man I guess that thing is going to work after all oh well - still not closing out yet, I'll let you know, even though we didn't keep it

also, I'm still not seeing any of the long systems trigger yet

First off no new longs triggered on SPY and I'm not seeing anything long on ES for the reversion to mean systems

regarding that open DVDS short - its continuing to hold. Also, note the 60 length BPT DS Stochastic, it's basically a normalized Stochastic, and a 60 length. 

notice you actually had a valid short trigger where it was testing the underside of 0.80. the second image shows some examples of that, whenever that gets really close to the underside of 80%, you have an objective area to look for a short trigger

I'll let you know if any of the longs trigger, and of course when the DVDS short finally does close out on ES

still waiting for it it all load, had crashed on me, typical TS

maybe that DVDS short, that never closed is still fighting to get out okay LOL

the bear long is meeting conditions for a 1st entry on SPY and ES

the open DVDS short on ES, I'm looking to exit that at any time. I've made a newer version of the system that is better, has less draw downs, it has not yet hit its exit conditions (it's close and could be within a day). That said, I don't think it makes sense to hold the trade through a case where the market rallied back to the highs, thus some sort of stop or manual exit makes sense in that case should the system not exit before the market is ready to rally back

so I'll have some updates on the ES DVDS short. I'll probably do a short Youtube Video about it as I have some things to discuss. 

I am going to be using a slightly adjusted version going forward, that new version is getting closer to an exit, maybe tomorrow

NO changes, the system will continue to hold. One exit condition is a 10 length %R falling below 16%.

Thanks for all the nice comments from most of you.  However some of the complaints, I don't think you guys understand that the trade is in way less draw down than it would have been. 

For example the system has 3 entries and we only did 2 of them. We avoided all the draw down from the 1st entry, and our 1st and 2nd entry was actually the 2nd and 3rd entry on the system.

furthermore - I stated that I'm doing 1/2 position size - so that further reduced the draw down by 1/2, and we also avoided taking the earlier 1st entry. So again while not a fun trade, I don't understand all the whining either about it, and you should take those things into consideration (the 1/2 position size, and we didn't take the early 1st entry) - we are trading it way better than the system

For any nervous nellies - prices are currently only about 45 points away from the 2nd entry, that's not too bad if you felt like closing it out for a minor loser, otherwise the system is not going to close out at this time

and why no longs?  again common sense, we have not had deep enough pullbacks yet for longs. The breakout was the only system that could or should have triggered a long, NOT the reversion to mean systems because the pullbacks have been too shallow, however the breakout trade didn't trigger

yesterday James commented on that DVDS trade saying that it was meeting exit conditions last night, at the moment it no longer is. That said, I may elect to add some sort of stop using yesterday prices or I might elect to take off the trade early depending on what the market does. 

as far as this particular system, as I stated I will be experimenting with some other exit conditions to see if I can improve that. 

also guys the short illustrates my point:  for years and years everyone bugs me, why don't the systems do more shorts? Why do they take so many more longs than shorts, even in bear markets? 

As I've said - shorts are a real bugaboo. When I did my extensive testing I found that it was easy to get into situations where a system would get caught short during a strong rally. MUCH easier for that to happen than for a long trade to get caught in a bad decline. Short systems were much more difficult than the long systems and I had to keep the settings tighter and as a result there were much less short trades.   Even in bear markets the long systems do way way more trades than the short systems do

markets do not move up and down in the same way, the psychology is different, it's not like a Yin and Yan situation where one behaves opposite to the other:  Markets tend to flush down quickly, get oversold, then bounce as fear ramps up. Rallies on the other hand can be strong initially (rip your face off rallies) then price can drift up for long periods of time - it's why topping is more of a process that needs to develop over time, whereas bottoming tends to be quick and sharp. 

markets trade differently on fear than they do on greed

it's one out of 23 reversion to mean systems, it's also on ES/MES not SPY. Also the trend following systems have been long for a week weeks like SPY and QQQ

and regarding that trade, again it's a bad trade, it is what it is, not the end of the word, it happens. That said, the DVDS is one of the older systems and I'm going to work on a new exit condition - the stop out exit condition it uses is a 60 length DVDS, which makes it slow to move, I want to test some faster responding indicators. 

as I have commented a few times -that system is very close to stopping out, it will stop out when the DVDS indicator goes above 0.98, currently it is 0.95

we still have that open DVDS short from the ES systems - upper right. no updates yet it's not closing out yet

system is taking a 2nd entry short at the close of the ES bar at 5 pm EST

I have to run out there to take my Dad to an appointment. I'll update things later this evening

Obviously if anyone held that SPY Stoch Rev - good job - was one of options I gave to either sell 1/2 yesterday or wait and place a stop. Too bad it closed out 1 day before the drop.

But even if you exited the SPY Stoch short, you should have still had the ES short open from the DVDS. which is up nicely today!  

 another good example of using signals on both SPY and ES, so while the SPY closed out, the ES short DID NOT 

2nd entry generated on the Stoch Rev short for SPY. For the website I'll show $10K worth of SDS

for the ES systems - the DVDS short is taking a 1st entry - we have thankfully avoided the draw down on this one. For the website I"m entering a 1/2 position only, which is -1 MES futures contract

As far as long systems  - remember that the KISS Trend systems have been long on the SPX and QQQ for the past 1 - 1 .5  weeks. Today a new STS (smart trailing stop) was generated for the QQQ at 270.9. For the SPX a new STS was not generated and remains wide at 3815

I will be out over the next 3 hrs due to picking my father up at the hospital

On a side note very nice day for many of the trade ideas we've had in place and new ones that I put out this morning. 

One other important note: the VIX is currently up for the day while the SPX had a strong day - sometimes that precludes a reversal day

Looking over the ES systems, the DVDS system entered a short the other day that I missed (good thing) as ES is trading about 45 points higher from that entry, so we avoided that draw down. The system does have good statistics, one thing I'm considering here is seeing how futures open on Sunday evening and possibly sending out a trade notification then, especially if futures are op on Sunday evening  because of some follow through momentum from today.  Another option would be for me to to do nothing and if there is a 2nd entry next week, issue the trade then. 

when the market was at lows overnight and this morning the DVDS system was showing another potential short. However with price well off the lows that trigger is gone. The DVDS needs a slight down move to get the indicator to turn over that it uses.  anyway if price just hangs around here or higher over the next 30 min, we won't see any trade. Obviously ES closing at 4 things could move after hrs, but I doubt it will be that much

that DVDS short setup is showing up again on ES, again what matters is later in the day

yesterday would have been a 'ghost' setup, where it shows up early on then goes away. 

that DVDS short on ES is now not showing. Again the 5 pm close is what matters

nothing new to report on the systems. the DVDS is still expected to enter a short at the close of ES daily bar. no signals on SPY etc

here's the stats on this DVDS short on ES