The systems returned thousands of points in the past year. Now
folks are whining about one single trade that may get stopped out.
If you’re one of the whiners you really need to reconsider your
expectations and attitude. Please stop polluting the board with
your complaints.
I get the frustration, welcome to trading. I have doubted
and seconded guessed the system trades for longer than I am willing
to admit and exited early at a loss, because of fear. Last
quarter I have moved from frustration and fear to just trusting the
SPY/ES trades. Yes you will take a loss or losses and
maybe on your first trade or two. Learn from me who has been
around for 5+ years? Take the trades as they are posted and
the stats say you will do well. Someone posted a 70% gain last
year. The ES system made over 4200 points last year, at $5/1
point that is $21000 for trading just 1 contract. Sadly I was
in fear and not smart enough to just follow the system better and
for worse. Hang in there and stay the course. I am with
you this current loss is no fun but I know that long term I will be
ahead. Very few systems all 22 has this kind of track record.
I think we are so use to winning trades that a loss seems
like we have been robbed. These stats are VERY good and I am
very thankful to Matt and Steve for all they do.
I can't of course speak to why/when systems should trigger but I
can say in my experience that often the systems are nail
biters as they are taking positions one way when the market seems
to be going the other.. but the stats are the stats and while it
still is always going to sting when there's a big losing trade (and
moreso i'm sure if you don't have a consistent history of personal
wins with the system) over time it's really hard to find a
complaint about something that provides so many winning trades.
Look at the trades from last year and while it was an incredible
year there were a few trades that sucked. That's just how it goes
and getting my head around that and being able to zoom out at the
bigger picture has helped my trading both within the systems and
outside of it.
I won't trade on systems alone, they are a guide, but when a
straight up bull run is staring you in the face from early Jan and
the systems have not taken even one long, and are still sitting on
the sidelines (on the long side), you gotta wonder.
Anyway made my own decisions, the rest is history.
Think of the systems as mutually exclusive to the setups
provided - just last weekend I posted 8 setups that all moved
higher (unusual but happens in a strong trend). The point
here is to diversify and consider employing some capital to setups
that you find appealing and trade them in accordance with YOUR
PLAN. The SPY systems are reversion to mean systems for the
most part not trending systems.
Posted by bpozdoll1717 on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 04:29 pm
For those with a day job, those set-ups are hard to execute and
follow. If we were provided entry, stops, and profit taking
levels, then they would work better. Maybe it is just my
lack of skills. But that is why I like the systems.
Less thinking and time. But for many of the experts on
this site those setups probably work very well.
it's one out of 23 reversion to mean systems, it's also on
ES/MES not SPY. Also the trend following systems have been long for
a week weeks like SPY and QQQ
and regarding that trade, again it's a bad trade, it is what it
is, not the end of the word, it happens. That said, the DVDS is one
of the older systems and I'm going to work on a new exit condition
- the stop out exit condition it uses is a 60 length DVDS, which
makes it slow to move, I want to test some faster responding
indicators.
I appreciate everybody's comments and insights, particularly
those who have shared personal results they've tracked using the
systems.
The separate section idea could be helpful, but briefly
revisiting the open trades each newsletter, even if the results are
underwater or fairly static, and adding any reflection (e.g., if
Matt/Steve are starting to suspect the current flavour of market
action could elude system parameters) would be helpful to someone
like me who is learning.
Posted by crossharry on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 05:13 pm
I'm in the UK and going to bed soon, so would appreciate a
confirmation - apologies if I've missed the message on the board -
did the ES system short trade officially stop out today? I don't
see anything on email. Thanks in advance...
Posted by James_Roe on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 07:14 pm
Yeah, the ES system doesn't confirm a trade signal until the
close of the futures market, the new candle for tomorrow is already
open, so our indicator is showing the trade closing out, but it
won't be confirmed until tomorrow at 5 PM EST.
Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 03:56 pm
If you consider the KISS charts as a system (I do), then they
have caught the vast majority of the bull run. The other systems
look for high probability reversion to mean opportunities, for the
most part. That's why you're not seeing a lot of bullish system
trades outside of the KISS system...which has nailed it.
Posted by bpozdoll1717 on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 08:20 am
I love the systems. They have a great track record and
every system has losses. I know Matt cares and wants us to
do well. My only ask was that when a system is underwater to
provide an update as to what the systems might do next.
That’s all. Aside from that losses are part of the
game and we should look at overall performance.
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 09:01 am
Matt said he was under the weather yesterday so maybe that's why
he did not cover the systems.
I have no compliants about the system but as a member for 5th
year now, I personally would prefer the newsletter to be a bit more
'clear cut' and concise. Just give an example, David Ryan a few
weeks ago said something like 'trading rally now underway to 410
SPY' and that's it. I feel like our newsletter always have so many
bull & bear cases.
This is also the longest report I subsribe to and I think it can
definitely be made more concise which will be good for Matt/Steve
as well. like someone else said, sometimes there is a 30 min talk
about the systems. Thanks everyone.
Let’s admit it. We are always celebrating 50 point drops over a
100 point rally. And calling it bear market rally. By doing so lot
of people will hesitate to take long entries. Human
psychology
Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 09:46 am
I have to disagree. I wouldn't subscribe if they didn't have a
healthy amount of skepticism about, for example, their Elliot wave
counts and present both bull and bear cases as a result. The
guy calling the rally to 410 on the button is going to make some
very bad calls over time. I wouldn't trust anyone who is that
confident about calling the market...and I do this for a living.
You can use the "New Player" option to only watch the slides
you're interested in.
thanks for letting him know about the new player feature
also, I agree with you about over confident analysts - one thing
I've learned about the market is that it's fine to be confident and
have a conviction in your analysis, BUT you always have to stay
humble, do not get cocky - the 'market gods' will eventually punish
you. I've followed many over the years, and one guy in particular
who was so hot last year, also go VERY cocky making comments like
he's figured it all out etc, well guess what, he's been dead wrong
now for a while. Stay humble, and always be willing to adapt
and adjust to what happens.
as I said on the weekend - we are always students of the
market, unlike school or college where you eventually graduate from
- we never graduate from the markets, we are forever students
Otherwise as far as the market, as you may know my bias for the
past month has been an eventual upside move to 4300 - 4350, and
that 50% retracement we had into December the higher low, which I
favored was a nice gift to go long index ETFs. Now we are up
near resistance and we are in Feb, which is not the best most
usually
anyway I have to go lie down and get off this computer.
Basically I had the worst stomach cramps and pain than I've had in
10 years or more, it was horrible. I so wished I would vomit to
feel better. And plus I have a fever on top of it, was just a
horrible night
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 10:05 am
Matt I know how to use that feature. I was not complaining. Just
some personal feedbacks that I thought may save you and Steve
sometime. Not a big deal for me to just listen to portion of
it.
I discussed the systems here yesterday, discussed on Monday,
again that one system trade is what it is, you will have shitty
trades once in a while, it happens. It's one system out of 23 this
time that has a loser. It will be stopping out at any
moment
anyway I have to run to the pot, LOL
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
The systems returned thousands of
Posted by chlo8888 on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 08:04 am
The systems returned thousands of points in the past year. Now folks are whining about one single trade that may get stopped out. If you’re one of the whiners you really need to reconsider your expectations and attitude. Please stop polluting the board with your complaints.
I see many system comments
Posted by vasiboy on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 03:26 pm
I see many system comments here today
My question is, why haven't any of the other systems taken short positions?
Based on last year the systems would have added to their shorts by now.
Also, other the the KISS, why have no long trades triggered on pullbacks?
Surely having so many systems one should have triggered, I think the bear long even triggered last year.
It is frustrating to watch potential trades go by, and worse still having a loser so close to signing up here.
I get the frustration, welcome
Posted by bk1976 on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 03:42 pm
I get the frustration, welcome to trading. I have doubted and seconded guessed the system trades for longer than I am willing to admit and exited early at a loss, because of fear. Last quarter I have moved from frustration and fear to just trusting the SPY/ES trades. Yes you will take a loss or losses and maybe on your first trade or two. Learn from me who has been around for 5+ years? Take the trades as they are posted and the stats say you will do well. Someone posted a 70% gain last year. The ES system made over 4200 points last year, at $5/1 point that is $21000 for trading just 1 contract. Sadly I was in fear and not smart enough to just follow the system better and for worse. Hang in there and stay the course. I am with you this current loss is no fun but I know that long term I will be ahead. Very few systems all 22 has this kind of track record. I think we are so use to winning trades that a loss seems like we have been robbed. These stats are VERY good and I am very thankful to Matt and Steve for all they do.
I can't of course speak
Posted by greggone on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 03:36 pm
I can't of course speak to why/when systems should trigger but I can say in my experience that often the systems are nail biters as they are taking positions one way when the market seems to be going the other.. but the stats are the stats and while it still is always going to sting when there's a big losing trade (and moreso i'm sure if you don't have a consistent history of personal wins with the system) over time it's really hard to find a complaint about something that provides so many winning trades. Look at the trades from last year and while it was an incredible year there were a few trades that sucked. That's just how it goes and getting my head around that and being able to zoom out at the bigger picture has helped my trading both within the systems and outside of it.
I won't trade on systems
Posted by vasiboy on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 03:45 pm
I won't trade on systems alone, they are a guide, but when a straight up bull run is staring you in the face from early Jan and the systems have not taken even one long, and are still sitting on the sidelines (on the long side), you gotta wonder.
Anyway made my own decisions, the rest is history.
Think of the systems as
Posted by steve on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 03:59 pm
Think of the systems as mutually exclusive to the setups provided - just last weekend I posted 8 setups that all moved higher (unusual but happens in a strong trend). The point here is to diversify and consider employing some capital to setups that you find appealing and trade them in accordance with YOUR PLAN. The SPY systems are reversion to mean systems for the most part not trending systems.
For those with a day
Posted by bpozdoll1717 on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 04:29 pm
For those with a day job, those set-ups are hard to execute and follow. If we were provided entry, stops, and profit taking levels, then they would work better. Maybe it is just my lack of skills. But that is why I like the systems. Less thinking and time. But for many of the experts on this site those setups probably work very well.
it's one out of 23
Posted by matt on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 04:02 pm
it's one out of 23 reversion to mean systems, it's also on ES/MES not SPY. Also the trend following systems have been long for a week weeks like SPY and QQQ
and regarding that trade, again it's a bad trade, it is what it is, not the end of the word, it happens. That said, the DVDS is one of the older systems and I'm going to work on a new exit condition - the stop out exit condition it uses is a 60 length DVDS, which makes it slow to move, I want to test some faster responding indicators.
I appreciate everybody's comments and
Posted by mschwand on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 04:51 pm
I appreciate everybody's comments and insights, particularly those who have shared personal results they've tracked using the systems.
The separate section idea could be helpful, but briefly revisiting the open trades each newsletter, even if the results are underwater or fairly static, and adding any reflection (e.g., if Matt/Steve are starting to suspect the current flavour of market action could elude system parameters) would be helpful to someone like me who is learning.
Hope your symptoms resolve soon, Matt!
The overall backdrop of the
Posted by steverobin on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 05:37 pm
The overall backdrop of the market dictates the short term.
I'm in the UK and
Posted by crossharry on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 05:13 pm
I'm in the UK and going to bed soon, so would appreciate a confirmation - apologies if I've missed the message on the board - did the ES system short trade officially stop out today? I don't see anything on email. Thanks in advance...
System trade must still be
Posted by bpozdoll1717 on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 06:41 pm
System trade must still be open. I didn’t see any notice go out. Or did it close?
It's still open, it will
Posted by James_Roe on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 06:57 pm
It's still open, it will currently close tomorrow though, honestly doubt even a monster down day would cause it to hold at this point.
Hi James, by tomrrow you
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 07:03 pm
Hi James, by tomrrow you meant tomrrow afternoon market close?
Thanks. Really appeciate everyone's effort.
Yeah, the ES system doesn't
Posted by James_Roe on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 07:14 pm
Yeah, the ES system doesn't confirm a trade signal until the close of the futures market, the new candle for tomorrow is already open, so our indicator is showing the trade closing out, but it won't be confirmed until tomorrow at 5 PM EST.
No emails went out and
Posted by bpozdoll1717 on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 06:45 pm
No emails went out and the market did drop after the close. So maybe by 4 it did not signal a close.
no
Posted by steverobin on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 05:36 pm
no
If you consider the KISS
Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 03:56 pm
If you consider the KISS charts as a system (I do), then they have caught the vast majority of the bull run. The other systems look for high probability reversion to mean opportunities, for the most part. That's why you're not seeing a lot of bullish system trades outside of the KISS system...which has nailed it.
Playing hookie after first half
Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 03:58 pm
Playing hookie after first half today.
Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 04:02 pm
your trajectory looks optimistically bearish..
Posted by greggone on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 04:08 pm
your trajectory looks optimistically bearish..
Well, I didn't stop in
Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 09:29 pm
Well, I didn't stop in the trees on purpose. Just making lemonade out of lemons and enjoying the moment. So yeah, optimistically bearish fits the bill
I love the systems. They
Posted by bpozdoll1717 on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 08:20 am
I love the systems. They have a great track record and every system has losses. I know Matt cares and wants us to do well. My only ask was that when a system is underwater to provide an update as to what the systems might do next. That’s all. Aside from that losses are part of the game and we should look at overall performance.
Matt said he was under
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 09:01 am
Matt said he was under the weather yesterday so maybe that's why he did not cover the systems.
I have no compliants about the system but as a member for 5th year now, I personally would prefer the newsletter to be a bit more 'clear cut' and concise. Just give an example, David Ryan a few weeks ago said something like 'trading rally now underway to 410 SPY' and that's it. I feel like our newsletter always have so many bull & bear cases.
This is also the longest report I subsribe to and I think it can definitely be made more concise which will be good for Matt/Steve as well. like someone else said, sometimes there is a 30 min talk about the systems. Thanks everyone.
Let’s admit it. We are
Posted by arun on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 10:05 am
Let’s admit it. We are always celebrating 50 point drops over a 100 point rally. And calling it bear market rally. By doing so lot of people will hesitate to take long entries. Human psychology
I have to disagree. I
Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 09:46 am
I have to disagree. I wouldn't subscribe if they didn't have a healthy amount of skepticism about, for example, their Elliot wave counts and present both bull and bear cases as a result. The guy calling the rally to 410 on the button is going to make some very bad calls over time. I wouldn't trust anyone who is that confident about calling the market...and I do this for a living.
You can use the "New Player" option to only watch the slides you're interested in.
thanks for letting him know
Posted by matt on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 09:55 am
thanks for letting him know about the new player feature
also, I agree with you about over confident analysts - one thing I've learned about the market is that it's fine to be confident and have a conviction in your analysis, BUT you always have to stay humble, do not get cocky - the 'market gods' will eventually punish you. I've followed many over the years, and one guy in particular who was so hot last year, also go VERY cocky making comments like he's figured it all out etc, well guess what, he's been dead wrong now for a while. Stay humble, and always be willing to adapt and adjust to what happens.
as I said on the weekend - we are always students of the market, unlike school or college where you eventually graduate from - we never graduate from the markets, we are forever students
Otherwise as far as the market, as you may know my bias for the past month has been an eventual upside move to 4300 - 4350, and that 50% retracement we had into December the higher low, which I favored was a nice gift to go long index ETFs. Now we are up near resistance and we are in Feb, which is not the best most usually
anyway I have to go lie down and get off this computer. Basically I had the worst stomach cramps and pain than I've had in 10 years or more, it was horrible. I so wished I would vomit to feel better. And plus I have a fever on top of it, was just a horrible night
Sorry you feel bad Matt
Posted by iaranger on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 11:06 am
Sorry you feel bad Matt Market gives us all ulcers ! get better my friend ...
Take care Matt; maybe it's
Posted by cozz101 on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 11:13 am
Take care Matt; maybe it's food poisoning or GI bug? Regardless, those are always the worst. Feel better soon!
Sorry to hear about your
Posted by arun on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 10:07 am
Sorry to hear about your illness. Feel better Matt
Matt I know how to
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 10:05 am
Matt I know how to use that feature. I was not complaining. Just some personal feedbacks that I thought may save you and Steve sometime. Not a big deal for me to just listen to portion of it.
Hope you feel better soon.
I discussed the systems here
Posted by matt on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 09:43 am
I discussed the systems here yesterday, discussed on Monday, again that one system trade is what it is, you will have shitty trades once in a while, it happens. It's one system out of 23 this time that has a loser. It will be stopping out at any moment
anyway I have to run to the pot, LOL