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Also, did the ATR get hit on the half day cycle chart? That
would put everything into a sell configuration. I'm doing the
should or stay or should I go dance into the close with my index
positions. The fact that I'm feeling like giving up on the meager
short term targets I was hoping to achieve with the latest trades
probably means we're about to get a rally. But wow, the news
internationally just keeps getting worse. The backdrop is
SPX - Matt, I'm wondering how your SPX 120 min cycles chart
looks heading into the close today? Yesterday it had a buy cycle
with a demark 13. Is that still valid after today's
INMD - FWIW, I put on a small risk reversal / calendar trade
(long call farther out than short put). But not very liquid except
the front month near the money.
TSLA - surprising strength given its ridiculous valuation and
the fact that Elon might be forced to liquidate to the point where
he's no longer in control (I think it's somewhat likely). My medium
term target is still $520, but I think it will go lower after that
System on Matt's Systems? I'm thinking to build a VAR
based model that allows for an allocation to these models. Anyone
already have one? It would be a bit complex and would probably have
to backtest the number of signals generated by the various systems
over the years. For example, if you allocated 30% of a portfolio to
system trades, including option trades, how would you maintain that
average on a VAR basis over time? Maybe 7 or 8% of 30% per system
in order to allow for times when multiple trades are in play?
Just off the top of my head...
DBC - hell of a candle forming on the weekly
SPX - Inverse head and shoulders forming on 1 min?
5 waves to ABC - Steve, ever since you pointed this out in the
newsletter, it seems like I'm seeing it in a LOT of my charts
(latest was JEPI 15 min where it's clear as a bell).
Out with a small profit - decent only because I went in big.
Reduced my target to 20 EMA because this bounce has been so weak.
Happy to be out with a win.
SPY - When the market opened today I was super confident the big
trade I put on Friday was going to recover and go my way by the
DXY - the speed of this advance has been incredible. Making
commodities less expensive in dollar terms. If the dollar ever
weakens, we could feel some Euro style inflation pain (as if it
hasn't been bad enough in the USA already).
This is great to see! Unless you're a farmer...or Bill Gates, I
suppose. Anyway, Happy 4th everyone! Have a great
Correction - 2% risk for that trade...not 2% total risk. But
total risk is still above 1%.
Agree. I did it in SPY though and I've been rolling around 5%
invested since November and all options. A little less than 2%
total risk. Fingers crossed since I'm definitely in the medium term
Just placed the biggest trade of my life...but I did it with a
bracket order. Stop at yesterday's lows and a profit taker order 3%
higher. I would have placed it earlier but my system got
wacky on me right when I tried to place it the first time (of
kobie - it's a lot of work, but this market basically
demands it. Seems like SPX gave us an objective new stop level
VIX looks like it's giving up. Market rally into the close?
SMH looked good for entry with divergence and 5 touches inside
the wedge...but stopped at the 50 on the first weak push.
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