Posted by donkeyface on 28th of Jul 2023 at 10:06 am
These bears are like fruit flies, but worse, a 1 day life span.
I can't get over the enthusiasm. But in the present
moment, the market aint the economy and the economy isn't the
market... BUT they always eventually line up properly.
I mean just go buy some milk and come at me with good
inflation news. You can't.
Day is early though, so who knows. Could be a
liquidity grab above 4600 to head lower, trap some bulls..... idk.
I was expecting, not wanting, an inside day, but a
more than 50% retrace of yesterdays candle... ugggghhhhh
I TOTALLY AGREE THOUGH. I was so wanting some bearish
follow through and some clearly action, but I guess too many
people just like me wanted the same, we gotta have people on
the other side of our trade or this game doesn't exist.
Posted by timebandit on 28th of Jul 2023 at 10:50 am
From what I've been able to discern, this comes down to the Bank
of Japan announcement last night. I couldn't sleep and so was
listening to the meeting in Japanese and using Google Translate to
interpret (kidding!!! - I was following on twitter). If they had
come out more hawkish, the selloff would have had follow through.
Of course, that's just speculation. We'll never know (or we will
find out when inflation turns them from doves into hawks). Anyway,
the markets accelerated up when it was clear they were dovish.
yes Steve and I talked about it yesterday after the close - it
spooked the market (our bond market) and of course technically it
all lined up with the SPX opening right on that upper channel line
and the Dow Jones up 14 days in a row - so was logical for a
pullback there
remember topping is a process and sometimes a long one at that.
The emotion/psychology is different during rallies vs sell offs
-greed vs fear manisfest themselves differently. Sell offs tend to
be sharp and over quickly, not trending for long periods of time,
unlike topping where you get months and months of trends and dips
being bought.
topping is a process and generally you need sideways movement,
breaks in uptrend symmetry, and lower highs in order to flatten out
the slope of the moving averages, such as the 20, 50 etc.
Steve and I learned a long time ago - when the MA's have strong
positive slopes, and price is above the 9 EMA's, if you happen to
catch an index short (it's best to lock those gains in quickly once
a nice pullback (like yesterday occurs) vs thinking to yourself 'I
caught the top with a great price, I'm just going to hold it), 9
times out of 10 you will just give back all the profits or even
take a loss. Shorts are for hedges. Only after a break in symmetry
and lower high, with some flattening of the MA's, then you can give
that short more room
Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Jul 2023 at 01:07 pm
Like Matt was saying the other day, topping (in the indexes) is
often more of a process than bottoming. One thing that happened
yesterday is that structure got tweaked a bit and now we're putting
in more negative divergences on the middle time frames (e.g. the 2
hour). The longer time frames are starting to flatten
out...have to squint still to see divergences.
Posted by icecoldjones on 28th of Jul 2023 at 10:15 am
Good insights donkey and Steve! I just have a large short
position and I don't know whether to take all my losses (HUGE btw)
and move on or if I ride this out and hope the next downturn is
soon. I know I'm fighting the trend and I made a horrible decision
2 months back and now I'm eating it. I just need to follow the
systems here and stop anything I want to do.
Posted by donkeyface on 28th of Jul 2023 at 11:15 am
I've got 4609.25 on my chart like 10x.... my best guess is....
flush that out, then drop back to 4600 and let everyone make up
their minds again. But I scalp. And will likely let
that one go.
Posted by donkeyface on 28th of Jul 2023 at 12:06 pm
When you have to execute perfectly to get
+ 4.75pts.... it just aint for me.
life of a Scalper ðŸ¤¦â™‚ï¸ It's probably the top and
when I look in a hour it'll be at zero.... Also life of scalper.
LOL. Have great weekend BPT fam.
Posted by donkeyface on 28th of Jul 2023 at 12:19 pm
also just for context... anyone interested... here's the
2min with all the levels etc etc... and some custom
indicators
[the one up top shows how AAPL, MSFT, Adv/Dec, Weighted Adv/Dec
(top 7 sp7) & unweighted Adv/Dec (blue line) are doing relative
to current days open],
then the lower studies are just a conglomeration of all my
lessons on MACD and STOCHASTICS (this is only way I can stomach
stochastic, changed the scale to -100 to 100 and made ONE line avg
K/D)...
I was shorting off of
yesterday's London Close, seems to be a spot
for decent reactions lately, the goal was to get it back to
the
nyOPEN, but I gotta see more strength, less
stalling to stay in a counter trend trade. It stalled right
at my 4609.25
pWeekHigh / July High (until this week).
I felt so good yesterday
Posted by icecoldjones on 28th of Jul 2023 at 09:55 am
I felt so good yesterday afternoon and this morning just ripped my heart out!!!!!!
These bears are like fruit
Posted by donkeyface on 28th of Jul 2023 at 10:06 am
These bears are like fruit flies, but worse, a 1 day life span. I can't get over the enthusiasm. But in the present moment, the market aint the economy and the economy isn't the market... BUT they always eventually line up properly. I mean just go buy some milk and come at me with good inflation news. You can't.
Day is early though, so who knows. Could be a liquidity grab above 4600 to head lower, trap some bulls..... idk. I was expecting, not wanting, an inside day, but a more than 50% retrace of yesterdays candle... ugggghhhhh
I TOTALLY AGREE THOUGH. I was so wanting some bearish follow through and some clearly action, but I guess too many people just like me wanted the same, we gotta have people on the other side of our trade or this game doesn't exist.
From what I've been able
Posted by timebandit on 28th of Jul 2023 at 10:50 am
From what I've been able to discern, this comes down to the Bank of Japan announcement last night. I couldn't sleep and so was listening to the meeting in Japanese and using Google Translate to interpret (kidding!!! - I was following on twitter). If they had come out more hawkish, the selloff would have had follow through. Of course, that's just speculation. We'll never know (or we will find out when inflation turns them from doves into hawks). Anyway, the markets accelerated up when it was clear they were dovish.
yes Steve and I talked
Posted by matt on 28th of Jul 2023 at 10:54 am
yes Steve and I talked about it yesterday after the close - it spooked the market (our bond market) and of course technically it all lined up with the SPX opening right on that upper channel line and the Dow Jones up 14 days in a row - so was logical for a pullback there
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-panics-after-planted-story-boj-ycc-tweak-sends-stocks-tumbling-yields-and-yen
https://www.investing.com/news/economy/japanese-bond-yields-test-boj-ceiling-as-ycc-decision-looms-3136838
zerohedge.com
Market Panics After Planted Story Of BOJ YCC Tweak Sends Stocks Tumbling, Yields And Yen Soaring | ZeroHedge
Those furious there will be no record streak of 14 consecutive Dow Jones gains, please thank whoever at the Nikkei planted the story meant to send the yen and yields soaring....
remember topping is a process
Posted by matt on 28th of Jul 2023 at 10:40 am
remember topping is a process and sometimes a long one at that. The emotion/psychology is different during rallies vs sell offs -greed vs fear manisfest themselves differently. Sell offs tend to be sharp and over quickly, not trending for long periods of time, unlike topping where you get months and months of trends and dips being bought.
topping is a process and generally you need sideways movement, breaks in uptrend symmetry, and lower highs in order to flatten out the slope of the moving averages, such as the 20, 50 etc.
Steve and I learned a long time ago - when the MA's have strong positive slopes, and price is above the 9 EMA's, if you happen to catch an index short (it's best to lock those gains in quickly once a nice pullback (like yesterday occurs) vs thinking to yourself 'I caught the top with a great price, I'm just going to hold it), 9 times out of 10 you will just give back all the profits or even take a loss. Shorts are for hedges. Only after a break in symmetry and lower high, with some flattening of the MA's, then you can give that short more room
In current market, I consider
Posted by steveo on 28th of Jul 2023 at 12:58 pm
In current market, I consider all SPY shorts as a day trade, unless its a BPT system trade then I stay in (sometimes too long, ouch, don't do that)
Like Matt was saying the
Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Jul 2023 at 01:07 pm
Like Matt was saying the other day, topping (in the indexes) is often more of a process than bottoming. One thing that happened yesterday is that structure got tweaked a bit and now we're putting in more negative divergences on the middle time frames (e.g. the 2 hour). The longer time frames are starting to flatten out...have to squint still to see divergences.
check your inbox digi
Posted by been_trumped on 28th of Jul 2023 at 01:18 pm
check your inbox digi
I don't see anything in
Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Jul 2023 at 01:45 pm
I don't see anything in my inbox, but I sent you a message to reply to.
weird, mine shows in outbox
Posted by been_trumped on 28th of Jul 2023 at 01:49 pm
weird, mine shows in outbox sent, and i don't have anything in my inbox either. maybe my mail just doesn't work.
brilliant.... isn't it gonna be
Posted by donkeyface on 28th of Jul 2023 at 11:13 am
brilliant.... isn't it gonna be nuts if the monthly / quarterly chart puts in a massive (close to ATH) lower high?
Good insights donkey and Steve!
Posted by icecoldjones on 28th of Jul 2023 at 10:15 am
Good insights donkey and Steve! I just have a large short position and I don't know whether to take all my losses (HUGE btw) and move on or if I ride this out and hope the next downturn is soon. I know I'm fighting the trend and I made a horrible decision 2 months back and now I'm eating it. I just need to follow the systems here and stop anything I want to do.
Isn't it great to call
Posted by donkeyface on 28th of Jul 2023 at 11:12 am
Isn't it great to call someone donkey. .... We are back to the buy every 2 pt dip, AlBrooks, et al are loving it.
I've got 4609.25 on my
Posted by donkeyface on 28th of Jul 2023 at 11:15 am
I've got 4609.25 on my chart like 10x.... my best guess is.... flush that out, then drop back to 4600 and let everyone make up their minds again. But I scalp. And will likely let that one go.
When you have to execute
Posted by donkeyface on 28th of Jul 2023 at 12:06 pm
When you have to execute perfectly to get + 4.75pts.... it just aint for me. life of a Scalper ðŸ¤¦â™‚ï¸ It's probably the top and when I look in a hour it'll be at zero.... Also life of scalper. LOL. Have great weekend BPT fam.
also just for context... anyone
Posted by donkeyface on 28th of Jul 2023 at 12:19 pm
also just for context... anyone interested... here's the 2min with all the levels etc etc... and some custom indicators
[the one up top shows how AAPL, MSFT, Adv/Dec, Weighted Adv/Dec (top 7 sp7) & unweighted Adv/Dec (blue line) are doing relative to current days open],
then the lower studies are just a conglomeration of all my lessons on MACD and STOCHASTICS (this is only way I can stomach stochastic, changed the scale to -100 to 100 and made ONE line avg K/D)...
I was shorting off of yesterday's London Close, seems to be a spot for decent reactions lately, the goal was to get it back to the nyOPEN, but I gotta see more strength, less stalling to stay in a counter trend trade. It stalled right at my 4609.25 pWeekHigh / July High (until this week).
icecoldjones - in uptrends view
Posted by steve on 28th of Jul 2023 at 10:06 am
icecoldjones - in uptrends view shorts as scalps/hedges. You are fighting the trend otherwise - until evidence changes