Sincere question, am I reading

    Posted by mdgfain on 7th of Dec 2022 at 01:08 pm

    Sincere question, am I reading the STS system wrong? ( I’m not that used to relying on it). KOLD was listed as a “NEW LONG” but is down 12.5%. STS is 16.3 and still pretty far away. I MUST be doing this thing wrong. Someone, please help. Thanks!

    KOLD has had a huge

    Posted by James_Roe on 7th of Dec 2022 at 01:51 pm

    KOLD has had a huge rally over the last week and the STS on the newly formed Long was 27% away, as an inverse ETF it was reacting to decreasing sales to Europe which has not had a very cold winter.

    This morning the US announced an LNG partnership with the UK though that has boosted the NatGas sector. You should be looking at the distance between the close and the STS and consider if that's within your acceptable drawdown risk, and maybe consider skipping trades that are heavily extended over the 9 EMA like KOLD was yesterday.

    We have been avoiding referring to the STS levels as a system because they're more of a useful set of criteria for considering potential trades, one that was that extended was a riskier bet than most.

    We're also having a discussion of pulling triple ETF's out of the ETF list which is currently decided based only on the top 100 ETF's by volume. We have repeatedly said that it's a beta product, but I'll slap a big disclaimer at the top.

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-britain-launch-energy-partnership-boost-supplies-2022-12-07/

    James, thanks so much for

    Posted by mdgfain on 7th of Dec 2022 at 02:06 pm

    James, thanks so much for the explanation!  Very helpful. 

    KOLD went long on 12/6

    Posted by 24kau on 7th of Dec 2022 at 01:41 pm

    KOLD went long on 12/6 at which time the STS was $16.30.  It's down (now) a little less than 10% from yesterday's close of $22.33, which is 27% away from the STS of $16.30.

    Nope, correction, can't tell (yet)

    Posted by 24kau on 7th of Dec 2022 at 01:48 pm

    Nope, correction, can't tell (yet) when it went long, yesterday was 12/6, so the data is as of yesterday--my brain is further along in the month I guess.

    guys - first of those

    Posted by matt on 7th of Dec 2022 at 02:06 pm

    guys - first of those tables are beta and we gave you the ability to have a look while we work on them

    use some common sense - when those STS's first pop up, many times price is very extended, check simple things such as how far away price is above the 9 EMA or super far away from the STS - best to look for a pullback. The STS trend stuff is best once a trend has be ongoing, the first entries are generally wide by nature.  Also leveraged ETF's 2 and 3X are going to be inflated, which is why we'll probably remove those

    Also - the systems are best for things that are in bull trends. And these are NOT full systems like the SPY and ES systems, they are more for things that are in a bull trend and up trending, gives ideas for stops etc - a tool, not a full system

    again use some common sense and realize guys James and I get excited to show you things we are working on, this is beta - here you guy guys, take a look at the cool stuff we are working on - honestly we shoot ourselves in foot at times doing that vs waiting for things to be finished and you guys hyper reacting

    I totally understand, Matt. I’m

    Posted by mdgfain on 7th of Dec 2022 at 02:09 pm

    I totally understand, Matt. I’m excited to have the new info and just learning to look at the calls in context and act accordingly. KOLD and BOIL are always crazy. Don’t take my question as criticism. Thanks for your help. 

    I thought KOLD  was a

    Posted by steve on 7th of Dec 2022 at 01:31 pm

    I thought KOLD  was a good trade short - with Natgas very oversold.  I certainly wouldn't have been chasing KOLD after such a run coming into today.   Again, to be clear this is simply a beta version and KOLD is a leveraged play thus the wide ranges. 

    guys the tables are beta

    Posted by matt on 7th of Dec 2022 at 01:43 pm

    guys the tables are beta and not full systems - we put them out to view them

    make sure you understand how that stuff works. First off KOLD is a leveraged ETF - they are going to 2X and 3X percent away from STS, everything is wider than standard on any leveraged ETF, which is why I may remove those 

    also as explained when something first pops with a new STS, many times prices is very extended - we've been saying many times it's better to skip and wait for a pullback.  The STS is best after a trend has been established - when they first go many or most times things are quite extended at that time - look at things such as far price is away from the 9 EMA etc

    Thanks, Steve. This is what

    Posted by mdgfain on 7th of Dec 2022 at 01:39 pm

    Thanks, Steve. This is what I was referring to.  Trying to figure out how to use the STS system. I’ve just been listening to the newsletter and following Community. Never fully warmed up to DVT or STS. Listened but didn’t use fully.  Seems like this New Long may have been misguided. 

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