RE: The SPY Long Trades,

The Strap Long trade is right on the verge of triggering, it keeps turning on and off, and will probably go to the wire.

The QE BTS long is looking pretty stable though.

I just sent out an early alert for these trades, I'll be confirming them at the close. 

Lots of times with software requests you have to fix a few bugs in order to get it to compile, but it's improving ridiculously fast.

Try ctrl + r, or command + r if you're on mac.

Yeah, the ES system doesn't confirm a trade signal until the close of the futures market, the new candle for tomorrow is already open, so our indicator is showing the trade closing out, but it won't be confirmed until tomorrow at 5 PM EST.

First STS is always Green, Second is Blue, first bar of any STS is purple to highlight that it is new for that bar.

Has nothing to do with confidence, although Matt does like waiting for a second signal or a retracement to the 9 EMA in some cases.

It's still open, it will currently close tomorrow though, honestly doubt even a monster down day would cause it to hold at this point.

Purple is just a new STS, the exit or stop price is the price listed there, in this case 3993.

We track the daily close, but you could use intraday, neither is a perfect choice, if you use intraday and the system stays long you will have to look for somewhere to reenter, if you use the close price you may get caught in a strong downward move and have more losses than you would using just the intraday.

The purple and blue lines are an ATR trailing stop, when you have a purple line above the price that means the ATR is bearish, when you have a blue line below the price that means the ATR is bullish. 

We're pushing an update to SMS here in a few days and that should be addressed. 

We've added the 4x MA ribbon with the BPT MA Deluxe as well as the MACD to the charts for the KISS System, you can see here using autozone, AZO, that you got a confirmation pinch as well as an expansion of the MACD at the same time the system entered.

This was a pretty monster trade, entering at 2,150.94 and exiting at 2402 if you used the STS or 2393.46 if you waited for the close. Almost 12% since September 29th, and a great example of how to use the additional indicators to look for confirmation on entry.

The STS Tables have been updated.

The STS section has been updated to reflect the close.

KOLD has had a huge rally over the last week and the STS on the newly formed Long was 27% away, as an inverse ETF it was reacting to decreasing sales to Europe which has not had a very cold winter.

This morning the US announced an LNG partnership with the UK though that has boosted the NatGas sector. You should be looking at the distance between the close and the STS and consider if that's within your acceptable drawdown risk, and maybe consider skipping trades that are heavily extended over the 9 EMA like KOLD was yesterday.

We have been avoiding referring to the STS levels as a system because they're more of a useful set of criteria for considering potential trades, one that was that extended was a riskier bet than most.

We're also having a discussion of pulling triple ETF's out of the ETF list which is currently decided based only on the top 100 ETF's by volume. We have repeatedly said that it's a beta product, but I'll slap a big disclaimer at the top.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-britain-launch-energy-partnership-boost-supplies-2022-12-07/

The STS has been updated for a few hours now, but I wanted to share a new feature with you guys, if you go to any of the baskets it now tells you what changed for the day, lots of stuff got stoped out or started a new stop level so you should check it out, but here's the ETF Basket as an example.

While there were 3 new longs they were all Short or Ultrashort ETF's. KOLD is natural gas while PSQ and QID are both QQQ.

It's going to be a feature moving forward.

I'm actually mostly done automating  already,  just working on styling, and setting up some email hooks.

7 instruments had STS updates today, none went flat, and none started a new trend, I've linked the charts for the ones that updated below.

JD, BIDU, MKTX, MGM, CNC, PFE, CAG

STS tables have been updated for the day.

I know you can find it on trading view.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPY/Ba4s3Xnu-spy-with-demark/

For instance on the last two SPY trades you'd have been better off waiting for the reversion back to below the 9.

Matt and I were talking the other day about the first entries and they're often because of a big spike up above the 9 day EMA, I haven't quantified what percent of them are like that, but just from looking at the charts it often seems like you can get slightly better pricing by watching for a reversion back to or under the 9.


I have seen some though where you miss out on a big move at the beginning of a breakout, so as in most things there's no perfect strategy.