NO changes, the system will continue to hold. One exit condition
is a 10 length %R falling below 16%.
Thanks for all the nice comments from most of you. However
some of the complaints, I don't think you guys understand that the
trade is in way less draw down than it would have been.
For example the system has 3 entries and we only did 2 of them.
We avoided all the draw down from the 1st entry, and our 1st and
2nd entry was actually the 2nd and 3rd entry on the system.
furthermore - I stated that I'm doing 1/2 position size - so
that further reduced the draw down by 1/2, and we also avoided
taking the earlier 1st entry. So again while not a fun trade, I
don't understand all the whining either about it, and you should
take those things into consideration (the 1/2 position size, and we
didn't take the early 1st entry) - we are trading it way better
than the system
For any nervous nellies - prices are currently only about 45
points away from the 2nd entry, that's not too bad if you felt like
closing it out for a minor loser, otherwise the system is not going
to close out at this time
and why no longs? again common sense, we have not had deep
enough pullbacks yet for longs. The breakout was the only system
that could or should have triggered a long, NOT the reversion to
mean systems because the pullbacks have been too shallow, however
the breakout trade didn't trigger
Hi All, I have to post this to especially newer members. These
systems on BPT are phenominal. i did a heck of a lot of research in
2016-2019 into other possible systems available to be purchased. So
many of them struggled to show PROFIT FACTORS of 2 or more. Many
traders, especially bot traders work on systems between 2-3 and do
well with them. They all look at max draw-down as their major
stumbling block but accept sometimes a draw-down of up to 30%. Many
of them also accept a LOSING YEAR and many losing trades. Obviously
I dropped them all about two years ago and stuck to only trading
the systems as well as longer term INDICES trades based on BPT
Comms board and/or daily newsletters. THE LESS I TRADE THE
BETTER MY RESULTS.
We seldom see losing trades on BPT and whinge like hell when
they do appear.
Learning to trade the systems isn't just get in, sit back and
check your account doubling every 6 months. When most of us were
offered the ES/SPY system back in 2014/15 we did not have the MES
futures contracts available to us and had to accept the E-minis
which has a factor of 10 compared to the ME-minis which most of us
now use especially to hedge some trades which Matt so often warns
us about. When he only takes a half a position, LISTEN and
understand that the technicals short-term do not support what the
longer term systems indicate.
Steve especially states that you have to have your own method of
trading. I have shared some ideas with a number of newbies over the
past year and I hope they have started finding their own way to go.
Even if you have a large draw-down on this ES DVDS trade, suck it
and see. Wait for the next signal which will probably off-set this
one losing trade. Do not expect to be spoon-fed, Do your own
diligence and especially understand the margins you are risking
with every contract.
Posted by jhbernstein on 7th of Feb 2023 at 07:42 am
Excellent thoughts. I would add that if you find yourself
getting {angry/upset/frustrated/whatever} it's a good indicator
that your position sizing may be too large. Consider "selling
down to your sleeping point" as JP Morgan said and let the systems
work over time.
You are right on, love the quote. And it's so true...position
sizing and money management is more important than the indicators I
think. Most new traders don't get that!
ES DVDS short update
Posted by matt on 6th of Feb 2023 at 04:13 pm
NO changes, the system will continue to hold. One exit condition is a 10 length %R falling below 16%.
Thanks for all the nice comments from most of you. However some of the complaints, I don't think you guys understand that the trade is in way less draw down than it would have been.
For example the system has 3 entries and we only did 2 of them. We avoided all the draw down from the 1st entry, and our 1st and 2nd entry was actually the 2nd and 3rd entry on the system.
furthermore - I stated that I'm doing 1/2 position size - so that further reduced the draw down by 1/2, and we also avoided taking the earlier 1st entry. So again while not a fun trade, I don't understand all the whining either about it, and you should take those things into consideration (the 1/2 position size, and we didn't take the early 1st entry) - we are trading it way better than the system
For any nervous nellies - prices are currently only about 45 points away from the 2nd entry, that's not too bad if you felt like closing it out for a minor loser, otherwise the system is not going to close out at this time
and why no longs? again common sense, we have not had deep enough pullbacks yet for longs. The breakout was the only system that could or should have triggered a long, NOT the reversion to mean systems because the pullbacks have been too shallow, however the breakout trade didn't trigger
Hi All, I have to
Posted by mundy on 6th of Feb 2023 at 05:24 pm
Hi All, I have to post this to especially newer members. These systems on BPT are phenominal. i did a heck of a lot of research in 2016-2019 into other possible systems available to be purchased. So many of them struggled to show PROFIT FACTORS of 2 or more. Many traders, especially bot traders work on systems between 2-3 and do well with them. They all look at max draw-down as their major stumbling block but accept sometimes a draw-down of up to 30%. Many of them also accept a LOSING YEAR and many losing trades. Obviously I dropped them all about two years ago and stuck to only trading the systems as well as longer term INDICES trades based on BPT Comms board and/or daily newsletters. THE LESS I TRADE THE BETTER MY RESULTS.
We seldom see losing trades on BPT and whinge like hell when they do appear.
Learning to trade the systems isn't just get in, sit back and check your account doubling every 6 months. When most of us were offered the ES/SPY system back in 2014/15 we did not have the MES futures contracts available to us and had to accept the E-minis which has a factor of 10 compared to the ME-minis which most of us now use especially to hedge some trades which Matt so often warns us about. When he only takes a half a position, LISTEN and understand that the technicals short-term do not support what the longer term systems indicate.
Steve especially states that you have to have your own method of trading. I have shared some ideas with a number of newbies over the past year and I hope they have started finding their own way to go. Even if you have a large draw-down on this ES DVDS trade, suck it and see. Wait for the next signal which will probably off-set this one losing trade. Do not expect to be spoon-fed, Do your own diligence and especially understand the margins you are risking with every contract.
Excellent thoughts. I would add
Posted by jhbernstein on 7th of Feb 2023 at 07:42 am
Excellent thoughts. I would add that if you find yourself getting {angry/upset/frustrated/whatever} it's a good indicator that your position sizing may be too large. Consider "selling down to your sleeping point" as JP Morgan said and let the systems work over time.
You are right on, love
Posted by cozz101 on 7th of Feb 2023 at 09:42 am
You are right on, love the quote. And it's so true...position sizing and money management is more important than the indicators I think. Most new traders don't get that!
That quote is from Jesse
Posted by brophy on 7th of Feb 2023 at 07:52 am
That quote is from Jesse Livermore.