As I reviewed my July trading I notice a pattern. I was
too bearish and it affected my trading.. I didn't get hurt
bad but sure did leave alot on table. I got in at SPX 883
long to scalp and sold SPX 903. I was convenced SPX 875 was
going to break and we were just backtesting broken support at SPX
900 area. Now looking back I was WAY WAY too Focused on near
term profit and didn't let my trade work as the chart signals never
said to sale. (Just said becareful and tighen stops) I
should have moved my stop up to break even and walked
away.
Your NEVER NEVER to good of a trader or been trading long enough
to continue to not learn. I'm getting better so not as upset
at myself as last year when I couldn't even get entry points
right. Now I get entry points right but BAIL out WAY to early
on them. I need to just let my stops do the work and put
trade on and not watch the computer all day.
Agree with you. I think, in general, that most of us on the blog
have been overly bearish, and are frozen in time, waiting for
a pull-back that so far has not happened. This has influenced our
bias and trading style. I believe the best way to deal with trading
is to try to be risk neutral, not risk seeking where you blow out
your cash, or risk averse where you can't get into a trade, or if
you do, you exit way too soon. The market keeps going
up, leaving most of us behind. If and when the
retracement arrives, it may not even get back to where we are today
before it starts to go up again. As for comparisons to other times
for analogies, I think this is not your grandaddies bear
market!
Also, I keep seeing people talking about the Trend. We are
definitley in a trend! I think some of the concepts for trend
days can be extrapolated to larger trends- namely that you can
throw oscillators out the window, and that one of the
primary tools to use should be moving averages. Using a
9-39 ema for the
$spx would have essentially had you in the
entire uptrend since July 13th. This also seems to have a
similar effect on the Mechanical systems, which
appartenlty don't do too well in a trending market, as
there is insufficient volatility.
EOD systems would not do all that great without volatility, but
a good swing system is going to keep you in a trade for days in a
trending market. The key to greater success is to have both.
Posted by junkmaylbox on 4th of Aug 2009 at 01:10 pm
Interesting self-analysis. You are likely to be over-trading
then, trying to play all the opportunities that you see (or nealy
so). Scaling back and being more selective might be a nice change
for you. Good luck!
Posted by pamjohnsp4 on 4th of Aug 2009 at 01:10 pm
I stick it out through the hard part and then bail too early
when I'm making money - it always seems that when my first instinct
is to act I should just wait, and then wait and then wait some more
- if I could just wait three times I'd be getting further
ahead.
Posted by onechosen1 on 4th of Aug 2009 at 01:02 pm
Absolutely agree... me, being a guy who works all day, I have
essentially missed 90% of the rally being focused and watching for
each near term pullback (and there is another one about every 2
weeks) when the overall trend and targets were all much higher
up....have watched this market both bleed and surge up now for 4
months. Unfortunate. Now watching the mid term far more
and turning down the sound on the day to day.
Guys, I understand your emotions, that's what trading does to
you. Technical Analysis is basically the analysis of emotions
on a mass scale, greed and fear, don't fall prey to what we are
analzying via tech analysis. Anyway for Trading, just define
what your objectives are and your time frame; ie 401K, swing trade,
day trade. When we look at charts intra day like the 15 and
30 min charts, those are for traders. If you work a job and
are trying to manage a 401K plan that you can only move once a
month, then you have to ignore the shorter term analysis because
you dont' have flexibity.
We gave targets of SPX 1010 (38% Fib) and even 1100 (50% Fib)
back in Mar and Apr; the SPX has now almost hit the first major
price target . We even gave the time period for the rally as
3 - 6 months, but 6 months is a 38% time retracement so that was
more likely and that appears to be playing out. Here's the
weekly SPX chartthat I've had in all the updates since January of this
year and from the March lows after I drew in the Fibs.
So yes we have looked for
pullbacks along the way, but that's short term and for a 401K you
just have to ignore that stuff. Again define your time
frame and that will help. There are a few people here like
Cspirit who put his 401K back in the market in March and held it,
though I think he might be out now, not sure.
Again don't worry about it, this is a good lesson, define your
timeframe and objectives; are you here to play some swing trades,
or are you trying to day trade, or are you not trading and only
looking to manage 401K's, then you have to ignore the short term
analysis.
Now, if this truely is a large bear market rally, then on the
wave C down, there won't be much talk anymore about missing a rally
etc.
i
n the future I'll have a
longer term section on the website for you guys to
follow.
July Trading (Review of My trading) Issue
Posted by cspirit on 4th of Aug 2009 at 12:24 pm
As I reviewed my July trading I notice a pattern. I was too bearish and it affected my trading.. I didn't get hurt bad but sure did leave alot on table. I got in at SPX 883 long to scalp and sold SPX 903. I was convenced SPX 875 was going to break and we were just backtesting broken support at SPX 900 area. Now looking back I was WAY WAY too Focused on near term profit and didn't let my trade work as the chart signals never said to sale. (Just said becareful and tighen stops) I should have moved my stop up to break even and walked away.
Your NEVER NEVER to good of a trader or been trading long enough to continue to not learn. I'm getting better so not as upset at myself as last year when I couldn't even get entry points right. Now I get entry points right but BAIL out WAY to early on them. I need to just let my stops do the work and put trade on and not watch the computer all day.
I just thought I would share with BLOG
Thanks for posting Chris. We
Posted by bkout3 on 4th of Aug 2009 at 02:46 pm
Thanks for posting Chris. We pretend to be here to make money but in truth we're all just working on our emotional imbalances
pessimistic
Posted by x100 on 4th of Aug 2009 at 01:30 pm
Agree with you. I think, in general, that most of us on the blog have been overly bearish, and are frozen in time, waiting for a pull-back that so far has not happened. This has influenced our bias and trading style. I believe the best way to deal with trading is to try to be risk neutral, not risk seeking where you blow out your cash, or risk averse where you can't get into a trade, or if you do, you exit way too soon. The market keeps going up, leaving most of us behind. If and when the retracement arrives, it may not even get back to where we are today before it starts to go up again. As for comparisons to other times for analogies, I think this is not your grandaddies bear market!
Also, I keep seeing people talking about the Trend. We are definitley in a trend! I think some of the concepts for trend days can be extrapolated to larger trends- namely that you can throw oscillators out the window, and that one of the primary tools to use should be moving averages. Using a 9-39 ema for the $spx would have essentially had you in the entire uptrend since July 13th. This also seems to have a similar effect on the Mechanical systems, which appartenlty don't do too well in a trending market, as there is insufficient volatility.
EOD systems would not do
Posted by rgoodwin on 4th of Aug 2009 at 01:48 pm
EOD systems would not do all that great without volatility, but a good swing system is going to keep you in a trade for days in a trending market. The key to greater success is to have both.
re: July Trading (Review of My trading) Issue
Posted by cw12 on 4th of Aug 2009 at 01:20 pm
Thanks for the post cspirit. I think these type of posts are very helpful, and we can all learn from everyone's mistakes and successes.
Interesting self-analysis. You are likely
Posted by junkmaylbox on 4th of Aug 2009 at 01:10 pm
Interesting self-analysis. You are likely to be over-trading then, trying to play all the opportunities that you see (or nealy so). Scaling back and being more selective might be a nice change for you. Good luck!
Yes
Posted by pamjohnsp4 on 4th of Aug 2009 at 01:10 pm
I stick it out through the hard part and then bail too early when I'm making money - it always seems that when my first instinct is to act I should just wait, and then wait and then wait some more - if I could just wait three times I'd be getting further ahead.
Absolutely agree... me, being a
Posted by onechosen1 on 4th of Aug 2009 at 01:02 pm
Absolutely agree... me, being a guy who works all day, I have essentially missed 90% of the rally being focused and watching for each near term pullback (and there is another one about every 2 weeks) when the overall trend and targets were all much higher up....have watched this market both bleed and surge up now for 4 months. Unfortunate. Now watching the mid term far more and turning down the sound on the day to day.
Guys, I understand your emotions,
Posted by matt on 4th of Aug 2009 at 01:21 pm
Guys, I understand your emotions, that's what trading does to you. Technical Analysis is basically the analysis of emotions on a mass scale, greed and fear, don't fall prey to what we are analzying via tech analysis. Anyway for Trading, just define what your objectives are and your time frame; ie 401K, swing trade, day trade. When we look at charts intra day like the 15 and 30 min charts, those are for traders. If you work a job and are trying to manage a 401K plan that you can only move once a month, then you have to ignore the shorter term analysis because you dont' have flexibity.
We gave targets of SPX 1010 (38% Fib) and even 1100 (50% Fib) back in Mar and Apr; the SPX has now almost hit the first major price target . We even gave the time period for the rally as 3 - 6 months, but 6 months is a 38% time retracement so that was more likely and that appears to be playing out. Here's the weekly SPX chart that I've had in all the updates since January of this year and from the March lows after I drew in the Fibs. So yes we have looked for pullbacks along the way, but that's short term and for a 401K you just have to ignore that stuff. Again define your time frame and that will help. There are a few people here like Cspirit who put his 401K back in the market in March and held it, though I think he might be out now, not sure.
Again don't worry about it, this is a good lesson, define your timeframe and objectives; are you here to play some swing trades, or are you trying to day trade, or are you not trading and only looking to manage 401K's, then you have to ignore the short term analysis.
Now, if this truely is a large bear market rally, then on the wave C down, there won't be much talk anymore about missing a rally etc.
i n the future I'll have a longer term section on the website for you guys to follow.
Matt, I exited my 401K at
Posted by cspirit on 4th of Aug 2009 at 01:34 pm
Matt,
I exited my 401K at SPX 872 area from SPX 685.