Absolutely agree... me, being a guy who works all day, I have essentially missed 90% of the rally being focused and watching for each near term pullback (and there is another one about every 2 weeks) when the overall trend and targets were all much higher up....have watched this market both bleed and surge up now for 4 months.  Unfortunate.  Now watching the mid term far more and turning down the sound on the day to day.

    Guys, I understand your emotions,

    Posted by matt on 4th of Aug 2009 at 01:21 pm

    Guys, I understand your emotions, that's what trading does to you.  Technical Analysis is basically the analysis of emotions on a mass scale, greed and fear, don't fall prey to what we are analzying via tech analysis.  Anyway for Trading, just define what your objectives are and your time frame; ie 401K, swing trade, day trade.  When we look at charts intra day like the 15 and 30 min charts, those are for traders.  If you work a job and are trying to manage a 401K plan that you can only move once a month, then you have to ignore the shorter term analysis because you dont' have flexibity. 

    We gave targets of SPX 1010 (38% Fib) and even 1100 (50% Fib) back in Mar and Apr; the SPX has now almost hit the first major price target .  We even gave the time period for the rally as 3 - 6 months, but 6 months is a 38% time retracement so that was more likely and that appears to be playing out.  Here's the weekly SPX chart that I've had in all the updates since January of this year and from the March lows after I drew in the Fibs.  So yes we have looked for pullbacks along the way, but that's short term and for a 401K you just have to ignore that stuff.  Again define your time frame and that will help.  There are a few people here like Cspirit who put his 401K back in the market in March and held it, though I think he might be out now, not sure.

    Again don't worry about it, this is a good lesson, define your timeframe and objectives; are you here to play some swing trades, or are you trying to day trade, or are you not trading and only looking to manage 401K's, then you have to ignore the short term analysis. 

    Now, if this truely is a large bear market rally, then on the wave C down, there won't be much talk anymore about missing a rally etc.

    i n the future I'll have a longer term section on the website for you guys to follow.

    Matt, I exited my 401K at

    Posted by cspirit on 4th of Aug 2009 at 01:34 pm

    Matt,

    I exited my 401K at SPX 872 area from SPX 685. 

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