DXYZ - founder on Fast Money. Karen Finerman asked him the NAV question I've been asking repeatedly on here and...he ducked it. Said they determine NAV quarterly. Lol - so there's a shock coming. Impressive guy though.

Karen circled back to NAV issue and he said "one nice thing about being listed on the NYSE is that investors get to decide what it's worth every trading day"

Slick!   

This is troubling and sort  of insane, but unfortunately not all that surprising.  There will be all kinds of things said to deflect from the things are provable in this story (the person presenting it is bad, etc, etc)....and many will shut it out because they fall for the same strategy over and over that keeps them from looking any deeper. Sad.  If you know something about who posted this, ignore it for 3 minutes. Just watch the video and ignore the people trying to get you to discredit it before you've even given it a chance.  (FWIW - I have no knowledge of or background on the person who posted this. Found it from someone posting to a Mark Minervini post, i think).  

https://twitter.com/JamesOKeefeIII/status/1778157381907513802

Back in the range? I've been following this guy (@JoesephJames07) that preaches about rotating above and below ranges in his nightly videos (he repeats the same strategy setup for the next day almost every night but does it on current SPX and SPY charts...which I actually find really helpful even though it's super redundant). Anyway, he talks about moving above and below the range and how a push above can be measured to predict the size of the move below...or vice versa. 

Ahh, I was looking on a different time frame....slightly different idea about where the supply was sitting.

On the 1hr, today's action looks incredibly similar to action we've been seeing for months now...but only if you flip it upside down. Consolidating in the lower 3rd of the candle - low tight flag look. 

If PPI comes in weak or just inline it would mean that producer are passing on more costs to consumers than they are incurring. Could get a massive rally after today's gut check. Inflation inflates....and it is great until consumers push back and producers start incurring more costs than they can pass on.  I'm not sure we're at the hard pushback phase yet. Gov flooding companies with funds via contracts and they are going out to buy CHIPS, servers, AI services, etc...without really having a rigid cost objective because many of the contracts are cost plus (we weren't allowed to argue with costs unless they completely screwed the pooch on the submission and didn't "gundeck" the numbers like everyone knows how to do to get past a Fed Contracts person).  

I almost got fired (hard to do) once when I was a branch chief and had a fit about a company charging $148,000 for a single "modular server rack"...which they said we needed 8 of. I went to the facility (very very rare...and they didn't like it) and made sure it was what I thought a server rack was. It was a standard rack and called "modular" because you could move the rails to fit different size power supplies (power supply for this application, but it could be moved around to take anything). They said this qualified it for "R&D" and therefore justified the price.  I lost it.  Needless to say, the CEO got wind of me being a pest, called the Admiral, who called the SES I worked for....and I got told to stand down. Eventually, I signed a 1.2 million dollar order for  8 modular server racks with options for 34 more, but did so under protest (sort of...I still gave in and signed it as the branch chief). Soon after that I got a big promotion into acquisition policy.  I'll never know for sure, but I suspect it had a lot to do with me asking to many questions and looking too closely at pricing while in direct operations. In policy, I told people how to do things and what was being done wrong but I was not longer signing contracts directly..and they just ignored the guidance as is standard in Gov offices.  Gov spending wouldn't be that bad if it was spending that was done effectively. I promise, it's not. Gov spending as it's currently done would make the even the most hard core leftist blush. 

NYCB crash mode - I can't imagine the highly politically connected owners of this don't get some attention from the Fed put people pretty soon.  Could be in the form of another funding program where they pull in junk assets from the bank and make them the taxpayers problem or QE to hide the truth from people who don't understand this stuff but know that lowering rates right now would be bad. 

haha. Totally.

I just got a scanner notification saying "Biden promises Fed will cut rates despite high inflation read"  - it was verbal, not written, but something like that. Is that old news from when he whispered it on stage the other day or did he double down again? 

TLT vs IBTE - I engaged in some aggressive window dressing to close out March (who wants to show a bunch of cash available after a record quarter? No one).
Whatever I didn't have allocated on the last day of the quarter I put in either TLT or IBTE. TLT stopped out that Monday (because everyone else probably did the same as me and then bailed) and I moved all of that allocation to IBTE. That has been a decent move. 

You should try a convection oven...heats more evenly. 

KRE - bear face ripping commenced on command. Not bad. Haha.  Not a face ripper yet, but there's still 90 minutes to go and Janet and JP are unaccounted for.  

HYG measured move on break looks to be around 75.20. Would have to get through a level to get there, but seems like a reasonable target down to a major demand zone. 

HYG - similar look to KRE, similar drivers. 

KRE accelerating lower now. Which usually means it's about to tear off the bears faces...but someday that might change. 

10 Year lenders want more juice to lend to US Gov.  Shocker.  Bring in the buyer of last resort - the Fed. Shouldn't be too long now? 

I'm in tiny size until it clears session VWAP again. 

BTC - on the move.  BRRR

CNBC had the the deputy treasury secretary (pretty sure that was his title) on right before the print this morning. He was careful to say that controlling inflation is the Fed's responsibility before going on to say we're in a good place.  I don't know what changed, but that would have brought previous Fed Governors to their feet publicly calling out the administration for spending. It used to happen all the time. The fed only has one lever to pull and controlling inflation is very much a shared responsibility - clearly a responsibility that the administration is choosing to ignore.  The fed bears some responsibility for not using their pulpit to call out the administration as previous Feds have. 

10 Year climbing still. Houthi attacking US Navy.   BRRR goes the press as we ready multi million dollar missiles to take out $20K small boats. 

HQY - I don't get how it keeps holding up. 122 PE with 16% revenue growth...should be a short all day long and double short on Wednesdays after hot CPI...but it's up 3.15%

They are rapidly redistributing wealth away from middle class to lower and upper classes (mostly upper classes) while going full bore into whatever spending dreams they've ever dared to dream but didn't have an no credit limit environment to actually make it happen.  The gaslighting will continue.  We're not the 1st country to experience this and we won't be the last.