Posted by DigiNomad on 15th of Apr 2024 at 02:06 pm
Middle East is the excuse ju jour. Meanwhile, Chinese
deflation potentially spreading and bond yields rising for the
wrong reasons is the 6 ton gorilla in the room.
yes, I"ve been saying that for years, the debt levels in China
have always had me concerned the most. Their real estate market is
close to 70 Trillion there's no way that can be paid back
and again I'm more of a chart purest, I think most of the time
it's built into the charts already. The charts were in a vulerrable
spot for a correction technically anyway, so the news is just the
excuse
Posted by mastermind on 15th of Apr 2024 at 04:45 pm
I think it's a small two bedroom apartment, but don't know the
details beyond that. Oh, I know it wasn't totally finished. They
had to do their own wall and floor coverings.
Posted by DigiNomad on 15th of Apr 2024 at 02:12 pm
Chicken and egg question, I suppose. But it makes more sense to
me that the charts were positioned how they were because they saw
the news coming before the news was printed, not vice versa. At the
end of the day, in the medium to longer term, fundamentals drive
markets. Deflation and slower growth concerns are driving
this market lower right now. If it was just a war story, the market
would likely be rising (more spending).
I don't think it was a coincidence that the market really
lost it's footing after the US PPI missed to the downside (China
PPI also missed on downside the same day...but much worse).
plus digi with China everyone knows their economic data is
always first filtered through their rose glasses - if China says
their growth was 4%, maybe in reality it was 1% LOL, everyone knows
their numbers always have a fudge factor to them that is positively
bias. Didn't their recent GDP come in at like 1 or 0.1%? If so that
means the real number was negative LOL. Again I'm not saying that
the US doesn't use some creating accounting, clearly they do
because of political reasons, but China is # 1 at that
Posted by DigiNomad on 15th of Apr 2024 at 02:09 pm
The problem is that they essentially listened to western
economists advice to keep adding stimulus to trigger demand....but
it didn't work. Now they have massive debt and low growth.
Double whammy.
here's something you may not know about; Back in the Great
Depression, the US Took the hardest hit across the world. Yes it
was a world wide depression but the US was hit the hardest, it was
much more mild for the UK, why?
It's because of Deflation: The US was the number one exporter of
goods back then, while the UK was more of an importer like we are
now. Because we were the largest exporter we had all these
factories with huge capacity. Deflation comes in when you now
have all these empty factories that cannot ship, and all that
excess capacity is hugely inflationary.
Basically importers were hurt less than exporters.
Contrast that with what you have today: Today it's China that
has all the factors and all that excess capacity - they will be hit
the hardest in a world wide slow down because of all that excess
factor capacity, whereas the US is mostly an importer kind of like
the UK was back in the 1930's that was not hit as hard as the US
during the depression. Basically China should get hit much harder
than the US in such an event. and of course I'm even discussing the
Chinese housing investment market with all those millions of empty
condos
Posted by DigiNomad on 15th of Apr 2024 at 02:19 pm
Agree. But what do you do if you're already in max stimulus, buy
the election at all costs mode and the market doesn't respond? I
mean, Gov spending has kept the market levitated despite leading
econ indicators being down for a record number of months in a row.
It seems we've backed ourselves into a corner. The big
mistake was bailing out everyone when SVB failed - we needed to
take the medicine.
When SVB failed and everyone there got made whole, it basically
sent the message to everyone that FDIC insurance is now
unlimited ... lol ... at least for the politically connected
institutions that is ...
yes that's the problem, we're all F'd LOL. I'm simply saying if
things get really really really bad, it will probably be even worse
in China, but still bad here too, it's not like it will be good
here LOL
Posted by DigiNomad on 15th of Apr 2024 at 02:29 pm
These macro econ types from a pod I watched this weekend have
some good insight about where we're at and where we might be
heading (not just about Gold..that's just a clickbait headline).
One insight I thought was particularly interesting is how our
current predicament is very familiar to EM market
participants...just not so much to us DM types. Also, they
contradicted my thoughts that the Gov can't spend even more. Said
that they will very likely start sending out checks again....and
the explanation seemed plausible.
Middle East is the excuse
Posted by DigiNomad on 15th of Apr 2024 at 02:06 pm
Middle East is the excuse ju jour. Meanwhile, Chinese deflation potentially spreading and bond yields rising for the wrong reasons is the 6 ton gorilla in the room.
yes, I"ve been saying that
Posted by matt on 15th of Apr 2024 at 02:08 pm
yes, I"ve been saying that for years, the debt levels in China have always had me concerned the most. Their real estate market is close to 70 Trillion there's no way that can be paid back
and again I'm more of a chart purest, I think most of the time it's built into the charts already. The charts were in a vulerrable spot for a correction technically anyway, so the news is just the excuse
My son in China bought
Posted by mastermind on 15th of Apr 2024 at 02:27 pm
My son in China bought a place near Shanghai a few years ago (without asking my advice). He paid $300,000 and it's now worth $180k.
Brutal. I'm almost surprised it
Posted by foody518 on 15th of Apr 2024 at 04:20 pm
Brutal. I'm almost surprised it didn't cost more back then. One heckuva real estate bubble was blown up
I think it's a small
Posted by mastermind on 15th of Apr 2024 at 04:45 pm
I think it's a small two bedroom apartment, but don't know the details beyond that. Oh, I know it wasn't totally finished. They had to do their own wall and floor coverings.
ugh man
Posted by matt on 15th of Apr 2024 at 02:36 pm
ugh man
Ouch!
Posted by DigiNomad on 15th of Apr 2024 at 02:30 pm
Ouch!
Chicken and egg question, I
Posted by DigiNomad on 15th of Apr 2024 at 02:12 pm
Chicken and egg question, I suppose. But it makes more sense to me that the charts were positioned how they were because they saw the news coming before the news was printed, not vice versa. At the end of the day, in the medium to longer term, fundamentals drive markets. Deflation and slower growth concerns are driving this market lower right now. If it was just a war story, the market would likely be rising (more spending).
I don't think it was a coincidence that the market really lost it's footing after the US PPI missed to the downside (China PPI also missed on downside the same day...but much worse).
plus digi with China everyone
Posted by matt on 15th of Apr 2024 at 02:20 pm
plus digi with China everyone knows their economic data is always first filtered through their rose glasses - if China says their growth was 4%, maybe in reality it was 1% LOL, everyone knows their numbers always have a fudge factor to them that is positively bias. Didn't their recent GDP come in at like 1 or 0.1%? If so that means the real number was negative LOL. Again I'm not saying that the US doesn't use some creating accounting, clearly they do because of political reasons, but China is # 1 at that
We seem to be neck
Posted by DigiNomad on 15th of Apr 2024 at 02:21 pm
We seem to be neck and neck these days, but China did report a huge PPI miss last week when US also missed on PPI.
The problem is that they
Posted by DigiNomad on 15th of Apr 2024 at 02:09 pm
The problem is that they essentially listened to western economists advice to keep adding stimulus to trigger demand....but it didn't work. Now they have massive debt and low growth. Double whammy.
here's something you may not
Posted by matt on 15th of Apr 2024 at 02:15 pm
here's something you may not know about; Back in the Great Depression, the US Took the hardest hit across the world. Yes it was a world wide depression but the US was hit the hardest, it was much more mild for the UK, why?
It's because of Deflation: The US was the number one exporter of goods back then, while the UK was more of an importer like we are now. Because we were the largest exporter we had all these factories with huge capacity. Deflation comes in when you now have all these empty factories that cannot ship, and all that excess capacity is hugely inflationary.
Basically importers were hurt less than exporters.
Contrast that with what you have today: Today it's China that has all the factors and all that excess capacity - they will be hit the hardest in a world wide slow down because of all that excess factor capacity, whereas the US is mostly an importer kind of like the UK was back in the 1930's that was not hit as hard as the US during the depression. Basically China should get hit much harder than the US in such an event. and of course I'm even discussing the Chinese housing investment market with all those millions of empty condos
Agree. But what do you
Posted by DigiNomad on 15th of Apr 2024 at 02:19 pm
Agree. But what do you do if you're already in max stimulus, buy the election at all costs mode and the market doesn't respond? I mean, Gov spending has kept the market levitated despite leading econ indicators being down for a record number of months in a row. It seems we've backed ourselves into a corner. The big mistake was bailing out everyone when SVB failed - we needed to take the medicine.
When SVB failed and everyone
Posted by mla127 on 15th of Apr 2024 at 02:38 pm
When SVB failed and everyone there got made whole, it basically sent the message to everyone that FDIC insurance is now unlimited ... lol ... at least for the politically connected institutions that is ...
yes that's the problem, we're
Posted by matt on 15th of Apr 2024 at 02:21 pm
yes that's the problem, we're all F'd LOL. I'm simply saying if things get really really really bad, it will probably be even worse in China, but still bad here too, it's not like it will be good here LOL
These macro econ types from
Posted by DigiNomad on 15th of Apr 2024 at 02:29 pm
These macro econ types from a pod I watched this weekend have some good insight about where we're at and where we might be heading (not just about Gold..that's just a clickbait headline). One insight I thought was particularly interesting is how our current predicament is very familiar to EM market participants...just not so much to us DM types. Also, they contradicted my thoughts that the Gov can't spend even more. Said that they will very likely start sending out checks again....and the explanation seemed plausible.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcNLaVmfxzE&t=15s
My chart says US is
Posted by laouuu on 15th of Apr 2024 at 02:26 pm
My chart says US is going to underperform China for a period of time...