than on
data.
This is a honest market analyst, not like Prechter or others who keep calling the market.
Posted by doctormike on 16th of Dec 2009 at 05:08 pm
Check out just the first paragraph. EWI and other sites keep calling the directions of the market and never address their wrong calls. Glenn Neely is a true technican who admits that EW isn't perfect. In fact, it only works 25% of the time. How to lose subscribers?! Simple. Being subborn about your wrong call and never apologize.
http://www.neowave.com/qow.asp
First and foremost, with NEoWave (and especially with Elliott Wave) markets are predictable only some of the time. As a general rule, market action can be predicted "specifically" (i.e., you can forecast the price, time and complexity of a future move) about 25% of the time. Market direction can be predicted "generally" using wave theory (i.e., you can say the trend is up or down) about 50% of the time and markets are NOT predictable the remaining 25% of the time.
Yes EWI called tops way
Posted by matt on 16th of Dec 2009 at 05:25 pm
Yes EWI called tops way too early etc and are now trying to cover themselves.
The percentage that 25% number that Neowave gave is a useless bogus statistic, they pulled it out of their ass.
In order to quantify something, you need hard set rules, like the mechanical systems, that can be back tested. You can't backtest EW, so to me that is a bogus made up number, worthless.
Why, because you can't quantify EW period, you can't give it a number. If you asked me to guess what percentage of the time EW is correct, I would tell you I have no idea, it can't be measured. Some wave counts are subjective anyway, EW is something you cannot quantify or back test accurately; some EW analysists might be 80% accurate, while others maybe 20% accurate.
where EW works well, at least for me, is not big picture stuff, it's intra day, if I see 5 waves with divergence on a 5 min chart, 30 min chart, 60 min chart, it helps me. Now where it get's muddled is when you start talking about supercycles and grand supercycles etc that last 60 years and 200 years, etc, to me you can't trade that crap. But otherwise EW is useful to me for shorter time frames, especially when combined with some indicators like the MACD; 5th waves always have divergence etc.
again I know you have it out for EWI, but don't get too wrapped up in all that stuff.
Well his comment was that
Posted by doctormike on 16th of Dec 2009 at 05:31 pm
Well his comment was that 25% can be spotted on. Another 50% you can somewhat predict the market direction. The rest of 25% is basically unpredictable. I think for the last month and a half, we are basically in that 25% area. Anyway, those percentages are just estimated by the author, and yes, it's impossible to quantify it that way since it's based on subjective experience than on data.
EW
Posted by sethbru on 16th of Dec 2009 at 06:02 pm
"Market direction can be predicted generally using wave theory about 50% of the time".
The same is true when using the "coin toss" method, or anything else which has a binary outcome possibility - 50%.