systems update

    Posted by matt on 21st of Feb 2023 at 02:10 pm

    have to get off in flight wifi: what I'm seeing on the systems

    1. DVDS short is still not closing and would be well in the money now 

    2. on SPY I'm seeing possible long entry on Strap and QE BTS

    okay gotta get off

    I see no open DVDS

    Posted by vicky on 21st of Feb 2023 at 04:12 pm

    I see no open DVDS or any other open shorts. . .When was it issued? Why isn't it on the systems page?

    Hey @vicky - You can

    Posted by z0ned on 21st of Feb 2023 at 06:24 pm

    Hey @vicky - You can see the DVDS trade referenced by Matt and IceColdJones on this page:   https://breakpointtrades.com/new_spy/#ES- see the bottom 2 rows.

    Matt.


    I just sent out an

    Posted by James_Roe on 21st of Feb 2023 at 02:20 pm

    I just sent out an early alert for these trades, I'll be confirming them at the close. 

    RE: The SPY Long Trades, The

    Posted by James_Roe on 21st of Feb 2023 at 03:39 pm

    RE: The SPY Long Trades,

    The Strap Long trade is right on the verge of triggering, it keeps turning on and off, and will probably go to the wire.

    The QE BTS long is looking pretty stable though.

    Dealing with infamous EOD tradestation

    Posted by James_Roe on 21st of Feb 2023 at 04:06 pm

    Dealing with infamous EOD tradestation issues, will try and have the update out shortly.

    Both the QE BTS system

    Posted by James_Roe on 21st of Feb 2023 at 04:17 pm

    Both the QE BTS system and STrap system have triggered an initial entry on SPY at 399.09 at the close.

    I've included their stats below, with the QE System being the first set of stats.

    There is a lower profitability

    Posted by James_Roe on 21st of Feb 2023 at 04:48 pm

    There is a lower profitability version of STrap taking a long on ES at the close in 15 minutes, if Matt were here he might take a half position.

    I've included the stats for you guys if you're interested in taking the trade, and Matt will provide updates on it, but we're not taking it for the website.

    After talking to Matt, he

    Posted by James_Roe on 21st of Feb 2023 at 07:09 pm

    After talking to Matt, he wants to take half a position on ES, so we're now long an initial entry with 1 contract at 4005.75, and will be tracking it as a website trade.

    Hello James - Is the

    Posted by kattap on 21st of Feb 2023 at 07:47 pm

    Hello James - Is the DVDS position closed? Please let us know - ES system

    According to the spreadsheet, it

    Posted by mastermind on 21st of Feb 2023 at 08:13 pm

    According to the spreadsheet, it was closed 10 days before it was opened, but I think that was a matter of entering the wrong month for the exit. Nevertheless, I still have some confusion about whether the official numbers are based on the actual system exit or Matt's discretionary exit.

    Evening James - I think

    Posted by z0ned on 21st of Feb 2023 at 07:45 pm

    Evening James - I think you may have meant to type MES (not ES).

    The trades are triggered off

    Posted by James_Roe on 21st of Feb 2023 at 08:27 pm

    The trades are triggered off ES, but yeah we trade MES.

    James, a related question is,

    Posted by junkie on 21st of Feb 2023 at 05:20 pm

    James, a related question is, Is there any way to know whether a prospective trade going to be following the trend or counter-trend based on your trend indicator(s) used by the system? For example, today's trade is still along the bullish trend.  If the trend changes tomorrow, there is a high chance that the new trend my last for some time, so reversing the position or at least hedging might be a profitable strategy. When a new trend is close to be exhausted, the hedge is removed for a profit, and the initial trade is still in play.

    All of the trades are

    Posted by James_Roe on 21st of Feb 2023 at 05:40 pm

    All of the trades are reversion to mean trades except for the breakout long, which means that the vast majority are counter trend trades. The only really trend following stuff on the website is the KISS section, breakout longs, and updates from the newsletters. Steve and Matt do a pretty good job talking about where they think the market is trending at the moment.

    We've done a lot to reduce drawdown on the systems over the last 3 years to make them less painful, but they are still going to be buying when the market is selling, and selling when the market is buying.

    James, I am a bit

    Posted by junkie on 21st of Feb 2023 at 06:00 pm

    James, I am a bit unclear on this difference. My own definition of trending means that DMI indicator is above 25. The distinction between impulsive and corrective in EW speak is related but not exactly pertinent, as we have seen last month and this month (the price could be trending and still be corrective). The price above resistance or below support like on Friday or today is suggestive but not indicative either if the ATR is small. Any comments?

    For me is impossible to

    Posted by heisenberg on 21st of Feb 2023 at 04:22 pm

    For me is impossible to trade the signals if they are above 04.15 hs, ,as I trade options like some members here and close at that time...

    System signals have always been

    Posted by James_Roe on 21st of Feb 2023 at 04:26 pm

    System signals have always been confirmed at the close, I let you guys know 20 minutes before the close that at least one of the trades was going long today.

    Unfortunately I had problems with tradestation, which happens on huge volume days, and had to reboot my machine about 5 minutes after the close.

    I realize it's not perfect, and it's why we're developing a next bar open system, but it is what it is, and is outside of my control and is a non trivial part of why we stopped providing options signals in the first place.

    James, I am sure you

    Posted by junkie on 21st of Feb 2023 at 05:13 pm

    James, I am sure you have investigated this option. I am curious whether the next bar option is similar to the previous bar close option: that is, 30 minutes before the close. This option might be ideal even though it might get a bit worse stats. Or the best guess on the trade 15 minutes before the close. Any comments on this one?

    Next bar open would be

    Posted by James_Roe on 21st of Feb 2023 at 05:38 pm

    Next bar open would be with entries on the open of the following trading day. We're currently finding a mix as to whether or not performance is better or worse using this approach, for subsequent entries we're actually generating limit orders, but the initial entry is just always at the open of the subsequent bar.

    Our current approach is the best guess trade 20 - 15 minutes before the close, with confirmation at the close, the message I put out at around 3:40 EST saying the STrap would go to the wire was because the trade was turning off and on every few seconds, price needed to be below about 399.39, we obviously got there at the close, but leading into the close it wasn't clear we would.

    We've played around some with artificial trading days, ie: excluding the last 30 minutes or rolling that data into the next day but performance has been worse than doing next bar open, and it doesn't address a core complaint of some of our users, ie: having to be around at the market close to execute trades. I suspect most swing traders will prefer the next bar open approach, while a minority of day traders will be annoyed by it.

    James, this discussion is informative.

    Posted by junkie on 21st of Feb 2023 at 05:50 pm

    James, this discussion is informative. My last questions is regarding swing trades versus simple bounce trades, and I second your observation on the difference between swing traders and others. I thought the difference would go in the opposite direction: i.e., swing traders before the close and all others at the open. And the signal before the close will play out on the next day if a trade is a swing trade and not as much if it is a bounce trade.

    I was using the definition

    Posted by James_Roe on 21st of Feb 2023 at 05:55 pm

    I was using the definition of swing trade that I am familiar with which is, "Swing trading refers to the practice of trying to profit from market swings of a minimum of 1 day and as long as several weeks."

    Which is roughly the time frames most of our systems trade for. I guess you could classify these as bounce trades as well, but I suspect our options traders are more likely to be closely managing their positions than the majority of people just waiting on email alerts. They're the ones who want to know at the exact close if a system has signaled, which is impractical from the administrative side.

    https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/trading/swing-trading-setups

    James, we mean the same

    Posted by junkie on 21st of Feb 2023 at 06:04 pm

    James, we mean the same thing. By bounce trades I mean very short trades of one to 3 days. As such, the price is not likely to go far on these trades. Thank you very much for your input!

    thanks James!

    Posted by greggone on 21st of Feb 2023 at 02:31 pm

    thanks James!

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