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TSLA - PE is 110,

TSLA nice

Posted by DigiNomad on 21st of Jul 2022 at 01:24 pm

TSLA - PE is 110, which is coincidentally the exact number of competing models coming to the market in the next year or so (per analyst on CNBC today).  These hundred plus PE stories always end in tears...or at least years of marking time to unwind the valuation (e.g. AMZN). Will be interesting to see if TSLA gets the easy deflation over time  like AMZN or if it eventually gets slammed to finish out this bear cycle. 

Santelli had a good piece about this the other day. Basically the same premise - maybe just getting started. Strange to be the best house in a horrible neighborhood. Politicians globally seemed to have lost it. 

Thanks - appreciate the follow

Nasdaq Highs-Lows

Posted by DigiNomad on 20th of Jul 2022 at 09:13 pm

Thanks - appreciate the follow up!  (I chose TradingView over Stockcharts...would love to hear why that was a bad or good move).I know history doesn't necessarily repeat, but it often rhymes. It looks like maybe we're entering a period similar to March  through June 2008. I'm a huge bear in the medium term and think the messaging in the media about how we're near a bottom is nonsense given these economic circumstance haven't occurred in 40+ years, if ever (e..g. forward returns after pullbacks of this magnitude are followed by major gains 90% of the time, blah blah blah). The Fed is not coming to the rescue...that's all we need to know.  BUT....market mechanics are such that the bull side needs to gain more followers before the market can move lower. Paradoxically, markets typically bottom when sellers exhaust themselves and only buyers are left. Sellers are currently somewhat exhausted and need to recharge, IMO. 

Did the indicator go positive

Nasdaq Highs-Lows

Posted by DigiNomad on 20th of Jul 2022 at 08:10 pm

Did the indicator go positive in previous bear market rallies of significant magnitude? Seems like it might on the bigger / longer term rallies...and I'm not thinking of the  V rallies like we had out of March 2020 since that was 100% manufactured by the global central banks.

These are about to come

Posted by DigiNomad on 20th of Jul 2022 at 04:51 pm

These are about to come off the board. One of my best months ever.  I'm going to miss the volatility (if it doesn't return soon).

Scooter - I don't know the short cut keys, but I have the parallel channel tool set as a "favorite" in my TradingView account. Thanks for the tip. 

Selling puts is my bread and butter (100% of my IRA's and most of my taxable accounts). Never layered them though. Interesting approach. In something with options as liquid as TSLA's are, I personally would have sold a put spread with the short strike where the technicals indicated risk was minimal with the long strike positioned to give me the desired profit for the trade. Wider spreads are typically better than more spreads...at least from my research. When I get challenged, I typically roll the short strike down and double or roll out and down for more credit and time to be right (no double on the roll out and down).  Your trade ties up a lot of capital, but you made money and I sat it out. Nice trade. 

All short or spreads? If all short, why did you layer the strikes? 

Symmetry - maybe I'm missing something but I think that the parallel channel tool typically provides the same benefits as measuring symmetry manually?  (except at the start of a new trend). On a related note, I've found that before a trend changes (on any time frame), the channel tends to break in the direction of the trend (so if a downtrend, price breaks below the channel)...and that is a high probability signal that a reversal is coming that will actually break the other side of the channel and start a new trend (time frame dependent). Look at the recent break of the SPY channel to the downside as an example. It just happened, but I've been monitoring it for months now and it does seem to be a pervasive phenomenon...

Great call on this name. I think I got in when you first posted. Thanks.

Maybe buy a straddle or strangle? I'm typically looking to sell volatility but this is an interesting data point. 

Kobie - probably just being

FANG names

Posted by DigiNomad on 20th of Jul 2022 at 01:55 pm

Kobie - probably just being lazy. I'm not buying it now, but it's tempting because it's an easy sell if I'm wrong (you don't know where the bottom is, just buy high quality companies for the long term, blah, blah blah)

Shifted from short to aggressively

FANG names

Posted by DigiNomad on 20th of Jul 2022 at 01:40 pm

Shifted from short to aggressively  long for the last couple weeks.. Matt, Steve & community have been nailing the predictions. Makes my life a lot easier. Thanks BPT!

GOOG a canary in the

FANG names

Posted by DigiNomad on 20th of Jul 2022 at 01:30 pm

GOOG a canary in the coal mine? I actually want to buy it for the long term simply because it's Google and because statistically speaking stocks do well after splits. However, it's still expensive (IMO) at current earnings...and they're likely to be revised down for the future. I'm standing by call that this market won't be done going down until TSLA and AAPL get whacked (sub $500 and $110 respectively)

GOOG - I've had a

Posted by DigiNomad on 18th of Jul 2022 at 10:55 am

GOOG - I've had a short put / credit spread on for a couple weeks now. I would normally close it out with this level of profit, but all of the sudden I have a massive amount of contracts and the commissions are going to be a killer. Oops. 

/ES - That was a

Posted by DigiNomad on 18th of Jul 2022 at 09:52 am

/ES - That was a crazy candle. .What happened? Out of sync with SPX by .2% at the moment. 

VIX - if I was

Posted by DigiNomad on 14th of Jul 2022 at 05:15 pm

VIX - if I was just looking at the 15 min chart without knowing the underlying, I'd be leaning short. 

I was a fairly high level Fed Gov / DoD Contracting Officer in a previous life (after an 8 year active duty stint in Navy SpecOps). Being at the management level of a Gov org writing contracts to the tune of 1.5 - 2 billion per year (while trying to build up my finance side hustle  / true passion - always with full disclosures to SEC and Fed Gov) did NOT help my confidence in the Gov's ability to allocate capital. The more you know, the scarier it is! 

I know. I think I'm just fully coming to terms with it. Better late than never. 

SMH - is it just

Posted by DigiNomad on 14th of Jul 2022 at 03:36 pm

SMH - is it just me or does it take news about Gov support / money printing to trigger a rally these days? CHIPS act nearing bipartisan support...and whoosh. 

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