FYI regarding the reversion to mean system, as you know they've been much quieter this year due to the lower volatility. 

Out of the 12 long sub systems the SPY breakout sub system went long on Tuesday, I didn't see the signal that day due to TS issues, which is good for us as the S&P 500 fell 26 points yesterday and we can enter the trade at better prices this morning. The last trade on this sub system was a slight loser and stopped out as you can see from the image.  For this trade to play out, the hope is that the market will have that 5th wave move up as we've soon as one of the possibilities in the newsletter.  Interestingly the DVDS short is still theoretically open, which triggered way back in April - we manually closed that position weeks ago however for a profit.  As you know, the market has had historical weak breadth with 7/8 names leading the market.

I'm issuing the trade now: For the website I'll show it as $10K of SPY ETF. None of the systems trigger on the ES side of things

uh no - as long as prices are above long term MA's they look to buy dips (surprised they didn't take a long today) - the only systems that look for shorts at this time are rare Exhaustion short - which as I stated before market was nothing close to that (you have to have price trading above the 8 day SMA for over 25 days and %R over 90%). And some shorts like DVDS or 60 Stoch could trigger but are rare as well. Most shorts only occur when price is below the 200 day MA and the market is down trending, the market then looks to short rallies

code up what parameters you think should have triggered a short and then test it over 20 years, paste the statistics that prove it, otherwise it doesn't mean much

we were looking for a pullback, the charts were setup for that - otherwise the current reversion to mean systems are not looking for what you said

doesn't matter as we closed these out a couple weeks ago but here's a follow up on the DVDS shorts. 

posting this to show an example of why I run the systems on both ES and SPY. You don't get the same trades many times and this is an example of that

the ES DVDS short closed out near the highs with a stop at a loss as you can see - it stopped out when the DVDS closed over 0.97, which was its stop. 

For SPY the DVDS did not close over 0.97, got close but didn't and so it's still technically short, which is finally playing out. 

This happens a lot where the same system trades differently on SPY and ES, you don't get the same trades and many times one enters or exits better, as is the case here.

now...I don't want anyone getting but hurt that the SPY DVDS is still technically short and feel like you are missing out. The website does not have the trade open, and I'm not showing you this for that reason, I'm showing you as a real time example of why I run the 21 reversion to mean systems on both the SPY and ES and not just ES.  Also, even though the DVDS is doing better this time on SPY, it switches back and forth, many time the systems do better on ES than SPY, then other times they do better on SPY - it's back and forth.

Also regarding this system trade - even though the SPY is still technically short - I still consider it sort of a failed trade because the way it holds for so long through all that sideways move is not ideal for me. I would have preferred for the system to just closed out in late April vs holding through all that

that system will finally stop out today - first losing trade of it - was due for a loser as at least one of these SPY or ES had 100% past winning trades. I still want to see if I can figure out a better earlier stop on that system

I elected to manually close the trades out for the website a couple weeks back, while some of you stayed in. 

patellee - what silence about DVDS system? I've posted nearly every day about the DVDS here. I haven't spoken about it much in the newsletters but it's been posted here daily. they have not closed out yet but are damn close to closing out - here's a blog search

https://breakpointtrades.com/blog/search/?search_terms=dvds&member_name=matt&start_date=&end_date=

regarding the systems I already covered the DVDS short, nothing new there. I don't have the SPY and ES systems open, don't see where there should be any trades with all this sideways movement but I'll check

someone asked - still no changes, the DVDS short still hasn't closed out, been in the trade over a month, it scaled out at that last major pullback but still holds 1/2 the position. We had elected to exit everything on the website, but I told you guys I would keep you informed to when the system actually closes out

again...the system will either stop out if the DVDS indicator goes above 0.97 or work out and close out lower.  But no changes obviously as the market goes sideways 

been waiting around for this to either stop out or close out - DVDS short is still active even though it was closed for the website - been over a month now, one of the longer system trades. 

still no signs of exiting. Stop out was close if the market rallied more as the DVDS got up to around 0.92 with stop out 0.97 but had dropped again with today's dump

those DVDS shorts are still fighting for their trade LOL

it's fine that you are sticking to the systems, but hopefully you are playing other stuff too - we've had some amazing trade ideas over the last week that would have mitigated any losses on that. Also - would have been good to take at least partial profits on those when the systems did

as far as the DVDS short-  again it's either going to work out or just stop out-  will stop out when DVDS indicator goes over 0.98, currently at 0.86 and 0.87 just so you are aware

and in the meantime try to trade other things

I have to figure it out, that system has quite a few exit options depending if price is above or below the ATR

some exits: %R 10 length exit at 17, DVDS 60 length exit at 0.25, RSI exit at 23%, could also be an exit above ATR, kind of complicated, I'll have to look more at it again

much kudos to a few of you who stated you simply follow stick to the system signals 100% and don't deviate, Cleary that was the right call, congrats!

no signs of those shorts closing out either

closing manually ahead of the Fed.  The system is not closing this is a manual subjective exit ahead of the Fed. For those of you who may just want to stick with the system I'll let you know when it actually closes out. 

The market can do anything here. One option is for the pullback off Friday's highs as a wave ii of 5, and we go up strongly in wave iii of 5 (probably on markets reaction to the Fed) or prices could fall and break the channel and 4050 area ending that possibility. I'm choosing to go to cash sideline with the systems, which have done well capturing that bounce last week and covering 1/2 of that short at last weeks lows.

$SPX - Chart Link- tomorrow pre fed will likely be a chop fest but otherwise that V move on the 30 and 15 mins, I think we'll get some pullback on that tomorrow in the morning and I may consider covering that last piece of the SPY DVDS short depending on the price action

update on the open DVDS short - that stop out is getting closer - the DVDS indicator is now 0.955, stop out level is > 0.98

nothing new here - the one thing I'll note is that DVDS indicator is working higher for now, currently at 0.9 on the SPY, a move over 0.97 will stop that trade out, same for the ES side of things

sethbru- yes it was a discretionary exit but I also added a scaleout component to the system as well so it does happen

I definitely understand just following the systems, that's what they are for. However, as I discussed quite a few times, the DVDS short system had one stop out level based on the DVDS indicator >X such as 0.97. It's one of the older systems and doesn't have other stops. I decided to exit 1/2 because the stop out for the system based on that indicator going above 0.97 is far away and the market could run away for a bit before that gets hit, and I didn't want folks to go through that draw down. 

So far at least was a good call to exit 1/2 and maybe I should have simply chosen to exit it. The indicator is at 0.83 so still a ways from stopping out. A 3rd entry would require quite higher prices of course to trigger, not sure of that level yet.

Otherwise back to the market, because we had 2 strong up days, I think odds favor at least a small consolidation early this week, I may or may not elect to just exit the position on that consolidation. 

whatever I decide to do, I'll still communicate what the system does such as taking a 3rd entry and finally stopping out if that occurs

as I stated yesterday the QE BTS exits on the next day open (this morning) which I forget about yesterday when Is sent out the close order - that said it was fine for us to exit today as prices were slightly lower on the open 

you can see the QE BTS closed out this morning 

the second image shows the completed trades table - nice profits on those! we still have 1/2 open shorts from the DVDS which as I stated I may elect to close out or place some tight stop outside of the systems, I have not decided yet

it is not, the issue with that system is the DVDS stop out is like 0.98, which would require a good sustained rally to hit that, would take out recent highs and go for a bit-  which I would rather not have folks sit through that. Nice that the system reduced it's size by 1/2 yesterday and locked in some gains. I could close it out but I also may choose to wait for a pullback here then close out - but with that info you can choose to do what you want

Update on the systems: First off good thing the DVDS short covered 1/2 yesterday. And we also had that 3rd system go long via the SPY QE BTS but only took 1/2

that said - all the long systems are looking to close:

- Trend/Pullback for SPY and ES, and QE BTS for SPY