Reversion to mean systems should

    Posted by vasiboy on 24th of May 2023 at 04:25 pm

    Reversion to mean systems should have picked up on this, the market was way to extended from MA's on Friday, pierced upper bollinger band twice, and now has left an open gap at 4133-42

    uh no - as long

    Posted by matt on 24th of May 2023 at 04:29 pm

    uh no - as long as prices are above long term MA's they look to buy dips (surprised they didn't take a long today) - the only systems that look for shorts at this time are rare Exhaustion short - which as I stated before market was nothing close to that (you have to have price trading above the 8 day SMA for over 25 days and %R over 90%). And some shorts like DVDS or 60 Stoch could trigger but are rare as well. Most shorts only occur when price is below the 200 day MA and the market is down trending, the market then looks to short rallies

    code up what parameters you think should have triggered a short and then test it over 20 years, paste the statistics that prove it, otherwise it doesn't mean much

    we were looking for a pullback, the charts were setup for that - otherwise the current reversion to mean systems are not looking for what you said

    So we shouldn’t expect any

    Posted by vasiboy on 24th of May 2023 at 05:26 pm

    So we shouldn’t expect any system trades if the market is trending up or sideways?

    yes pretty much - you

    Posted by matt on 24th of May 2023 at 05:50 pm

    yes pretty much - you need large enough price drops to trigger. And when the VIX is low not a lot of activity. The breakout can trigger on strong moves higher

    they will do plenty of trades later this year, they can go through periods of little activity.

    What about the KISS systems - they have been active

    also - I start doing manual trades - the setups that I've been putting out have been really good. And, you can make manual trades on the indexes - there's so much other things here to do.

    I'm always tinkering with systems, there will more systems in the future - so we can probably fill in more holes, but in the mean time, plenty of trade opportunities with many things here

    Manual trading is all I

    Posted by vasiboy on 24th of May 2023 at 08:41 pm

    Manual trading is all I have ever done, I have my own methodology and risk tolerance and I predominantly trade forex and indexes (worldwide).

    Reason I subscribed is because of the advertising you were doing saying things like we made 4000 spx points with our system trades, and the systems are asleep.

    Matt is the best automated

    Posted by junkie on 24th of May 2023 at 09:12 pm

    Matt is the best automated system developer I have met. He is very talented in this respect, and his potential is largely underutilized.

    Regarding the systems, I am of the opinion that his systems were developed and backtested for bull markets. During this bear market, a lot of settings no longer apply which result in missing trades or stuck trades. What seems to work in this bear market is quick trades with short duration. A variation of day trades that spans under one day or a day or two at most. Perhaps, a system based on 30- or 60-minute times would be optimal, and trading is done on micro futures to ensure entry and exit as needed. Also, micro futures contracts permit to dispense with the $25,000 requirement for day trading that limits many small account holders.

    Back in 2015, Matt devised an automated system based on 60-minute charts. The idea was good. Perhaps, it could be revised and reimplemented. I see it as rather viable. 

    thanks junkie, I appreciate the

    Posted by matt on 24th of May 2023 at 10:07 pm

    thanks junkie, I appreciate the kind words and also your ideas.

    yes I've started working more on short-term systems, I have some ideas there that we might be able to use eventually

    yes regarding system building I spend what 3% of my time doing that, and the rest on all this other stuff. Like I said last week, in an ideal world that's all I would do, is be in some very cool room with powerful computers where I build systems all day long, I'd love that as that's my passion. 

    and yes the market is now so short term based - such as these ODT options that expire the same day, that's now the largest volume in the options market, everyone short term gamblers now. 

    that's great about you being

    Posted by matt on 24th of May 2023 at 09:11 pm

    that's great about you being an astute trader, we should have more than enough trade ideas for you to find plenty to trade, our trade ideas have been knocking it out of the park.

    Regarding the reversion to mean systems, yes last year they killed it, over 4200 points on ES, and something like 120 trades. Those systems thrive in high volatility, where the VIX is high, and last year the VIX stayed in the 30's almost the whole time. This year the VIX has been in the teens and so the systems have done a lot less trades. It's very understandable.  That will change, and the mean reversion systems will likely start being more active again later this year.

    again just like in life things go in stages - or just like a baseball player or some sports guys - they go through periods of hot and cold, same for the systems. Also the systems are not asleep, only the mean reversion, the trend following are fine. Also, there's a lot of other system type things here that we post a lot such as VIX systems, NYMO/NAMO and many of the custom indicators

    Look, would I like it if the mean reversion systems had done more trades this year, yes? But, that said I think we have a fantastic product here with BPT from our analysis, to our trade ideas, the KISS trend systems, mean reversion systems, and education. I would hope you see that there's a lot of value here even when the mean reversion systems are not doing much and I hope you stick around with us

    BTW Mat I DO trade

    Posted by brophy on 24th of May 2023 at 04:51 pm

    BTW Mat I DO trade your great stock picks. But since I trade options spread some just do not have the open interest and others are just too small. But I keep a running list of yours and Steve's lists. Keep up the great work fellas!

    Well, NVDA is pretty predictable

    Posted by brophy on 24th of May 2023 at 04:38 pm

    Well, NVDA is pretty predictable anyway. Have been buying on pullbacks and selling into rallies fairly regularly. A good vehicle.

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