http://www.businessinsider.com/hayek-versus-keynes-a-hip-hop-battle-2010-1

this is from larry levin's Secrets of traders web site

2:03 p.m. EST

Bad numbers mean interest rates stay low.  Which means..................... go long!

Dear Investor,

The email you just received titled "My Predictions" was sent out without my approval. It was not my intention to say I told you so - that is not my style. Had I seen this email in advance it would not have been worded in the manner that it was.

I have always believed that my presentation in 2006 in front of the Western Regional Mortgage Bankers Association proves conclusively what Washington, Wall Street, and the main stream media do not want the public to know -- that the financial crisis was easily predictable by anyone with a solid understanding of economics.

When I originally posted this presentation to YouTube it was split into eight clips, and not nearly as many people viewed it as I had hoped. Now that I am a YouTube partner I was able to upload the entire presentation into one clip. If you have not had the opportunity to watch it, and you have an hour and fifteen minutes to spare, I think you will find it well worth your time. If you consider when this presentation was made, and the audience I was addressing, it is even more compelling.

Click hereto view the video.

I hope that despite its length, this video can widely circulate on the internet. To help achieve this goal, try to forward it to as many people as you can. Hopefully a number of the people who ultimately view it will reside in Connecticut, helping voters conclude that having a senator who warned about the crisis in advance is preferable to having one who played an integral role in creating it.

Best Regards,

Peter Schiff
President and Chief Global Strategist
Euro Pacific Capital

Agree with you. I think, in general, that most of us on the blog have been overly bearish, and are frozen in time, waiting for a pull-back that so far has not happened. This has influenced our bias and trading style. I believe the best way to deal with trading is to try to be risk neutral, not risk seeking where you blow out your cash, or risk averse where you can't get into a trade, or if you do, you exit way too soon. The market keeps going up, leaving most of us behind. If and when the  retracement arrives, it may not even get back to where we are today before it starts to go up again. As for comparisons to other times for analogies, I think this is not your grandaddies bear market!

Also, I keep seeing people talking about the Trend. We are definitley in a trend! I think some of the concepts for trend days can be extrapolated to larger trends- namely that you can throw oscillators out the window, and that one of the  primary tools to use should be moving averages. Using a 9-39 ema for the $spx would have essentially had you in the entire uptrend since July 13th. This also seems to have a similar effect on the Mechanical systems, which appartenlty don't  do too well in a trending market, as there is insufficient volatility.

Ha! Don't know how it can stay in that nose-bleed area for much longer.

Thought it would timely to repost a variation of this  chartshowing percent of stocks above their 50 day MA.

Matt,

Could you  (in one of your updates, or elsewhere) explain the significance of declining volume in a flag, why you look for it, and how it transforms into another leg up? Also, is the next large volume spike the trigger to get in, or is that too late, and how do you set the entry level?

Thanks

Agree Finviz is a useful free resource. To anyone interested in using Finviz, here is a short videothat give a brief introduction to it by Brian Shannon of Alphatrends.

Yeah, thought about that. The 5 steps seemed to fit nicely so went with it. Will see how it all plays.

60 Minute Oil futures trendfor the last 10 days since the high of $73.38 on June 29th

kingpin -intersting chart. Thanks for posting. I have it a bit different, but am glad to see your variation. See my chart attached.

By the way am trying to get a better way to post .png charts, so not sure if mine will show up. If not will post it later as it is late now.

June 30_09

For all the talk about “green shoots” in the financial media these days, one might mistake CNBC for HGTV. However, what many see as the first promising sprouts of economic recovery are, in reality, the artificially generated, short-term gains from the most massive dose of fertilizer (government stimulus) that the country has ever seen. Few talking heads on Wall Street or in Washington understand the damage that such a flood of chemicals will inflict on the long-term health of our economic soil.

The “green shoot” discussion centers on the less-than-horrific data that began to emerge a few months after the economic free fall of Q4:08. The statistics regarding unemployment, business spending, consumer confidence, and credit availability have all recovered somewhat. Many of these numbers are labeled “positive” merely because they're not declining as rapidly as they had before. In response to these perceived stirrings of health, the U.S .stock market has put in a strong rally.

But now, as the statistical trends are appearing to falter, many are questioning the significance of these “green shoots.” Since one of the greenest of shoots happens to be rising stock prices, a minor reversal in the current rally in itself could cause the rest of the garden to wilt in concert.

The observation that no one seems to be making is that the modest statistical improvement comes as a result of trillions of dollars of government stimulus spending. It would be impossible for such a program to not have such an effect. But artificial government stimuli are no more capable of creating lasting economic growth than green paint is capable of making a healthy lawn.

The question Euro Pacific investors should now be asking is whether our foreign stocks, many of which have rallied strongly off their 2008 lows, will decline when the rally in U.S. stocks reverses. Many of you may be tempted to lighten up on your positions now and look to reposition later at lower prices. As always, my preference is to stay the course.

First, the “green shoots” may take awhile to wither, i.e. recent stock market strength may continue for many more months. Even if another meaningful decline is already under way, my gut feeling is that foreign stocks will not fall as much as domestic stocks. In 2008, the decline in foreign stocks was far steeper than domestic stocks. Most investors now assume that this dynamic will repeat, should the downturn resume. I do not concur. I believe that the panic has already occurred, and the fever it sparked has passed. Going forward, fundamentals will be a bigger driver of stock price; and overseas, the fundamentals are still better.

More importantly, I do not expect another big rally in the dollar to accompany a selloff in stocks. That was last year's head fake, and I do not think investors will fall for it a second time. More likely, I think the dollar will fall in conjunction with stocks, particularly if accompanied by confirmation that the U.S recession is worsening. In fact, this time it might be dollar weakness that actually precipitates a decline in stocks, which will mitigate any share price declines for U.S. holders of non-dollar stocks.

Also, given how quickly stocks can turn around, as evidenced by the strength of the March to May rally, short-term market timing is a difficult game to win. My feeling is that the long-term risks of mistiming the markets outweigh the short-term risks of holding through a correction. In other words: we should concentrate on winning the war, not every battle. For that reason, I will be much more interested in buying into any weakness in foreign stocks and selling into any dollar strength, rather than looking to guard against those potential outcomes.

Far and away, investors' biggest concern should be the likelihood of further deterioration in the U.S. economy, and the probability of a sharp decline in the value of the dollar. Also, I believe foreign economies will not be affected in the way many now believe. As I have said many times before, a sharp decline in the value of the dollar and a significant reduction of foreign purchases of U.S. treasuries will spur, not inhibit, global growth. So while the waters may remain choppy for some time, the current is definitely still drifting in our direction.

Don,

I had no idea my CNBC appearance yesterday would become such an internet sensation.

Apparently that's what you get when you speak the truth on CNBC.

Or could it be that Rick Santelli and I finally agreed on something and went up against Steve LIESman!?

Whatever it is that caused all the buzz, you'll have to see it to believe it.

Click Below to watch Larry Levin's latest CNBC appearance...

Click Here to Watch Larry on CNBC


Best trades to you (my help will get you there),
Larry Levin
888.755.3846
312.235.2572
larry@secretsoftraders.com

Impressive. If you open a blog on Golf, I am in. Teach me how not to shank or Chili dip those 40 yard wedges. lol

GDX and a few TO Golds