no doubt in case there is a positive announcement out of the summit. 

If this inverted head and shoulders follows through, what's the target - is it roughly a 33% or 50% retrace of the fall from the highs or...

Dorsey Wright also noted a change in the long term trend for the US$ to negative.

What say you about the potential for a top in the US$ here or forming here. 

I know you cover the US$ all the time but...

Pam J

The monthly momentum for the US Dollar [ DX/Y] just flipped negative on an intra-month basis, shifting the momentum in this direction for the first time since August. Momentum is simply based off the relationship between a short term moving average versus a longer term moving average. For the US Dollar's monthly momentum, we compare its one-month moving average to its five-month moving average. The calculation is also then exponentially weighted and smoothed. When the one-month moving average crosses above the five-month, we say the monthly momentum is positive. This would suggest a period of strength in the currency. When the one-month moving average crosses below the five-month, we say the monthly momentum is negative. This would suggest a period of weakness in the currency, which is exactly what we're faced with right now. For the year, we have seen the dollar come off its rally high at $81.50, down to the current level around the middle of the ten week trading band at $79. The trend of the US Dollar is still positive, but the change in monthly momentum suggests that we could see some weakness creep into the picture.

How would you manage this current situation.  I am a portfolio manager and I own it in my accounts - I missed Steve's short call on April 24th (I was in Vietnam but that doesn't mean I wouldn't have missed it nor does it mean I would have sold if I did! LOL)

But I am now wondering what the hell to do...a bounce could recoup some losses and without anything better to replace it I'm loath to sell

How many Chief Investment Strategist of American brokerage firms were saying buy Canadian resources and get your money out of the US since 2001?  He has been bullish on commodities and all over Canadian stocks. RJ US bought a Canadian Boutique in 2001. 

Could be falling oil prices too couldn't it?  Oil has broken through a support level and might have to make it's way to somewhere between $65 and $66.

We've really had unseasonably warm weather so far.

Toronto

Does that mean we position for a bounce.  As it goes, I've been in AAPL puts for two months until now.  I saw your chart yesterday and was ready to go but...I'll position on a bounce...yes?

Nice clear chart - thank you.

Hmmm good hmmmmmbad?  AAPL is backtesting one year bear wedge

So we have the GDX/GLD crossed as of now - is it as of EOD that we need.  Also do we need confirmation with the 13 crossing over the 55?

I don't think Hill is saying anything differently than Matt and Steve.  It is bullish UNTIL (and the UNTIL is the operative word).  Where does this pull back or a subsequent pullback from higher highs take us?  Extremes always get worked off - it can't go on like this forever and he's not saying - buy this market in saying that it's bullish.  He's just observing the same thing we all have - that the trend has been up and until it decidely turns down the trend remains the same.

In an effort to improve my trading, I see that there is positive divergence on the 5 minute chart.    I sold my August puts around 11.30 and am waiting to reposition into September puts because the COMP is deteriorating and so is Apple.  What should I be waiting to see on the 5 minute?  The MACD turning down, the RS and 60 period stochastics turning down and the 8 crossing down through the 21 before buying?  Or see the positive divergence flattening out?