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VIX - Wake up! Missing

Posted by DigiNomad on 14th of Sep 2022 at 03:29 pm

VIX - Wake up! Missing the party....

SPX - look out below

Posted by DigiNomad on 14th of Sep 2022 at 03:15 pm

SPX - look out below

It worries me that it's

OXY.  small coil on 5 & 15 min

Posted by DigiNomad on 14th of Sep 2022 at 02:55 pm

It worries me that it's such a crowded trade. Also, seeing some MACD divergence on 30 & 15 min time-frames. But yeah, OXY and the rest of the sector are VERY tempting. 

No problem. I'm out OXY

OXY.  small coil on 5 & 15 min

Posted by DigiNomad on 14th of Sep 2022 at 02:48 pm

No problem. I'm out OXY already after Demark 9 on 3 min time-frame. Rare single stock day trade. It looks like it just completed an ABC on 3 min and setting up short again...but not as low risk as that initial trade was.

For the medium term, I don't short names when I can make a solid fundamental / valuation case...which applies to most energy sector names.

At this point, I'm wondering how far price can drop for a cup and handle to still be valid (OXY & XLE)

So far, so good...

OXY.  small coil on 5 & 15 min

Posted by DigiNomad on 14th of Sep 2022 at 01:59 pm

So far, so good...

OXY -  anyone else seeing a potential trap setting up with an ABC / double top move finishing up here?  Kind of seeing the same thing in a lot of energy names...but wave theory is not my strength. Seems like the higher probability trades in this sector right now would be shorting with a stop just above the prior high (violating it would at least take out the double top theory).

That said, the energy sector as a whole has the lowest valuation of any sector and the best future earnings profile. If we weren't living in an ESG tainted world, it would rightly be on fire. 

FA's peddle the can't time the market mantra because actually timing it is a LOT of work!

There's probably some rule that I'm not allowed to say this as a CFP, but the efficient market hypothesis is part science but a bigger part marketing. It serves the work life balance of FA's very well. 

Joe Terranova looking slick in

Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of Sep 2022 at 04:19 pm

Joe Terranova looking slick in that suit but he wasn't that slick being a super bull at the recent top trying to convince everyone that non discretionary funds would kick in a take the market much higher once the 200 was broken. He was so sure...

SPX. Closed below that trend

Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of Sep 2022 at 04:01 pm

SPX. Closed below that trend line. Oops. Will have to recover that tomorrow or it could flush. (red dashed lines are level I'm short...calls on top, puts on the bottom)

I was heavily short the 421 level going into the print this morning. Sweating bullets until the announcement. 

SPX Demark signals - nothing

Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of Sep 2022 at 03:44 pm

SPX Demark signals - nothing doing until you get all the way down to the 10 min timeframe...and that one got blown up. Tells me we're not done yet.

I've spent the whole day chasing down shorts to offset my long deltas. Never enough. 

Steve - we're almost halfway

Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of Sep 2022 at 03:41 pm

Steve - we're almost halfway to your observation that a 1000 point move was possible if the market pushed up to a high....way back on 16 August.  A month later, and it doesn't seem so crazy   

Thanks for the feedback. Tracking now. 

XLE - no one got my dumb pun. I'll live ;) But does anyone have any idea where that spike came from? 

XLE - whoa, someone just

Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of Sep 2022 at 01:30 pm

XLE - whoa, someone just flipped a switch? 

rfa300 - Yes, using UNINTENTIONALLY was intentional, on my part. I have plenty of clients that persistently forward me links to various people talking about "the Great Reset," etc, etc. Or Robert Kiyosaki links. Most of the links are from people that profit from the sale of gold and silver, in one way or another. I choose not to go down those rabbit holes and didn't want to trigger anyone to think i'm on board with the theories surrounding conspiracies to bring down the country. I have nothing against people who choose to believe in these theories. I'm just not personally in that camp. 

Wedges & Flags - I have some code / scripts that identify them, but they suck for now. Will probably be hard to beat the computer approach once they get better!  

Anyway, your systems have been rocking, Matt. Thanks!

Agree. Pattern recognition is all based on history. But it's a different kind of pattern recognition. I'm sure you have seen the Ciavacco video on YouTube, right? He attempts to overlay time periods from previous historical events and includes mentions of things like recessions, inflation, etc. Instead of just looking at the short term levels and patterns that are presenting themselves. 

Ciovacco Capital - this is

Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of Sep 2022 at 11:54 am

Ciovacco Capital - this is why I stopped watching stuff that relies on historical analogy to predict movements instead of just trading level to level. For one, there is no historical analogy to this period. There just isn't. Fed, Congress and the Executive branch all worked together and, unintentionally, created an almost unsolvable maze of economic conditions. The only way out is to, eventually, fall on our sword. But we're going to fight tooth and nail to avoid that eventuality. 

Inflation Reduction Act 2.0? Why

Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of Sep 2022 at 11:14 am

Inflation Reduction Act 2.0?

Why am I stuck with an uneasy feeling that Biden is looking at outcomes today on inflation and markets and scheming where to drop the next trillion dollar bomb on the economy? 


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