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Thanks!

Also, did the ATR get hit on the half day cycle chart? That would put everything into a sell configuration. I'm doing the should or stay or should I go dance into the close with my index positions. The fact that I'm feeling like giving up on the meager short term targets I was hoping to achieve with the latest trades probably means we're about to get a rally. But wow, the news internationally just keeps getting worse. The backdrop is objectively HORRIBLE. 

SPX - Matt, I'm wondering

Posted by DigiNomad on 14th of Jul 2022 at 03:19 pm

SPX - Matt, I'm wondering how your SPX 120 min cycles chart looks heading into the close today? Yesterday it had a buy cycle with a demark 13. Is that still valid after today's action? 

INMD - FWIW, I put

arun's INMD

Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of Jul 2022 at 10:57 am

INMD - FWIW, I put on a small risk reversal / calendar trade (long call farther out than short put). But not very liquid except the front month near the money. 

TSLA - surprising strength given its ridiculous valuation and the fact that Elon might be forced to liquidate to the point where he's no longer in control (I think it's somewhat likely). My medium term target is still $520, but I think it will go lower after that test. 

System on Matt's Systems?  I'm thinking to build a VAR based model that allows for an allocation to these models. Anyone already have one? It would be a bit complex and would probably have to backtest the number of signals generated by the various systems over the years. For example, if you allocated 30% of a portfolio to system trades, including option trades, how would you maintain that average on a VAR basis over time? Maybe 7 or 8% of 30% per system in order to allow  for times when multiple trades are in play? Just off the top of my head...

DBC - hell of a

Posted by DigiNomad on 8th of Jul 2022 at 11:43 am

DBC - hell of a candle forming on the weekly

SPX - Inverse head and

Posted by DigiNomad on 8th of Jul 2022 at 11:09 am

SPX - Inverse head and shoulders forming on 1 min?

  

SPX 15 with Fibs

Posted by DigiNomad on 6th of Jul 2022 at 04:26 pm

  

5 waves to ABC -

Posted by DigiNomad on 6th of Jul 2022 at 03:19 pm

5 waves to ABC - Steve, ever since you pointed this out in the newsletter, it seems like I'm seeing it in a LOT of my charts (latest was JEPI 15 min where it's clear as a bell). 

Out with a small profit - decent only because I went in big. Reduced my target to 20 EMA because this bounce has been so weak. Happy to be out with a win. 

SPY - When the market

Posted by DigiNomad on 5th of Jul 2022 at 04:14 pm

SPY - When the market opened today I was super confident the big trade I put on Friday was going to recover and go my way by the close   

DXY - the speed of

Posted by DigiNomad on 5th of Jul 2022 at 02:44 pm

DXY - the speed of this advance has been incredible. Making commodities less expensive in dollar terms. If the dollar ever weakens, we could feel some Euro style inflation pain (as if it hasn't been bad enough in the USA already). 

This is great to see!

Ags

Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Jul 2022 at 03:59 pm

This is great to see! Unless you're a farmer...or Bill Gates, I suppose.   Anyway, Happy 4th everyone! Have a great weekend. 

Correction - 2% risk for that trade...not 2% total risk. But total risk is still above 1%. 

Agree. I did it in SPY though and I've been rolling around 5% invested since November and all options. A little less than 2% total risk. Fingers crossed since I'm definitely in the medium term bear camp. 

Just placed the biggest trade

Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Jul 2022 at 03:34 pm

Just placed the biggest trade of my life...but I did it with a bracket order. Stop at yesterday's lows and a profit taker order 3% higher.  I would have placed it earlier but my system got wacky on me right when I tried to place it the first time (of course).

kobie  - it's a lot

NQ 5min cup n handle?

Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Jul 2022 at 03:15 pm

kobie  - it's a lot of work, but this market basically demands it. Seems like SPX gave us an objective new stop level today...

VIX looks like it's giving

Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Jul 2022 at 02:15 pm

VIX looks like it's giving up. Market rally into the close?

SMH looked good for entry

Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Jul 2022 at 02:10 pm

SMH looked good for entry with divergence and 5 touches inside the wedge...but stopped at the 50 on the first weak push.

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